Jeffrey S. Passel Washington, DC New Patterns in US ......Jeffrey S. Passel Pew Hispanic Center...

Jeffrey S. PasselPew Hispanic Center

Washington, DC

New Patterns inUS Immigration, 2011:Uncertainty for Reform

Immigration Reform:Implications for Farmers, Farm Workers, and Communities

University of California, DC – Washington, DC – 12-13 May 2011

Immigration Today

• Growth of Immigrant Population-- Overall Growth Stopped ’07 to mid-’10-- No Unauthorized Growth since ’06-- Mexican Increase Stopped (maybe?)

• Unauthorized Pop Down Slightly-- HUGE Drop in New Unauthorized-- Legal Immigration Levels Still High-- No Evidence of Increased Out-Flows

• Key Characteristics of Unauthorized-- Families with Children-- Geographic Dispersal

Source: Tabulations of monthly Current Population Surveys; 2000-2008 surveys use consistent,alternative weights developed by the Pew Hispanic Center (Passel and Cohn, 2010).

Foreign-Born Grew Steadily thru Apr. ‘07Plateau thru Apr. ’10, but New Growth

29.4

22

26

30

34

38

01-96 01-97 01-98 01-99 01-00 01-01 01-02 01-03 01-04 01-05 01-06 01-07 01-08 01-09 01-10 01-11

'90-based

'00-based

Foreign-Born Population from Monthly CPS (in millions)—3 mo Moving Average

Dec. ’1038.6 Million

April 2007 & April 201037.1 Million

31%28%

37%4%

Legal Permanent

Resident (LPR)

Aliens

12.4 million

Temporary Legal

Residents

~1.5 million

Unauthorized

Immigrants

11.2 million

40.2 Million Foreign-Born in 2010

Legal Status of Immigrants

Naturalized

Citizens

(former LPRs)

14.9 million

Source: Tabulations of augmented March 2010 Current Population Survey with dataon legal status and adjustments for omissions (Passel and Cohn, 2011).

Unauthorized Grew RapidlyThru 2007 – Declines Since

3.9

4

3 3.3

5

2.5

12.0(2007)

11.1(2005)8.4

Millions of Unauthorized Immigrants Living in the U.S.

4-80 6-891-82 6-86 10-9610-92 4-00 3-05 3-10

Source: Estimates based on March 2000-2010 Current Population Surveys (Passel and Cohn, 2011).and compilations of earlier estimates from multiple sources, many by Passel and colleagues.

Peak in ‘07 but No Change ‘09 to ‘10Unauthorized population (millions)

* Change from previous yearsignificant at 90%

Underlined figures show nosignificant change.

11.211.1

8.4

10.4*

9.4

11.311.6

9.3*

9.7

11.1*

12.0*

7

10

13

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Source: Estimates based on March 2000-2010 Current Population Surveys (Passel and Cohn, 2011).

Mexican Unauthorized Peaked in ‘07

6.56.7

4.6

6.0*

5.2*

6.5

6.8

4.8

5.5

6.3

7.0*

4

6

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Unauthorized population (millions)

* Change from previous yearsignificant at 90%

Underlined figures show nosignificant change.

Source: Estimates based on March 2000-2010 Current Population Surveys (Passel and Cohn, 2011).

OtherLatin America -- 24%

2.6 million

Africa & Other -- 3%0.3 million

Europe &Canada -- 4%

0.5 million

Asia & Mid-East -- 11%

1.3 million

Mexico -- 58%6.5 million

Mexico is Largest Sourceof Unauthorized, by Far

11.2 Million in March 2010Source: Tabulations of augmented March 2010 Current Population Survey with data

on legal status and adjustments for omissions (Passel and Cohn, 2011).

OtherLatin America

23%6.7 million

Africa & Other -- 5%

1.4 million

Europe &Canada -- 18%

5.2 million

Asia & Mid-East -- 34%

9.8 million

Mexico -- 20%5.8 million

Mexico is Largest Countryfor Legal Immigrants, Too

28.9 Million in March 2010Source: Tabulations of augmented March 2010 Current Population Survey with data

on legal status and adjustments for omissions (Passel and Cohn, 2011).

Focus onMexico

Key Features of Migration• Mexican Population in U.S.

-- Rapid Build-Up begins in 1970s through 2007-- Growth Stops after 2007 (10% in US)-- Possible Increase in Late 2010-- Unauthorized Numbers Peak in 2007

• Flows into U.S. -- Upward Trend in Late ‘90s; Peak ca. ’99-’01-- Drop and Increase Tied to Employment -- Flows Plummet After ’07-- Slight Rebound in 2010 (?)

• Other Features-- Role of Enforcement Uncertain-- Return Flows Have NOT Increased-- Family & Geographic Options Keep Folks in US

Mexicans in US Plateau (Sep ’07-May ‘10)New Growth Surge in Late 2010

3,787

8,014

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

01-96 01-97 01-98 01-99 01-00 01-01 01-02 01-03 01-04 01-05 01-06 01-07 01-08 01-09 01-10 01-11

'90-based

'00-based

Mexican-Born Population Entering ‘90 or later (in 000s)—3 mo Moving Average

Sep 2007 & May 20107.5 Million

Source: Tabulations of monthly Current Population Surveys; 2000-2008 surveys use consistent,alternative weights developed by the Pew Hispanic Center (Passel and Cohn, 2010).

Annual Flows,the Economy

& Enforcement

Surprise Gains in Employment byMexican Immigrants Since March 2010

10.3%9.3%

4.0%

10.3%

6.7%

13.6% 14.3%

8.9%

4.4%

6.3%7.4%

5.1%

9.4%

4.6%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

'99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11

Percent Unemployed — 3 mo. Moving Average

U.S. Natives

Mexican-BornEntered US ’90 or Later

Source: Tabulations from Current Population Surveys, January 2000 to October 2010.

177

100

608

241

0

200

400

600

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

90%

92%

94%

96%

Mexican In-Flows Follow US Employment;Flows Up in ‘10(?) with Some Improvements

% Employedof LF

Peak Start

Mexico-U.S.Migration

Annual Immigration(in 000s)

U.S EmploymentRate

Source: Estimates from March CPS, American Community Surveys, and Census 2000developed by author. See Passel and Cohn 2009,, Passel and Suro 2005.

Inflow of Unauthorized Mexicans Drops Dramatically After ‘05

500

410

220 220

90

March '00-

March '05

March '05-

March '06

March '06-

March '07

March '07-

March '08

March '08-

March '09

Source: March 2009 CPS, augmented by Pew Hispanic Center

Average Annual Inflow of Unauthorized Mexicans (000s)

662

981

1,085

882

1,6371,523

1,000

1,169

100300

608

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Apprehensions of Mexicans at the Southern Border

(in thousands)

Border Apprehensions of MexicansTrack Flows, but at Higher Levels

Annual Mexican Immigration, from ACS Year of Arrivals

(in thousands)

-23%

Source: Immigration from previous chart; apprehensions fromYearbook of Immigration Statistics, 2009 (DHS 2010).

98% 95%100% 97%

27%31%

41%

28%

Pre-1986 1986-1993 1994-2001 2002-2009

EventuallySucceeded

Apprehendedat Least Once

Apprehension Rate is Up, BUT…Virtually Everyone Gets In

Source: Based on estimates by Massey from Mexican Migration Project.

Are MORE Mexicans Going Home?

Why? Or Why Not?

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Annual Out Migration

Quarterly In-migration

Quarterly Out-Migration

Annual In-Migration

ENOE Shows Dropping Flows Out of Mexico

BUT Return Flows are Down, TooAnnual Migration Rate (per 1,000)

Out of and Into Mexico

Source: Encuesta Nacional del Ocupacion y Empleo from INEGI (www.inegi.gob.mx).

Why Aren’t More Leaving the US?

• Fear of Losing U.S. Job

• Situation in Mexico is No Better

• Border Enforcement-- Costly & Risky to Re-enter U.S.

• Integration into U.S. Society-- Families Increasingly Rooted in US-- U.S.-Born Children in School-- Social Networks in the U.S. -- Geographic Diversity gives Options

93%

54%

84%

56%

81%

72%

Adult Men (18-64) Adult Women (18-64)

Unauthorized Mexicans

Legal Mexican-Born

All Natives

Unauthorized Mexican Men Work More;Women Work Much Less Than Others

Percent in Labor Force, 2010

Source: Tabulations of augmented March 2010 Current Population Survey; with dataon legal status and adjustments for omissions (Passel and Cohn, 2011).

46%

34%

21%

Unauthorized

Immigrant

Households

Legal Immigrant

Households

U.S. Native

Households

Unauthorized Immigrants More Likely To Be Couples with Children

Percent of Group’s Householdsthat are Couples with Children,

2010


1.7

0.3

1.71.5

0.3

0.4

Men without

Partners or

Children

Men with Partners

or Children

Women without

Partners or

Children

Women with

Partners or

Children

Without Children

With Children

Most Unauthorized MexicansAre Married or Have Children

Persons in UnauthorizedMexican Families, 2010

(millions)


Unauthorized FamiliesHave Mixed Composition

16.6 million in Unauthorized Families

UnauthorizedChildren

1.0 million9% of all

unauthorized

Other Adults—875,000

U.S. CitizenChildren

4.5 million81% of kids Adult Women

4.3 million42% of Adults

Adult Men5.9 million

58% of Adults


Unauthorized Mexican FamiliesHave Very Mixed Composition

10.4 million in Unauthorized Mexican Families

UnauthorizedChildren

0.6 million9% of all

unauthorized

Other Adults—525,000

U.S. CitizenChildren

3.3 million84% of kids

Adult Women2.4 million

40% of Adults

Adult Men3.6 million

60% of Adults


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

US-Born Children of Unauthorized Upbut Unauthorized Decrease

Children with at Least One Unauthorized Immigrant Parent, by Status, 2000-2010 (in millions)

1.1

1.5

2.1

4.5

Unauthorized ImmigrantChildren

U.S-Born Children ofUnauthorized Parent(s)

Source: Tabulations of augmented March 2000-2010 Current Population Surveys; withdata on legal status and adjustments for omissions (Passel and Cohn, 2011).

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Most Children of Unauthorized HaveMexican Parent(s)

Children with at Least One Unauthorized Mexican Immigrant Parent,

by Status, 2000-2010 (in millions)

0.6

0.9

1.4

3.3

Unauthorized MexicanImmigrant Children

U.S-Born Children ofUnauthorized Mexican

Parent(s)


42%

13%10%

7%6%

3%6% 5% 5%

15%

7%

23%

40%

CA TX NY FL IL NJ All Other

1990 (3.5 million)

2010 (11.2 million)

Unauthorized Spreading Away From Big 6 States

Percent of Total Unauthorized Migrant Population

20% --700,000

4.5 Million

Source: Estimates for 2010 based on March 2010 Current Population Survey (Passel and Cohn, 2011); for 1990 from Warren , 2001 based on various sources.

Dispersal of Undocumented Population

Unauthorized Immigrants 2010(11.2 million)

1,650,000 – 2,550,000 (2)

140,000 – 325,000 (11)400,000 – 825,000 (6)

55,000 – 120,000 (16)

Less than 45,000 (16)Source: Estimates based on March 2010 CPS

(Passel and Cohn, 2011);

2010 Composition Categories (US=28%)

Highest % Undocumented (40-56% of foreign-born) (19)

Lower % Undocumented (21-28%) (11)

High % Undocumented (30-38%) (9)

Lowest % Undocumented (<20%) (12)

New Growth --> High % Undocumented

Source: Estimates based on March 2010 CPS(Passel and Cohn, 2011);

21

36

5 5

20

California Texas Arizona Illinois All Others

1990 (4.5 Million)

1996 (6.7 Million)

2010 (12.4 Million)

Mexicans Lead DiversificationPercent of U.S. Mexicans

58% -- 2.5 million

40% -- 4.9 million

31%

12% -- 0.5 million

3.8 Million

Source: Estimates for 1990 based on 1990 Census; for 1996, from March CPS;for 2010, from augmented March CPS (Passel and Cohn, 2011).

SomeImpacts on

States

Unauthorized Workers Numbers andShares Increased through 2007

5.5

6.3 6.4 6.56.8

7.47.8

8.4 8.27.8 8.0

3.8%4.3% 4.4% 4.4% 4.6%

5.0% 5.2%5.5% 5.3%

5.1% 5.2%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Unauthorized immigrant workers

as share of labor force

Millions of

unauthorized immigrant workers


% Unauthorized of Labor Force, 2010

% Unauthorized of LF (US=5.2%)Very Highest (8.6%-10%) (4)

Below Average (2.0-3.9% (18)

Average (4.2%-5.6%) (12)

Above Average (6.1%-7.4%) (5)

Very Lowest (<1.7%) (12)Source: Estimates based on March 2010 CPS

(Passel and Cohn, 2011);

77.0%

5.0%1.8%

6.9%

16.1%13.3%

2.8%

U.S.-born parent Legal immigrant parent Unauthorized immigrant

parent

All children

US-born child

Immigrant child

1-in-15 of K-12 Students is theChild of an Unauthorized Immigrants

Percent of K-12

School Enrollment,

2010


% of K-12 Students w/ Unauth. Parents

% of K-12 Students with Unauthorized Parent(s)

(US=6.9% in 2010)

Very Highest (10%-18%) (5)

Well Below Average (2.0-3.5%) (11)

Below Average (3.8-6.4%) (15)

Average (6.7-7.6%) (7)

Very Lowest (<1.9%) (13)

18%

17%

10%

15%

13%

Source: Estimates based on March 2010 CPS(Passel and Cohn, 2011);

• Flows Down—Respond to Economy

• Enforcement May be Working-- Border Effectiveness Uncertain for Now-- Interior Laws Make Life Risky/Unpleasant

• Changing Age Structure in Mexico-- Smaller Birth Cohorts of ‘90s-- Fewer Labor Force Entrants Begin Now-- Lessening Pressure to Migrate

• Scale is Large (11 mil.) & Dispersed

• Networks & Culture Facilitate Flow

• Families, Not Just Individuals

What About the Future?

Thank You

Please E-mail or

Call Me at:

[email protected]

(202) 419-3625

www.pewhispanic.org

Jeffrey S. Passel, Ph.D.Pew Hispanic CenterPew Research Center

1615 L St., N.W.Washington, D.C. 20036

Jeffrey S. Passel Washington, DC New Patterns in US ......Jeffrey S. Passel Pew Hispanic Center...

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