Investment Insights from CI Investment Consulting Yoonjai Shin, CFA Director, CI Investment...

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Investment Insights from CI Investment Consulting Yoonjai Shin, CFA Director, CI Investment Consulting

Transcript of Investment Insights from CI Investment Consulting Yoonjai Shin, CFA Director, CI Investment...

Investment Insights fromCI Investment Consulting

Yoonjai Shin, CFADirector, CI Investment Consulting

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Agenda

• Team, philosophy and process

• Performance drivers

• Investment outlook

• Q & A

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Yoonjai Shin, CFADirector

Fund/manager analysisAsset allocationsCurrency strategy

Fund selectionProject management

Andrew AshworthAnalyst

Fund/manager analysisCash flow managementPerformance reporting

Lewis Harkes, CFASenior Analyst

Fund/manager analysisPerformance reporting

Alfred Lam, CFA VP & Portfolio Manager

Investment strategy / Asset allocationsFund selection/ Currency strategy

Communications

Marchello Holditch, CFASenior Analyst

Fund/manager analysis

CI Investment Consulting team

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Total return = Asset mix + Alpha + Market beta + Currency – Tax – Fees

Optimize

Maximize Manage

Manage/

reduce Minimize

Reduce

Total return equation

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Depth and quality of portfolio management teams

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Attribution analysis of Evolution models

Please refer to the next page for full performance history

Multiple sources of added value

80i20e 70i30e 60i40e 50i50e 40i60e 30i70e 20i80e 100e

Total Return (net MER) Total Return 7.6% 10.2% 13.4% 15.8% 19.2% 22.1% 25.1% 31.2%Blended Index (net MER)* Market Return (Beta) 1.8% 4.3% 6.9% 9.4% 12.0% 14.6% 17.1% 22.3%Added Value Active Management 5.8% 5.9% 6.5% 6.3% 7.2% 7.6% 7.9% 8.9%

Asset mix 4.1% 3.9% 4.0% 3.0% 3.1% 2.7% 2.3% 1.9%Currency (Total) -0.1% -0.1% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.3% -0.3% -0.3%

Currency model -0.6% -0.7% -0.9% -1.1% -1.3% -1.5% -1.6% -1.8%Currency tactics 0.5% 0.6% 0.8% 0.9% 1.0% 1.2% 1.3% 1.5%

Security Selection 1.8% 2.2% 2.6% 3.6% 4.4% 5.1% 5.9% 7.3%*Blended benchmark is a blended performance of the DEX Universe Bond Index for the income portion and a blend of 50% S&P/TSX Composite Index and 50% MSCI World Index C$ for the equity portion; the same MER charged to our portfolio was deducted from the index performance.

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Performance of Evolution models

Standard models represent mix of pools and mutual funds recommended by CI Investment Consulting.Returns are net of fees.

As of September 30, 2013 3m 6m YTD 1y 2y 3y 5yEvolution 100i 0.7 -0.8 0.7 2.2 4.6 3.6 5.2Evolution 80i20e 1.2 0.9 4.5 6.5 7.3 5.2 5.4Evolution 70i30e 1.6 1.9 6.3 8.6 8.6 5.9 5.6Evolution 60i40e 2.1 3.0 8.4 11.1 10.2 6.6 5.8Evolution 50i50e 2.6 3.8 10.0 13.2 11.7 7.3 6.1Evolution 40i60e 3.2 5.1 12.3 15.8 13.5 8.3 6.5Evolution 30i70e 3.7 6.0 14.2 18.0 15.0 8.9 6.7Evolution 20i80e 4.1 7.1 16.1 20.3 16.5 9.5 6.8Evolution 100e 5.1 9.2 19.9 24.6 18.8 10.6 7.2

As of December 31, 2013 3m 6m YTD 1y 2y 3y 5yEvolution 100i 1.8 2.4 2.5 2.5 4.4 4.4 5.3Evolution 80i20e 3.0 4.2 7.6 7.6 7.5 5.7 6.9Evolution 70i30e 3.7 5.4 10.2 10.2 9.2 6.3 7.5Evolution 60i40e 4.6 6.8 13.4 13.4 11.0 7.1 8.0Evolution 50i50e 5.3 8.0 15.8 15.8 12.7 7.7 8.9Evolution 40i60e 6.2 9.5 19.2 19.2 14.7 8.6 10.1Evolution 30i70e 7.0 10.9 22.1 22.1 16.5 9.2 10.8Evolution 20i80e 7.7 12.1 25.1 25.1 18.2 9.9 11.4Evolution 100e 9.4 15.0 31.2 31.2 21.3 11.0 12.5

Multiple sources of added value

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14 out of 18 pools outperformed their benchmarks

Portfolio Advisor2013 Performance

(Class W) Out-performance

Out-performers:United Canadian Equity Growth Pool Cambridge 48.6 35.6United Canadian Equity Small Cap Pool QV Investors 36.6 28.8United Canadian Equity Alpha Corporate Class QV Investors 30.0 17.0United Canadian Equity Value Pool Tetrem 29.9 16.9United International Equity Growth Pool Cambridge & PMAM 38.1 6.2United US Equity Alpha Corporate Class Tetrem 46.6 4.9United U.S. Equity Growth Pool Wellington 46.1 4.4United Canadian Fixed Income Pool Signature & Lawrence Park 0.7 1.9United International Equity Alpha Corporate Class PMAM 33.5 1.6United U.S. Equity Value Pool Epoch 43.0 1.3United Emerging Markets Pool Signature 5.5 1.0United Real Estate Investment Pool Cohen & Steers 12.6 0.9United Enhanced Income Pool Signature 10.2 0.8United Cash Management Pool Signature 1.2 0.2Under-performers:United Short Term Income Pool Signature 1.5 -0.3United International Equity Value Pool Altrinsic 31.3 -0.6United Global Fixed Income Pool Signature 1.2 -1.0United U.S. Equity Small Cap Pool Epoch 46.4 -2.1

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Alpha funds have added alpha

As of December 31, 2013

1-Year 2-Year 3-Year 4-Year 5-Year Inception**(Annualized) (Annualized) (Annualized) (Annualized) (Annualized)

Cdn Alpha 30.3% 22.8% 14.2% 14.6% 17.3% 11.4%S&P/TSX Composite Index 13.0% 10.1% 3.4% 6.8% 11.9% 2.8%US Alpha 46.8% 26.0% 14.9% 13.7% 16.9% 10.8%S&P 500 Index (C$) 41.7% 26.6% 18.7% 16.2% 14.7% 9.5%Intl Alpha 33.9% 25.7% 10.4% 11.0% 11.9% 6.7%MSCI EAFE Index (C$) 31.9% 23.1% 11.0% 8.8% 9.9% 4.5%

Alpha: 1/3 Canada, 1/3 US, 1/3 Intl 37.0% 24.8% 13.2% 13.1% 15.4% 9.6%Index: 1/3 TSX, 1/3 S&P 500, 1/3 EAFE 28.9% 19.9% 11.0% 10.6% 12.2% 5.6%Added Value 8.1% 4.9% 2.1% 2.5% 3.2% 4.0%

*Note performances reported above are gross-of-fees**Inception date was August 31, 2008Source: Investment Consulting, Dexia, Bloomberg

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Canadian dollar (US$)

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13

Dynamic hedging introduced

12% cumulative return$120 million added value

50% hedged

30% hedged

10% hedged

70% hedged

30% hedged

Source: Bloomberg, CI Investments

Currency management also sets us apart

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Portfolio Series - Best Fund of Funds Award - 2011

Portfolio Series - Best Fund of Funds Award - 2012

Portfolio Series Income Fund - Best Global Fixed Income Balanced Award - 2012

Portfolio Series Income Fund - Best Global Fixed Income Balanced Award - 2013

Portfolio Select Series - Best Fund of Funds Award - 2013

Industry recognition

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Sound and proven philosophy

Solid track record

Industry recognition

Strong net flows

To sum it up…

13For illustration purposes only; there is no guarantee on results

Outlook: Return expectations

Equity Funds 6-8%

Balanced Funds 5-7%

Select Income 3-4%Bond Funds

0-1%

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

2013

expected range of returns actual returns in 2013

14Source: TD Securities, CPMS, I/B/E/S

Outlook: Equity market

26 26

24 24

22 22

20 20

18 18

16 16

14 14

12 12

10 10

8 886 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

TSXS&P 500

Forward Price to Earnings Multiples

Broad markets are reasonably priced; stock selection to matter more

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5-Year Government of Canada bond yields

Source: Bank of Canada

Bonds remain challenged but volatility offers opportunities

Outlook: Bond market

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

Dec-1

1

Feb-1

2

Apr-

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Jun-1

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Aug-1

2

Oct-

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Dec-1

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Feb-1

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Apr-

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Jun-1

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Aug-1

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Dec-1

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Represented by Select Income Managed Corporate Class

Source: CI Investments

Weighting (%) 2011Q4

2012Q1

2012Q2

2012Q3

2012Q4

2013Q1

2013Q2

2013Q3

2013Q4 Target

Cash 12 15 21 21 27 34 24 21 22 0%

Government & IG corporate

49 44 41 41 36 31 44 48 44 60%

High yield bonds

21 22 19 18 15 13 12 11 14 20%

High-dividend Stocks

18 19 19 20 22 22 20 20 20 20%

Duration (yrs) 5.1 4.5 4.2 4.1 4.1 3.3 3.7 4.0 3.7

Dynamic income asset mix to achieve superior risk-adjusted returns

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FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY

Select Income Managed Corporate ClassPerformance as of December 31, 2013

% 3Mth 6Mth YTD 1Yr 3Yr 5YrSince

Inception* Risk

Select Income Managed Corporate Class (Class A)

1.7 2.6 4.0 4.0 4.4 6.1 3.9 2.3

DEX Universe Bond Index 0.4 0.5 -1.2 -1.2 3.9 4.8 n/a 3.1

*November 2005

Performance has met expectations

18Total: 97 observations (months)

Select Income Managed Corporate ClassMonthly Return Distribution

6%

16%

57%

18%

3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

<-1% -1% to 0% 0% to 1% 1% to 2% >2%

Monthly Return Ranges

Fre

qu

ency

Controlled volatility

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