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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

Y/E March (Rs cr) 1QFY11 1QFY10 % chg (yoy) 4QFY10 % chg (qoq)

Net sales 1,106 1,110 0.3 1,890 (41.5)Operating profit 100.8 99.6 1.2 198.4 (49.2)Net profit 28.1 35.3 (20.4) 85.3 (67.0)

Source: Company, Angel Research

IVRCL Infrastructure (IVRCL) reported flat yoy top-line performance for1QFY2011, which was below our and street estimates. The company lost aroundRs250cr in revenue for the quarter on account of three projects. Management hasmaintained its guidance of Rs6,700crRs7,100cr, which implies growth run rate

for the next three quarters at ~30%, even at the lower end of the guidance, whichwe believe is an uphill task. Therefore, we prune our estimates. However, giventhe companys past excellent track record and robust order book renderingrevenue visibility, we maintain our Buy rating on the stock.

Top line below estimates, OPM in line with expectations: IVRCL reported a flattop-line performance at Rs1,106cr. On the operating front, the company postedmargin of 9.1%, a tad above our estimates of 8.6%. Below-estimate top-lineperformance, cascaded at the bottom-line level, which came in at mere Rs28.1cr.

Outlook and valuation: IVRCL has a robust order book of Rs23,275cr (4.3xFY2010 revenue), which lends revenue visibility. Robust order booking over the

last few quarters ensures IVRCLs dependence on AP orders has come downsignificantly (from 28% to current 17%). IVRCLs performance is disappointing onthe execution front, but we expect execution to pick up as the issues are temporary in nature. We have valued IVRCL on an SOTP basis. The companys coreconstruction business is valued at a P/E of 14x FY2012E EPS of Rs11.6(Rs162/share), while its stake in subsidiaries IVR Prime (Rs37/share) andHindustan Dorr-Oliver (Rs17/share) has been valued on an Mcap basis, postassigning 20% holding company discount. Therefore, on the back of IVRCLsexcellent execution track record, robust order book to sales ratio and comfortablevaluations, we maintain Buy on the stock with a Target Price of Rs216.

Key financials (Standalone)Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E

Net sales 4,882 5,492 6,493 8,071

% chg 33.4 12.5 18.2 24.3

Adj. net profit 225.6 211.8 249.7 313.0

% chg 7.1 (6.1) 17.9 25.4

EBITDA (%) 8.6 9.7 9.3 9.4

FDEPS (Rs) 8.4 7.8 9.2 11.6

P/E (x) 20.4 21.7 18.4 14.7

P/BV (x) 2.5 2.4 2.2 1.9

RoE (%) 13.2 11.4 12.4 13.8

RoCE (%) 12.7 13.6 13.0 13.9

EV/Sales (x) 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9EV/EBITDA (x) 14.0 11.9 11.3 9.6


BUYCMP Rs170Target Price Rs216Investment Period 12 Months

Stock Info

Sector Infrastructure

Market Cap (Rs cr) 4,551

Beta 1.4

52 Week High / Low 212/144.1

Avg. Daily Volume 341,421

Face Value (Rs) 2BSE Sensex 18,220

Nifty 5,461

Reuters Code IVRC.BO

Bloomberg Code IVRC@IN

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters 9.6

MF / Banks / Indian Fls 33.4

FII / NRIs / OCBs 55.8Indian Public / Others 10.8

Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

Sensex 5.1 21.4 22.5

IVRCL (1.2) 11.1 (10.5)

Shailesh Kanani022-40403800 Ext:[email protected]

Aniruddha Mate022-40403800 Ext:[email protected]

IVRCL Infrastructure

Performance Highlights

1QFY2011 Result Update | Infrastructure August 10, 2010

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IVRCL Infrastructure | 1QFY2011 Result Update

August 10, 2010 2

Exhibit 1: 1QFY2011 performance (Standalone)Y/E March (Rs cr) 1QFY11 1QFY10 % chg(yoy) 4QFY10 % chg(qoq) FY2010 FY2009 % chg

Net Sales 1,106.4 1,109.6 (0.3) 1,890.4 (41.5) 5,492 4,882 12.5Total Expenditure 1,005.7 1,010.0 (0.4) 1,692.0 (40.6) 4,961 4,460 11.2Operating Profit 100.8 99.6 1.2 198.4 (99.4) 531 422 26.0

OPM (%) 9.1 9.0 - 10.5 - 9.7 8.6 -Interest 45.3 38.5 17.5 52.5 (13.8) 163.9 130.6 25.5Depreciation 15.7 13.0 20.6 14.0 12.1 54.3 47.3 14.8Non Operating Income 0.9 3.9 (77.6) 2.0 (55.9) 15.5 29.9 (48.2)Non recurring items - - 0.0 - 0.0 (140.9) - 0.0Profit Before Tax 40.6 51.9 (21.7) 133.8 (69.6) 187.7 273.8 (31.4)Tax 12.5 16.6 (24.5) 48.6 (74.2) 117.7 47.8 146.2Reported PAT 28.1 35.3 (20.4) 85.3 (67.0) 70.0 226.0 (69.0)

PAT (%) 2.5 3.2 - 4.5 - 1.3 4.6 - Adjusted PAT 28.1 35.3(20.4) 85.3 (67.0) 210.9 226.0 (6.7) Adj. PAT (%) 2.5 3.2 - 4.5 - 3.8 4.6 -Adj. FDEPS 1.0 1.3 (20.4) 3.2 (67.0) 7.8 8.4 (6.7)


Exhibit 2: 1QFY2011 actual vs. Angel estimates(Rs cr) Actual Estimates Variation (%)

Revenue 1,106.4 1,368.0 (19.1)EBITDA margin (%) 9.1 8.6 50.7bp

PAT 28.1 35.6 (21.1) Source: Company, Angel Research

Top line below estimates

IVRCL posted a flat top-line performance at Rs1,106cr for 1QFY2011, which was19.1% below our expectations and 21% below the streets expectations. The company lost around Rs250cr in revenue for the quarter on account of execution-related issues inthe MP and AP projects and the IOC tankage project.

Exhibit 3: Quarterly revenue trend


Exhibit 4: Quarterly EBITDA trend


(5.0)5.015.025.035.045.055.065.075.0

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000

2 Q F Y 0 9

3 Q F Y 0 9

4 Q F Y 0 9

1 Q F Y 1 0

2 Q F Y 1 0

3 Q F Y 1 0

4 Q F Y 1 0

1 Q F Y 1 1

Sales (Rs cr , LHS) Gr owth (yoy %, RHS)

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.012.0

-

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

2 Q F Y 0 9

3 Q F Y 0 9

4 Q F Y 0 9

1 Q F Y 1 0

2 Q F Y 1 0

3 Q F Y 1 0

4 Q F Y 1 0

1 Q F Y 1 1

EBITDA (Rs c r, L HS) EB ITDAM (%, RHS)

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August 10, 2010 3

but margins broadly in line with expectations

IVRCL reported EBITDA margin of 9.1% for 1QFY2011. However, due todisappointing top-line performance and increased debt levels, the bottom linereported a 20.4% decline to Rs28.1cr. We believe there would be a revival inbottom-line growth once execution picks up. This is the consecutive fourth quarterof a declined performance by the company. Management has guided abottom line of ~Rs260cr for FY2011, which would require catching up as only Rs28.1cr of profit has been made until 1QFY2011.

Exhibit 5: Quarterly bottom-line trend


-

1.0

2.03.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.0

2 Q F Y 0 9

3 Q F Y 0 9

4 Q F Y 0 9

1 Q F Y 1 0

2 Q F Y 1 0

3 Q F Y 1 0

4 Q F Y 1 0

1 Q F Y 1 1

PAT (Rs cr, LHS) PATM (%, RHS)

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August 10, 2010 4

Outlook and valuation

IVRCLs flat performance on the top-line front in 1QFY2011 was on account ofthree projects and related client-side issues, barring which the company would

have booked additional revenue of Rs250cr. While IVRCLs past execution trackrecord stands testimony to its execution capabilities, its robust order book rendersrevenue visibility. Hence, we expect the company to revert on its growth trajectory and do not see any concerns on the execution front. Management has maintainedits guidance of Rs6700crRs7100cr on a standalone basis for FY2011, whichimplies growth run rate for the next three quarters at ~30%, even at the lower endof the guidance, which we believe is an uphill task. Hence, we prune our estimatesmarginally.

Exhibit 6: Change in estimatesFY2011E FY2012E

(Rs cr) Earlier estimates Revised estimates Variation (%) Earlier estimates Revised estimates Variation (%)Revenue 6,663.0 6,493.2 (2.5) 8,293.7 8,071.3 (2.7)EBITDA margin 9.3 9.3 0.0 9.4 9.4 0.0PAT 259.7 249.7 (3.8) 325.2 313.0 (3.8)


We have valued IVRCL on an SOTP basis. The companys core constructionbusiness is valued at a P/E of 14x FY2012E EPS of Rs11.6 (Rs162/share), while itsstake in subsidiaries IVR Prime (Rs37/share) and Hindustan Dorr-Oliver(Rs17/share) has been valued on an Mcap basis, post assigning 20% holding

company discount. At the CMP of Rs170, the stock is trading at 14.7x FY2012EEPS and 1.9x FY2012E P/BV on a standalone basis, adjusting for its subsidiaries at10.1x FY2012E EPS and 1.3x FY2012E P/BV. Hence, on the back of thecompanys excellent execution track record, robust order book to sales ratio andcomfortable valuations, we maintain Buy on IVRCL with a Target Price of Rs216.

Exhibit 7: SOTP valuation summary Business segment Methodology Remarks Rs cr Rs/share

Construction P/E 14x FY2012E earnings 4,382 162IVRAH Mcap 20% holding company discount 988 37Hindustan-Dorr Mcap 20% holding company discount 466 17

Total - - 5,836 216


Exhibit 8: Key assumptions (Rs cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E

Order inflow 4,674 8,403 8,625 12,312 13,184 15,009Revenue 2,346 3,661 4,882 5,492 6,493 8,071Order backlog (Y/E) 8,100 12,800 16,600 23,440 30,131 37,069Order book to sales ratio (x) 3.5 3.5 3.4 4.3 4.6 4.6


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Exhibit 9: Angel EPS forecast v/s consensusAngel forecast Bloomberg consensus Variation

FY2011E 9.2 10.9 18.0

FY2012E 11.6 13.4 15.6 Source: Company, Angel Research

Investment arguments

Robust order book renders strong revenue visibility: IVRCL has a robust order bookof Rs23,275cr (4.3x FY2010 revenue), which lends revenue visibility. In-houseprojects form around Rs5,500cr of the companys overall order book. Robust orderbooking over the last few quarters ensures that the companys dependence on APorders has come down significantly (from 28% to current 17%). IVRCL had issueson the execution front due to its high AP exposure, but given the fact that the issues

are resolving, we expect the company to be back on its growth trajectory.

Exhibit 10: Robust order book (%)


Value unlocking at IVRAH, the next trigger: IVRCL Assets Holding (IVRAH) startedtolling Jalandhar-Amritsar road in May 2010. The Chennai water project alsostarted in August 2010. In FY2011, all of the companys old BOT projects wouldstart generating revenue to fund its future investments. Management has givenguidance of increased revenue of Rs1.4cr/day from these BOT projects once they

are fully operational. IVRAH would be requiring equity infusion ofRs1,300cr1,400cr over the next three years and is planning to raise money. Webelieve value unlocking at the subsidiary level will act as a near-term catalyst forIVRCLs growth.

51 .5

1. 7

6. 7

36 .5

3. 6

Irrigation Buildings Power Transportation Oil & Gas

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August 10, 2010 6

Exhibit 11: Recommendation summary Company CMP TP Rating Top line EPS Adj. P/E OB/

(Rs) (Rs) FY10 FY11E FY12E CAGR (%) FY10 FY11E FY12E CAGR (%) FY10 FY11E FY12E Sale

CCCL 90 - Neutral 1,976 2,461 2,891 21.0 5.0 5.9 7.5 22.5 16.9 14.4 11.3 2.3

Gammon 211 - Neutral 4,489 5,575 6,607 21.3 8.4 10.0 12.1 20.0 12.9 10.9 9.0

HCC 71 - Neutral 3,629 4,146 4,900 16.2 2.7 3.2 3.7 17.4 24.8 21.1 18.0 4.7

IRB Infra 292 - Neutral 1,705 2,778 3,580 44.9 11.6 12.3 14.5 11.8 24.6 23.2 19.7 -

IVRCL 170 216 Buy 5,492 6,493 8,071 21.2 7.8 9.2 11.6 21.6 14.9 12.6 10.1 4.3

JP Assoc. 122 174 Buy 10,316 13,281 17,843 31.5 4.7 5.2 7.7 28.5 25.4 22.6 15.4 -

Punj 119 156 Buy 10,448 9,756 12,402 9.0 (11.1) 5.6 11.2 - - 21.6 10.8 2.8

NCC 161 201 Buy 4,778 5,913 6,758 18.9 7.8 8.9 10.1 13.7 14.7 12.9 11.4 3.6

Sadbhav 1,450 1,313 Reduce 1,257 1,621 1,986 25.7 43.0 77.4 89.8 44.4 21.3 11.8 10.2 5.4

SI. 480 570 Buy 4,555 5,535 6,428 18.8 25.7 31.9 40.7 25.9 18.9 15.2 11.9 2.5

PEL 416 563 Buy 3,081 3,685 4,297 18.1 23.4 31.2 32.9 18.6 (2.6) (1.9) (1.8) 3.5MPL 164 174 Buy 1,308 1,701 2,120 27.3 5.8 7.7 9.8 29.8 13.7 10.4 8.1 3.1

L&T 1,827 - Neutral 37,035 44,047 55,519 22.4 47.5 55.1 68.9 20.4 29.7 25.6 20.5 2.7


Exhibit 12: Recommendation summary - SOTP break-upCompany Core const. Real estate Road BOT Invst. in subsidiaries Others Total

Rs % to TP Rs % to TP Rs % to TP Rs % to TP Rs % to TP Rs

CCCL 89 100 - - - - - - - - 89

Gammon India 121 54 - - - - - - 104 46 225HCC 51 41 59 46 16 13 - - - - 126

IRB Infra 113 41 3 1 154 56 5 2 - - 275

IVRCL 162 75 - - - - 54 25 - - 216

JP Assoc. 65 38 41 23 - - - - 68 39 174

Punj Lloyd 156 100 - - - - - - - - 156

NCC 141 70 19 9 19 10 - - 21 11 201

Sadbhav 862 66 - - 451 34 - - - - 1,313

Simplex In. 570 100 - - - - - - - - 570

Patel Engg. 457 81 60 11 16 3 - - 32 5 565


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August 10, 2010 7

Profit & Loss Statement (Standalone)Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E

Net Sales 2,346 3,661 4,882 5,492 6,493 8,071Other operating income 32.6 - - - - -Total operating income 2,379 3,661 4,882 5,492 6,493 8,071% chg 54.2 53.9 33.4 12.5 18.2 24.3Total Expenditure 2,116 3,299 4,460 4,961 5,887 7,313Net Raw Materials 877 1,247 1,658 2,021 2,130 2,623Other Mfg costs 1,164 1,899 2,587 2,737 3,442 4,278Personnel 75 153 215 203 315 412Other - - - - - -EBITDA 262.8 361.7 421.4 531.3 606.5 758.5% chg 75.0 37.6 16.5 26.1 14.2 25.1

(% of Net Sales) 11.0 9.9 8.6 9.7 9.3 9.4Depreciation&

Amortisation 21.6 32.8 47.3 54.3 64.9 72.7

EBIT 241.2 328.9 374.1 477.0 541.6 685.8% chg 72.2 36.4 13.8 27.5 13.5 26.6

(% of Net Sales) 10.1 9.0 7.7 8.7 8.3 8.5Interest & otherCharges 56.1 47.8 130.6 163.0 187.3 233.6

Other Income - 4.5 29.9 15.6 18.4 22.0(% of PBT) - 1.6 10.9 4.7 4.9 4.6Share in profit of

Associates - - - - - -

Recurring PBT 185.1 285.6 273.4 329.6 372.7 474.2% chg 78.4 54.3 (4.3) 20.5 13.1 27.3Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) - - - - - -

PBT (reported) 185.1 285.6 273.4 329.6 372.7 474.2Tax 43.6 74.9 47.8 258.6 123.0 161.2(% of PBT) 23.6 26.2 17.5 78.5 33.0 34.0PAT (reported) 141.5 210.7 225.6 70.9 249.7 313.0

Add: Share of earningsof associate - - - - - -

Less: Minority interest(MI) - - - - - -

Prior period items - - - - - -PAT after MI (reported) 141.5 210.7 225.6 70.9 249.7 313.0ADJ. PAT 141.5 210.7 225.6 211.8 249.7 313.0% chg 52.2 49.0 7.1 (6.1) 17.9 25.4(% of Net Sales) 6.0 5.8 4.6 3.9 3.8 3.9Basic EPS (Rs) 10.9 15.8 16.9 7.8 9.2 11.6

Fully Diluted EPS (Rs) 5.2 7.8 8.4 7.8 9.2 11.6% chg 49.0 7.1 (6.1) 17.9 25.4

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August 10, 2010 9

Cash Flow Statement(Standalone)Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E

Profit Before Tax 185 286 273 330 373 474Depreciation 22 33 47 54 65 73Change in WorkingCapital 628 663 398 409 682 657

Less: Other income - 5 30 16 18 22Direct taxes paid 44 75 48 259 123 161Cash Flow fromOperations (464) (424) (155) (299) (386) (294)

(Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (125) (162) (210) (168) (108) (167)

(Inc.)/ Dec. inInvestments (6) (58) (48) - - -

(Inc.)/ Dec. in loans andadvances - - - - - -

Other income - 5 30 16 18 22Cash Flow fromInvesting (132) (215) (228) (153) (89) (145)

Issue of Equity 719 100 35 - -Inc./(Dec.) in loans (123) 512 330 488 539 480Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (15) (22) (19) (22) (22) (22)Others (5) 3 (4) - - -Cash Flow fromFinancing 575 593 307 500 517 458

Inc./(Dec.) in Cash (21) (47) (76) 48 42 20Opening Cash balances 244 224 177 101 149 191

Closing Cash balances 224 177 101 149 191 211

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Key RatiosY/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E

Valuation Ratio (x)P/E (on FDEPS) 32.5 21.8 20.4 21.7 18.4 14.7P/CEPS 28.2 18.9 16.9 17.3 14.6 11.9P/BV 3.5 2.9 2.5 2.4 2.2 1.9Dividend yield (%) 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0EV/Sales 2.1 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9EV/EBITDA 18.8 15.2 14.0 11.9 11.3 9.6EV / Total Assets 2.6 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4Per Share Data (Rs)EPS (Basic) 5.2 7.8 8.4 7.8 9.2 11.6EPS (fully diluted) 5.2 7.8 8.4 7.8 9.2 11.6

Cash EPS 6.0 9.0 10.1 9.9 11.7 14.3DPS 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7Book Value 48.8 59.5 67.1 70.2 78.6 89.4DuPont AnalysisEBIT margin 10.1 9.0 7.7 8.7 8.3 8.5Tax retention ratio 76.4 73.8 82.5 21.5 67.0 66.0

Asset turnover (x) 1.3 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.7ROIC (Post-tax) 9.8 11.7 11.0 3.0 9.1 9.5Cost of Debt (PostTax) 7.7 4.3 8.7 2.1 5.8 5.8

Leverage (x) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1

Operating ROE 10.3 14.6 12.4 3.8 12.2 13.6Returns (%)ROACE (Pre-tax) 12.8 14.4 12.7 13.6 13.0 13.9

Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 12.8 15.8 13.3 14.1 13.5 14.5ROE 10.7 14.4 13.2 11.4 12.4 13.8Turnover ratios (x)

Asset Turnover(Gross Block) 9.2 10.8 9.0 7.9 8.3 8.9

Inventory / Sales(days) 13 14 15 20 25 30

Receivables (days) 97 64 67 84 87 87

Payables (days) 130 99 96 118 113 113 Working capitalcycle (ex-cash) (days) 173 146 149 159 165 163

Solvency ratios (x)Net debt to equity 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.1Net debt to EBITDA 1.3 2.5 3.1 3.3 3.7 3.6Interest Coverage(EBIT / Interest) 4.3 6.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9

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Disclosure of Interest Statement IVRCL Infra1 . Analyst ownership of the stock No2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No4. Broking relationship with company covered No

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.

Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)

Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angeltrade.com

DISCLAIMER

This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investmentdecision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should makesuch investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companiesreferred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits andrisks of such an investment.

Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, makeinvestment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in thisdocument are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.

Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions andtrading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company'sfundamentals.

The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliablesources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as thisdocument is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report .

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Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory,compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced,redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly.

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