Johnny A. Johannessen and Laurent Bertino - NERSC · Johnny A. Johannessen and Laurent Bertino...

Operational Oceanography at the

Nansen Center Johnny A. Johannessen and

Laurent Bertino

Nansen Center 25 years Colloquium Friday 18 November 2011

OPERATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHY DEFINITION BY GOOS: ABILITY TO PROVIDE ROUTINE INFORMATION WITH A

QUALITY TAG THAT CAN BE USED FOR:

• HINDCAST (REANALYSES)

• NOWCAST (ANALYSES)

• FORECAST (up to 7 days)

THE KEY TOOLS: OCEAN MODELS AND THE DATA ASSIMILATION SYSTEM

ACCESS TO ATMOPSHERIC FIELDS FROM WEATHER PREDICTION CENTRE ARE NEEDED TO FORCE THE OCEAN MODELS.

IMPORTANCE OF DATA: FREE AND NEAR REAL TIME ACCESS TO OBSERVATIONS FROM SATELLITES AND IN-SITU DATA (AVAILABLE VIA INTERNET)


Operational Oceanography System at NERSC

• HYCOM coupled to sea ice module and bio-module • Forced by ECMWF winds/fluxes • EnKF for data assimilation (100) • 400.000 observations per week


• North Atlantic – Arctic region • Barents Sea (no assim) • Fram Strait (no asims) • Nordic Seas (no assim) • Lofoten (no assim)

• Gulf of Mexico (Ocean Focus) • South China Sea (SeaFine with V. Cardone) • West Africa (no assim) • Indian Ocean to Antarctica (no assim) • Agulhas (at Nansen-Tutu, SA) (no assim) • Indian Ocean (at INCOIS, India) (no assim) • Global (at NMEFC/China) (no assim)

T O O L S

C O V E R A G E



Who are using the product/info • met.no • GMES – MyOcean (EMSA, EEA) • ECMWF • TOTAL • IMR • Seafine (15 oil companies in S.China Sea) • Statoil • Research at NERSC

What does it provide - 2D/3D/4D ocean/sea ice/(bio) state description - Forecast carried out at met.no (MyOcean) - Reanalyses at NERSC - What-if scenario simulations

Fram Strait 3.5 km resolution (410 × 320)

Barents Sea 5.0 km resolution (520 × 410)

TOPAZ - North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans 11 – 16 km resolution (800 × 880) 28 hybrid vertical levels EnKF (100 members)

Lofoten model 2.3 km resolution (315*370)

104 million numbers (including sea ice variables)

Nordic Seas 5 km resolution

Importance of data assimilation

Physical consistency Accuracy

Forecasting skills

Model Observations

Data Assimil


ASSIMILATION OF OCEAN SURFACE VARIABLES MEASURED FROM SPACE

CHLOROPHYLL - BIOMASS

SURFACE TEMPERATURE (OSTIA)

SLA-SURFACE CURRENT (CLS)

ASSIMILATION OF OCEAN VARIABLES MEASURED WITH IN-SITU PLATFORMS


SEA ICE CONCENTRATION (NSIDC)

Temperature and salinity profiles (0-1000m)

SEA ICE DRIFT (CERSAT)

Observed sea ice concentration

14 Nov. 2011

Observed versus Predicted sea ice concentration

14 Nov. 2011


SSMI OBSERVATIONS TOPAZ FORECAST

http://arctic-roos.org

TOPAZ TEMPERATURE PREDICTION (5 M) FOR 16 NOV.

Reanalyses

1-year (2007) animation of sea

surface height and ocean circulation

Validation against surface drifters


Sea Ice Thickness

Observations are ICESAT from JPL The assimilation of ice concentrations and ice drift slightly improve the thickness Sea ice mechanical behavior remains the main challenge

Impact of assimilating salinity profiles in the Arctic

before ITP data

S A L I N I T Y

before ITP data


NORDIC SEAS &

ARCTIC Ocean

NORDIC SEAS &

ARCTIC Ocean

Fram Strait temperature sections (not assimilated)


Upstream Inflow of Atlantic Water: Surface Current

7 October 2011

Hansen et al., 2011 (JGR, in press)

CNES-CLS09 MDT (1993-2008) ASAR (2007-2010)


Hansen et al, 2011

Daily downloads at Selected Region (winds, fronts, sea ice, oil)

http://sat.nersc.no/ASAR

Samuelsen et al (submitted)

Near Real Time Alge Monitoring


http.//HAB.nersc.no


SUMMARY & FUTURE


- Assimilation of new data - OSSE: impact of observations in data-sparse regions - Assimilation in Climate Models (Practice + CarboChange) - TOPAZ will be the Arctic MFC in the ECOMF (after 2015

- High resolution Sea Ice Modeling in the MIZ. New sea ice rheology? - Coupled HYCOM/Norwecom/IBM - Implement Norwegian Coastal Current model (2 km) - Brazilian Current – Malvinas Current

- Other model codes and implementation??

Forcings, Initial cond.

Satellite, In Situ Data

EnKF MICOM

CICE

HAMOCC

CAM

Parameters Error bars

Uncertainties Uncertainties

Assimilation in NorESM --- Seasonal to Decadal Climate Prediction


Johnny A. Johannessen and Laurent Bertino - NERSC · Johnny A. Johannessen and Laurent Bertino...

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