Ipsos MORI / Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker Autumn 2016

2

House Price Outlook (HPO)

7%

1%2%

4%

8%

22%

26%

20%

8%

3%

Don't know Lower by 15% or

more

Lower by 10% -

15%

Lower by 5% -

10%

Lower but less

than 5% lower

The same Higher but less

than 5% higher

Higher by 5% -

10%

Higher by 10% -

15%

Higher 15% or

more

.

Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI

Housing Market Consumer Confidence Tracker

Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same?

[respondents given average UK house price*, sourced from Halifax HPI]

* UK house price benchmark given = £213,930

Base: 3,888 GB adults 16+, 23 September – 19 October 2016

3

House Price Outlook trendA

pr-

11

Jun

-11

Au

g-1

1

Oct

-11

Dec-

11

Feb

-12

Ap

r-12

Jun

-12

Au

g-1

2

Oct

-12

Dec-

12

Feb

-13

Ap

r-13

Jun

-13

Au

g-1

3

Oct

-13

Dec-

13

Feb

-14

Ap

r-14

Jun

-14

Au

g-1

4

Oct

-14

Dec-

14

Feb

-15

Ap

r-15

Jun

-15

Au

g-1

5

Oct

-15

Dec-

15

Feb

-16

Ap

r-16

Jun

-16

Au

g-1

6

Oct

-16

HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower (+)

Previous Autumn measures

+63

Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or

will it be the same? [respondents given average UK house price sourced from Halifax HPO]



+42

+-2

+64

+62


4

HPO and EOI trends

HPO EOI

Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same?

Do you think the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next

12 months?



EOI – Ipsos MORI

+42

HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower (+)

EOI – balance of % improve minus % get worse (+)

EOI measures in advance of HPO measure

-1*

* EOI -29, 14-17 Oct 2016


5

HPO and selling sentiment

HPO Selling sentiment

Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months or will it be the same?

Thinking about the next 12 months do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to

sell a property?

Selling sentiment –

% agree good time to

sell

HPO – + balance of

% higher minus %

lower



48

+42


6

Buying and selling sentiment

(±)

net good time buy

(±)

net good time sell

Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people

in general to buy/sell a property?



+17

+9

Base: 1,953 GB adults 16+, 30 September - 19 October 2016

7

Buying/selling sentiment combinedThinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people

in general to buy/sell a property?

Good time buy/bad time sell

Bad time buy/good time sell

-6 +7 -3 +6

Good time buy/good time sell

Bad time buy/bad time sell

+ change vs

Mar 2016



13%17%

33%

21%



Additional questions

9

Brexit and house prices



20% 25%

It will be HIGHER than it

would have been

because the UK decided

to withdraw from the EU

It will be LOWER than it

would have been because

the UK decided to

withdraw from the EU

The decision to

withdraw from the

EU will have made

no difference

Q: Now please think again about the average property price in the UK in 12 months’ time. Do you think that it will be higher than it would have

been because the UK decided to withdraw from the European Union in June this year, will it be lower than it would have been, or will the

decision to withdraw have made no difference to the average property price in Britain?

49% 6%

Don’t Know


10

Brexit and



92%

8%

I was not looking to buy or sell a property before

the June referendum

I was looking to buy or sell a property before the

June referendum

3%

2%

95%

22%

41%

8%

7%

21%

Q:You mentioned that you were thinking of buying or selling a property before

the referendum. Which, if any, of these have happened since the vote in June?

Q: You mentioned that you were not thinking of buying or selling a property before

the referendum. Which, if any, of these apply to the period since the vote in June?

I have gone ahead with plans to sell a property

I have gone ahead with plans to buy a property

I have started looking/plan to sell a property

I have started looking/plan to buy a property

I have delayed or cancelled plans to sell a property because of the vote

I have delayed or cancelled plans for some other reason

I am still not looking/planning to buy or sell a property

I have delayed or cancelled plans to buy a property because of the vote


behaviours

11

Mortgage ratesQ: In 12 months’ time do you think mortgage interest rates will be higher, lower or about the same

as they are now?



Base: 1,027 mortgage holders 16+, 23 September - 19 October 2016

2

36

53

61 4

A lot higher

A little higher

The same

A little lower

A lot lower

Don't know

3

4938

45

A lot higher

A little higher

The same

A little lower

A lot lower

Don't know

Base: 779 mortgage holders 16+, 12-22 June 2015

2016 2015


Further information

[email protected]

[email protected]

Ipsos MORI / Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker Autumn 2016

Real Estate

Transcript of Ipsos MORI / Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker Autumn 2016