Unfcc iwmi cc_2012

Water for a food-secure world

Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources, Ecosystems and Livelihoods in Various Global

River Basins

Fred Kizito and Vladimir Smakhtin

1

International Water Management Institute (IWMI)

UNFCC Technical Workshop on Water18-20 July

Water for a food-secure worldWater for a food-secure world

Background

Navrongo, Northern Ghana


IWMI’s Research and Climate Change

Numerous other on-going projects in both Africa and SE Asia


Climate Change Impact on Agro-ecosystems

1. Rainfall trends and patterns impact:

a) Stream flow

b) Seasonal soil moisture

c) Agricultural productivity

2. Extreme events

a) Droughts (related to rainfall)

b) Flooding (has +ves and -ves)

3. Temperature rises (associated with CC)

4


Tools and Methods on climate change related research

IWRM: Integrated Water Resources Management

InVEST: Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs

ComMod: Companion Modelling (Social simulation Platform)

Wat-a-GAME: Water Game (Social simulation Platform)

WEAP: Water Evaluation and Planning

SWAT: Soil Water Assessment Tool

- Drought: Impacts agriculture- Upstream-Downstream conflicts- Community flooding- Reduced domestic water supply

Broad IWRM Challenges

Tools and Methods

Climate change relatedimpacts on

communities

RecommendResearch and

action-oriented interventions

Resilient, Adaptive Comm

unities

Stakeholder Engagement

Sedimentation/Siltation/Erosion

Water Yields Constraints

- Siltation of reservoirs- Reduced storage volume - Soil erosion: Shallow soils- Disrupts aquatic life- Impact on water quality

Stakeholder feedback on challenges

Outputs

Water allocation,Water balance,

Sedimentation estimates , flood vulnerability, Ecosystem Services

modeling and valuation, land use planning

Community involvement and

feedback for erosion control, gender tools

for empowering communities

Modeling and Scenarios analysis

Linkage Interface


Water Scarcity and Climate Change

1/3 of the world’s population live in basins that have to deal with water scarcity


Mapping Vulnerability to Climate Change

Socio-economic Vulnerability – in terms of diversity of employment, income and crops

Ratio of total Storage to Mean Annual Drought Deficit

Basins

Countries

Globally

Composite Vulnerability – in terms of exposure to CC, sensitivity and adaptive capacity


Quantifying Impacts of CC and Development on Water Resources: Mekong

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

5007009001,1001,3001,5001,7001,9002,1002,3002,500

Distance from river mouth (km)

Dry

sea

son

flo

w c

han

ge

(%)

Climate change Development Climate change+Development

Chiang Saen

Luang Prabang

Chiang Khan Nong Khai

MukdahanPakse

Stung Treng

Kratie

Vientiane

Nakhon PhanomKhong Chiam

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

5007009001,1001,3001,5001,7001,9002,1002,3002,500

Distance from river mouth (km)

Wet

sea

son

flo

w c

han

ge

(%)

Climate change Development Climate change+Development

Chiang Saen Luang PrabangChiang Khan

Vientiane

Nong Khai

Nakhon Phanom

Mukdahan

Khong Chiam

Pakse

Stung Treng

Kratie

DR

Y S

EA

SO

N (A

2)W

ET

SE

AS

ON

(A2)

B2

Relative flow changes along Mekong mainstream:

UPSTREAM DOWNSTREAM

+

_

+

Dams onlyCC only (A2

Combined impacts

Impacts: Tens of dams planned

-7+20% rain increase by 2050


Re-thinking CC Policy

Kizito et al., 2012

Address the Energy Water Food Nexus

(a) (b)FDI:Jatropha

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

All Years

-120

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

An

nu

al M

ois

ture

Flu

xes

(M

illi

on

m3

)

Precip ita tion

N et change in so il m oisture

Evapotranspira tion

G roundw ater recharge

Surface R unoff

Pre-FDI: Fallow

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

All Years

-240

-200

-160

-120

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

An

nu

al

Mo

istu

re F

lux

es

(M

illio

n m

3)

FDI:Jatropha, Maize, Soybean and Yam

Pre-FDI: Maize, Soybean and Yam


Re-thinking Water Storage:

physical storage continuum


Water Storage for CC Adaptation

Water storage is widely advocated as a key mechanism for CC adaptation

In many countries, climate variability is high and increasing, but water storage is low

Inability to regulate runoff by storage is a key contributor to high levels of food insecurity and poverty

Storage systems need to be able to function across a range of CC scenarios – due to the associated uncertainty


CLIMATE CHANGE AND FLOODING: South Asia

Continuous monitoring of spatial extent of flooding using public satellite data

Estimating frequency and risk of flooding with initially 250 m resolution

Estimation of GHGs emissions from flooded areas

South Asia- first; globally – next

On-going efforts within IWMI on flood forecasting in other regions

2010, August, 250 m resolution

2010, August, Pakistan, 20m resolution


Glaciers, CC and Impacts on Water Availability:6 Major Asian Basins

Compiling basin-wide data on glaciers Glaciers distribution by size = sensitivity to CC

The role of seasonal snow vs role of glaciers Evaluating critical temperatures

Water for a food-secure worldWater for a food-secure world 14

Ecosystem Services and the Landscape Approach

Flooding

Rainfall/Dam Releases

Siltation/Erosion

Land use Soil

State

Transition

Result

Regulating

Provisioning

Cultural

Supporting

Modified after Eco-Agriculture Partners on behalf of the Landscapes for People, Food and Nature Initiative, 2012


Vulnerable areas: Viable interventions


IWMI and Collaborating Partners: Together we can see the Horizon

IWMI and Collaborating Partners: Together we can see the Horizon

Research Collaborations: The challenges and opportunities raised by the nexus of water resources and climate change require development of new collaborations and strengthening existent partnerships


Adding water management to adaptation and mitigation solutions for climate change

Our Planet Earth

Improved livelihoods

Vibrant and

sustainable

ecosystems

Adaptation

Mitigation

Transform water

governanceRevisit water

storageManage water

demandsIncrease

water productivity

Produce more food per unit of

water

Manage water for

afforestation and

reforestation

Manage dams for

multi-purpose use

Measure water

footprint

Address the Energy-

Water-Food Nexus

Reduce food waste

Monitor water and provide

feedbackDual-approach: A combination of adaptation and mitigation options


Thank you

• Vladimir Smakhtin (IWMI, Colombo)• Prathapar Sanmugam (IWMI, India)• Paul Pavelic (IWMI, India)• Luna Bharati (IWMI, Nepal)• Giriraj Amarnath (IWMI, Colombo)• Guillame Lacombe (IWMI, Laos)• C.T. Hoanh (IWMI, Laos)• K.P. Palanisami (IWMI, India)• Matthew McCartney (IWMI-Ethiopia)• Nishadi Eriyagama (IWMI, Colombo)• Pay Drechsel (IWMI, Colombo)• Liqa Rashid (IWMI, Ghana) • Oxana Savoskul (IWMI, Colombo)• Tushaar Shah (IWMI, India)

• IWMI CLIMATE CHANGE WEB SITE : www.iwmi.cgiar.org/Topics/Climate_Change/default.aspx

Unfcc iwmi cc_2012

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