JAMES STREET PRECINCT BRISBANE · The James Street Precinct’s impact on the Fortitude Valley,...
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JAMES STREET PRECINCT BRISBANE LOCATION AND MARKET OVERVIEW
Transcript of JAMES STREET PRECINCT BRISBANE · The James Street Precinct’s impact on the Fortitude Valley,...
JAMES STREET PRECINCT BRISBANELOCATION AND MARKET OVERVIEW
JAMES STREET PRECINCT LOCATION & MARKET OVERVIEW1
JAMES STREET ONE OF BRISBANE’S PREMIER RETAIL PRECINCTSSituated in the urban renewal precinct of Fortitude Valley, the James Street Precinct is located approximately one kilometre from Brisbane’s CBD. Offering a mixture of specialty retail and food and beverage facilities, a key anchor of the precinct is the James Street Market which provides five fresh food retailers, whilst a further six restaurants, eight cafes and bars and 35 specialty retail tenants extend along each side of James Street.
The precinct also comprises a selection of other uses which include industry or education establishments (such as the James Street Cooking School and other Colleges and services) as well as beauty/health, interior and exterior design and home wares and furniture stores.
Furthermore, there are two art galleries and a four screen cinema which is operated by Palace Cinemas.
The region immediately surrounding the James Street Precinct has undergone a significant change of face since 2002, partly brought about by the residential population growth and the tightly held retail offering within the James Street Precinct. Since 2002 approximately 40,000m2 of retail space, and 100,000m2 of commercial space has been delivered in the surrounding precinct. More recently since 2010, approximately 760 residential dwellings have entered the James Street Precinct – with the retail and lifestyle amenity on offer providing a strong driver for residential development.
SHAPING THE JAMES STREET PRECINCT
STRUCTURAL UPLIFTThe James Street Precinct’s impact on the Fortitude Valley, Newstead and New Farm markets is a great example of structural uplift and place making. Looking into how the James Street Precinct, has affected the local residential market is testament to the benefits of
a well- planned, managed and executed urban renewal precinct that follow the characteristics of new urbanism – with the by-product being a desirable, lifestyle driven precinct resulting in high demand and strong capital growth.
Completion of Centro on James Stage I
Completion of Centro on James Stage III
Implementation of the Fortitude Valley Neighbourhood Plan
Completion of Centro on James Stage II
Completion of Emporium Commercial Buildings
James Street Markets OpenedEmporium Apartments Launch
1998–2003 1999 2000 2001 2002 2004
LARGE SCALE MULTIPLE USE DEVELOPMENT CRITERIA
� Large scale developments � Multiple Use (Residential, Retail, Commercial) � Highly diverse product range � High amenity provision � Aligns with surrounding infrastructure � Enables elements of traditional neighbourhoods � High levels of Urban Design
� High levels of walkability & connectivity � A Region changing catalyst for growth � Site control limits fragmentation and increases
development vision � Provides critical mass to a precinct linked to
Principles of Master Planned Communities
Median apartment prices within the James Street precinct have increased by 4.4 per cent per annum since the inception of the Fortitude Valley Urban Renewal project.
REPORT SUMMARY
4.4%GROWTH
P.A
Nearly half the households within the precinct earn more than $104,000 per annum, registering a 35% increase between 2001 and 2011 Census periods.
35%INCREASE IN 10 YRS
The James Street precinct has positively influenced the local residential apartment market, providing a structural uplift, driving historic demand and capital growth.
DEMAND & CAPITAL GROWTH
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TENERIFFEPARK
CENTENARYPLACE
CATHEDRALSQUARE
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tarragi ndihi l l rese rve
BREAKFAST CREEK R
D
ANN ST
WIC
KHAM S
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CLEM
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ES TU
NN
EL
BA
RR
Y P
DE
BO
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RD
INNER CITY BYP
BR
UN
SWIC
K ST
GIPPS ST
STO
RY
BR
IDG
E
NEWSTEAD
FORTITUDE VALLEY STATION
Central
2JAMES STREET PRECINCT LOCATION & MARKET OVERVIEW
JAMES STREET PRECINCT MAP For the purpose of this study, Urbis has specifically focussed on the catchment within walking distance (700m) of the ever-evolving mixed-use James Street Precinct.
As recognised by the level of development that has entered the market in the last 15 years within proximity to James Street, the precinct benefits a large number of apartment residents.
The James Street Precinct provides a diverse population (including nearby office workers and a significant number of surrounding residents) with strong surrounding attractors including the CBD and Fortitude Valley entertainment precinct.
OFF-THE-PLAN AND NEW APARTMENT PROJECTSYEAR BUILDING NAME VENDOR COUNT
2000Heritage On The Park Meandarra Farms Pty Ltd 22Newstead Commercial Village Watpac Developments Pty Ltd 26
2001
Time Square Yinton Pty Ltd 23Arbitare Cadrona Pty Ltd 34One 20 Brizney Holdings Pty Ltd 17East Village James Street Precinct Pty Ltd 30
2002
Ultra Apartments BHW Projects Pty Ltd 62FV4006 Apartments Tom Dooley Investments Pty Ltd 39Emporium Anthony John Group Pty Ltd 267Viva Apartments 38 Robertson Pty Ltd 44
2003V Human Space Alfred Street Developments Pty Ltd 96The Degree Cosmopolitan Developments Pty Ltd 47
2004Profile Apartments Savve Developments Pty Ltd 11The Establishment Apartments Urban Living (Qld) Pt Ltd 47
2005 24 Masters Meridien Developments Pty Ltd 30
2007XO Living Apartments Garlant Pty Ltd 10Paragon P & W Enterprises Pty Ltd 31
2009Aris Brisbane Housing Company Limited 65550 Brunswick TD & JA Holdings Pty Ltd 70
2010 M&A– Connor Street 100 Mclachlan Street Pty Ltd 223
2011Precinct Apartments Drew Group Pty Ltd 47Mosaic Residential Mosaic Apartments Pty Ltd 136Brooklyn On Brookes Metro (Fortitude Valley) Pty Ltd 41
2012Atrio DG Assets Pty Ltd 76Kurv Terrace Street Pty Ltd 58
2013Alex Perry Chrome Ap No.1 Pty Ltd 93Lucca Brunswick 676 Developments Pty Ltd 13
2014Casa Newstead Dibcorp Investments Pty Ltd 31Modello Apartments Silverstone Enterprises No.2 Pty Ltd 42
YEAR OF FIRST SALE
1995–1999
2000–2004
2005–2009
2010–2014
700M RADIUS
JAMES ST PRECINCT
NEW FARM PARK
BRISBANE CBD
SITE
HOWARD SMITH WHARVES
JAMES STREET PRECINCT LOCATION & MARKET OVERVIEW3
The annual average price growth indicates the capital growth per annum broken down into holding periods of 2, 5, 10 & 15 year periods with the initial two years indicating the highest levels of annual growth, followed by a reducing figure as inconsistent level of new stock entered the market within the precinct. The 15-year growth of 4.4 per cent represents strong annual growth, and is in line with the introduction of the Fortitude Valley Urban Renewal Precinct and introduction of major mixed-use developments delivered in the three stages of Centro on James Street.
The Apartment Sales Cycle to the right, identifies the median apartment price on annual basis for new apartment projects within the James Street Precinct. The graph identifies the median price growth between June 2000 and December 2015 as well as overlaying a number of key historic announcements and development milestones within the precinct as well as some key macro-economic that may have impacted the median apartment price.
The Sales Cycle displays elements of how some of these factors may have affected the James Street Precinct apartment market and created structural uplift within the precinct.
New apartments located within the James Street Precinct have registered strong median price growth since the launch of major retail anchors, Centro on James and the James Street Markets in the early 2000’s.
15 YEAR GROWTH
10 YEAR GROWTH
5 YEAR GROWTH
2 YEAR GROWTH
LONG TERM RESIDENTIAL GROWTHJAMES STREET PRECINCT
4.4% P.A
Prepared by Urbis; Source: APM PriceFinder
JAMES STREET RESIDENTIAL MARKET
HOWARD SMITH WHARVES
Howard Smith Wharves is to be redeveloped into a vibrant riverside destination over a 3.4-hectare site under the northern end of Brisbane’s iconic Storey Bridge.
Set to offer a world class recreation, lifestyle, event and tourism destination providing access to and from the Brisbane River, Howard Smith Wharves is set to be transformed into a riverside precinct with more than 2.7 hectares of public open space, a 164 room hotel, an exhibition centre and restaurants and cafes.
Preserving the sites historical significance, the Howard Smith vision is expected to create a new riverside precinct loved by Brisbane’s residents and visitors alike. Positioned to drive a continued residential shift to the inner city, Howard Smith Wharves is highlighted by its its connectivity to New Farm Riverwalk, James Street Lifestyle Precinct and the Brisbane CBD, offering unprecedented accessibility for local residents.
HOWARD SMITH WHARVES CONCEPT
4.4% P.A
7.8% P.A
3.2% P.A
4JAMES STREET PRECINCT LOCATION & MARKET OVERVIEW
The structural uplift becomes prominent as the completion of the staged Centro on James Street completed in the early 2000’s. This paired with the overarching announcement of the Fortitude Valley Urban Renewal initiative and launch of the Emporium development on Ann Street allowed the residential apartment market to record strong price growth between 2000 and 2006.
Between 2006 and 2010, the James Street Precinct’s apartment market saw dramatic fluctuation in price due to both, the limited new apartment product entering the market and the uncertainty surrounding the overall economy throughout 2008 and 2009 which left potential investors sitting on their hands, unsure of investment potential within the precinct.
From 2010, the James Street Precinct has gone from strength to strength, with the large scale residential developments including M&A and Mosaic both setting the benchmark for future density within the precinct.
Development applications totalling more than $50M across 2013 and 2014 have similarly increased confidence to invest in the precinct. This paired with the introduction of new first-class retail brands and refurbishment of existing retail and commercial buildings have all played a role in the 7.8% per annum apartment price increase that has been recorded in the last 24 months.
Prepared by Urbis; Source: APM PriceFinder, Urbis*includes new commercial office, hotel, accomodation and retail.
APARTMENT SALES CYCLE – TIME SERIESJAMES STREET PRECINCT
AVERAGE APARTMENT PRICE – TIME SERIESJAMES STREET PRECINCT
Prepared by Urbis; Source: APM PriceFinder, Urbis
MEDIAN UNIT PRICE 700M JAMES ST RADIUS
$245,000
$533,500
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
$550,000
$600,000
2000
JUN
2000
DEC
2001
JUN
2001
DEC
2002
JUN
2002
DEC
2003
JUN
2003
DEC
2004
JUN
2004
DEC
2005
JUN
2005
DEC
2006
JUN
2006
DEC
2007
JUN
2007
DEC
2008
JUN
2008
DEC
2009
JUN
2009
DEC
2010
JUN
2010
DEC
2011
JUN
2011
DEC
2012
JUN
2012
DEC
2013
JUN
2013
DEC
2014
JUN
2014
DEC
2015
JUN
2015
DEC
MED
IAN
PRI
CE
PERIOD (HALF YEAR)
START OF FORTITUDE VALLEY URBAN RENEWAL
HQ COMMERCIAL COMPLETED
90% GROWTH4.4% PER ANNUM
(2001–2015)
EMPORIUM HOTEL COMPLETED
LAUNCH OF APPROX.450 APARTMENTS IN12 MONTHS
EMPORIUM APARTMENTSSELL OUT
REDEVELOPMENTOF NEWSTEADGASWORKS PRECINCT
$3.4M REDEVELOPMENT OF BRUNSWICK ST MALL
2013 – 2014
$50M+ INVESTMENT ON JAMES STREET ANNOUNCED*
JAMES STREET MARKETS OPEN(CENTRO STAGE ONE)
COMPLETION OF EMPORIUM COMMERCIAL TOWERS
CENTRO STAGE2 & 3 COMPLETE
2001
2007 – 2009GLOBAL FINANCIALCRISIS
$298
,230
$362
,350
$229
,830
$418
,920
$254
,350
$237
,650 $3
25,3
70
$314
,210
$342
,650
$271
,630 $3
45,8
90
$494
,740
$360
,980 $4
35,3
40
$338
,230
$589
,940
$562
,100
$504
,180
$411
,000
$527
,310
$562
,190
$580
,630
$478
,600
$540
,210
$484
,080
$473
,150
$578
,460
$621
,900
$544
,060
$100,000$150,000$200,000$250,000$300,000$350,000$400,000$450,000$500,000$550,000$600,000$650,000
2000
-H
ERIT
AG
E O
N T
HE
PARK
2000
-N
EWST
EAD
CO
MM
ERC
IAL
VILL
AG
E
2001
-TIM
E SQ
UA
RE
2001
-EA
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ILLA
GE
2001
-ON
E 20
2001
-A
RBIT
ARE
2002
-EM
PORI
UM
2002
-FV
4006
APA
RTM
ENTS
2002
-VIV
A A
PART
MEN
TS
2002
-U
LTRA
APA
RTM
ENTS
2003
-V
HU
MA
N S
PAC
E
2003
-TH
E D
EGRE
E
2004
-PR
OFI
LE A
PART
MEN
TS
2004
-TH
E ES
TABL
ISH
MEN
T A
PART
MEN
TS
2005
-24
MA
STER
S
2007
-PA
RAG
ON
2007
-XO
LIV
ING
APA
RTM
ENTS
2009
-550
BRU
NSW
ICK
2009
-A
RIS
2010
-M
&A
-C
ON
NO
R ST
REET
2011
-M
OSA
IC R
ESID
ENTI
AL
2011
-BRO
OKL
YN O
N B
ROO
KES
2011
-PRE
CIN
CT
APA
RTM
ENTS
2012
-KU
RV
2012
-ATR
IO
2013
-A
LEX
PERR
Y
2013
-LU
CC
A
2014
-M
OD
ELLO
APA
RTM
ENTS
2014
-CA
SA N
EWST
EAD
AV
ERA
GE
PRIC
E PO
INT
APARTMENT PROJECT
JAMES STREET PRECINCT LOCATION & MARKET OVERVIEW5
JAMES STREET DEMOGRAPHICSAt the time of the 2001 Census the largest demographic in Fortitude Valley was residents aged 20 to 29 years of age equating to approximately 26 per cent of the population. Significantly, the next largest demographics were residents aged 30 to 39 years of age (22.1 per cent). This highlighted a significant younger population present within the suburb, which increased further come the 2006 Census due to the period of Urban Renewal which the James Street Precinct and Fortitude Valley was undertaking. This period saw a number of the older demographic leave the precinct, with the increasingly trendy James Street Precinct registering a heavy increase in the 20 to 34 age group, making up over 43 per cent of the resident population.
The Census data 2011 however indicates that whilst the younger demographics are by the far the highest proportion of the population with 25 to 34 years old making up over 32 per cent of the population – many of the older age brackets are seeing increased growth.
Substantial price growth and rate of new apartment sales have increased since 2011 demonstrating continued demographic shift of high income earning young professionals choosing to reside within walking distance to the James Street Precinct.
Prepared by Urbis; Source: ABS Census 2011
AGE DISTRIBUTIONJAMES STREET PRECINCT
This could be for a number of reasons, however it is essentially based around the tendency for those living in convenient, and high amenity density lifestyles to remain there for longer periods and not necessarily move on to detached dwellings as the traditional dwelling cycle may have once dictated.
The chart below demonstrates the annual household income for the James Street Precinct over a time series of Australian Bureau of Statistics Census periods including 2001, 2006 and 2011.
201120062001
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Age
d 0
-4
Age
d 5
-9
Age
d 10
- 14
Age
d 15
-19
Age
d 20
-24
Age
d 25
-29
Age
d 30
-34
Age
d 35
-39
Age
d 40
-44
Age
d 45
-49
Age
d 50
-55
Age
d 55
-59
Age
d 60
-64
Age
d 65
+
PRO
PORT
ION
OF
POPU
LATI
ON
THE DEMOGRAPHIC MAKEUP OF THE JAMES STREET CATCHMENT HAS
GROWN IN MATURITY SINCE 2001.
AGE BRACKET
6JAMES STREET PRECINCT LOCATION & MARKET OVERVIEW
HOUSEHOLD INCOME GROWTHJAMES STREET PRECINCT
Prepared by Urbis; Source: ABS Census 2011
201120062001
1.2%
58%
28%
12%
1.9%
33% 35%30%
1.2%
26% 26%
47%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
$Neg/Nil $1–$51,999 $52,000–$103,999 $104,000+
PRO
PRTI
ON
OF
POPU
LATI
ON
(%)
HOUSEHOLD INCOME
HIGH INCOME EARNINGS LIVING IN THE JAMES STREET PRECINCT LIKELYREPRESENT MORE THAN
HALF THE RESIDENTS
This dramatic household earning increase over $104,000 per annum has aligned with the maturing demographic indicated in the Age Distribution chart to the far left, and the increased earning capacity these demographics provide. The number of high wealth households are in stark contrast to the demographics that the James Street Precinct once represented which interestingly coincide with the development of the James Street retail precinct suggesting the introduction of larger scale high end retail has worked complimented the increase in higher earning residents.
Prepared by Urbis; Source: ABS Census 2011
AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD INCOMEJAMES STREET PRECINCT
RESIDENCES EARNING OVER
$104,000 P.A
2001 2011RESIDENCES
EARNING OVER $104,000 P.A
12%
47%
Significantly, the highest proportion of income earners in the James Street Precinct, based on 2011 Census data, were residences earning over $104,000 per annum, equating to 47 per cent of the population, up by more than 35 per cent on the proportion of the population that lived in the precinct in 2001.
1 Centro on James Street (Commercial/Retail)
2 Centro on James Street (Retail)
3 Ferrari, Space, Cru Bar, James Street Markets
4 Emporium Masterplan5 Watpac Commercial6 Homemaker City
– Stage17 Homemaker City
– Stage 2
JAMES STREET PRECINCT LOCATION & MARKET OVERVIEW7
JAMES STREET DEVELOPMENT TIMEFRAMES
2001
2007LEGEND
12
11
10
14
12
3
124 5
13
96
7
8
8 Portal Business Community
9 Audi Centre Brisbane10 M&A Retail & Dining11 19-31 James Street12 100 Wickham Street
13 45 Commercial Road14 Green Square15 AECOMM16 HQ17 Optus Tower18 Cardno Tower
19 Maserati Showroom20 Lend Lease HQ
James Street Precinct
8JAMES STREET PRECINCT LOCATION & MARKET OVERVIEW
2011
2015
Prepared by Urbis; Source: XXXXXXX
11
10
14
12
3
124 5
13
96
7
8
17
1816
1519
11
10
14
12
3
124 5
13
96
7
8
17
1816
1519
20
JAMES STREET PRECINCT LOCATION & MARKET OVERVIEW9JAMES STREET MARKET
10JAMES STREET PRECINCT LOCATION & MARKET OVERVIEW
JAMES STREET PRECINCT RESIDENTIAL IMPACT
Key fundamentals are often targeted by smart investors in identifying regions that will be the most desirable to live, work and play – providing security on their investment.
Within walking distance to one of Brisbane leading retail and lifestyle precincts will continue to drive the density residential market and likely drive further apartment price growth moving forward.
Residential development in the James Street Precinct is set to continue moving forward, with more than 1,700 apartment sales recorded over the period since 2001, paired with increases in price point and rate of sales that has been recorded over the last three years, the James Street Precinct is well placed to capitalise on its strong retail and lifestyle offering, paired with its increasing level of high income middle aged adults to occupy future apartment developments.
In addition, and as noted previously within this report, pioneering developments often occur in precincts that are primed for urban renewal/regeneration. For those pioneering developments that fulfil the criteria of master planned developments, they are quite often catalysts for growth within their precinct.
Part of structural uplift is the idea of place making – how well planned and executed Master Planned developments create desirable, lifestyle driven precinct, essentially they are creating a destination. Whatever the mix of employment (commercial), entertainment or retail uses; for residents of the development as well as the surrounding area, these developments are a self-contained destination – it really is the best of both worlds.
Whilst the risks are high for the developers, when developments are planned around precincts such as James Street, the rewards are equally as high, with many of these developments leveraging from the transforming areas of Brisbane, redefining regions, and improving the quality and way in which its residents live their lives.
This publication is prepared on the instruction of 360 Property Group and is not suitable for use other than by the party to whom it is addressed. As the publication involves projections and assumptions it can be affected by a number of unforeseen variables. The forecasts and assumptions are a prediction and whilst Urbis has made every effect to ensure that the forecasts and assumptions are based on reasonable information, they may be affected by assumptions that do not necessarily eventuate or by known, or unknown, risks and uncertainties. It should be noted that past performance is not necessarily a reliable indication of future performance.
The information in the publication does not represent financial advice and should not be regarded as such. It has been prepared without taking into account your financial situation or investment objectives. You should consider the appropriateness of the information in regards to your current financial situation or needs. Urbis accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. The information is subject to change without notice and Urbis is under no obligation to update the information or correct any assumptions which may change over time.
This study has been prepared for the sole use of 360 Property Group and is not to be relied upon by any third party without specific approval from Urbis. This publication is subject to copyright. Except as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part of it may, in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise) be reproduced, stored in a retrievals system or transmitted without prior written permission. Enquiries should be addressed to the publishers. EMR0534.
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