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Transcript of Jamaicas Second National Communication Enabling Activities for the Preparation of Jamaicas Second...
Jamaica’s Second National Communication
Enabling Activities for the Preparation of Jamaica’s Second National Communication to the
UNFCC
Water Resources and Agriculture
Dr. Mark Futter
Initial V&A Workshop
5th November 2007
Outline
1. A short history lesson….
2. What do we want to achieve with the SNC ….?
3. How are we going to get there….?
4. How vulnerable are we now….?
5. How will we assess vulnerabilities and develop adaptation strategies under future climate…?
6. Concluding comments
A short history lesson….the INC…..
It will be a widely read document that is easily accessible to allIt will have “ownership” by a wide range of stakeholders (public, private & voluntary sectors)It will lead to positive policy changes and programmes to reduce vulnerability for all JamaicansIt will be a document that informs Jamaica’s sustainable development
What do we want to achieve with the SNC…?
“The consultant will be required to conduct integrated assessments of biophysical effects and the potential socio-economic impacts on the agricultural and water resources sectors of Jamaica. The assessments must determine the vulnerability to the impacts of climate change and the adaptation measures that will be required to mitigate these effects”
Exposure
Adaptive
Capacity
Sensitivit
y
What do we want to achieve with the SNC…?
Questions Agricultural Sector Water Resources Sector
What is of concern? Food production & food security, incomes and export earnings
Protection of the aquatic environment and water supply to all sectors of society,
Who may be affected? Ag. Workers & rural communities, agro-business and food processing industries
Customers of NWC / NIC / private supplies, those dependent on healthy aquatic environment
How far into the future is of concern?
To 2050
What is the purpose of the assessment?
To recommend adaptation strategies at a range of scales / across sectors
What do we want to achieve with the SNC…?
Questions Agricultural Sector Water Resources Sector
What kind of output is needed?
One that raises awareness with stakeholders and leads to changes in policy and practice
What resources are available?
One person formally (+ stakeholder support)
How much time is available?
Until end of February 2008
What level of stakeholder support is sought?
Whatever is offered – but expect this to vary depending upon resources available
How are we going to get there…..?
World Development
Global GHG
Global climate models
Impacts
Vulnerability(physical)Vulnerability
(social)
Adaptive Capacity
Indicators based on: Economic resources;
technology; Information & skills, institutions, Equity
Past Present Future
Global
Local
Climate Adaptation
Policy
UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework
NAPA Guidance UKCIP
IPCC Seven Steps U.S. Country Studies
Program UNEP Handbook
How are we going to get there…..?
En
gag
e st
akeh
old
ers
Increase ad
aptive cap
acity
1. Scope project
2. Assess current
vulnerability3. Characterize
futureclimate-related
risks
4. Develop adaptation
strategy
5. Continue
adaptation process
UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework
How vulnerable are we now …?
PIOJ Agriculture Production Index 1986-2006
1986=100
How vulnerable are we now …?Banana Crop: Hurricane Ivan destroyed the entire crop, for export and domesticconsumption. 8,000 people out of work for 6-9 months until crop production resumes
Coffee Crop: Ivan led to loss of berries in 45% of coffee producing areas and destruction of 5% of coffee trees.Withdrawal of some farmers from production due to expense of insurance coupled with low world prices
How vulnerable are we now …?Sugar Cane Crop: Hurricane Ivan led to broken and uprooted canes as well as flooding in large areasImpact is to reduce sugar content , decrease sugar yield and increase processing costs
Livestock production: poultry, goats and pigs were most affected by Ivan and milk production decreased due to the death of dairy cattle
How vulnerable are we now …?
Water Management Unit
Resources Demands 2005
Surplus/ Deficit
Demand/Resources %
18-Hope River 74.5 87.6 -13.1 117.5
19-Rio Cobre 483.7 305.2 178.5 63.1
20 – Rio Minho
266.1 175.8 90.3 66.1
Annual Water Resources Balance for 2005(units 106m3/yr)
How vulnerable are we now …?
Lack of surface
reservoirstorage
Saline intrusion
into coastal aquifers
Significant losses in water
distribution systems Investmentin improved water
resources management
How will we assess adaption measures for future climate …?
Climate Scenarios
Socio-Economic (Baseline) Scenario(s)
Water Resources Development
Plan Water Balance Model
Water Balance Model WMU
Results
Sectoral Adaptation Measures
VulnerabilityReduced ?
NOYESREVIEW PROGRESS
How will we assess adaption measures for future climate …?
Type of Model Key Characteristics
Agro-climatic models and GIS
Based on simple calculations and effective for comparing across regions & crops, but only consider climate
Statistical models and yield functions
Based on empirical relationships between crop responses and climate, but do not explain causal mechanisms, nor future climate-crop relationships
Process-based models Include climate, soils and management, widely used and calibrated and can be used for adaption assessments. Require significant data input for best results
Economic models Incorporate land values, commodity prices and economic outcomes, and therefore useful to assess market based and financial adaptation measures – but are complex and require significant data input
Household and village models
Look at current coping strategies under existing conditions , but do not capture future stresses if different from current
Challenges…..
Scale and complexity of problem (dependencies)
Project resources
Project timetable
Availability of tools