Jim Fournier February 27, 2006 An Optimistic Scenario About Global Warming, Peak Oil and Other...
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Transcript of Jim Fournier February 27, 2006 An Optimistic Scenario About Global Warming, Peak Oil and Other...
Jim FournierFebruary 27, 2006
An Optimistic Scenario About Global Warming, Peak Oil
and Other Global Crises
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 2
Good News!
…Later
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 3
What Are We to Make of the Global Situation?
http://www.maa.org/devlin/GordianKnot.jpg
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 4
The Human Time Scale
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 5
Four Planetary Crises, orEvolutionary Drivers:
1. Global Warming
2. Peak Oil
3. Peak Population
4. Resource Depletion (Mass Extinction)
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 6
Global Warming: Climate Change
http://www.brighton73.freeserve.co.uk/gw/paleo/millenniumCO2.htm
Atmospheric CO2 & Temperature, 1000 Years
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 7
CO2, Methane, & Temperature Over the Last 160,000 Years
http://www.iitap.iastate.edu/gccourse/chem/gases/images/meth_temp.gif
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 8
Peak Oil
http://www.peakoil.org
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 9
The Green Party View
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 10
Peak OilWill Increase Energy Prices
• Drive Efficiency • Reduce Demand• Enable Renewables• Increase Demand for
Coal & Oil Sand
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 11
Global Energy Use Per Person Has Actually Stopped Growing
http://www.esru.strath.ac.uk/EandE/Web_sites/03-04/biomass/ background%20info.html
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 12
But the Population has Not, so CO2 is Still Growing Under Kyoto
http://www.climatechange.gc.ca/english/publications/ap2000/Action_Plan_2000.htm
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 13
Long-Term Population Growth
Global Population: Milestones, Hopes, and Concerns Vaclav Smil, PhD http://www.ippnw.org/MGS/V5N2Smil.html
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 14
Population S-Curve
http://www.gcrio.org/CONSEQUENCES/summer95/fig1.html
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 15
Peak Population?
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/GW/data/global/ciesin-sres/
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 16
Some Plausible Good News On Population
U.N. Population Figures May be Correct, Because Over 50% of the Global Population Now Lives in Cities and a Large Family is a Liability in a City, Even Among the Poor
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 17
Overall Consumption Is Still Growing
http://www.oilcrash.com/articles/kerr_02.htm
Natural Resource Use
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 18
Measured by Weight,95% of All Output from Industrial Activity is Waste
Grasberg Gold Mine, West Papua
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 19
Ecological Footprints Attempt to Combine Many Factors and Fail to Focus on Key Biological Resources:
• Forests• Fisheries• Farmland• Fresh Water
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 20
Destruction of Forests
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 21
Collapse of Fisheries
http://www.fao.org/NEWS/FACTFILE/FF9803-E.HTM
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 22
Exhaustion of Farmland
http://arch.rivm.nl/ieweb/ieweb/databases/images/NH3-fertilizer_sm.jpg
40% of allAgricultural Soils are Seriously Depleted
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 23
Limited Fresh Water Supply
http://www.waterandnature.org/eatlas/html/gm15.html
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 24
All Put Biodiversity At Risk
http://www.biodiversityhotspots.org/xp/Hotspots
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 25
If We Do Not Change Course, We Will Lose Half the Species on Earth in the Next 100 Years
Tree of Life Web Project http://tolweb.org/tree
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 26
For all of human evolution Nature was something with teeth and claws that could jump out of the dark and eat you. Now, in a single generation that situation has been inverted.Nature is suddenly something fragile that we must protect lest we perish.
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 27
What Are We to Make of the Global Situation?
http://www.maa.org/devlin/GordianKnot.jpg
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 28
One Biological Metaphor Is Cancer
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 29
Will Humanity Turn Out to Be Like a Colony of Mold in a Petri Dish?
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 30
Or Like An Embryo
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 31
Using The White of the Egg to Grow
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 32
A New Form of Complexity?
© James L. Fournier
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 33
Teilhard de Chardin’s Noosphere…
© James L. Fournier
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 34
Nature has repeatedly done just that before.
Life has always invented its way out of the box.
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 35
Here’s the Box
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 36
Periodic Spiral of the Elements
© James L. Fournier
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 37
Eight Fold Spiral Elements
© James L. Fournier
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 38
Inner Spiral of the Elements
© James L. Fournier
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 39
Reframing the Evolution of Technology In the Context of Biological Evolution
Roger Dean
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 40
Life First Derived Energy from Chemicals in the Primordial Soup
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 41
Until Photosynthesis
http://fig.cox.miami.edu/~tkoop/spring00/blnphotosyn.html
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 42
Only After the Oxygen Released Rusted All of the Iron in the Earth’s Crust
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 43
The Oxygen Level Finally Spiked
Causing Spontaneous Combustion
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 44
Respiration Took Advantage of New High-Energy Oxygen
http://bioweb.wku.edu/courses/BIOL115/Wyatt/Metabolism/Glycolysis2.htm
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 45
Resulting in the Carbon Cycle
http://www.energex.com.au/switched_on/energy_environment/energy_s_html_carboncycle.html
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 47
The Carbon Cycle Has Remained in Balance Until Deforestation and Fossil Fuels Increased CO2 Levels
http://www.bom.gov.au/info/climate/change/gallery/images/9.jpg
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 48
Peak Oil Is Analogous to Previous Energy Crises on Earth When Our Ancestors, the Microbes, Used Up All of the Most Easily Available Energy
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 49
As Humanity Has Discovered How to Take Advantage of the Immense Fossil Energy Reserves of the Planet, We Have, Like Other Life Forms Before Us, Unbalanced the Atmosphere
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 50
Since the year 2000 even our president has started saying that we are going toward a hydrogen economy. Everyone seems to agree that we need renewable energy.
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 51
The Ratio of Hydrogen to Carbon Has Been Steadily Evolving
• Wood• Peat• Coal• Oil• Natural Gas• Hydrogen
Each has more Hydrogen and less Carbon
Until one arrives at pure Hydrogen
Hydrogen is the smallest element
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 52
Energy In Matter Inevitably Converges on Hydrogen
© James L. Fournier
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 53
Transformation of Energy Media from Wood to Hydrogen
http://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch8en/conc8en/energytransition.html
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 54
We Can See Other Parallels With Nature As Well?
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 55
Photovoltaics Capture Photons in SiliconJust as Photosynthesis Does with Carbon
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 56
Silicon is Like the Next Octave of Carbon
© James L. Fournier
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 57
Solar Is the Long-term Solution
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 58
Wind Is Cost Effective Now
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 59
Neither can reverse the climate change already set In motion.
http://cires.colorado.edu/science/groups/steffen/greenland/melt2002/melt1992-2002.jpg
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 60
Current Biomass Technology
• Depletes The Soil
• Is Only Carbon Neutral
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 61
We Need a Bridge, Something to Close the Gap Between:
• 6 Quads Renewables Provide Now• .06 Quads Each For Solar & Wind• 100 Quads/Year U.S. Consumes
A Quad Is: 1 Quadrillion BTU1,000,000,000,000 BTU = 580,000 barrels of oil
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 62
If the bridge were not just Carbon Neutral, like current renewables, but Carbon Negative, i.e. could remove net CO2 from the atmosphere, it would be a miracle.
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 63
Terra Preta Agricultural Soil Carbon Breakthrough
• Made in the Amazon 500 Years Ago
• Removes Net CO2 From the Atmosphere
• Restores & Improves Soil Fertility
• Replenished By Soil Organisms
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 64
Biomass Energy Breakthrough The Best Charcoal For The Soil
Also Makes Hydrogen Energy
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 65
Carbon Sequestration Breakthrough
http://www.eprida.com
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 66
Fully Integrated Small Scale Biomass Technology Will:
• Remove CO2 From the Atmosphere
• Return CO2 to the Soil As Fertilizer
• Restore Soil While Adding Nitrogen
• Create Green Diesel Infrastructure
• Create Hydrogen Infrastructure
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 67
Mimics the Carbon Cycle
http://www.energex.com.au/switched_on/energy_environment/energy_s_html_carboncycle.html
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 68
An Octave of the Carbon Cycle
© James L. Fournier
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 69
“Back of the Envelop” Global Calculations
• These are NOT fully proven results• The following are a first pass approximation
of what MIGHT potentially be possible based on what we have seen from initial science, preliminary field trials and first working prototypes of the this technology
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 70
Potential Global Context• We Release 26,700,000,000 Tons of CO2
• One Unit Can Remove 4,000 Tons of CO2
• Soil Organisms Increase This Around 200%
• 3.5M Units To Remove 26.7B Tons of CO2
• Would Also Produce 25B Barrels of Diesel
• Global Oil Production = 26B Barrels (2004)
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 71
How Much Land Would That Take?
• 1 Unit Needs 10 Tons of Biomass per Day
• 1 Unit Needs 3,000 Tons Biomass per Year
• 1 to 10 Tons of Biomass per Acre per Year
• For Each Unit: 300 to 3,000 Acres
• For 3.5 Million Units: 1 to 10 Billion Acres
• Total Global Agricultural Land: 12B Acres
• Does Not Include Forestry Land
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 72
There Is No Guarantee; Stabilizing Climate Change Will Be a Race
• Increase Energy Efficiency• Increase Material Efficiency• Ethanol, Methanol & Other Biofuels• Capture Methane From Compost• Reduce Beef Production (Methane)• Capture & Sequester CO2 From Coal• Solar, Wind, Tidal, Geothermal Heat Pumps
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 73
It Is Plausible That We Could• Reverse Global Warming
• Transition From Fossil Fuels to Renewables
• Transition From Biodiesel to Hydrogen
• Restore Soil Fertility
• Eliminate Nitrogen Runoff
• Eliminate Acid Rain
• Decentralize Wealth Creation
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 74
We Could Transform the Global Situation
http://www.maa.org/devlin/GordianKnot.jpg
Into Something That Feels More Like a Winning Hand of Solitaire
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 75
Plausible Solutions For:
Global Warming Peak Oil Peak Population? Mass Extinction
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 76
An S-Curve Goes from Concave Up to Concave Down at the Point of Inflection
Point of Inflection
If Global Trends Decelerate,What Looked Like Log Curves May Turn Out to be S-Curves
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 77
An S-Curve Implies a Future Plateau Characterized by Climax Technology
© James L. Fournier
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 78
We are undergoing a point of inversion in matter and culture. From this point on our technological evolution in matter may be guided by the recognition of the potential for a climax technology, a state of Meta-Nature. A state as harmonious as nature in the coherence of its design, which, like nature, is the realization of a potential already inherent in the puzzle that is matter.
Meta-Nature
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 79
GEOMAN
© James L. Fournier
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 80
At the Point of Inflection Near the Millennium the System Is:• Changing So Fast That Nothing is Retained
• So Inefficient Nothing Should Be Retained
• First Glimpsing the Potential Future State
• Passing Through the Neck of the Hourglass
• Itself the Global Birth Canal
• Chaotic, Highly Unstable
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 81
The Shift must reframe the perception of society, to at once validate everything that has happened to bring us to this point, while at the same time making it self-evident to everyone that we must each now radically change course in the light of this new found perspective.
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 82
The Shift Point in Time
© James L. Fournier
February 27, 2006 The Planetary Situation 83
As We Pass Through the Neck of the Hourglass There Will BeTwo Key Measures of Success:
• Preservation of Biodiversity
• Achieving Climax Technology