Ipsos MORI Halifax Housing Market Confidence …...© Ipsos MORI -80-60-40-20 0 20 40 60 80 +17 +24...
Transcript of Ipsos MORI Halifax Housing Market Confidence …...© Ipsos MORI -80-60-40-20 0 20 40 60 80 +17 +24...
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Ipsos MORI SlideShare summary of findings & trends
05/01/2016
Q4 2015
Q3 2015
© Ipsos MORI
*
House Price Outlook (HPO)
* benchmark given = £205,240 (source: Halifax HPI October 2015)
% mentioning
Q. …Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12
months time or will it be the same? [respondents given average UK house price*]
4
29 25
10
20
Lower by
15% or
more
Lower
by 10%-
15%
Lower
by 5%-
10%
Lower
but less
than 5%
lower
The
same
Higher
but less
than 5%
higher
Higher
by 5%-
10%
Higher
by 10%-
15%
Higher
by 15%
or more
7
Don’t
know
Lower Higher
* 2
Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker
Base: 1,956 GB adults 16+, 04-18 Dec 2015
3
© Ipsos MORI
+9
-2
+7
+19 +15
+15
+20
+33
+40
+64 +66
+65
+66 +62
+57
+62
+52
+60 +64
+58
+68 +64
+63
+61
-20
0
20
40
60
80
HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower (+)
Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or
will it be the same? [respondents given average UK house price sourced from Halifax HPI]
Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker
Base: 1,000-2,000 British adults 16+
House Price Outlook trend
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+9
-2 +7
+19 +15
+15
+20
+33
+40
+64
+66
+65
+66
+62 +57
+62
+52 +60
+64 +58
+68 +64 +63
+61
-28 -32
-48
-14
-32
-9 -6
-19
0
+23
+15
+23 +29
+24 +19
+5 +12
+11
+21 +21 +26
+16 +1 -1
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
HPO
EOI
HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower
EOI – balance of % improve minus % get worse
Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or
will it be the same? (HPO)
Q. Do you think the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or
get worse over the next 12 months? (EOI)
Source: EOI – Ipsos MORI
(measures in advance of or during HMCT fieldwork)
HPO and EOI trends
Source: HPO – Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker
Base: 1,000-2,000 British adults 16+
© Ipsos MORI
+9
-2
+7
+19
+15 +15 +20
+33
+40
+64 +66 +65 +66
+62 +57
+62
+52
+60 +64
+58
+68 +64 +63
+61
18 13
10
24
15 11 13
21
30
41
51 56
57 53 51
55 52
56 59
56 60 59
52 55
-20
0
20
40
60
80
HPO
Sellingsentiment
Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or
will it be the same? (HPO)
Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to sell a property?
HPO and selling sentiment
Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker
Selling sentiment –
% agree good time
to sell
HPO – + balance
of % higher
minus % lower
Base: 1,000-2,000 British adults 16+
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‘Higher’ trends
3%
10%
25%
29%
20%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or
will it be the same? (HPO)
Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker
% the same
% < 5% higher
% 5 - 10% higher
% > 15% higher
% 10 - 15% higher
Base: 1,000-2,000 British adults 16+
© Ipsos MORI
‘Lower’ trends
*%
2%
4%
20%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or
will it be the same? (HPO)
Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker
% the same
% < 5% lower
% 5 - 10% lower
% > 15% lower
% 10 - 15% lower
Base: 1,000-2,000 British adults 16+
© Ipsos MORI
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
+17 +24
+15
Net (±)
Net good time sell
Net good time buy
-43
-63
+18
Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to buy/sell a property?
Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker
-64
-38
-55
+23
-62
+27
Base: 1,000-2,000 British adults 16+
Apr
2011
Oct
2011 Jan
2012
Mar
2012
June
2012
Oct
2012
Dec
2012
+20
-58
+25
-42
Mar
2013
+27
-26
June
2013
Sept
2013
+12
+35
-6
Dec
2013
Buying and selling sentiment
Mar
2014
+24
+25 +34
+25
+5
Jul
2014
+11
+19
Sept
2014
+26
+24 +14
+25
Nov
2014 Dec
2014
+27
+21
Jan
2015
+35
+27
Feb
2015 Mar
2015
+21
+33
+26
+30
Apr
2015
+27
+34
May
2015
+25
+32
June
2015
+20
+20
Sept
2015
+26
+23
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Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to buy/sell a property?
Good time buy/ good time sell
14% 15%
39%
15%
Buying/selling sentiment combined
Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker
Base: 1,956 GB adults 16+, 04 Dec – 18 Dec
Good time buy/ bad time sell
Bad time buy/ good time sell
Bad time buy/ bad time sell
+3 -2 -1 -1
+ change vs September 2015
© Ipsos MORI
44% good time
Regional buying sentiment
Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad
time for people in general to buy a property?
Source: Ipsos MORI for Halifax
GB London
South
England
North
England Midlands
54%
good time
51% good
time
29%
bad time 26%
bad time
31%
bad time
57%
good time
39%
bad time
36%
bad time
47%
good time
Base: 1,956 GB adults 04 Dec – 18 Dec 2015, including 321 in London, 325 South England (SE, SW), 542 North England (NW, NE, Y&H)
and 334 in the Midlands.
© Ipsos MORI
61%
good time
Regional selling sentiment
Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad
time for people in general to sell a property?
Source: Ipsos MORI for Halifax
29%
bad time
GB London South
England North
England Midlands
55%
good time 49%
good time
21%
bad time
34%
bad time
55%
good time 52%
good time
28%
bad time
28%
bad time
Base: 1,956 GB adults 04 Dec – 18 Dec 2015, including 321 in London, 325 South England (SE, SW), 542 North England (NW, NE, Y&H)
and 334 in the Midlands.
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Mortgage and savings interest rates – trend
50%
28%
4%
10%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Mortgage interest rates higher Savings account interest rates higher
Mortgage interest rates lower Savings account interest rates lower
Q5a. In 12 months’ time do you think mortgage interest rates will be higher, lower or the same?
Q5b. In 12 months’ time do you think interest rates for savings account rates will be higher, lower
or the same?
Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker
Base: c.1000 British adults1,956 age 16+
% mortgage higher
% mortgage lower
% savings higher
% savings lower
© Ipsos MORI
58
42
37
31
20
11
11
10
9
3
3
3
Being able to raise enough deposit
Job security
Rising property prices
Household finances
The general availability of mortgages
Concerns about rises in interest rates
Fees related to buying a house
Shortage of property for sale
Shortage of the right type of property
The level of stamp duty/taxation
Falling property prices
Don’t know
Q. Now thinking about the current situation, which 2 or 3 of these, if any, do you think are the main barriers to people in general being able to buy a property?
Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker
Barriers to buying
Change + vs Sept 2015
+1
0
+6
0
+3
-5
0
0
0
0
+1
Base: 1,956 GB adults 16+, 12 – 24 Sept 2015
0
© Ipsos MORI
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
% job security % finances % rises in interest rates % rising property prices
% raise enough deposit % mortgages % shortage want to live % shortage want to buy
% falling property prices % fees and costs % stamp duty/taxation
11%
Q5. Now thinking about the current situation, which 2 or 3 of these, if any, do you think
are the main barriers to people in general being able to buy a property?
Barriers to buying – trend data
58%
42%
37%
31%
20%
11%
9%
Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker
Base: 1,000 – 2,000 British adults 16+
3%
10%
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05/01/2016 © Ipsos MORI
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