IRELAND: MIGRATION AND EU ENLARGEMENT Kevin Quinn Manager, International Employment Services FAS...

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  • IRELAND: MIGRATION AND EU ENLARGEMENT Kevin QuinnManager, International Employment Services FAS Ireland

    Keflavic 30th May 2008

  • Irish Employment 1988-2007

  • Irish Economic Facts

    GDP (2007)185bnGDP Growth (2007)5.3%GDP per Capita (2007)42,581 ($64k)Irish GDP per Capita as % of EU 142%Inflation (2007)4.9%Current Account Deficit (2007)5.9% of GDPPopulation (2007) 4.3 million Average Full Time Wage (2007) 764National Minimum Wage (July 2007) 8.65 per hourWeekly Unemployment All.(Jan 2008) 197.80Adult Dependent (Jan 2008) 131.30

  • Implications for Eures Ireland,implications for Eures, EuropeStill a shortage of key workers

  • Change in Socio-Economic Indicators 1995-2006

  • Employment Growth 1998-2007

  • Chart2

    126.47.8

    96.95.7

    74.54.3

    65.13.6

    774.2

    82.14.4

    84.24.4

    85.64.2

    91.44.3

    98.84.5

    000s

    %

    000s

    %

    Unemployment Trends 1998-2007

    Sheet1

    Sheet1

    3.2

    2.7

    4.8

    3.9

    9.8

    8.3

    9.1

    9.4

    3.3

    4

    4.1

    8.7

    8.8

    6.8

    4.2

    -2.2

    -3.9

    000s

    Quarter-on-Quarter Construction Employment Growth 2002-2007

    Sheet2

    126.47.8

    96.95.7

    74.54.3

    65.13.6

    774.2

    82.14.4

    84.24.4

    85.64.2

    91.44.3

    98.84.5

    000s

    %

    000s

    %

    Unemployment Trends 1998-2007

    Sheet3

  • Labour Force Growth Decomposed

  • To Twenty-five.and then?How far east?

  • To Twenty-five.and then?How far east?

  • Post-enlargement migration trend

    Peak

  • Minimum Monthly Salary in the EU

  • Sectoral Employment Growth by Nationality Since Enlargement

  • Unemployment Rising Rapidly

  • Chart2

    8.43.7

    8.43.8

    8.44

    8.54

    8.74.4

    8.84.3

    8.94.3

    8.94.6

    8.94.7

    94.5

    94.8

    94.5

    9.14.5

    9.14.5

    94.4

    8.94.4

    8.84.3

    8.94.3

    8.74.3

    8.54.5

    8.24.4

    7.94.4

    7.74.5

    7.44.2

    7.14.4

    6.84.6

    EU27

    Ireland

    %

    Figure 1.6: Unemployment Trends 2001-2007

    Sheet1

    Figure 1.1

    Employment 1998-20042year

    GrowthGNP growthGDP Growthemp%growthempgnpGDPemp

    199646.84%1328.5

    199751.47.80%8.20%4%4%1379.9

    1998114.110.10%11.50%8%6%9%10%1494

    199995.17.70%8.50%6%7%9%10%1589.1

    200082.38.50%10.70%5%6%8%10%1671.4

    200150.59.50%9.20%3%4%9%10%1721.9

    2002423.90%6.20%2%3%7%8%1763.9

    200329.52.70%6.10%2%2%3%6%1793.4

    200442.85.10%4.40%2%2%4%5%1836.2

    2005933.90%4.30%5%4%5%4%1929.2

    200687.85.40%5.50%5%5%5%5%2017

    200778.46.50%5.70%4%4%6%6%2095.4

    20084.40%4.70%5%5%

    20092.90%2.70%

    Figure 1.2

    19992000200120022003200420052006

    Total95.182.350.443.229.4439387.8

    Employment growth lagged six months

    Goods-Producing22.721.512-9.42.99.426.716.1

    Market-Services55.14223.619.39.527.241.439.1

    Non-Market Services17.318.814.93217.26.224.932.6

    Figure 1.3

    000s%

    1998126.47.8

    199996.95.7

    200074.54.3

    200165.13.6

    2002774.2

    200382.14.4

    200484.24.4

    200585.64.2

    200691.44.3

    Figure 1.4:2003200420052006participaton peaked????

    Jul-05Jul-06-3.16.840.027.8

    Poland1815

    France9.98.932.744.894.593.5

    Germany9.38.210.821.236.051.90.5551122995

    EU258.7825.016.818.513.8

    Euro-zone8.77.8

    UK4.65.4

    US54.8

    Ireland4.34.4

    Japan4.44.1

    Denmark4.73.9

    Netherlands4.63.9

    Figure 1.5

    Live RegisterUnemployed

    Sep-02164533.33333333379400

    Oct-02164233.333333333

    Nov-02164533.333333333

    Dec-02165166.66666666785300

    Jan-03166266.666666667

    Feb-03167433.333333333

    Mar-03168566.66666666787700

    Apr-03170600

    May-03171700

    Jun-03173666.66666666785700

    Jul-03174600

    Aug-03176000

    Sep-0317550091100

    Oct-03174466.666666667

    Nov-03173000

    Dec-03171966.66666666787000

    Jan-04171300

    Feb-04170833.333333333

    Mar-04170633.33333333386600

    Apr-04169300

    May-04168466.666666667

    Jun-0416720087700

    Jul-04167533.333333333

    Aug-04166866.666666667

    Sep-04165866.66666666786400

    Oct-04163900

    Nov-04161733.333333333

    Dec-04160333.33333333386600

    Jan-05158633.333333333

    Feb-05157466.666666667

    Mar-05157366.66666666785500

    Apr-05156366.666666667

    May-05156666.666666667

    Jun-05155766.66666666788700

    Jul-05157333.333333333

    Aug-05158100

    Sep-05158133.33333333389000

    Oct-05157366.666666667

    Nov-05156900

    Dec-05156966.66666666792200

    Jan-06157233.333333333

    Feb-06157200

    Mar-06157366.66666666792300

    Apr-06157666.666666667

    May-06157966.666666667

    Jun-06158933.33333333394400

    0.1160840436Jul-06158700

    Aug-06158600

    Sep-06157033.333333333

    Figure 1.6

    199920002001200220032004200520062007

    Migration9.111.716.518.210.821.236.051.944.7

    Participation40.021.2-4.53.4-3.16.840.027.822.0

    Natural increase17.924.724.223.625.016.818.513.819.1

    44.8

    85800

    63800

    0.744660

    22000

    19140

    Figure 1.7

    ImmigrantsEmigrants

    198717.240.2

    198819.261.1

    198926.770.6

    199033.356.3

    199133.335.3

    199240.733.4

    199334.735.1

    199430.1034.80

    199531.233.1

    199639.231.2

    199744.525.3

    19984628.6

    199948.931.5

    200052.626.6

    20015926.2

    200266.925.6

    200350.520.7

    200450.118.5

    20057016.6

    200686.917

    Figure 1.8

    3-month average

    Jul-047746

    Aug-047420

    Sep-047292

    Oct-046817

    Nov-047070

    Dec-045836

    Jan-055405

    Feb-055714

    Mar-057141

    Apr-057901

    May-058356

    Jun-059675

    Jul-0511586

    Aug-0511821

    Sep-0511474

    Oct-0510681

    Nov-0510871

    Dec-058957

    Jan-067842

    Feb-068315

    Mar-0610271

    Apr-0610566

    May-0610423

    Jun-0611689

    Jul-0614123

    Aug-0614374

    Sep-0613861

    Oct-0613054

    Figure 1.9

    NewRenewals

    200214,1009,346

    200314,14813,120

    20046,91712,640

    20054,22111,135

    2006435910318

    Figure 1.10

    2003200420052006

    Non-Work Permit3966550,4307045791756

    Work Permit28044889771815924

    Figure 1.11

    Jul-02Aug-02Sep-02Oct-02Nov-02Dec-02Jan-03Feb-03Mar-03Apr-03May-03Jun-03Jul-03Aug-03Sep-03Oct-03Nov-03Dec-03Jan-04Feb-04Mar-04Apr-04May-04Jun-04Jul-04Aug-04Sep-04Oct-04Nov-04Dec-04Jan-05Feb-05Mar-05Apr-05May-05Jun-05Jul-05Aug-05Sep-05Oct-05Nov-05Dec-05Jan-06Feb-06Mar-06Apr-06May-06Jun-06Jul-0638930

    27.924.821.319.319.619.617.315.71514.914.915.115.414.613.612.511.710.910.61111.411.711.211.614.615.211.511.59.88.16.06.07.77.99.012.717.115.912.510.114.115.315.915.214.417.016.718.217.817.5333333333

    Figure 1.12

    Jul-02Aug-02Sep-02Oct-02Nov-02Dec-02Jan-03Feb-03Mar-03Apr-03May-03Jun-03Jul-03Aug-03Sep-03Oct-03Nov-03Dec-03Jan-04Feb-04Mar-04Apr-04May-04Jun-04Jul-04Aug-04Sep-04Oct-04Nov-04Dec-04Jan-05Feb-05Mar-05Apr-05May-05Jun-05Jul-05Aug-05Sep-05Oct-05Nov-05Dec-05Jan-06Feb-06Mar-06Apr-06May-06Jun-06Jul-06Aug-06

    8.93544137787.1080627.60225682228.19814722227.75527945.99451992224.62905403334.43842774.72840766675.75830186677.418460888910.248379210.10728086678.6429757.10708911117.02502911116.22849228894.64831422223.47438842.86108713333.40752533334.59791433336.42902566677.93631906678.11109961117.80056241116.13746217786.21188444445.04874132224.94610906673.21324177782.96161253.38934983333.7221824.18737453337.598329211.289541933311.40971816676.44477364.06123671114.78046924446.51175473337.24511688898.81601238899.676282611.46474233339.39300647.46187057788.07423503337.0436977333

    Figure 1.13

    Jun-00Jul-00Aug-00Sep-00Oct-00Nov-00Dec-00Jan-01Feb-01Mar-01Apr-01May-01Jun-01Jul-01Aug-01Sep-01Oct-01Nov-01Dec-01Jan-02Feb-02Mar-02Apr-02May-02Jun-02Jul-02Aug-02Sep-02Oct-02Nov-02Dec-02Jan-03Feb-03Mar-03Apr-03May-03Jun-03Jul-03Aug-03Sep-03Oct-03Nov-03Dec-03Jan-04Feb-04Mar-04Apr-04May-04Jun-04Jul-04Aug-04Sep-04Oct-04Nov-04Dec-04Jan-05Feb-05Mar-05Apr-05May-05Jun-05Jul-05Aug-05Sep-05Oct-05Nov-05Dec-05Jan-06Feb-06Mar-06Apr-06May-06Jun-06Jul-06

    Skilled8.07.37.07.77.77.36.74.74.33.32.31.72.33.03.02.32.01.71.31.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.00.70.70.71.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.00.71.01.02.02.02.31.71.71.72.02.72.72.72.02.02.02.02.02.32.32.32.01.71.31.01.31.72.02.02.0

    Unskilled5.74.36.06.37.05.34.74.75.04.02.31.31.01.31.31.71.31.31.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.00.70.70.71.01.01.01.01.01.31.31.31.31.71.31.00.71.32.02.01.71.71.72.32.02.32.01.71.31.31.71.71.71.31.72.02.32.01.31.01.31.72.02.0

    Figure 1.14

    1995-20002000-2005

    Business/Dist27

    Manufacturing2730

    Industry2732

    Public2640

    Financial2444

    Construction4847

    Figure 1.15

    SP (Private)

    Jul-03 to Dec-033.0%

    Jan-04 to Jun-042.0%

    July-04 to Nov-042.0%

    Dec-04 to May-051.5%

    Jun-05 to Nov-051.5%

    Dec-05 to May-062.5%

    Figure 1.16

    SP (Public)B'mark

    Jan-04 to Jun-043.0%4.5%

    Jul-04 to Nov-042.0%

    Dec-04 to May-052.0%

    Jun-05 to Nov-051.5%2.3%

    Dec-05 to May-061.5%

    Jun-06 to Nov-062.5%

    Figure 1.17

    WeightedAll

    1996100100

    19979792

    19989290

    19998881

    20008574

    20019071

    20029470

    20039365

    20049264

    20059564

    Figure 1.17

    WeightedAll

    1996100100

    19979792

    1998