Investment Research Weekly Credit Update · Vattenfall Q3 14 – HOLD Vattenfall’s Q3 14 results...
Transcript of Investment Research Weekly Credit Update · Vattenfall Q3 14 – HOLD Vattenfall’s Q3 14 results...
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Investment Research
Headlines
ECB confirms its target for asset buying plans.
Further rouble weakness.
Electrolux downgraded by S&P.
Market commentary
European credit indices have seen a gradual tightening this week. In the latter part of the
week, the credit market has found renewed support following the ECB’s confirmation on
Thursday that it aims to carry out its asset buying plan as previously communicated.
While earlier in the week the media reported rising tension among the members of the
ECB board and that some national central bank governors were willing to challenge ECB
president Mario Draghi, these reports proved to be exaggerated, at least for the time
being.
In the ECB’s statement, the central bank has stipulated a target of growing its balance
sheet up to the levels seen in 2012, i.e. indicating balance sheet growth of around
EUR1,000bn. This target was said to be unanimous. Mario Draghi also claimed that the
ECB’s council was unanimous in its willingness to use further unconventional tools,
including quantitative easing, if necessary. The ECB’s staff are now said to be working
on the potential additional measures that could be applied in addition to the already-
announced purchases of covered bonds and asset-backed securities. So far, the ECB has
bought only some EUR5bn of covered bonds, while acquisitions of asset-backed
securities should start later this month.
We regard the ECB’s continued commitment to an overall asset purchasing plan of
EUR1,000bn as broadly supportive for European credit spreads. As we do not regard the
European covered bond and asset-backed markets as large enough for the ECB to be able
to reach this volume target, European corporate bonds would be a natural next step for the
ECB to consider purchasing. A rough estimate suggests that there is a total of EUR930bn
of outstanding rated investment grade non-financial bonds (of which EUR620bn relates to
euro area corporates). Assuming the ECB could buy up to a maximum of 40% of the
outstanding volumes (an aggressive assumption), this would result in a potential purchase
volume of roughly EUR300bn.
7 November 2014
Analyst Louis Landeman +46 8 568 80524 [email protected]
Contents
Market commentary ................................................. 1
Selected charts ............................................................ 2
Recently published research ............................... 4
Official and shadow ratings ................................... 6
Weekly Credit Update
iTraxx Europe (investment grade)
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets
iTraxx Crossover (high yield)
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets
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Table 1. Selected issues
Name Rating Coupon Cur. Tenor Size Spread*
DNA -/-/- 2.875% EUR 6.5Y 150 MS + 235 Ireland A-/Baa1/A- 2.4% EUR 15.5Y 3,750 MS + 102 Sweden AAA/Aaa/AAA 1% USD 3YR 3,000 MS-7 SEB A1/A+/A+ 5.75% USD 5.5Y 1,100 MS+385
Size in million, ratings are senior unsecured ratings from Standard & Poor’s/Moody’s/Fitch
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets
This week has seen decent activity in primary markets, with a mix of corporate, financial
and sovereign issuers being active in the markets. Among corporates, Finnish telecoms
operator DNA issued a EUR150m bond maturing in March 2021 at m/s+235bp. Among
sovereigns, the Republic of Ireland issued a EUR3.75bn long 15-year bond at m/s+102bp,
which was met by strong demand, with total orders exceeding EUR8bn. In USD, the
Kingdom of Sweden did a three-year USD3bn bond at m/s-7bp. Among financials,
Swedish bank SEB issued its inaugural AT1 in the USD market. The bond was issued in
the form of a perpetual with non-call for 5.5 years (May 2020) and at a yield of 5.75%,
from initial price thoughts in the area of 6%.
Further rouble weakness
The rouble has accelerated its continued fall in the past days. On Wednesday, the central
bank of Russia changed strategy. Until now, the Russian central bank has aimed to keep
the rouble’s fall in check by applying automatic intervention in order to keep the currency
in a trading band but with a cap on daily interventions of USD350m. According to its new
policy, the central bank has stopped these daily interventions and instead stated that it will
make larger one-off interventions ‘if necessary for financial stability’.
How the market responds to this change in strategy remains to be seen in the coming
weeks. If it is not seen as credible, there is a clear risk that the fall in the rouble could
accelerate further. As a point of reference, prior to this announcement, the rouble had
already weakened against the euro by 13% since the end of Q3.
Companies within our coverage with significant exposure to the development of the
rouble include Carlsberg (38% of EBIT derived from Russia), Nokian Tyres (33% of
sales), Stockmann (17% of sales), YIT (24% of sales) and to a minor extent Atlas Copco
and DLG.
Electrolux downgraded by S&P
Late on Thursday, Standard & Poor’s announced that it had downgraded its rating on
Swedish home appliances manufacturer Electrolux from ‘BBB+’ to ‘BBB’. The outlook
is stable. The downgrade follows the company’s recent acquisition of GE Appliances
from General Electric for USD3.3bn in cash. The majority debt-financed acquisition is
expected to close in mid-2015. Once the acquisition closes in 2015, S&P expects
Electrolux to increase its debt from around SEK12bn currently to over SEK30bn. In order
to maintain its rating at the ‘BBB’ level, S&P expects Electrolux rapidly to bring down
leverage again, in order for the company’s debt to EBITDA ratio to decline to around
2.5x in 2016 (from the 3.0x expected in 2015). We currently have a HOLD
recommendation on Electrolux bonds.
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Selected charts
iTraxx (Europe) vs CDX (US) Investment grade corporate yields
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets
Nordic corporates vs iTraxx Nordic banks 5Y CDS spreads
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets
Corporate BBB bond yield vs EuroSTOXX dividend yield 3M Libor OIS spreads
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets
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Financials spread vs non-financials (Industrials), A-rated
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets
Europe fund flows Sweden fund flows Norway fund flows
Source: Macrobond Financial Source: Macrobond Financial Source: Macrobond Financial
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Recently published research
Statkraft Q3 14 – BUY
Statkraft’s Q3 14 report was strong from a credit perspective. Net comparable revenues
rose 8% y/y on the back of higher hydro production and more fixed price contracts and
despite a weaker Nordic power price. Group clean EBITDA improved 22% y/y.
Statkraft’s net debt position was boosted by asset sales taking adjusted credit metrics
stronger but also weakening the business risk profile slightly. Metrics are now solid
compared with Statkraft’s current ratings. We continue to consider its bonds attractive
given the Norwegian owners’ support and Statkraft’s strong underlying earnings. We
maintain our Buy recommendation preferring the shorter end of the curve.
Securitas Q3 14 – HOLD
Securitas’s Q3 14 report was solid with a pickup in organic growth and only slight margin
pressure due to Spain. Credit metrics improved slightly y/y and adjusted net debt to LTM
EBITDA was 3.3x. We believe Securitas will increase its capex spending in the high-tech
security segment and we believe this will continue to constrain credit metrics. We see
bonds as fairly valued and maintain our HOLD recommendation. In the sector, we
continue to prefer G4S (BUY).
DONG Energy Q3 14 – HOLD
DONG Energy’s Q3 14 results were mixed from a credit perspective. Comparable
revenues rose 1% y/y, due mainly to higher oil and gas production sold at hedged prices.
Group clean reported EBITDA fell 7% due to wind asset divestments and weak thermal
power margins. DONG’s FCF was negative in Q3, taking group net debt higher. DONG’s
reported adjusted LTM FFO to net debt fell q/q to 32%, from 35%. DONG made a slight
positive revision to its FY guidance seeing stronger credit metrics at end-2014 than
previously. We see no rating pressure on DONG’s ‘BBB+’ rating and we still think this is
also the case in the medium term. We maintain our HOLD recommendation due to tight
pricing of DONG’s senior bonds. We see value in DONG’s call 15 and call 18 hybrids,
however, as we see little permanence risk.
YIT Q3 14
We are cautiously positive on YIT’s performance in Q3. While market conditions remain
challenging, especially in Russia, the company delivered some debt reduction in the
quarter. Also, some initiatives were taken to streamline the business. We maintain our
view of YIT as a ‘B’ credit with negative outlook. Our credit view assumes that the
company can successfully refinance its upcoming debt maturities over the coming
quarters. We would also like to see a continued reduction in leverage and improving
margins.
Vattenfall Q3 14 – HOLD
Vattenfall’s Q3 14 results were weak. Underlying operations deteriorated y/y on the back
of weaker prices, lower hydro output and tough generation margins. Comparable
EBITDA fell 12% y/y. Adjusted credit metrics deteriorated on the back of lower earnings
and are now relatively weak for agency requirements. Negative rating action could be
ahead. Vattenfall has taken a rather sizable SEK23.1bn impairment, relating mainly to its
non-Nordic operations. It also targets part of these as being for sale. We expect a dividend
and capex reduction announcement, which should cushion the negative credit impact
from this report. We maintain our HOLD recommendation but see value in the VATFAL
21s.
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Ratings from Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings 1 of 2
Source: Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, Fitch, Danske Bank Markets
Analyst(s)
Company Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating OutlookAhlstrom Oyj B+ Stable Mads RosendalAkelius Residential Ab BB+ Pos BB Wiveca SwartingAmbu A/S BBB- Stable Jakob MagnussenAp Moeller - Maersk A/S BBB+ Stable Baa1 Stable Brian Børsting BUYArla Foods Amba BBB+ Stable Mads RosendalAtlas Copco Ab A Stable A2 Stable Mads Rosendal SELLAvinor As AA- Stable A1 Stable Åse Haagensen HOLDBank 1 Oslo Akershus As BBB+ Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmBank Norwegian As BBB Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmBeerenberg Holdco Ii As B+ Stable Øyvind MossigeBw Offshore BB+ Stable Øyvind MossigeCargotec Oyj BBB- Stable Mads RosendalCarlsberg Breweries A/S Baa2 Stable BBB Stable Brian Børsting SELLCermaq Asa BB Stable Knut-Ivar BakkenCitycon Oyj BBB Stable Baa2 Stable Åse HaagensenColor Group As BB- Stable B+ Åse HaagensenDanske Bank A/S A Neg Baa1 Pos A StableDfds A/S BB+ Stable Brian BørstingDlg Finance As BB- Stable Mads RosendalDna Ltd BBB- Stable Ola HeldalDnb Bank Asa A+ Stable A1 Neg T. Hovard / L. Holm HOLDDong Energy A/S BBB+ Stable Baa1 Stable BBB+ Stable Jakob Magnussen HOLDDsv A/S BBB Stable Brian BørstingEg Holding B Stable Jakob MagnussenEika Boligkreditt As A- Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmEika Gruppen As BBB Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmElectrolux Ab BBB Wr WD Brian Børsting HOLDElisa Oyj BBB Pos Baa2 Stable Ola Heldal BUYEntra Eiendom As A- Stable Åse HaagensenFarstad Shipping Asa BB Neg BB- Åse HaagensenFingrid Oyj A+ Stable A1 Stable A+ Stable Jakob Magnussen BUYFinnair Oyj BB Stable Brian BørstingFortum Oyj A- Neg A2 Neg A- Neg Jakob Magnussen SELLFortum Varme Holding Samagt Med Stockholms Stad Ab BBB+ Stable Jakob MagnussenFred Olsen Energy Asa BB+ Neg Sondre StormyrG4S Plc BBB- Stable Brian Børsting BUYGetinge Ab BB+ Neg Louis LandemanHeimstaden Ab BB Stable BB- Wiveca SwartingHemso Fastighets Ab BBB+ Stable Wiveca SwartingHoist Kredit Ab BB- Stable B+ Gabriel BerginHusqvarna Ab BBB- Pos Louis LandemanInvestor Ab AA- Stable A1 Stable Brian Børsting BUYIss A/S BBB- Stable Baa3 Stable Brian Børsting HOLDJ Lauritzen A/S B Stable B- Åse HaagensenJernhusen Ab A- Stable Gabriel BerginJyske Bank A/S A- Stable Baa1 Neg Thomas M. Hovard BUYKesko Oyj BBB Stable Mads RosendalKlaveness Ship Holding As BB- Stable B+ Bjørn Kristian RøedMeda Ab BB- Stable Louis LandemanMetsa Board Oyj B+ Pos B2 Pos Mads RosendalMetso Oyj BBB Stable Baa2 Neg Mads Rosendal HOLDNcc Ab BBB- Stable Wiveca SwartingNeste Oil Oyj BBB- Stable Jakob Magnussen HOLDNokia Oyj BB Pos Ba2 Stable BB Stable Ola Heldal HOLDNokian Renkaat Oyj BBB+ Stable Jakob MagnussenNordea Bank Ab AA- Neg Aa3 Neg AA- Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm SELLNorth Atlantic Drilling Ltd BB Stable BB- Sondre StormyrNorwegian Air Shuttle Asa BB- Stable B+ Brian BørstingNorwegian Property Asa BBB- Stable Åse HaagensenNykredit Bank A/S A+ Neg Baa2U Stable A Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm BUYNynas Group B+ Stable B+ Jakob MagnussenOdfjell Se B+ Stable B Bjørn Kristian RøedOlav Thon Eiendomsselskap Asa BBB+ Stable Åse HaagensenOlympic Shipping As B+ Stable B Åse HaagensenOrkla Asa BBB+ Pos Åse HaagensenOutokumpu Oyj B- Pos Mads RosendalPohjola Bank Oyj AA- Neg Aa3 Neg A+ Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm SELLPosten Norge As A- Stable Åse HaagensenPostnord Ab BBB+ Stable Gabriel BerginProsafe Se BB Stable Åse HaagensenRamirent Oyj BB+ Stable Brian Børsting
S&P Moody's FitchDanske Bank Recomm.
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Ratings from Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch and Danske Bank markets shadow ratings 2 of 2
Source: Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, Fitch, Danske Bank Markets
Analyst(s)
Company Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating OutlookSaab Ab BBB+ Stable Wr Wiveca SwartingSampo Oyj Baa2 Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm HOLDSandnes Sparebank BBB+ Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmSandvik Ab BBB Stable Mads Rosendal HOLDSas Ab B- Stable Wr Pos Brian BørstingSbab Bank Ab A Neg A2 Neg T. Hovard / L. Holm HOLDScania Ab A- Stable Mads Rosendal HOLDSchibsted Asa BBB Stable Åse HaagensenSeadrill Ltd BB+ Stable BB Sondre StormyrSecuritas Ab BBB Stable Wr Brian Børsting HOLDSkandinaviska Enskilda Banken Ab A+ Neg A1 Neg A+ Pos T. Hovard / L. Holm BUYSkanska Ab BBB+ Stable Wiveca SwartingSkf Ab BBB+ Stable Baa1 Stable Mads Rosendal SELLSolstad Offshore Asa BB- Stable B+ Åse HaagensenSpar Nord Bank A/S BBB+ Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmSparebank 1 Boligkreditt As A- Stable Lars HolmSparebank 1 Nord Norge A2 Neg A Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm HOLDSparebank 1 Smn A2 Neg A- Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm HOLDSparebank 1 Sr-Bank Asa A2 Neg A- Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm HOLDSponda Oyj BBB- Stable Wiveca SwartingSt1 Nordic Oy BB Stable Jakob MagnussenStatkraft Sf A- Stable Aaa Stable Jakob Magnussen BUYStatnett Sf A+ Stable Wr Stable Jakob Magnussen HOLDStatoil Asa AA- Stable Aa2 Stable Jakob Magnussen SELLSteen & Strom As BBB+ Stable Åse HaagensenStena Ab BB Stable B2 Stable Brian Børsting BUYStockmann Oyj Abp B+ Stable Mads RosendalStolt-Nielsen Ltd BB+ Stable BB Bjørn Kristian RøedStora Enso Oyj BB Stable Ba2 Neg WD Mads Rosendal HOLDStorebrand Bank Asa BBB+ Stable BBB+ Neg Baa1 Neg T. Hovard / L. HolmSuomen Hypoteekkiyhdistys A- Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmSwedavia Ab A- Stable Gabriel BerginSwedbank Ab A+ Neg A1 Neg A+ Pos T. Hovard / L. Holm BUYSwedish Match Ab BBB Stable Baa2 Stable Brian Børsting HOLDSvensk Fastighetsfinansiering Ab BBB Stable Louis LandemanSvenska Cellulosa Ab Sca A- Stable Baa1 Stable Mads Rosendal BUYSvenska Handelsbanken Ab AA- Neg Aa3 Neg AA- Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm HOLDSydbank A/S Baa1 Neg T. Hovard / L. Holm BUYTallink Group As BB Stable BB- Jakob MagnussenTalvivaara Mining Co Plc C Mads RosendalTdc A/S BBB Neg Baa3 Stable BBB Stable Ola Heldal HOLDTeekay Offshore Partners Lp BB- Stable B+ Bjørn Kristian RøedTele2 Ab BBB Stable Ola HeldalTelefonaktiebolaget Lm Ericsson BBB+ Stable Baa1 Stable BBB+ Neg Ola Heldal HOLDTelenor Asa A- Pos A3 Stable Ola Heldal HOLDTeliasonera Ab A- Stable A3 Neg A- Stable Ola Heldal SELLTeollisuuden Voima Oyj BBB Neg Wr BBB Stable Jakob Magnussen BUYThon Holding As BBB+ Stable Åse HaagensenTine Sa BBB+ Stable Ola HeldalUpm-Kymmene Oyj BB Pos Ba1 Stable WD Mads Rosendal HOLDVasakronan Ab BBB+ Stable Wiveca SwartingVattenfall Ab A- Stable A3 Stable A- Neg Jakob Magnussen HOLDVestas Wind Systems A/S BBB- Pos Niklas Ripa BUYWilh Wilhelmsen Asa BBB- Stable Bjørn Kristian RøedVolvo Ab BBB Neg Baa2 Neg BBB Stable Mads Rosendal HOLDYit Oyj B Neg Louis Landeman
Danske Bank S&P Moody's Fitch Recomm.
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Knut-Ivar Bakken
Fish farming (+47) 85 40 70 74 [email protected]
Wiveca Swarting
Real Estate, Construction (+46) 8 568 80617 [email protected]
Ola Heldal
TMT (+47) 85408433 [email protected]
Henrik René Andresen
Credit Portfolios (+45) 45 13 33 27 [email protected]
Brian Børsting
Industrials (+45) 45 12 85 19 [email protected]
Mads Rosendal
Industrials, Pulp & Paper (+45) 45 14 88 79 [email protected]
Lars Holm
Financials (+45) 45 12 80 41 [email protected]
Jakob Magnussen
Utilities, Energy (+45) 45 12 85 03 [email protected]
Åse Haagensen
High Yield, Industrials (+47) 22 86 13 22 [email protected]
Fixed Income Credit Research
Louis Landeman
TMT, Industrials (+46) 8 568 80524 [email protected]
Thomas Hovard
Head of Credit Research (+45) 45 12 85 05
Find the latest Credit Research
Danske Bank Markets: Bloomberg: http://www.danskebank.com/danskemarketsresearch DNSK<GO>
Gabriel Bergin
Strategy, Industrials (+46) 8 568 80602 [email protected]
Niklas Ripa
High Yield, Industrials (+45) 45 12 80 47 [email protected]
Bjørn Kristian Røed
Shipping (+47) 85 40 70 72 [email protected]
Sondre Dale Stormyr
Offshore rigs (+47) 85 40 70 70 [email protected]
Øyvind Mossige
Oil services (+47) 85 40 54 91 [email protected]
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Disclosures
This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S (‘Danske
Bank’). The author of the research report is Louis Landeman, Analyst.
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