Jd power kerrigan advisors presentation v11

36
Dealerships Are Far Too Valuable To Be Sold Any Other Way

Transcript of Jd power kerrigan advisors presentation v11

Page 1: Jd power kerrigan advisors presentation v11

Dealerships Are Far Too Valuable To Be Sold Any Other Way

Page 2: Jd power kerrigan advisors presentation v11

• Buy/Sell Activity • Market Drivers• Valuation Trends

Overview of Session

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Buy Sell Activity Today Lots of Participants Entering the Maze

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Source: The Banks Report

Number of Transactions2013 versus 2014

Acquisition Activity Grew 81% since 2013Buy/Sell Activity Increasing Monthly

2013 2014

114 Transac-tions

206 Transac-tions

81% Incre

ase

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2013 2014

21

33

9

10

Public Private

Source: The Banks Report

Number of Multi-Dealership Transactions 2013 versus 2014

Number of Multi-Dealership Transactions Grew 43% Since 2013Big Deals Are Getting Even Bigger

21% of the closed transactions

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Source: SEC Filings

Public Company Spending More Than Doubled Through Oct. 1st 2014 Lithia Acquisition of DCH Represented 42% of Acquisition Spending in US

Public Dealership Group Acquisition Spending in USSince 2006

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 YTD 2014

$803

$654

$283

$14

$211

$504 $502

$659

$489

362

Domestic Acquisitions Lithia-DCH Acquisition

$851

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Source: The Banks Report

2014 Public versus Private Dealership Buyer Activity (% of Franchises Acquired)

Private Buyers are Much More Active Today Private Buyers Are Increasingly Capable of Completing Large Transactions

Public21%

Private79%

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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

2022

1311

14

21

28

36

Source: Automotive News

Number of Private Dealership Groups with Greater than $1B in Revenue

Over 3 Times More

Number of Private Groups with Greater than $1 Billion in Sales More than Tripled since 2009

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An Incredible Rebound

Auto RetailAn Incredible Rebound

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Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-145M

7M

9M

11M

13M

15M

17M

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

SAAR Average 10 Year Treasury Yield

Seas

onal

ly A

djus

ted

Annu

al S

ellin

g Ra

te10 Year U

S Treasury Yield M

onthly Average Yield

Source: Automotive News and Yahoo Finance

SAAR Versus 10-Year Treasury Yield

Auto Retail Sales are Highly Sensitive to Interest Rates SAAR is Negatively Correlated with Interest Rates

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Source: NADA and Automotive News

Average Revenue per Dealership versus SAAR

Fewer Dealerships = Sales per Dealership at Record Levels Industry Healthier than Ever

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013$0

$5,000,000

$10,000,000

$15,000,000

$20,000,000

$25,000,000

$30,000,000

$35,000,000

$40,000,000

$45,000,000

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Annual Unit Sales SAAR

Units in m

illion

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20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

20122013

2014 Annualized

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Source: NADA and Kerrigan Advisors Analysis

Average Dealership Earnings

Average Dealership Earnings at Peak LevelsEarnings Far Above 2006 Levels, When Sales Were at 17 Million Level

17.4 M 16.5 M

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Floorplan

Finan

cing

US 10-Ye

ar Tre

asury

Corporate B

onds

High Yi

eld

S&P 500 10-Ye

ar Avg

MSCI R

eal E

state

10-Yr

Dealer

ship Retu

rns - Lu

xury

Multiples

Dealer

ship Retu

rns - N

on-Luxu

ry Multiples

2.0% 2.4% 3.1% 6.1%

8.0% 8.0%

15.8% 20.0%

Bonds

Source: Bloomberg, Morningstar, and Kerrigan Advisors Analysis. Analysis assumes average multiples and no improvement in earnings or leverage – working capital and assets represent 1 times earnings.

Low Yield Investment EnvironmentUnlevered Dealership Returns Look Very Attractive

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AutoNation’s Stock Price Relative to Bond Yield

Autonation 6.75% bonds with 2018 Maturity. Fixed coupon paid semi-annually

Cost of Capital Single Biggest Driver of Current Valuations Auto Retail Risk Low and Consolidation Opportunity High

6.0 %

4.5 %

3.0 %

1.5 %

0.0 %

Bond

Yie

ld

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70Stock Price

Volume

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More Sellers Coming To Market

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EXTERNAL FACTORS

Industry ConditionsOEM PerformanceFinancial Markets

Domestic Economy

INTERNAL FACTORS

Current ProfitsManagement

FacilitiesSales Effectiveness

Source: NADA

Biggest Driver of Buy/Sell Market – External Factors Internal Factors Are Irrelevant, if External Factors Aren’t Strong

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Values Have Risen ConsiderablyThe Average Deal is A Big Deal

Average Dealership Estimated ValueEstimated Blue Sky Value 2004 2014Average Pre-Tax Earnings Per NADA $0.6 M $1.1 MBlue Sky Multiple 3.50x 4.50x

Est. Blue Sky Value Plus Working Capital and Assets (1) $2.5 M $6.2 M

Estimated Property ValueEstimated Dealership Rent Expense $0.3 M $0.4 M

Est. Property Value (2) $3.7 M $5.7 M

Estimated Total Value $6.2 M $11.9 M

(1) Includes working capital and assets equal to 1.0x dealership earnings

(2) Assumes property valued at a 9% cap rate in 2004 and 7.5% cap rate

Value of Average Dealership Group

2004 2014

$18.6 M

$35.6 M

91% Increase

Assumes 3 dealerships per group

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Values Have Risen ConsiderablyThe Larger Groups’ Average Value Estimated at $225M

2006 2014

$43.3 M

$117.2 M$80.3 M

$107.9 M

Blue Sky Value Property Value

Average Blue Sky and Property Values Automotive News No. 11- 125 Dealership Groups

$123.6 M

$225.1 M

Source: Automotive News 2014 Top 125 Dealership Group List

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Publics’ Ability to Make Large Acquisitions LimitedOnly 36 since 2004

Estimated Number of Acquisitions by the Public Dealership Groups Valued Above $50 Million

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

5

2

5 5

23

1

3

12

1

1

2

2

1

Estimated Transactions between $50M and $100M Est. Transactions Greater than $100M

Source: SEC Public Filings and Kerrigan Advisors Analysis

36 in 11 years – average less than 4 per year

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Public Companies’ Capital AllocationYTD 3Q 2014

Publics Have Options for Their Capital and Limits on Acquisitions Stock Buy Backs, International Investments, New Business Ventures

Source: SEC Filings

Public Alternative Investments

AutoNation AutoNation Direct Stock buybacks Branded F&I products

Penske Commercial truck dealerships International investments

Group 1 International investments

Sonic Used car platform One-Sonic-One platform Captive finance company

Asbury Used car platform

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“This is just the beginning for Berkshire Hathaway Automotive.”

Warren Buffet, October 2nd, CNBC

New Capital Investors Meet Dealers Need for Exit OptionsCharacteristics of Auto Retail Ideal for Private Equity

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Six Publicly-Traded Dealerships

Top 20 Dealership Grps

Top 125 Dealership Grps

5.0% 8.0%

16.4%

Dealership Market Share

Highly Fragmented Industry - A Lot of Room for ConsolidationTremendous Opportunity to Grow Through Acquisition

Source: Automotive News

83.6% of dealerships ownedBy small groups and individuals

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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

24.3%

30.7%

27.6%25.1% 24.3% 23.5% 22.7% 22.0%

12.4%

18.0%

24.8%

28.0% 27.8% 29.0%

Industry Consistently Produces VERY High Return on EquityHighly Attractive to Outside Capital

Average Dealership Return on Equity

24.8%

Source: NADA

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Required Growth in Pre-Tax Earnings Year 1Pre-Tax ROI # 3% 25% 50% 100%

10% ## 9.3x 11.5x 14.0x 19.0x15% ## 5.9x 7.3x 9.0x 12.3x20% ## 4.2x 5.3x 6.5x 9.0x25% ## 3.1x 4.0x 5.0x 7.0x

Returns Meet Private Equity and Family Office ExpectationsFamily Office Versus Private Equity

Analysis assumes working capital and assets represent 1 times earnings.

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Kerrigan Advisors Blue Sky Multiples – Fourth Quarter 2014 Top Volume Franchises Command Higher Multiples

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Kerrigan Advisors Blue Sky Multiples – Fourth Quarter 2014 Top Luxury Multiples Have Few Limits

* Note: Jaguar would command the lower multiples and Land Rover would command the higher

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Limited Supply of Luxury Franchises Results in Incredible Values Economics 101

Number of Franchises

Source: Automotive News

Mercedes-Benz

BMW Audi Lexus Porsche

361338

280

234

189

Compares to over3,000+ Chevrolet and 3,000+ Ford franchises

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Source: SEC Filings and Kerrigan Advisors Analysis – apply 7.5% cap rate to real estate holdings

Estimated Public Company Blue Sky Multiples Q4 2014

Public Blue Sky Multiples Reflect Liquidity Premium Average Private Multiple ~50% of Public Multiples

AUTOMOTIVE Q4:FY2014 MULTIPLES AUTOMOTIVE Q3:FY2014 MULTIPLES

($ in millions) Total

Market Cap (as of 12/31/14) $18,807Net Assets (1,585) Est. Blue Sky 17,222

Operating Income 2,414 Rent Adjustment (474) LTM Adjusted EBIT $1,940Blue Sky Multiple 8.9x Average Private Company Multiples: 4.5x

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LowUnit Sales

Per Dealership

High Blue Sky

Multiples

LowBlue SkyMultiples

HighUnit Sales

Per Dealership

Profits Driven by Franchise

Profits Driven by Operator

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Source: Moody’s and Kerrigan Advisors

Manufacturer’s Financial Strength – A Factor that Drives Blue Sky Value The Higher the Credit Rating, The Higher the Multiple

ManufacturerMoody's Credit

RatingCredit Rating Description

Toyota/Lexus Aa3 Very High QualityHonda A1 High QualityBMW A2 High Quality

Mercedes A3 High QualityVW/Porsche/Audi A3 High Quality

Nissan A3 High QualityHyundai/Kia Baa1 Medium Quality

GM Baa1 Medium QualityFord Baa3 Medium Quality

Chrysler B1 Speculative

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Average Blue Sky Multiple

AdjustedBlue Sky Multiple

Earnings Growth

Expectations

Buyer Demand Real Estate

Market Vehicle

Preference

Higher Multiple

Lower Multiple

LowGrowth

LowDemand

High Rent/Building Project

FranchiseUnsuitable

FranchiseHighly

Suitable

HighGrowth

HighDemand

Low Rent/Image

Drivers of Franchise Multiple Variability Four Key Factors

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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

11.6M

12.8M

14.4M

15.5M

16.5M17M 17.4M

Annual Vehicle Sales Sales Growth Rate

Source: Automotive News and Kerrigan Advisors Analysis/Estimates

Return to 17.4 Million Sales Means Slower Future Growth Sales Rebound Near Completion?

FON

12%

10%

13%

8%

6%

4%

1%

Annual Auto Sales and % Growth

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33Source: NADA

Change in Average Dealership Pre-Tax Earnings Year over Year

Dealership Earnings Growth is Slowing Indicator Valuations Reaching Peak Levels

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Source: Yahoo Finance

Public Dealership Groups’ Average P/E Multiple

28% Decline

Public P/E Multiples Down 28% Since 2010 Leading Indicator for Private Multiples?

22.2x

16.0x

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Source: Yahoo Finance

Public Dealership Stock Index Compared to the S&P

Public Dealership Stocks Outperform the S&P 500 Wall Street Thinks Auto Retail is a Great Investment

Jan 10Jul 10 Jan 11Jul 11 Jan 12Jul 12 Jan 13Jul 13 Jan 14Jul 1480

130

180

230

280

330

380

430

480

S&P 500

+81.7%

+324.9%

4x higher

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Picture of Golden Gate BridgeNext Peak?

2015? “In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield.”

Warren Buffet