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Transcript of Justus-Liebig-University Giessen Institute of Landscape Ecoology and Resources Management Martin...
Justus-Liebig-University Giessen Institute of Landscape Ecoology
and Resources Management
Martin Bach
Assessment of agricultural nitrogen balances for
municipalities – Example Baden-Wuerttemberg
EEA Agri-water Expert meeting, Copenhagen, 21-22 Feb 2005
Institute of Landscape Ecology and Resources Management
EU, OECD: Agri-sustainability indicator - environmental pressures (water, atmosphere) - waste of resources
Effectiveness of policies: EU Nitrate Directive, national action programmes
Verification of supra-national treaties, e.g. OSPARCOM
Sustainability Strategy Program of the German Gouvernment: DUX-Indicator (‚German Environment Index‘) „Trend of the national nitrogen surplus“
Component of „National Gross Environmental Budget“ (UGR, Umwelt- ökonomische Gesamtrechnung), indicating the external costs of nitrogen losses into air, terrestrial ecosystems, surface waters, groundwater, sea
WFD implementation: source appointment, prediction of efficiency of reduction measures
Farm level: Optimization of N-management (tools e.g.: EMA in the UK; REPRO, QSL in Germany)
Usage of ‚nitrogen balance surplus‘
Institute of Landscape Ecology and Resources Management
„Best available indicator“ for water quality eutrophication by non-point source N losses
e.g. Modelling approaches of EUROHARP models,especially MONERIS
WFD: ‚10 km² basin units‘
spatially differentiated calculation of N surplus
max resolution of ag-census based N balance
Germany: municipalities (EU LAU level 2)
Nitrogen soil surface surplus in the WFD context
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Problems
Lack of data (data secrecy)
Estimation of N mineral fertilizing quantities
Ag-census based calculationof nitrogen soil surface surplus
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Missing data of the Agricultural Census
Background
Data secrecy policy: a statistical data won‘t be published when based on three or less individual values
Replacement
by estimated figures: missing data recalculted as thedifference between „sum over a county“ and „sum over all muncipalities with published data“
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Missing data of the Agricultural Census- Crop acreage
Crop (acreage) No. of missing data
Fraction of municipalities*
Missing quantity% of state total
Agricultural land total 9 0,8 % 0,1 %
Arable land 31 1,4 % 0,1 %
Pasture 16 26,6 % 0,1 %
Orchards 295 n.d. 2,3 %
Vineyards n.d. 0,1 % 2,9 %
Wheat 53 4,8 % 0,1 %
Barley 117 10,5 % 0,7 %
Legumes 326 29,3 % 12,6 %
Potatoes 139 12,5 % 1,9 %
Sugar beet 143 12,9 % 4,0 %
Fodder maise 163 14,7 % 1,7%
Oilseed rape 232 20,9 % 2,8 %
Vegetable 340 30,6 % 12,1 %
*) n = 1112 municipalities
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Livestock (heads) No. of missing data
Fraction of municipalities*
Missing quantity % of state total
Bovines total 113 10,2 % 0,6 %
- therefore cows 172 15,5 % 1,4 %
Pigs total 235 21,2 % 2,4 %
- therefore souws 339 30,5 % 7,6 %
Sheep 442 39,8 % 32,1 %
Poltry 284 25,6 % 42,1 %
*) n = 1112 municipalities
Missing data of the Agricultural Census- Livestock
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„farmer‘s N fertilization scheme“:
N plant demand = N mineral fertilization + N organic fertilizer*efficiency factor + other N supply
N plant demand: crop specific N demand for optimal harvest yield (table values)
N organic fertilizing: N supply to the field with farm produced manure; N supply = N excretion of livestock minus volatilzation losses
Efficiency factor: fraction of N in manure which is availabe for the field crop, according to farmers fertilization calculation
Other N supply: N-fixation by legumes, secondary organic fertilizers
Estimation approch of nitrogen mineral fertilization
N mineral fertilization = N plant demand – N organic fertilizer*efficiency factor – other N supply
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Estimation approach of nitrogen mineral fertilization
„Validation“ of the assessment:
Estimated N mineral fertilizer amounts summed up over all crops and all counties in Germany mineral fertilizer consumption of agriculture in total (census based)
Best calibration with an efficiency factor = 36 % (average Germany 1998/2000).
Figures (kg N/ha AA, average Germany 1998/2000):
plant demand – organic fertilizer*efficiency factor – other supply = mineral fertilizer
144 – 53 * 0,36 – 15 = 110
used for calculation of mineral fertilizing of individual municipalities
Farmers do not accounted for 64 % of N in their manure (= potential losses when planning crop fertilization schemes)
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31 - 49
50 - 69
70 - 89
90 - 109
110 - 129
130 - 177
Gemeindefr. Geb.
k. Angabe (LF=0)
Bodensee
Überschuss Flächenbilanz kg N/ha LF
Nitrogen soil surface surplus kg N/ha AA
no agriculture
no data
Lake Contance
Nitrogen surplus
Results forMunicipalities* Baden-Wuerttemberg 1999
*) EU LAU level 2, NUTS 5
Institute of Landscape Ecology and Resources Management
Quality check of nitrogen soil surface surplus results
Nit
rog
en s
urp
lus
bas
ed o
n
Ag
ricu
ltu
ral
Cen
sus
(kg
N/h
a A
A)
40 80 120 160 20040
80
120
160
200
1 : 1-Line
r² = 0,45
Nitrogen surplus acc. to empirical data (kg N/ha AA)
Comparison of Ag-Census based vs. empirical N budgets (mainly farm based data)
Database: Literature review, 8 studies with together 32 municipalities (in 5 German states)(Bach et al.,1996)
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<= 40 % 41 - 60 % 61 - 80 % 81 - 125 %126 - 150 % > 150 %
Baden-Wuerttemberg: NO3-conc. in aquifers measured vs. modelled
Source: J. Ruf, Environment Agency Baden-Wuerttemberg, 2004
Groundwater NO3-concentration
Relationmeasurement / model (%)
Institute of Landscape Ecology and Resources Management
Assessment of nitrogen balances for municipalities yields reasonable, quantitative figures with high spatially resolution
Results are an operational tool for the WFD status reports (‚at risk‘ vs. ‘not at risk‘; source apportionment)
But:
Farm-gate balances are methodologically more precise and the results indicate the problem closer to its origin (farms with huge livestock density)
Outlook: Prediction of effectiveness (and efficiency) of nitrogen loss reduction measures in ag production systems needs process- oriented nitrogen models (e.g. SWAT, DNDC and others) - ‚nitrogen surplus‘ is not sufficient for this purpose.
Resume
Institute of Landscape Ecology and Resources Management
Institute of Landscape Ecology and Resources Management
Thank you for your attention!
You are a great audience!
Institute of Landscape Ecology and Resources Management
• Groundwater • Tile drainage • Erosion • Surface runoff • WWTP • Urbans areas • Atmospheric deposition
Source: Landesanstalt fuer Umwelt-schutz Baden-Württemberg, 2000
Total Nitrogen emissions from:
MONERIS (Behrendt et al., 1999)
Results Baden-Wuerttemberg
Institute of Landscape Ecology and Resources Management
Balance PositionNational
(farm-gate) balance
Soil surface (crop production)
balancekg N/hectare AA
Mineral (chemical) fertilizier +109 +109
Secondary organic fertilizer (sewage sludge, compost) + 4 + 4
Imported fodder + 22
Fodder from domestic processing + 14
Organic fertilizing (manure) + 50
Atmospheric deposition (netto) NH3-deposition on ag area
+ 10 + 10+ 12
Legume nitrogen fixation + 11 + 11
Market export of crop products - 35
Market export of livestock products - 19
Harvest withdrawal -121
Balance surplus = 117 = 75
Nitrogen balance of German agriculture 2000
Institute of Landscape Ecology and Resources Management
Wasserschutz-gebietszonen
WSG-ZonenZone IZone IIZone IIIZone IIIAZone IIIB
Landnutzung
N-Saldo
Hydrogeolog.Einheiten
Boden (NAG),Niederschlag
Bsp. Hessen: Auswertung WSG
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Schätzung NO3-Konz. in GW-Messstellen Regressionsansatz
log (CNO3) = a0 + a1*Wald% + a2*Siedl% + a3*Grünl%
+ a4*(Acker%*N-Saldo) + a5*Tiefe + a6*SWS
CNO3 = Mittlere Nitratkonz. des Rohwassers (mg NO3/l)
Wald% = Anteil des Waldes an der Gesamtfläche (%)
Grünl% = Anteil des Grünlands an der Gesamtfläche (%) Siedl% = Anteil der Siedlung an der Gesamtfläche (%) Acker%*N-Saldo = Produkt aus Ackerlandanteil und mittlerem
N-Bilanzüberschuss
Tiefe = Mittlere Rohwasserentnahmetiefe (m)
SWS = Geschätzte mittlere Sickerwasserspende (mm/a)
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Bsp. Hessen: Regressionsgleichung - Brunnen
Modellschritt r2 Korrigiertes r2
1. Wald% ,259 ,258
2. Grünl% ,341 ,339
3. Tiefe ,397 ,395
4. SWS ,418 ,415
Alle Brunnen-Messstellen (Hessen gesamt), n = 811
log (CNO3) = 1,964 – 7,04E-03*Wald% – 4,15E-03*Grünl%
– 2,43E-03*Tiefe – 6,19E-04*SWS
NO3-Konz. (mg/l) (berechnet)
NO
3-K
on
z . (
mg
/l ) (
ge m
esse
n)
0
25
50
75
100
0 25 50 75 100
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Einheit: Nordhessisches Buntsandsteingebiet , n = 82
log (CNO3) = 1,889 – 8,57E-03*Wald% – 5,97E-04*SWS
SQS r2 Korrigiertes r2
Wald% ,697 ,694
SWS ,716 ,709
NO3-Konz. (mg/l) (berechnet)
NO
3-K
on
z . (
mg
/l ) (
ge m
esse
n)
0
25
50
75
100
0 25 50 75 100
Bsp. Hessen: Regressionsgleichung - Quellen (‚SQS‘)
Institute of Landscape Ecology and Resources Management
Hydrogeologische
GroßeinheitenBrunnen Quellen (SQS)
n r2 n r2
Hessen gesamt 811 ,415 1057 ,406
Nordhessisches Buntsandsteingebiet 91 ,569 82 ,709
Niederh. Senke und Röt-Muschelkalk 25 ,607 43 ,469
Rheinisches Schiefergebirge 211 ,329 276 ,474
Basaltgebiete 138 ,358 83 ,367
Osthessisches Buntsandstein-Gebiet 192 ,424 228 ,552
Quartär und Tertiär des Untermain 49 ,327 7 n.s.
Kristallin und Rotliegendes 71 ,274 238 ,280
Quartär des Oberrheingrabens 12 n.s. 20 n.s.
Buntsandstein-Gebiet des Odenwaldes 22 ,560 80 ,423
Bsp. Hessen: Ergebnisse (r²)
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0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0
c(NO3) im Sickerwasser (berechnet)
Den
itrifi
katio
ns-
Rat
e
Bsp. Baden-Württemberg:Berechnete Denitrifikationsraten
Quelle: J. Ruf, LfU Baden-Württemberg, 2003
Modellberechnung*
Messung Grundwasserleiter
Kluftgrundwasser Karst Sonstige
*) Denitrifikationsrate = f{N-Überschuss LF, N-Deposition Wald, Nutzungsanteile, Sickerwassermenge, c(NO3)-GW gemess. }
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1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000
50
100
150
0
50
100
150
National balance („farm gate“) Soil surface balance
Nit
rog
en
su
rplu
s (
kg
N/h
a A
A)
Nitrogen balance surplus Germany 1950 to 2002*
*) 2002: preliminary results
Institute of Landscape Ecology and Resources Management
Nitrogen Surplus- Soil surface balance -
of the AgriculturalArea (AA) 1999
- Germany, NUTS 3 level (counties) -
21 - 50
51 - 80
81 - 110
111 - 150
151 - 200
201 - 260
kg N / hectare AA
Institute of Landscape Ecology and Resources Management
Nitrogen Surplusrelated to the total land area of
the counties (all land uses*) 1999
- Germany, NUTS 3 level (counties) -
*) AA: N soil surface surplus of the agricultural land; other uses (forest; urban and traffic areas): 5 kg N/ha N surplus
kg N / hectare total area
5 - 20
21 - 50
51 - 80
81 - 110
111 - 150
151 - 200
201 - 210
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Überschuss Stickstoff-Flächenbilanz
N-Bilanzüberschuss Baden-Württemberg MONERIS Ergebnisse (Behrendt et al.)
Quelle: Landesanstalt für Umwelt-schutz Baden-Württemberg, 2000
<= 70 kg kg N/ha
71 – 80 kg N/ha
81 – 90 kg N/ha
91 – 100 kg N/ha
101 – 110 kg N/ha
111 – 120 kg N/ha
121 – 130 kg N/ha
>130 kg N/ha
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Stickstoff-FlächenbilanzüberschussLandwirtschaft (Bach / 1995)
Stickstoff-HoftorbilanzüberschussLandwirtschaft (Zeddies / 2001)
Nährstoffbilanzierung Baden-Württemberg- MONERIS Baden-Württemberg -
Quelle: LfU – Landesanstalt für Umweltschutz Baden-Württemberg – Sachgeb. 41.1
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Nährstoffbilanzierung Baden-Württemberg- MONERIS Baden-Württemberg -
Quelle: LfU – Landesanstalt für Umweltschutz Baden-Württemberg– Sachgeb. 41.1
Gesamte spezifische Stickstoff-Emissionen nach MONERIS:
• Grundwasser • Drainagen • Erosion • Abschwemmung • Kläranlagen • Urbane Flächen • Atmosphär. Deposition
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Überschuss derStickstoff-
Flächenbilanz der Gemeinden in Hessen 1999
Bach und Frede (2002)
kg N / ha LF
20 - 40 41 - 60 61 - 80 81 - 100101 - 115115 - 130
Institute of Landscape Ecology and Resources Management
EU, OECD: Agri-sustainability indicator - environmental pressures (water, atmosphere) - waste of resources
Effectiveness of policies: EU Nitrate Directive, national action programmes
Verification of supra-national treaties, e.g. OSPARCOM
Sustainability Strategy Program of the German Gouvernment: DUX-Indicator (‚German Environment Index‘) „Trend of the national nitrogen surplus“
Component of „National Gross Environmental Budget“ (UGR, Umwelt- ökonomische Gesamtrechnung), indicating the external costs of nitrogen losses into air, terrestrial ecosystems, surface waters, groundwater, sea
WFD implementation: source appointment, prediction of efficiency of reduction measures
Farm level: Optimization of N-management (tools e.g.: EMA in the UK; REPRO, QSL in Germany)
Usage of ‚nitrogen balance surplus‘