Jan Haverkamp. Branduolinė Baltijos ateitis: rizikos ir perspektyvos
-
Upload
darius-pocevicius -
Category
Education
-
view
999 -
download
6
description
Transcript of Jan Haverkamp. Branduolinė Baltijos ateitis: rizikos ir perspektyvos
![Page 1: Jan Haverkamp. Branduolinė Baltijos ateitis: rizikos ir perspektyvos](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081422/557c31fdd8b42aad418b4fb8/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
THE BALTICNUCLEAR
PHASE-OUT
Risks and Chances
Ir. Jan HaverkampGreenpeace
EU policy campaigner dirty energy
![Page 2: Jan Haverkamp. Branduolinė Baltijos ateitis: rizikos ir perspektyvos](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081422/557c31fdd8b42aad418b4fb8/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Nuclear Baltics
![Page 3: Jan Haverkamp. Branduolinė Baltijos ateitis: rizikos ir perspektyvos](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081422/557c31fdd8b42aad418b4fb8/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Nuclear Phase-outVISAGINAS• No investors – KEPCO out• LV, EE, PL interest doubtful• No financiers• 3500 – 4500 €/kWe
BELARUS• Finances will be difficult• Public and international resistance
KALININGRAD• Largest chance• Strategic investor?• Does Germany dare?
![Page 4: Jan Haverkamp. Branduolinė Baltijos ateitis: rizikos ir perspektyvos](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081422/557c31fdd8b42aad418b4fb8/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Risks of Nuclear Baltics - Safety
VISAGINAS• Design?• EIA: too low source term• Regulatory (in)experience• Skills
BELARUS• Near Vilnius• Design?• Regulatory inexperience
KALININGRAD• No public scrutiny• No international EIA• No EU regulatory standard
![Page 5: Jan Haverkamp. Branduolinė Baltijos ateitis: rizikos ir perspektyvos](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081422/557c31fdd8b42aad418b4fb8/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Risks of Nuclear Baltics - Security
VISAGINAS• Design?• Political long term stability?
BELARUS• Political instability?
KALININGRAD• German nationalist extremism?• Cold war?• Vulnerability grid
![Page 6: Jan Haverkamp. Branduolinė Baltijos ateitis: rizikos ir perspektyvos](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081422/557c31fdd8b42aad418b4fb8/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Risks of Nuclear Baltics - Waste
VISAGINAS• Legacy Ignalina• No suitable underground• No suitable technique• Lack of stable financial structures• Nothing in EIA
BELARUS• Idem
KALININGRAD• Idem• Transports to Russia
![Page 7: Jan Haverkamp. Branduolinė Baltijos ateitis: rizikos ir perspektyvos](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081422/557c31fdd8b42aad418b4fb8/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Risks of Nuclear Baltics – Energy Security
VISAGINAS• No proper Energy Strategy based on scenario comparison• Danger of stop on development until on-line• Danger of coming in saturated market – threatening RE inv.• Inflexible grid development• Barrier to RE development• Dependence on nuclear fuel politically unstable countries• Lack of sufficient back-up
BELARUS and KALININGRAD• Idem
![Page 8: Jan Haverkamp. Branduolinė Baltijos ateitis: rizikos ir perspektyvos](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081422/557c31fdd8b42aad418b4fb8/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Risks of Nuclear Baltics - Economics
VISAGINAS• 3500 – 4500 €/kWe• FOK – increasing costs and construction time• Regulatory inexperience• Too high debt for country• Lack of means for RE and EE
BELARUS• Too high state debt
KALININGRAD• Russian political weapon
• Price• Participation strat. inv.
![Page 9: Jan Haverkamp. Branduolinė Baltijos ateitis: rizikos ir perspektyvos](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081422/557c31fdd8b42aad418b4fb8/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Advantages of Nuclear Baltics
none
except for short term interests nuclear elite
![Page 10: Jan Haverkamp. Branduolinė Baltijos ateitis: rizikos ir perspektyvos](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081422/557c31fdd8b42aad418b4fb8/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Chances of a Nuclear-free Baltics
Potentials
www.inforse.org/europe/VisionBaltic.htm
![Page 11: Jan Haverkamp. Branduolinė Baltijos ateitis: rizikos ir perspektyvos](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081422/557c31fdd8b42aad418b4fb8/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Energy Security• No dependency on foreign fuel• Decentralised technology – no large scale disruption• More spread ownership
Economics• Long term: lower costs• More employment• Spread financial risks
Chances of a Nuclear-free Baltics
![Page 12: Jan Haverkamp. Branduolinė Baltijos ateitis: rizikos ir perspektyvos](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081422/557c31fdd8b42aad418b4fb8/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Policy Needs Now• Get realistic: stop nuclear plans • Work out different energy policy scenarios• Re-focus human and financial capacity to EE and RE• Social-economic plan for Ignalina / Visaginas Region• Full transparency in the debate (Aarhus / ACN process)