Kansas and Climate Change Johan Feddema & Nate Brunsell, KU Department of Geography Presentation to...
-
Upload
stewart-andrews -
Category
Documents
-
view
217 -
download
0
Transcript of Kansas and Climate Change Johan Feddema & Nate Brunsell, KU Department of Geography Presentation to...
Kansas and Climate ChangeJohan Feddema & Nate Brunsell,
KU Department of Geography
Presentation to the Kansas Energy Council’s
MGA Committee, Feb. 21, 2008
What is Climate Science
What is Climate Science• Understanding of the movement of energy into,
through, and out of the Earth System
• Based on physics through the processes of:• Electromagnetic radiation
• Convective heating of the Atmosphere (sensible heat)
• Convective transport of water vapor
Background: The Climate System
Source: IPCC 2007
So what are we worried about?
Humans develop as species
{19001958
2005
Ice Age
Present
Future?
1900
Rate = +0.7 ºC 100yrs
0.7 ºC
100 years
Rate ≈ +0.036 ºC 100yrs5-8 ºC
18,000 years
Rate – Depends on: response time? feed backs?
Last Glacial Maximum
Domestication of plants and animals
Industrial revolution begins
Climate Simulation: How good are the models?
Raupach et al., PNAS, 2007
Climate projections: What is to come?
Climate change experiments from 16 groups (11 countries) and 23 models collected at PCMDI (over 31 terabytes of model data)
Committed warming averages 0.1°C per decade for the first two decades of the 21st century; across all scenarios, the average warming is 0.2°C per decade for that time period (recent observed trend 0.2°C per decade)
IPCC Ch. 10, Fig. 10.4, TS-32
Anomalies
relative
to 1980-99
Climate projections: Global Temperature
Abrupt Transitions in the Summer Sea Ice
ObservationsSimulated5-year running mean
• Gradual forcing results in abrupt Sept ice decrease
• Extent decreases from 70 to 20% coverage in 10 years.
“Abrupt”transition
Impacts of Climate Change – Sea Ice Extent
SourcesNSIDCNCAR
Simulated
Observed
Greenland
Russia
Scandinavia
Alaska
Canada
Alaska
Greenland
Russia
+ 2 C all months+ 0% Precipitation
D = 95S = 246
+ 4 C all months+ 0% Precipitation
D =151S = 188
+ 1.5 C all months+ 5% Precipitation
D = 69S = 302Present Day Normal D = 47
S = 304
2050
Kansas Climate projections
Eastern Kansas (37N, 95W)
2100+ 3 C all months+ 5% Precipitation
D =107S = 255
Precipitation
Potential Evapotranspiration
D = Annual Deficit (mm)S = Annual Surplus (mm)
Source: IPCC 2007J. Feddema University of Kansas
IPCC A1B Scenario Middle of the road Scenario
3.5ºC (6.3ºF) annual T increase
3% annual P increase (summer -3% P)
+ 1.5 C all months+ 5% Precipitation
D = 383S = 0
2050
Kansas Climate projectionsD = Annual Deficit (mm)S = Annual Surplus (mm)
Western Kansas (37N, 95W)
2100
+ 2 C all months+ 0% Precipitation
D = 433S = 0
+ 3 C all months+ 5% Precipitation
D =463S = 0
+ 4 C all months+ 0% Precipitation
D =540S = 0
Source: IPCC 2007J. Feddema University of Kansas
Precipitation
Potential Evapotranspiration
D = 330S = 0
IPCC A1B Scenario Middle of the road Scenario
3.5ºC (6.3ºF) annual T increase
3% annual P increase (summer -3% P)
QUESTIONS?
CLIMATE SYSTEM
Mechanisms of Climate Change
What Causes Climate to Change• Solar variation (input to the system)• How energy travels through and is partitioned
in the atmosphere (Greenhouse Effect)• How energy is partitioned at the surface• Storage and release of energy in various
components of the earth system (e.g. Oceans)
Background: Human Climate Interactions
Human impacts on the climate system
Agriculture
Grazing
Natural Vegetation?
Urban
De/Re-forestationSoil
Degradation
Atmospheric Composition
Solar Variation
Keven Trenberth, NCAR
How reliable are climate models
z
342
324
390
16540
235
30
0
7824
67
107
30
77
168
Surface Energy Balance: 168 = 390 – 324 + 24 + 78
Top of Atmosphere Energy Balance: 342 – 107 = 235
Sensible Heat
Latent Heat
Evapo-transpiration
Conduction
Long-wave Radiationfrom Clouds
Long-wave Radiationfrom Atmosphere
Long-wave RadiationAtmospheric Window
Longwave RadiationAbsorbed by Atmosphere
Longwave RadiationEmmited by Surface
Long-wave RadiationEmitted byAtmosphere
350
Outgoing Long-wave Radiation
Thermal heating
IncomingSolar Radiation
Shortwave
ReflectedShortwave radiation
by Clouds Aerosols
and Gases
ReflectedShortwave radiation
by Surface
AbsorbedShortwave radiation
by Surface
AbsorbedShortwave radiation
by Atmosphere
ReflectedShortwave radiation
Global Average Energy Balance
Atmosphere Energy Balance:67 + 350 + 24 + 78 = 324 + 165 + 30
z
342
324
390
16540
235
30
0
7824
67
107
30
77
168
Surface Energy Balance: 168 – 324 = 390 + 24 + 78 + 0
Top of Atmosphere Energy Balance: 342 – 107 = 235
Sensible Heat
Latent Heat
Evapo-transpiration
Conduction
Long-wave Radiationfrom Clouds
Long-wave Radiationfrom Atmosphere
Long-wave RadiationAtmospheric Window
Longwave RadiationAbsorbed by Atmosphere
Longwave RadiationEmmited by Surface
Long-wave RadiationEmitted byAtmosphere
350
Outgoing Long-wave Radiation
Thermal heating
IncomingSolar Radiation
Shortwave
ReflectedShortwave radiation
by Clouds Aerosols
and Gases
ReflectedShortwave radiation
by Surface
AbsorbedShortwave radiation
by Surface
AbsorbedShortwave radiation
by Atmosphere
ReflectedShortwave radiation
Global Average Energy Balance
39
234
351 2
1
166
326
79
391
Atmosphere Energy Balance:67 + 350 + 24 + 78 = 324 + 165 + 30
235
352
16679 326352
79391326
Effects of CO2 on Energy Balance
Sources:Globalwarmingart.com www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Atmospheric_Transmission_png Gordley et al. (1994). J. .Quant. Spect. & Rad. Trans. 52 (5). Kiehl and Trenberth (1997) Bull. Am. Meteor. Assoc. 78. Lashof (1989). Climatic Change 14 (3): 213-242. Rothman et al. (2004). J. .Quant. Spect. & Rad. Trans. 96. Peixoto and Oort (1992). Physics of Climate. Springer
Kansas Historical Records
Source: IPCC 2007
Global Climate over the last century
Source: IPCC 2007
Figure 10.18
Figure 10.19
Figure 11.12
How to lie with Statistics (or maps)
1977 to 2007
Annual 1977 - 2007 Average = 54.56 degF Annual 1977 - 2007 Trend = 0.53 degF / Decade
1930 to 2007Annual 1930 - 2007 Average = 54.55 degF Annual 1930 - 2007 Trend = -0.04 degF / Decade
Kansas Temperature Changes
SourceNational Climate Data Centerhttp://climvis.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/cag3/hr-display3.pl
1895 to 2007Annual 1895 - 2007 Average = 54.27 degF Annual 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.09 degF / Decade
Winter (Dec-Feb) 1896 - 2007 Average = 31.54 degF Winter (Dec-Feb) 1896 - 2007 Trend = 0.21 degF / Decade
Summer (Jun-Aug) 1895 - 2007 Average = 76.50 degF Summer (Jun-Aug) 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.04 degF / Decade
Fall (Sep-Nov) 1895 - 2007 Average = 55.87 degF Fall (Sep-Nov) 1895 - 2007 Trend = -0.04 degF / Decade
Spring (Mar-May) 1895 - 2007 Average = 53.23 degF Spring (Mar-May) 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.12 degF / Decade
SourceNational Climate Data Centerhttp://climvis.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/cag3/hr-display3.pl
Spring
WinterFall
Summer
Kansas Temperature Changes: Seasonal
Annual 1895 - 2007 Average = 27.50 Inches Annual 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.22 Inches / Decade
Annual 1930 - 2007 Average = 27.62 Inches Annual 1930 - 2007 Trend = 0.56 Inches / Decade
Annual 1977 - 2007 Average = 28.96 Inches Annual 1977 - 2007 Trend = 0.32 Inches / Decade
Kansas Precipitation Changes
SourceNational Climate Data Centerhttp://climvis.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/cag3/hr-display3.pl
1895-2007
1930-2007
1977-2007
Winter (Dec-Feb) 1896 - 2007 Average = 2.53 Inches Winter (Dec-Feb) 1896 - 2007 Trend = 0.02 Inches / Decade
Fall (Sep-Nov) 1895 - 2007 Average = 6.18 Inches Fall (Sep-Nov) 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.02 Inches / Decade
Summer (Jun-Aug) 1895 - 2007 Average = 10.64 Inches Summer (Jun-Aug) 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.05 Inches / Decade
Spring (Mar-May) 1895 - 2007 Average = 8.14 Inches Spring (Mar-May) 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.12 Inches / Decade
SourceNational Climate Data Centerhttp://climvis.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/cag3/hr-display3.pl
Spring
WinterFall
Summer
Kansas Precipitation Changes: Seasonal
HISTORICAL FORCINGS
Climate Science
How can we know climate is changing and what is causing it?• Observations
• Surface observation networks (weather stations etc)• Balloon observations • Satellites• Geologic and other evidence
• Use models to simulate processes and evaluate the combinations of independent factors driving climate change
• This is expensive and requires national/international level resources • Form the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
• Contributions from over 2500 scientists from around the world• 23 Global Climate Models (GCMs) (+ many more specialized models)• Some of the worlds fastest supercomputers (Earth Simulator)
• IPCC has produced 4 reports freely available at (www.ipcc.ch)• 1990, 1995, 2001 and 2007• Reports are a summary of the state of knowledge from reviewed literature
Sources:Globawarmingart.com
www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Sunspot_Numbers_png Hoyt and Schatten (1998a) Solar Physics 179: 189-219. Hoyt, and Schatten (1998b) Solar Physics 181: 491-512. Stott et al. (2003) Journal of Climate 16: 4079-4093.
Recent Climate Variable Trends: Observations
Sources:Globawarmingart.com www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Short_Instrumental_Temperature_Record_png Brohan, et al. (2006) J. Geophaysical Research 111: D12106Luo etal. (2002 J Clim 15: 2806-2820
Sources:Globawarmingart.com www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Solar_Cycle_Variations_png Irradiance:/www.pmodwrc.ch/pmod.php?topic=tsi/composite/SolarConstant International sunspot number:/www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/SOLAR/ftpsunspotnumber.html Flare index: www.koeri.boun.edu.tr/astronomy/readme.html 10.7cm radio flux: www.drao-ofr.hia-iha.nrc-cnrc.gc.ca/icarus/www/sol_home.shtml
QUESTIONS?
Why are climate Scientists concerned?
What is the big deal with Global Warming?• We are observing human induced changes in the
system that we know to affect climate.• Atmospheric composition (CO2, Methane, aerosols, etc.)
• Land cover change that affects CO2 and energy partitioning
• We are seeing changes in the climate and related systems that suggest we are in a transition
• Temperature records
• Sea ice records
• Biological systems
700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0Age (yr BP)
400
500
600
700
800
CH
4 (p
pb
v)
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
(
°C)
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
CO
2 (p
pm
v)
Climate and Greenhouse Gases during the last 650 Kyrs
375 ppm v
1700 ppbv
EPIC A D om e CInderm uehle et a l (subm itted)EP IC A pro ject m em bers (2004)Spahni et a l (subm itted)
VostokPépin e t a l ( 2001)Petit e t a l (1999)D elm otte et a l (2004)
Higher CO2 in the Past – Absolutely!
Permian Crash
Extinction ofDinosaurs
Terrestrial plants
But it was a different world
SourcesGlobalwarmingart.com www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Phanerozoic_Carbon_Dioxide_png
Bergman etaal (2004). American Journal of Science 301: 182-204. Berner and Kothavala (2001). American Journal of Science 304: 397–437. Gradstein, FM and JG Ogg (1996). Episodes 19: 3-5. Gradsteinet al. (2005). A geologic time scale 2004. Camb. Univ. PressRothman (2001) Proc. of the Nat. Academy of Sciences 99 (7): 4167-4171. Royer, et al. (2004) GSA Today www.scotese.com
MODEL VALIDATION
Timeline of Climate Model Development
T. Barnett and D. Pierce of SIO
MODEL PROJECTIONS?
Climate Change Attribution
Climate Change Scenarios:
At any point in time, we are committed to additional warming and sea level rise from the radiative forcing already in the system.
Warming stabilizes after several decades, but sea level from thermal expansion continues to rise for centuries.
Each emission scenario has a warming impact.
(Meehl et al., 2005: How much more warming and sea level rise? Science, 307, 1769-1772)
BACKGROUNDS STATISTICS
Regional sources of emissions
Greenhouse gas sources