John Tirpak Science Coordinator, GCPOLCC GCPOLCC Steering Committee Meeting SEAFWA Conference, Hot...

John Tirpak

Science Coordinator, GCPOLCC

GCPOLCC Steering Committee Meeting

SEAFWA Conference, Hot Springs, AR

October 9, 2012

Adaptation Science Management Team

The GCPO LCC Approach to Applying an SHC Conservation Framework

Objectives

• Provide Steering Committee an overview of the Adaptation Science Management Team Workshop

• Highlight key findings and recommendations from Adaptation Science Management Team

• Identify next steps and provide opportunity for Steering Committee feedback

Outline

• Past– Function and structure of ASMT

• Present– Meeting in Starkville, MS

• Conservation frameworks• Conceptual models• Conservation targets

• Future– Recommendations– Next steps

Gulf Coastal Plains & Ozarks LCC

• Mission– To define, design, and deliver landscapes

capable of sustaining natural and cultural resources at desired levels now and into the future

• Steering Committee– Guide direction and set broad goals of

GCPOLCC

• Integrate priorities across resource perspectives

• Incorporate future change into current planning

Long-Term Goals

LCC GoalsLong- and Short-Term

Short-Term Goals• Highlight LCC’s functional role

• Demonstrate tangible relevance

• Work with partnerships

• Support underserved partners

LCC GoalsProjects with LCC Involvement

Questions

• All of these are “good” projects, but are they the “right” projects?

• Who thinks through the technical challenges associated with the goals of the Partnership?

• Who has the big picture in mind?– How do individual projects add up to a

meaningful whole?– How do we communicate that big picture?


StructureFish Herps Birds Mammals

Aquatic Inverts Plants Cultural Water




East Gulf Coastal Plain

Interior Highlands

Mississippi Alluvial Valley

West Gulf Coastal Plain

Gulf Coast




East Gulf Coastal Plain

R R B M M R B M

Interior Highlands

M R M B R M M R

Mississippi Alluvial Valley

B B R M R M R M

West Gulf Coastal Plain

R B B R R R B R

Gulf Coast M M B M M R R B

FunctionalResearcherManager Both

OrganizationalFederalStateNGO/PrivatePartnership

Populating the ASMT

• Solicited nomination by partners, partnerships, individuals

• Worked with Partnership Council to make initial selections

• Steering Committee approved final decisions


Official Members Fish Herps Birds Mammals Aquatic

Inverts Plants Culture Water

East Gulf Coastal Plain/ South Atlantic-Gulf, Tennessee

Tim Churchill (TWRA)

Jessica Homyack (Weyerhaeuser)

Barry Grand (USGS-Auburn)

Darren Miller (Weyerhaeuser)

Jeff Powell (USFWS)

Alex Wyss (TNC)

Ken Ppool (MDAH)

Scott Gain (USGS)

Interior Highlands/Missouri, Ohio, Upper Mississippi

Mike Kruse (MDC)

Bill Sutton (SEPARC-UTK)

Todd Jones-Farrand (CHJV)

Shauna Marquardt (USFWS)

David Bowles (NPS)

Esther Stroh (USGS-CEEC)

VACANT Dan Magoulick - (USGS-UA)

Mississippi Alluvial Valley/ Lower Mississippi

Hal Schramm (USGS-MSU)

Hardin Waddle (USGS-NWRC)

Randy Wilson (USFWS)

Joe Clark (UTK) Wendell Haag (USFS)

Sammy King (USGS-LSU)

Margo Schwadron (NPS)

Ed Lambert (USACE)

West Gulf Coastal Plain/ Arkansas-Red-White, TX-Gulf

Lee Holt (AGFC)

Craig Rudolph (USFS)

Jonathan Thompson (LMVJV)

Chris Comer (SFA)

Tony Brady (USFWS)

Jason Singhurst (TPWD)

VACANT VACANT

Gulf Coast/TX-Gulf Glenn Constant (USFWS)

JJ Apodaca (SEPARC-FSU)

Mark Woodrey (MSU)

Jeff Duguay (LDWF)

Meg Goecker (NOAA)

Julie Whitbeck (NPS)

Tina Shumate (MDMR)

Mike Shelton (ADCNR)

Functional OrganizationalResearcher FederalManager StateAbout 50-50 NGO/Private

Partnership

A Charge from Steering Committee

Notes from April 2012 SC Meeting• “Task the Adaptation Science Management Team to

report back to the Steering Committee on how the issues of nutrient management/water quality, wetlands and ecosystem services within the GCPO LCC landscape should be addressed and/or science combined to have greatest impact on the Gulf, particularly with respect to the hypoxia issue. These three issues should be considered three of a larger set that the ASMT may address within the entire GCPO landscape. The focus should include how these connections can drive the science, conservation planning and decision support tools needed to fill gaps for connecting the GCPO LCC to the Gulf. The ASMT should address questions such as, do these issues need to be tackled together or independently? What is out there right now in terms of research and tools? What is missing?”

Initial Tasks for the ASMT

• Outline a Conservation Adaptation Strategy– What does SHC look like in the GCPOLCC?

• Prioritize science needed to develop and implement Conservation Adaptation Strategy– Develop a ‘Science Agenda’


Inaugural Workshop• Three topics

– Conservation frameworks

– Conceptual models– Conservation

targets

• MSU-GRI– Starkville, MS– Sept 18-20, 2012

• ½ day, full day, ½ day


Official Members Fish Herps Birds Mammals Aquatic



Tim Churchill (TWRA)


Barry Grand (USGS-Auburn)

Darren Miller (Weyerhaeuser)

Jeff Powell (USFWS)

Alex Wyss (TNC)

Ken Ppool (MDAH)

Scott Gain (USGS)


Mike Kruse (MDC)




David Bowles (NPS)

Esther Stroh (USGS-CEEC)






Joe Clark (UTK) Wendell Haag (USFS)

Sammy King (USGS-LSU)

Margo Schwadron (NPS)

Ed Lambert (USACE)


Lee Holt (AGFC)


Jonathan Thompson (LMVJV)

Chris Comer (SFA)

Tony Brady (USFWS)


VACANT VACANT


JJ Apodaca (SEPARC-FSU)

Mark Woodrey (MSU)

Jeff Duguay (LDWF)

Meg Goecker (NOAA)


Tina Shumate (MDMR)

Mike Shelton (ADCNR)


Partnership


Meeting Attendees Fish Herps Birds Mammals Aquatic



Ricky Campbell (USFWS)


No Proxy Darren Miller (Weyerhaeuser)

Jeff Powell (USFWS)

Alex Wyss (TNC)

Ken Ppool (MDAH)

Scott Gain (USGS)


Mike Kruse (MDC)




David Bowles (NPS)

Keith Grabner (USGS)






No Proxy Wendell Haag (USFS)

Brady Self (MSU)

No Proxy Ed Lambert (USACE)


Lee Holt (AGFC)


Dan Twedt (USGS)

Chris Comer (SFA)

Tony Brady (USFWS)


VACANT VACANT


Keri Landry (LDWF)

Mark Woodrey (MSU)

Jeff Duguay (LDWF)

Meg Goecker (NOAA)


No Proxy Mike Shelton (ADCNR)


Partnership








Jeff Powell (USFWS)

Alex Wyss (TNC)

Ken Ppool (MDAH)

Scott Gain (USGS)


Mike Kruse (MDC)




David Bowles (NPS)








Brady Self (MSU)



Lee Holt (AGFC)


Dan Twedt (USGS)

Chris Comer (SFA)

Tony Brady (USFWS)


VACANT VACANT


Keri Landry (LDWF)

Mark Woodrey (MSU)

Jeff Duguay (LDWF)

Meg Goecker (NOAA)



Functional Organizational ProxyResearcher FederalManager StateAbout 50-50 NGO/Private

Partnership








Jeff Powell (USFWS)

Alex Wyss (TNC)

Ken Ppool (MDAH)

Scott Gain (USGS)


Mike Kruse (MDC)




David Bowles (NPS)








Brady Self (MSU)



Lee Holt (AGFC)


Dan Twedt (USGS)

Chris Comer (SFA)

Tony Brady (USFWS)


VACANT VACANT


Keri Landry (LDWF)

Mark Woodrey (MSU)

Jeff Duguay (LDWF)

Meg Goecker (NOAA)



Functional Organizational ProxyResearcher Federal Remote Manager StateAbout 50-50 NGO/Private

Partnership

Outline




Conservation FrameworkDefined

• A group of logical categories for organizing conservation activities

Conservation FrameworkStrategic Habitat Conservation

• Strategic Habitat Conservation is the approach endorsed by Steering Committee

Biological Planning Unit

Priority Species

Population Objectives

Limiting Factors

Species/Habitat Models

Landscape/Habitat Assessment

Assessment of Conservation Estate

Decision Support Tools

Habitat Objectives

Integrate Multiple Species Objectives

Conservation Treatments

Program Objectives

Conservation Tracking System

Habitat Inventory and Monitoring Program

Population Monitoring Program

Species/Habitat Model Assumptions

Conservation Treatment Assumptions

Keyfactor/Sensitivity Analyses

Spatial Data AnalysesAss

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Crustacea Mollusks Plants Cultures

Bio

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Pla

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Co

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Des

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Del

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GCPOLCC Operational Compass: Sustaining Natural and Cultural Resources Through Science, Technology and Partnerships

SHC Element Sub-element/Product Birds Mammals Reptiles Amphibia Fish Insects

Key Question to ASMT

• How do we apply and adopt the broad SHC framework to the mission of the GCPOLCC?– What are valuable elements of a stepped-

down conservation framework?

• Explore approaches from multiple LCCs– Gulf Coastal Plains & Ozarks – Prediction – North Atlantic – Toolbox – Peninsular Florida – Scenario Planning– South Atlantic – Optimization

Initial Feedback

• An overarching modeling framework is something to pursue in the very near term– Decision context for models is critical

Initial Feedback

• “As simple as possible, but no simpler”

Preliminary Recommendation

• Pursue a modeling approach that incorporates scenario planning and explicitly ties projections to specific conservation decisions

-Einstein

Outline



• Conservation frameworks• Conceptual models

Conceptual ModelDefined

• Tool to represent, communicate, and analyze the structure, function, and hierarchical relationships of systems

Objective of Conceptual Modeling

• Level the information playing field– Developing conceptual models

collaboratively allows us collectively to see the system similarly

Why is that Important?

• Mission of LCC– Define, design, and deliver landscapes

capable of sustaining natural and cultural resources at desired levels now and into the future

• This requires us to see the system holistically– Connections among resource interests– Identification of key drivers, stressors, and

endpoints in the system

Developing Conceptual ModelsSteps

• Henderson and O’Neil – Identify objectives

and uses of the model

– Delineate spatial and temporal scales

– Identify structural components of system

– Identify the sources of change in the system

• Henderson and O’Neil (2004)

Objective of Conceptual Modeling

• Level the information playing field– Developing conceptual models

collaboratively allows us collectively to see the system similarly• Identify and organize system components• Identify relationships among these components• Effectively communicate system complexity

Applications of Conceptual Model

• Integrate information across disciplines• Assess knowledge gaps and prioritize

science needs• Identify appropriate conservation

targets

Spatial Scale

Structural Components of the Model

• Henderson and O’Neil – Drivers– Stressors– Essential Ecosystem

Characteristics– Endpoints


Model ComponentsDrivers

• Natural or anthropogenic factors that cause change in environmental conditions

• Climate change• Agriculture• Urbanization• Recreation• Transportation• Resource extraction• Others

Model ComponentsStressors

• Physical, chemical, and biological changes that result from natural and human-caused forces (drivers) and effect other changes in ecosystem structure and function

Model ComponentsStressors

• Examples stressors from urbanization (driver)– Forest fragmentation

• More edge, smaller patch sizes, loss of connectivity

– Increase in invasive species– Altered disturbance regimes

• Timing, duration, extent, frequency

– Increased water temperature– Altered flow

• Reduced flow, increased flashiness

Model ComponentsEssential Ecosystem

Characteristics• Major components that stressors act

upon– Broad Habitat Types (USFWS &

NatureServe)

Model ComponentsEndpoints

• Measureable ecosystem structures or functions that are considered ecologically significant and important to the public


• Endpoints occur at multiple organizational levels– Ecosystem

• Ecologically important processes

– Landscape• Spatial and temporal patterns of habitat

– Community• Biotic diversity and composition

– Species• Ecological role (habitat, functional, etc.)






– Identify the sources of change in the system


Initial Feedback

• Conceptual modeling was a useful process for simplifying system complexity and narrowing down on science needs related to landscape-scale stressors and change

Initial Feedback

• Fragmentation was top stressor in terrestrial systems

• Altered hydrology was top stressor in aquatic systems

Preliminary Recommendation

• Invest LCC science capacity and funding on characterizing response of hydrology and fragmentation to key drivers across GCPO landscape

Outline





• Endpoints can occur at multiple organizational levels– Ecosystem




• Endpoints can occur at multiple organizational levels– Ecosystem



– Community• Biotic diversity and composition

– Species• Ecological role (habitat, functional, etc.)

Conservation TargetsSpecies-level Endpoints

• Benefits– Strategic focus for conservation activities

• Planning and design• Management objectives• Monitoring programs

– Increased accountability and transparency– Offer a measureable biological response

tied directly to many agencies’ and organizations’ specific interests

– Connect individual species to ecosystem functions• Help link partners’ conservation priorities

–

Species Conservation TargetsA Case Study from WGCP Open Pine• A vision for bird

conservation in WGCP open pine– Broadly described

desired state for pine

– What is specifically needed

– How much is needed

West Gulf Coastal PlainOpen Pine Habitat

• Open pine priority– Forest, woodlands, and savannas

comprised mostly of pine with low basal area, open canopies and dense herbaceous understories in large interconnected blocks• How much pine?• How low does the basal area need to be?• How open the canopy?• How much understory?• How large the forest block?• How interconnected?

West Gulf Coastal Plain Open Pine

Targets to Objectives• Setting

population objectives for species limited by desired habitat conditions provides habitat objectives as well

An Outlined Process for the LCC

• Identify habitat types• Broadly describe desired states for each

habitat type• Identify species that respond to limiting

habitat conditions reflected in desired states– Quantify and document

relationships/thresholds

• Establish population objectives for species– Translate into habitat objectives

• Review and revise

Surrogate SpeciesUSFWS Technical Guidance

• Clearly specify conservation objectives for surrogate species selection approach

• Identify geographic scale• Determine which species to consider• Select criteria to use in selecting

surrogate species• Establish surrogates

Surrogate SpeciesUSFWS Technical Guidance

• Identify species requiring special attention

• Identify population objectives• Test for logic and consistency• Identify knowledge gaps and

uncertainties• Monitor the effectiveness of the

approach

Connection Between Efforts

• USFWS is hosting Surrogate Species workshops in October– October 2-3, 2012 in Memphis, TN– October 24-25, 2012 in Lafayette, LA

• The Service would likely welcome the LCC’s leadership on species selection– Greg and I are attending both workshops

• The LCC can express its willingness to help– We have the outline of a process in place– We have a partner-based technical team in

place

Initial Feedback

• There is value in using species as endpoints to define and design conservation

• If FWS is pursuing this approach, we need to align these efforts as much as possible

Preliminary RecommendationConservation Targets

• Steering Committee endorses ASMT’s desire to use species endpoints to guide conservation design and align that with USFWS Surrogate Species effort

Outline




• Future– Recommendations– Next steps

Recommendations and Next Steps

Conservation Frameworks• Pursue a modeling approach that

incorporates scenario planning and explicitly ties projections to specific conservation decisions

• Next steps for ASMT– Identify clear decision contexts

• What kinds of decisions will this model inform?• How will this information specifically be used?

– Craft and circulate an RFP

Preliminary RecommendationConceptual Models

• Invest LCC science capacity and funding on characterizing response of hydrology and fragmentation to key drivers across GCPO landscape

• Next Steps for ASMT– Review information from workshop

• Evaluate key drivers identified

– Identify additional conceptual models to complete

Preliminary RecommendationConservation Targets

• Steering Committee endorses ASMT’s desire to use species endpoints to guide conservation design and align that with USFWS Surrogate Species effort

• Next steps for Steering Committee– Extend LCC’s offer to USFWS

• Next step for ASMT– Identify habitats and desired states for

them– Identify species that reflect desired

conditions– Document uncertainties in conservation

design

GCPO LCC Science AgendaOutline

• Mission• Strategic Habitat Conservation

framework• Geographic constructs• Conceptual models

– Drivers, stressors, habitats, endpoints

• Modeling approach– Desired characteristics

• Key uncertainties– Planning and design

ASMT Participant Feedback

• A large majority felt they were vested in the GCPOLCC and would participate in future meetings

ASMT Participant Feedback

• A vast majority found the workshop a valuable use of their time and would like to meet at least annually

John Tirpak Science Coordinator, GCPOLCC GCPOLCC Steering Committee Meeting SEAFWA Conference, Hot...

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