Jacksonville 2015
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Transcript of Jacksonville 2015
Emerging Market Strategies
Game Theory
• Relation Based System• Rule Based System
Medici Jewish Diamond Merchants of New York
South East Asia Overseas Chinese
Game Theory Models
• Each System is mix of relation based and rule based system
• US one end of spectrum• Most Emerging Markets at other End• Direct correlation between level of legal risk
and level of relationship based system
Hallmarks Relationship System
• Family Businesses
Hallmarks Relationship System
• State Owned Companies
Market Concentration State & Family Owned Businesses
Hallmarks Relationship System
• Crony Capitalism and Corruption
Hallmarks Relationship System
•Underground Economies
Information
• Family Owned Corporations• State Owned Corporations• Connections• Underground Economies
China
• Misallocation of Capital• Debt• Booms
Followed by Long Busts
Local Government Debt
Roads to Nowhere and Empty Cities
Jiaozhou Bay Bridge
Ordos, Inner Mongolia
Chinese Real Estate
Bubble with Chinese Characteristics?
Downside
Decline has metastasize
Slowdown in Construction
Growth of Shadow Banking
Shadow Banking Growth
Limiting Shadow Banking Size
Extend and Pretend
Shadow Banking Money Substitute
Li Keqiang Index
This Morning’s Indicators
China Growth
China Taps International Markets
China Wins the Debt Race
Margin Debt
BRIC Dollar Debt
EM Dollar Debt
Hard Currency EM Corporate Debt
EM Maturities
EM Currency Decline
Emerging Market Slowdown
Theory and Practice
• Direct Investors– Market and Product define the strategy
• Indirect Investors– Booms and Busts – Momentum and foreign
investors• Analysis– Asymmetries of information
Japan Slows
Germany Slows
US Debt Market
US Debt Market
US Debt Market
US Debt
Growth through Stimulus?
• Tharman Shanmugaratnam, chairman of the IMF’s International Monetary and Financial Committee, said: “We’re clearly in recovery, globally as well as in most parts of the world.”