Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling and Measurement...

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Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling and Measurement Workshop Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources: activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010 Carlo Trozzi Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling and Measurement Workshop Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources: activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory Carlo Trozzi Larnaca (Cyprus), 10-11 May 2010

Transcript of Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling and Measurement...

Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling and Measurement Workshop

Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources:activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory

Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010Carlo Trozzi

Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling and Measurement Workshop

Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources:activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory

Carlo Trozzi

Larnaca (Cyprus), 10-11 May 2010

Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling and Measurement Workshop

Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources:activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory

Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010Carlo Trozzi

TOPICSTentative methodology to evaluate domestic emissions from wood burningOther uncertain PM sources (diffuse PM emissions from storage, handling and transport )

Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling and Measurement Workshop

Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources:activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory

Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010Carlo Trozzi

emissions from wood burningMethodology goals

Evaluation of fuel consumption on a more detailed geographical scale for example NUT3 (provinces or equivalent units) or LAU 2 (municipalities or equivalent units) of Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics as established by Eurostat to: Obtain more accurate estimates Use of data to allocate emissions on the

EMEP 50 km X 50 km grid (or finest ones, 10 km x 10 km)

Allocation of fuel consumption to different technologies

Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling and Measurement Workshop

Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources:activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory

Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010Carlo Trozzi

Wood burning proposed methodology

1 Elaborate fuel sold from statistical sources

2 Evaluate temperature on very detailed space grid by meteorological model

3 Compute energy requirements on climatic areas by energy models based on temperature and census data about fuel use

4 Compare energy requirements with fuel sold

5 Use census data and/or specific survey for fuel/technologies allocation

Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling and Measurement Workshop

Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources:activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory

Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010Carlo Trozzi

Wood burning pilot studyA pilot study

was conduced in Italy inside

Genova province (NUTS 3

territory) to evaluate natural

gas and other fuel

consumption on LAU 2

(municipalities)

Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling and Measurement Workshop

Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources:activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory

Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010Carlo Trozzi

Wood burning pilot study Temperature trend assessed on an hourly

basis, throughout the province on a grid of 1km x 1km by meteorological models for the reference year

Evaluation of the heat demand of the houses for typology by energy model

Evaluation of total requirements in all the municipalities using data on the stock of houses

Validation of total computed value for gas with quantity distributed by the gas network

Comparison of data for wood and liquid fuels with available statistics

Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling and Measurement Workshop

Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources:activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory

Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010Carlo Trozzi

Wood burning pilot studyTemperature model

Evaluation of the hourly values of temperatures at 1 km x 1 km grid with two meteorological models (MM5 mesoscale model of PSU/NCAR and Calmet model)

Assignment to each municipality the temperature of the mesh of City Hall

(on national scale can be used 5 km x 5 km, 10 km x 10 km or larger grids depends on orography and climate)

Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling and Measurement Workshop

Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources:activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory

Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010Carlo Trozzi

Pilot study – Temperature validation

Conparison beween daily average temperature computed and measured at Genova Airport

Measured Computed

Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling and Measurement Workshop

Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources:activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory

Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010Carlo Trozzi

Wood burning pilot study – Degree day

Evaluation of degree day (is the sum, extended to all days of a conventional one-year period, of the positive differences between the conventional daily temperature, set in Italy at 20 ° C, and the daily outside average temperature)

Use of degree day as input to energy model

Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling and Measurement Workshop

Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources:activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory

Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010Carlo Trozzi

Wood burning pilot study

Municipality degree day

Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling and Measurement Workshop

Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources:activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory

Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010Carlo Trozzi

Wood burning pilot study – Energy model

The heating and hot water requirements of an “average” house was computed with DOCET model (made by Italy CNR / ENEA) in a series of simulations: in each municipality (using degree day

specific to municipalities) for different types of housing (specific to

municipalities) about: period of construction (old / new

house) location (city center or isolated) type of structure

Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling and Measurement Workshop

Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources:activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory

Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010Carlo Trozzi

Wood burning pilot study – Energy model

For a number of other parameters (external finish, top height, number of floors, wall thickness, window type, window area, etc.) were assigned default values (evaluated with a sensitivity study)

Total consumption in all the municipalities was obtained by multiplying the heating requirements of an “average” house for the number of houses powered by natural gas, liquid fuels or firewood (source: ISTAT national population census)

Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling and Measurement Workshop

Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources:activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory

Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010Carlo Trozzi

Wood burning pilot study – Results For natural gas the following result was

obtained as total provincial figure: Model results 444.232.000 m3

Total natural gas distributed by area network 472.313.000 m3

The comparison shows that the total calculated is 94% of the distributed quantity

Given that the data of the gas distribution includes the consumption of small industrial plants, connected to city networks, the correspondence is very satisfactory

Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling and Measurement Workshop

Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources:activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory

Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010Carlo Trozzi

Pilot study – Results For wood the following result was obtained

as total provincial figure: Model results 204.451 t Allowed to cut firewood 15.350 t

The comparison shows that the total calculated is 1332% of the data reported in official statistics

In this case the calculated total is far higher than official figures as expected, but less than, data obtained by a survey conducted on the final consumer in other works: Survey data 353.308 t

Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling and Measurement Workshop

Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources:activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory

Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010Carlo Trozzi

Other uncertain PM sourcesModels of transport of pollutants do not

explain the measured concentrations of PM in Europe

A possible cause of error is the existence of ghost emissions not evaluated in the inventories

A source of PM rarely assessed, and difficult to assess, is the storage and transportation of solid fuels, raw materials and waste

The next slides give an overview of the activities involved and assess the presence of emission factors and methodologies in the Guidebook, in order to close the gap

Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling and Measurement Workshop

Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources:activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory

Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010Carlo Trozzi

NFR for storage, handling and transport

1.B.1.a Fugitive emissions from solid fuels: Coal mining and handling

1.B.1.b Fugitive emissions from solid fuels: Solid fuel transformation

2.A.7.a Quarrying and mining of minerals other than coal

2.A.7.b Construction and demolition 2.A.7.c Storage, handling and transport of

mineral products 2.C.5.f Storage, handling and transport of

metal products 6.A Solid waste disposal on land

Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling and Measurement Workshop

Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources:activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory

Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010Carlo Trozzi

Storage, handling and transport

Methodology available in the GuidebookTier 1 generic EF, high uncertaintyTier 2 no EF or EF as for Tier 1Tier 3 no methodology only some generic

reference to US EPA methodology

Activity not defined in NFRTransport of solid fuels (coal, wood and wood

waste) Transport of agriculture products to food industryTransport of solid waste

Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling and Measurement Workshop

Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources:activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory

Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010Carlo Trozzi

Final consideration on methodologiesWood burning

The pilot study will be used to define a generalized methodology for compute fuel consumptions on large scale in the frame of TFEIP activities

More census detailed data on number of installed facilities by type are useful (promote more detailed census data sheets)

Joint Task Force on Emission Inventory & Projection / Task Force on Modeling and Measurement Workshop

Wood Burning and other uncertain PM sources:activity uncertainty and reporting in inventory

Larnaca (Cyprus), 12 May 2010Carlo Trozzi

Final consideration on methodologiesStorage, handling and transport

A Tier 3 methodology needs to be developed and Tier 2 and Tier 1 Efs have to be derived from Tier 3

US EPA AP 42 methods will be used as base for Tiers development (2008) 13.2.3 Heavy Construction Operations 13.2.4 Aggregate Handling And

Storage Piles (2006)