Japan Fund presentation (1440 Kb)
Transcript of Japan Fund presentation (1440 Kb)
020 7648 4300 [email protected] www.bedlamplc.com
20 Abchurch Lane, London, EC4N 7BB
BEDLAM ASSET MANAGEMENT
BEDLAM JAPAN FUND
2
• Fund has delivered a total return of -0.7% (to 30 June 2007) since launch (1 November 2004), compared to cash (13.4%) and to the equity index (34.0%).
• Performance in 2006 hit by weak yen and domestic mid-cap focus. Despite this corporate profitability at all-time highs and leverage at 50 year lows. Domestic mid-caps offer some of the best value globally.
• Fund bets are: Banks (16%): beneficiary of corporate profitability as corporations borrow
and NPLs fall. Property (10%): best value global property market. Rental rates now rising. Autos (8%): truck sector consolidation and improved Asian demand. Electronics (0%): geared to China/US slowdown IT & Telecoms (7%): beneficiary of corporate expansion & IT investment.
• Buy Japan Fund : Domestic recovery story to continue as corporates reverse conservative approach to expansion and wages in 1H07. The yen should strengthen in 2007.
Summary
3
Investment objectives delivered
Low stock turnover Volatility
Bedlam Japan NAV performance
* Performance data to 30.06.07; ** A & B shares launch date 01 November 2004.
Excess returns over cash and the index
Fund Turnover
31.8%35.3%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2006 2005
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
2004 2005 2006 2007 Since Launch
SD of NAV SD of Daily Index
Japan Equity Risk free Japan Japan
TR Index rate Fund A Fund B
20044.7% 0.8% 4.7% 4.7%
200540.0% 4.7% 48.6% 42.8%
2006 -8.7% 4.9% -29.4% -29.1%
2007* 0.2% 2.8% -9.9% -9.3%
Since Launch** 34.0% 13.4% -0.7% -3.6%
Japan Fund A Share NAV (£) since launch
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
31/10/2004 30/06/2007
4
Performance - Attribution Analysis (1)30th June 2006 to 31st December 2006
KEY POSITIVE DRIVERS
SectorsProperty +1.1%Pharmaceuticals +0.2%
Stocks Isuzu Motors +1.2%Aeon Mall +0.8%Mitsui Fudosan +0.2%Astellas Pharma +0.2%
Overall Fund Return 2H 2006 -14.9%
KEY NEGATIVE DRIVERS
SectorsCurrency (JPY vs GBP) -10.2%Financials -3.7%Consumer -3.7%Put options -2.7%
Stocks Sega Sammy -1.4%Waida Manufacturing -1.2%Gentosha -1.2%Eighteenth Bank -1.2%Chiba Bank -1.2%Imperial Hotel -0.8%Tokyu Store Chain -0.8%
N.B. overall fund return figure is not the sum of the above
5
Performance - Attribution Analysis (2)31st December 2006 to 30th June 2007
KEY POSITIVE DRIVERS
SectorsNone
Stocks Isuzu Motors +0.7%Mitsui Fudosan +0.6%Shinagawa Refractories +0.5%Tokyo Tatemono +0.4%Parco +0.4%
Overall Fund Return 2007 to date -9.9%
KEY NEGATIVE DRIVERS
SectorsFinancials -1.7%IT/Telecoms -1.7%Consumer -1.3%Support Services -1.2%Industrials -0.6%Media/Entertainment -0.6%
Stocks Nihon Unisys -0.9%Hamakyorex -0.8%Nippon -0.7%Bank of Yokohama -0.7%Kenedix -0.7%Daifuku -0.6%Gentosha -0.5%
N.B. overall fund return figure is not the sum of the above
6
Sector breakdown
Big bets are: Industrials (25%), Financials (16%), Consumer (16%).
Fund Sector Weightings
Support Services10%
Financials16%
IT & Telecoms7%
Industrials25%
Media & Entertainment
11%
Property10%
Cash5%
Consumer16%
7
Global Overview
• UK and US credit cycle to deteriorate as housing market sides.
• US slowdown results in an increase in the global savings glut. Good for yielding sectors (e.g. telecom) but bad for cyclicals (energy and base metals). Wild card here is whether Asians start consuming!
• Industry consolidation and restructuring to be a continuing global trend in the face of slowing top line growth as companies are forced into growth by acquisition and rationalisation. Good for mid caps and quasi-monopolies.
• Wage growth to improve in both Germany and Japan fuelling domestic demand. Good for domestic corporate profitability and currency.
• Precious metals to benefit as central banks try to inflate away consumer debt mountain.
• Euro to be the strongest currency versus the dollar, yen and sterling.
8
Where the Fund will invest
• Regional banks & property – beneficiary of the credit cycle upturn.
• IT Systems providers (e.g. Hitachi Systems).
• Sector consolidation plays (e.g. Isuzu, Fukuoka Financial).
• Japan consumption plays (e.g. Parco, HIS & Imperial Hotel)
• Corporate restructuring (e.g. Tokyu Store & Hamakyorex)
• Companies with accelerating free cash flow (e.g. NTT)
• “Quasi monopolies” (e.g. Waida)
9
Where the Fund won’t invest
• Retail sector.
• Exporters geared to global growth.
• Electronics sector.
• Commodities geared to global growth (base metals & energy)
10
• There is now a production capacity shortage. Companies have been too conservative in their expansion plans – supply is the problem not demand!
• Good for future investment, loans growth and inflationary trends.
• Capital expenditure already up 16.6% in 2Q06: fastest in 16 years.
Source: Capital Economics
Production capacity-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Production CapacityDiffusion Index(Inverted)
Capacity "Insufficient"
Capacity "Excessive"
11
Machine orders backlog (no. of months)
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
• Demand is robust - machinery demand back up to all time highs.
12
Bank Lending
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
07/2001 01/2002 07/2002 01/2003 07/2003 01/2004 07/2004 01/2005 07/2005 01/2006 07/2006
3,900
4,000
4,100
4,200
4,300
4,400
4,500
4,600
4,700
Outstanding loans (RHS) % Change y-o-y (LHS)
Bank Lending
Yen/ trillion
• After rising in 2H05 outstanding loans have flat lined due to weak loan demand from public sector and housing.
• Loan demand now being driven by corporate expansion; consumer demand should pick up in 1H07 as wage growth improves.
13
Unemployment vs. Wages3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
-5.0
-4.0-3.0
-2.0-1.0
0.0
1.02.0
3.04.0
5.0
Unemployment Rate (%, Inverted, LHS) Wage Earnings (3m % y/y, RHS)
Unemployment lower, wage growth higher
• Wage growth remains lacklustre. Nominal wage growth fell -0.2% y-y in November.
• Strong investment and tightening Labour Market should feed through to wage growth.
Source: Capital Economics
Unemployment vs Wages
14
Labour Shortages
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57
Large Non-ManufacturersLarge Manufacturers
"Insufficient" employment (labour shortages)
"Excessive" employment (labour surpluses)
• There are now labour shortages for both the manufacturing and service sectors.
• Should lead to improved wage growth. Nippon Steel to hike wages in 2Q07(its 1st hike in 6 years). Other companies to follow.
15
Yields on Bank Loans
• Loan yields now benefiting from July rate hike with yields on new loans rising to 1.64% in October from 1.5% in September. Yields on existing loans also rising.
• Good news for bank profitability.
Yields on Bank Loans
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
1993 1994 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2003 2004 2005 2006
%
New Loans Existing Loans
16
Commercial property
• Office vacancy rates have fallen from 8.3% in 2Q03 to now under 3.0% with broad demand coming from all corporate sectors.
• Commercial rental rates now rising for first time in 17 years.
Tokyo vacancy rates and rents(new and existing bldgs in the five main wards)
16.0
17.0
18.0
19.0
20.0
21.0
22.0
10/98 10/99 10/00 10/01 10/02 10/03 10/04
Asking rents per tsubo
(thousand yen)
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Vacancy rates(%)
Avg. asking rents (5 wards)Avg. vacancy rate (5 wards)
Source: Citigroup
17
Electronic Parts and Components
Electronic Parts and Components
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200x
Production L.H.S. Shipment L.H.S. Inventory Ratio R.H.S.
• Inventory levels and shipments of electronic goods at high levels
• Electronic production (and manufacturer’s earnings) at serious risk from US/ Global slowdown.
18
ROE vs Price to Book
• Both Japan and Germany stand out as good value with potential to leverage up the curve
• Spain, US and to a lesser extent UK are most at risk due to bad value and potential de-leveraging.
19
STOCK EXAMPLES
20
• Office vacancy rates below 2% with rental rates rising between 4-6% per annum.
• Sizeable multi-use properties set to come on-stream in 1Q07.
Stock Examples: Mitsui FudosanMitsui Fudosan (yen)
900
1400
1900
2400
2900
3400
3900
Ja
n-0
4
Ju
n-0
4
De
c-0
4
Ju
n-0
5
De
c-0
5
Ju
n-0
6
De
c-0
6
Entry Price: 1626
Target Price: 4090
21
• Beneficiary of global consolidation amongst truck makers.
• Grabbing market share in Japan and growing strong in Asia/Middle East.
• Cheapest trucker globally with Toyota having just taken a 5% stake.
Stock Examples: Isuzu
Isuzu (yen)
150200
250300350400
450500550
600650
Jan
-04
Jun
-04
De
c-04
Jun
-05
De
c-05
Jun
-06
De
c-06
Entry Price: 410
Target Price: 1124
22
• In contrast to the sector loans growth expanding (75% of loan book to SMEs) in 1H06 and non-performing loans falling.
• Industry consolidator within its region – set to merge with two smaller banks in 2007.
Stock Examples: Fukuoka FinancialsFukuoka Financials (yen)
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
Ja
n-0
4
Ju
n-0
4
De
c-0
4
Ju
n-0
5
De
c-0
5
Ju
n-0
6
De
c-0
6
Entry Price: 769
Target Price: 1275
23
• Nihon Unisys seeing strong earnings growth from increased demand (particularly financial sector) and cost cutting.
• License fee to Unisys falls away in FY03/08 to Y5b from Y15b in FY03/07.
• By far the cheapest IT service company.
Stock Examples: Nihon Unisys
Nihon Unisys (yen)
700
900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
2100
2300
2500
Ja
n-0
4
Ju
n-0
4
De
c-0
4
Ju
n-0
5
De
c-0
5
Ju
n-0
6
De
c-0
6
Entry Price: 1909
Target Price: 2420
24
• Bedlam at a glance i
• Investment Process ii
• Japan Fund:
– Characteristics iii– Risk Controls iv
• Value-added capacity constraints v
Appendices
25
Bedlam at a glance• Steady growth in funds under management
to £220m in 4 years
• All mandates are absolute return from equity investment
• One of the strongest balance sheets in the industry
• The only totally transparent funds in the UK
• 90 professional shareholders
UK/Global blend
Specialist geographic
Global
UK
FUM by client type (total £220m)
FUM by mandate type (total £220m)
Public funds
Pension funds/charities
E/M
Japan
Global
UK
Europe
Multi-manager
HNW
Segregated Accounts
Total Assets Under Management (£m)
0
50
100
150
200
250
2003 2004 2005 2006
i
26
Investment process
• Single investment process solely targeting absolute returns, independent of market movements, through investing in a company’s cash earnings cycle.
• Key valuation filters and thematic screens (credit cycle and capacity) generate a
short list of stocks to analyse.
• All holdings are internally modelled and have the following attributes:– Stable or rising margins.– Clear earnings catalysts (over 2 -year forecast period).– Good free cash flow to meet future capex and dividends obligations.– Target price must show a minimum 20% upside to hurdle rate (10 year government
bond yield + 3% equity risk premium).
• A team-driven approach based upon adherence to proven investment process.– Stripping out market emotion and noise while ensuring returns are repeatable.
ii
27
Japan fund characteristicsas at 30 June 2007
Average Weighted Market Cap at 30 June 2007 £5.1bn
Fund Market Cap Breakdown (GBP)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
<250m 250m-750m 750m-1.5bn 1.5bn-5bn 5bn-12.5bn 12.5bn>
Japan Fund Sectors vs FTSE Japan Index
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
ConsumerHealthcareFinancials &Property
General IndustrialsI.T. & Telecoms
Fund +/- Index
5%Max 60%Ability to use cash
0%Max 100%Ability to use derivatives
35.3%20-40% p.a.Low average turnover
3025-50Concentrated Investments
Current portfolioTypical portfolio
5%Max 60%Ability to use cash
0%Max 100%Ability to use derivatives
35.3%20-40% p.a.Low average turnover
3025-50Concentrated Investments
Current portfolioTypical portfolio
1.01.01.00.00.3TOPIX
0.90.81.1-12.9-0.5BedlamJapan
CorrelationR Sq.BetaAnnual Alpha
Annual Sharpe
Statistics
1.01.01.00.00.3TOPIX
0.90.81.1-12.9-0.5BedlamJapan
CorrelationR Sq.BetaAnnual Alpha
Annual Sharpe
Statistics
28
Risk controls
Sector Index Weight %
Max fund Weight %
Resources 24.1 40
General Industrials
4.8 30
Consumer Goods
17.5 40
Media & entertainment
3.6 20
Healthcare 9.5 30
Utilities 5.2 20
Financials & property
28.9 45
IT and Telecoms
6.4 30
• Must be at least 40% invested in Japan equities
• No holding more than 10% of a fund
• Combined total holdings over 5% may not exceed 40% of the funds
• Stocks are categorised into small, medium and large cap with max. size limits of 3%, 5% and 7.5% at cost
Sector limits
• Allowed for Efficient Portfolio Management purpose only
• Up to 100% of any fund’s equity portfolio can be protected at any one time
• Maximum cost of 1% per quarter and 4% per annum of the total value of the fund
Individual Stock limits
Use of derivatives
iv
29
Value-added capacity constraints
v
Public Funds Limits (£m)
Emerging Markets Fund
(175)
Japan Fund(250) Global Fund
(300)
UK Fund(250)
Europe Fund(250)
Total Asset Class Limits (£m)
Europe(1,200)
UK(1,200)
Global(3,000)
Japan(1,200)
Emerging Markets(1,200)