Closing WisconsinExcellence Gaps

Jonathan PluckerOctober 8, 2014WATG

OverviewThe 21st CenturyExcellence in the U.S. and Other CountriesExcellence Gaps

Talent on the Sidelines

21st Century SkillsPovertyImplications and InterventionsQ&A

THE 21ST CENTURY

Increasing globalization… although not close to it yet

Increasing levels and sophistication of technology… for good and evil

Return to two major superpowersDeveloping countries nearing end of that processProbably more economic equality among countries, less within countries.Immigration/migration patterns are changing.

The 21st Century …

… is clearly proving to be a brave new world where skills and talents that previously helped us achieve success need to be rethought.

Who Gets U.S. Patents?

20132010

20072004

20011998

19951992

19891986

19831980

19771974

19711968

19650

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

Utility Patent Grants, U.S. Origin Utility Patent Grants, Foreign Origin

It’s All About the Pipeline

“The success of the United States in the 21st century – its wealth and welfare – will depend on the ideas and skills of its population. These have always been the Nation’s most important assets.” (p. v)

“Despite our historical record of achievement, the United States now lags behind other nations in STEM education at the elementary and secondary levels. … On the [NAEP], less than one-third of U.S. eighth graders show proficiency in mathematics and science.” (p. v)

President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST), 2010, Prepare and Inspire: K-12 Education in Science, Technology, Engineering and Math (STEM) for America’s Future

2009 PISA Results, Overall RanksReading Mathematics Science

Shanghai – 1 Shanghai – 1 Shanghai – 1

South Korea – 2 Singapore – 2 Finland – 2

Finland – 3 South Korea – 4 Singapore – 4

Singapore - 5 Taiwan – 5 Japan – 5

Canada – 6 Finland – 6 South Korea – 6

Japan – 8 Japan – 9 Canada – 8

US – 17 Canada – 10 Taiwan – 12

Germany – 20 Germany – 16 Germany – 13

France – 22 France – 22 UK – 16

Taiwan – 23 UK – 28 US – 23UK – 25 US – 31 France - 27

2012 PISA Results, Overall RanksNo statistically significant differences from 2009.U.S. % high achieving students lower than OECD average in math, roughly similar in science and reading.Of participating states, MA and CT students performed well, FL students did not.

Recent NASA ReportHistorical studies of civilizationsCivilizations marked by wealth inequality, overconsumption, and rapid population growth eventually collapsed.“Much like in the movies, though, NASA has a way to save the day - by reducing consumption, redistributing resources and slowing population growth. No problem then.”

Ozymandias.com

EXCELLENCE IN THE U.S. AND OTHER COUNTRIES

Percent of Advanced Scores (625+) on TIMSS Math Assessments

Percent of Advanced Scores (625+) on TIMSS Science Assessments

Percent of Advanced Scores (625+) on TIMSS Grade 4 Reading Assessment

Percent of Students Scoring Advanced on 2011 NAEP Grade 4 Math

Percent of Students Scoring Advanced on 2011 NAEP Grade 8 Math

Percent of Students Scoring Advanced on 2011 NAEP Grade 4 Reading

Percent of Students Scoring Advanced on 2011 NAEP Grade 8 Reading

But then where does our talent come from?

Why Excellence Gaps?Advocacy efforts traditionally require enormous amounts of time to maintain the status quo, let alone gain ground.We perceived a need to change the traditional message: These kids have special needs.That message works with only a small proportion of policymakers and educational leaders.

Minimum Competency vs. Excellence Gaps by State

Blue: Minimum competency gapMaroon: Excellence gap

Talent on theSidelines Results

http://cepa.uconn.edu/mindthegap

Minimum Achievementand Excellence Gaps

Math Reading Grade 4 Grade 8 Grade 12 Grade 4 Grade 8 Grade 12

1996 2.2 3.7 2.0 1998 7.1 2.6 5.6 2000 2.5 4.7 2.4 6.9 2002 7.1 2.8 4.5 2003 3.9 5.4 7.7 3.2 2005 5.0 6.0 2.2 7.5 3.0 4.6 2007 5.6 7.0 7.9 2.8 2009 5.9 7.9 2.7 7.7 2.8 5.3 2011 6.7 8.3 8.0 3.4

NAEP % Advanced Reading Grade 4 - Race/Ethnicity

NAEP % Advanced Reading Grade 8 - Race/Ethnicity

NAEP % Advanced Math Grade 4 - Race/Ethnicity

NAEP % Advanced Math Grade 8 - Race/Ethnicity

22.3

NAEP % Advanced Math Grade 4 - SES

NAEP % Advanced Math Grade 8 - SES

How is Wisconsin doing?

Grade 4 NAEP Reading by Race

White Black Hispanic0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

200320072011

Perc

ent A

dvan

ced

Grade 8 NAEP Reading by Race

White Black Hispanic0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

200320072011

Perc

ent A

dvan

ced

Grade 4 NAEP Math by Race

White Black Hispanic0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

200320072011

Perc

ent A

dvan

ced

Grade 8 NAEP Math by Race

White Black Hispanic0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

200320072011

Perc

ent A

dvan

ced

Grade 4 Reading by Lunch Status

Full price Reduced/free0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

200320072011

Perc

ent A

dvan

ced

Grade 8 Reading by Lunch Status

Full price Reduced/free0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

200320072011

Perc

ent A

dvan

ced

Grade 4 NAEP Math by Lunch Status

Full price Reduced/free0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

200320072011

Perc

ent A

dvan

ced

Grade 8 NAEP Math by Lunch Status

Full price Reduced/free0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

200320072011

Perc

ent A

dvan

ced

But why not other subjects?

… because math and reading look better.

Four Best Indicatorsof Advanced Achievement?

MathematicsScienceWritingCivics

What About Other 21st Century Skills?

Growing acknowledgement that other skills are necessary and should be the focus of education.Common Core assessments may paradoxically turn the assessment/student outcomes tide.Several models:

21st century learningHewlett Fdn: Deeper learningNRC: Cognitive, Interpersonal, IntrapersonalP21: Creativity, Critical Thinking, Communication, Collaboration

Partnership for 21st Century Skills

P21.org

But …… assessment of 21CS much harder than anticipatedRecent OSTP meeting:

Need better definitions, interventions, and assessments

For example:Creativity: Within reachCritical Thinking: Conceptual issuesCollaboration: ???Communication: ???

Poverty

Poverty, Poverty, Poverty

Correlates of Poverty

nutrition

risky personal behaviors

physical inactivity

violenceone- or no-parent homes

substance abuse

lack of educational opportunities

lack of economicopportunities

“tyranny of low expectations”lower aspirations

unrealistic expectations for the future weak political base

poor educational facilities

underqualified teachers

unqualified teachers

underqualified educational leaders

limited resources for interventions

crime

mediocre or no early childcare/preschool

stereotype threat

pollution

Different cultural/ social norms and expectations

DeNavas-Walt, Carmen, Bernadette D. Proctor, and Jessica C. Smith, U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Reports, P60-239, Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2010, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC,2011.

Child Poverty Rates in Industrialized Countries

Icelan

d

Finlan

d

Netherla

nds

German

y

France

Hungary UK

Canad

aJap

an Italy US

Romania

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

ReportedBefore benefits

Source: UNICEF Innocenti Research Centre (2012), ‘Measuring Child Poverty: New league tables of child poverty in the world’s rich countries’, Innocenti Report Card 10, UNICEF Innocenti Research Centre, Florence.

Child Poverty Rates in Industrialized Countries

Icelan

d

Finlan

d

Netherla

nds

German

y

France

Hungary UK

Canad

aJap

an Italy US

Romania

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

ReportedBefore benefits

Source: UNICEF Innocenti Research Centre (2012), ‘Measuring Child Poverty: New league tables of child poverty in the world’s rich countries’, Innocenti Report Card 10, UNICEF Innocenti Research Centre, Florence.

State-by-State …

States with over 50% of students eligible for FRL: 17

States with over 40% of students eligible: 35

Range from 24% to 72%

States with majority-minority school populations: 13

States with near-majority-minority school populations: 10

Range from 8-92%

Source: NCES, Condition of Education, 2011 and 2012

Implications and Interventions

ConclusionsThe percentage of American students who perform at advanced levels on international assessments does not compare favorably to those in other countries.Excellence gaps remain large and, in many cases, continue to grow.State assessments continue to overidentify advanced performance; regardless, excellence gaps are found on almost every state assessment.

Big Implication

We can predict with high accuracy that a talented student who is poor and/or Hispanic, Black, or Native American will not perform at advanced levels in K-12 education.

Hence “persistent talent underclass.”

ImplicationsAs income disparity reaches unprecedented levels, we fear a vicious circle of EGs feeding greater income gaps, feeding greater EGs, feeding greater income gaps, etc.

The global warming of education?i.e., people are resigned to this inequality

Andy Smarick’s recent thoughts about giftedness and the American consciousness

RecommendationsTwo questions for policymakers:

How will the proposed policy impact our highest achieving students?How will the proposed policy help more students achieve at the highest levels?

Publish advanced test scores and excellence gaps whenever results are released.

Recommendations

Indicators for excellence and excellence gaps must be included in state accountability systems

21st century skills need to be incorporated into these systemsThese are the skills other countries envy

Aggressively address low-hanging policy issuesAnti-acceleration policies, rigid kindergarten age cut-offs

Quick, little group activityWhat can you do to help promote excellence and reduce excellence gaps in your schools and community?

Short-term: This yearMedium-term: Next year and the year after thatLong-term: 3+ years

Warren BuffettFortune, May 2, 2013:

No manager operates his or her plants at 80% efficiency when steps could be taken that would increase output. And no CEO wants male employees to be underutilized when improved training or working conditions would boost productivity. … If obvious benefits flow from helping the male component of the workforce achieve its potential, why in the world wouldn’t you want to include its counterpart? ... We've seen what can be accomplished when we use 50% of our human capacity. If you visualize what 100% can do, you'll join me as an unbridled optimist about America's future.

Sure, but 50% is wildly optimistic.