Introduction to SUSPLAN - AAEE · [email protected] 10th IAEE European Conference Vienna, 8...

Introduction to SUSPLANIntroduction to SUSPLAN

Bjørn H. Bakken, PhDBjørn H. Bakken, PhDSINTEF Energy ResearchSINTEF Energy Research

[email protected]@sintef.no

10th IAEE European Conference10th IAEE European ConferenceViennaVienna, 8 September 2009

2009-09-082

IAEE European Conference, Vienna

Trondheim (1450)

Oslo (450)

Independent non-profit researchorganization established in 1950

by the Norwegian Institute ofTechnology (NTH)

Income 2007: € 290 mill.

Employees: 1,900

2009-09-083


The Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)

University of Oslo (UiO), Faculty of mathematics and natural sciences

Representing resources of: 24,500 full-time students1,500 scientific employees

150 Post. Doc750 PhD Students

Joint use oflaboratories and

instruments

SINTEF employeesteach and supervise

at NTNU

NTNU personnelcontribute in

SINTEF projects

Academic partnershipsAcademic partnerships

2009-09-084


OBJECTIVE:To develop a comprehensive set of robust guidelines forinfrastructure and network decision makers and power distributorsregionally and across Europe.

The guidelines will be established on the basis of extensive regionaland trans-national scenario studies.

They will consist of strategies, recommendations, criteria andbenchmarks for more efficient integration of renewable energysources (RES) into future infrastructures in the time perspective of2030-2050

Duration: 36 months (September 2008 – August 2011)

Consortium: 16 partners

Coordinator: SINTEF Energy Research, [email protected]

- SUSPLAN -- SUSPLAN -Development of regional and Pan-European guidelines for moreDevelopment of regional and Pan-European guidelines for more

efficient integration of renewable energy into future infrastructuresefficient integration of renewable energy into future infrastructures

2009-09-085


NORWAYCoordinator:

• SINTEFStakeholders:

• Statkraft,Statnett

POLANDPartner:

• EC BREC IEOStakeholder:• (Pomorskie)

SCOTLAND, UKPartners:

• UHI MillenniumInstitute, CnESStakeholder:• nPOWER

THE NETHERLANDSPartner:

• ECNStakeholder:

• (GTS)

GERMANYPartners:

• Fraunhofer-ISI, MVV, DenaStakeholders:• EnBW, ZMB,

E.ONRuhrgas, EWE

Netz,Vattenfall,

RWE

CZECH REPUBLICPartner:

• ENVIROS

ROMANIAPartner:• ENERO

BULGARIAPartner:• BSREC

Stakeholder:• Sofia EDC

SERBIAPartner:

• StatkraftWesternBalkans

AUSTRIAPartners:

• EEG• Verbund-AHP

SPAINPartner:

• UP ComillasStakeholders:

• RED Eléctricia,Iberdrola

ITALYPartner:

• CESI-RICERCAStakeholders:• Terna, GSE

The SUSPLAN ConsortiumThe SUSPLAN Consortium

2009-09-086


Tools

Strategies

Scenarios

SUSPLAN work packagesSUSPLAN work packages

WP 1(SINTEF)

Setupof

Scenarios

WP 2 (EEG)Grid related

regional scenarios2030-2050

Project management (SINTEF)

WP 6(Dena)

Dissemi-nation

&Exploitation

WP 3 (ECN)Trans-national

scenarios2030-2050

WP 5 (Fraunhofer)Implementation strategies

for decision makers

WP 4 (SINTEF)Scenario modelling tools

2009-09-087


WP 2: Regional scenario studiesWP 2: Regional scenario studies

Islands• Responsible: UHI• Partner: CnES

Northern Europe• Responsible: SINTEF

West/Central Europe• Responsible: ECN• Partner: MVV, Dena

North-East• Responsible: EC BREC

IEO• Partner: ENVIROS

South-East• Responsible: ENERO• Partner: BSREC

South-West• Responsible: UP Comillas

South• Responsible: CESI-R

Western Balkans• Responsible: SWB• Partners: BSREC, EEG

Alpine• Responsible: AHP• Partner: EEG

2009-09-088


Difficult future for high RESintegration. Few new technologies

are available, and low interest toinvest. Mainly centralized

development with traditionaltechnologies

New technologies are available,but low interest to invest and

use. Mainly centralizeddevelopment, but with new

technologies.

Positive future for high RESintegration, but too low

technology development rate.Mainly decentralized development

Positive future for high RESintegration. Both market pull

and technology pushexisting.

4 Storylines (2020-) 2030-20504 Storylines (2020-) 2030-2050

Fast tech developmentMajor break-throughsseveral technologies,RES, grids, demand

side

Slow tech developmentNo major technology

break-throughs; gradualdevelopment of

current technologies

Positive public attitudeHigh environmental focus in population and business.

Reduced energy consumption and demand for environmentally friendly products

Indifferent public attitudeLow environmental focus in population and business.

Higher energy consumption and no demand for environmentally friendly products or services

GreenGreenYellowYellow

BlueBlueRedRed

2009-09-089


SUSPLAN Storylines

Scenario setup 2030-2050Scenario setup 2030-2050

Based on existing studies

‘Today’

2010 2020 20402030 2050

Shar

e of

RES

Time (Year)

Min. RES levels

Scenario analysesRegional / Trans-national

Assume that2020 goals

are reachedbefore 2030

Electricity market model of EuropeElectricity market model of Europe A fully integrated Europeanelectricity market will be used as a

common reference between theSUSPLAN regions

Stochastic market model includingwind and hydro data

Includes non-RES technologies likenuclear and CCS in the market

balance

Includes also the regions andcountries NOT directly analyzed in

SUSPLAN

Similar approach for gasinfrastructures?

A modeling approach for moreA modeling approach for moreefficient integration of renewableefficient integration of renewableenergy into future infrastructuresenergy into future infrastructures

Bjørn H. Bakken, Michael M. BelsnesBjørn H. Bakken, Michael M. BelsnesSINTEF Energy ResearchSINTEF Energy Research

Hans AuerHans AuerEEG, TU-WienEEG, TU-Wien

2009-09-08 12IAEE European Conference, Vienna

Properties ofProperties ofSUSPLAN scenariosSUSPLAN scenarios

Long time perspective 2030-2050 There is a strong political will in Europe to promote

sustainable development and security of supply The share of RES in the European system will be large. We

shall analyse the need for infrastructures to integrate theRES

RES-E, RES-Heat and RES-Gas are considered SUSPLAN covers the stationary part of the system, not the

transport sector. However, electric vehicles and biofuelsmight influence the energy balance

Two main factors for calculating the share of RES are energydemand and volume of RES


Outline of analytical approachOutline of analytical approach

Estimate electricity prices in an integrated European electricitymarket as a common starting point for the analyses• Includes countries not directly analyzed in SUSPLAN• Includes non-RES technologies like nuclear and CCS

Electricity market model of EuropeElectricity market model of Europe A fully integrated European

electricity market will be used as acommon reference between theSUSPLAN regions

Stochastic market model includingwind and hydro data

Includes non-RES technologieslike nuclear and CCS in the marketbalance

Includes also the regions andcountries NOT directly analyzed inSUSPLAN

Similar approach for gasinfrastructures?


Electricity market model (EMPS)Electricity market model (EMPS)


Hydro inflow in Norway 2030 (GWh/week)

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

1 10 19 28 37 46

0 percentile 25 percentile 50 percentile 75 percentile 100 percentile

0

100

200

300

1 10 19 28 37 46


Wind and solar in Norway 2030 (GWh/week)

StochasticStochasticrenewablerenewableresourcesresourcesin Europeanin Europeancountries...countries...


...results in...results invariablevariablemarket pricesmarket prices

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1 10 19 28 37 46


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1 10 19 28 37 46


Norway 2030 (€cent/kWh)

Austria 2030 (€cent/kWh)


Electricity flowElectricity flowAverage exchange from Norway to Sweden (2030)Average exchange from Norway to Sweden (2030)

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

1 1461 2921 4381 5841 7301

MWh/h

Hours




Calculate a plan for maximum deployment of RES in the 9 casestudies


GreenNet: Generation capacityGreenNet: Generation capacity(Norway)(Norway)


GreenNet: New wind projectsGreenNet: New wind projects(Norway)(Norway)


GreenNet: New capacity costGreenNet: New capacity cost(Wind, Norway)(Wind, Norway)





Analyze the need for regional infrastructures• Competition and complementarities between RES-E, RES-Gas and

RES-Heat, including end-use efficiency


Heat central

Boiler

DH Network

El load

El network

El source

Gas network

Gas source

Heat load

Tap water load

Heat source

Gas load

Aggregated area model in Aggregated area model in eTransporteTransportAggregated area loadsAggregated sources

Ref: www.sintef.no/etransport


Gas 1

Waste 2

Waste 3

CHP 1

CHP 2

CHP 3

Elspot

El market

Boiler

El loadEl network

Heat network

Heat load

Storage 3

Storage 2

Heat feed-in

Simple area model in Simple area model in eTransporteTransport

Ref: www.sintef.no/etransport


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

Hours

MWh/h

El load 2010

Heat load 2010

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

Hours

EUR/MWh

Elspot price 2010

Utility buyback price

Input: Load and price profilesInput: Load and price profiles


Rank and timing of investment alternativesRank and timing of investment alternatives

• Investment cost - resource, plant, storage and network

• Operational cost - fuel, fixed cost etc

• Environmental cost - emission penalties

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

1000

EU

RO CHP 2, El boiler (2010)

CHP 1 (2010)CHP 3, El boiler (2010)El boiler (2010)


0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

Hours

MWh/h

CHP heat

Boiler heat

Diurnal operation profilesDiurnal operation profiles

Heat production

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

Hours

MWh/h CHP electricity

Elspot purchase

Utility buyback

El prod. + purchase


Delayed commissioning of waste plantDelayed commissioning of waste plant

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

2010_to_2015 2015_to_2020 2020_to_2025

1000

EU

RO CHP 1

CHP 2, El boilerCHP 3, El boilerEl boiler

Gas 1

Waste 2

Waste 3

CHP 1

CHP 2

CHP 3

Elspot

El market

Boiler

El load

El network

Heat network

Heat load

Storage 3

Storage 2

Heat feed -in

Gas 1

Waste 2

Waste 3

CHP 1

CHP 2

CHP 3

Elspot

El market

Boiler

El load

El network

Heat network

Heat load

Storage 3

Storage 2

Heat feed -in

Gas 1

Waste 2

Waste 3

CHP 1

CHP 2

CHP 3

Elspot

El market

Boiler

El load

El network

Heat network

Heat load

Storage 3

Storage 2

Heat feed -in

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

1000

EU

RO CHP 1

CHP 2, El boilerCHP 3, El boilerEl boiler







Analyze the need for trans-national infrastructures• Detailed results from the 9 regions are correlated through the common

electricity market from Step 1• Correlation also with trans-national gas model


Connections between regional andConnections between regional andtrans-national scenario studiestrans-national scenario studies

4 STORYLINES/SCENARIOS

9

REGIONS

Regional scenario analysis:Regional output → Trans-nation input:

• RES penetration + RES/energy mix per region• (RES) export/import (firm/intermittent) per region• Infrastructure needs + costs per region• Prices per region

Trans-national scenario analysis:

Min. 4 Transnational scenarios


Connections between regional andConnections between regional andtrans-national scenario studiestrans-national scenario studies

Three important aspects in the regional – trans-nationaldimension of more efficient integration of RES into futureinfrastructures:

• Trans-national infrastructures can allow for exploitation of RESlocated far from consumption centres

• Trans-national infrastructures can reduce the problem ofintermittent RES

• Utilisation of RES in regions with large consumption can reduceneed for trans-national infrastructures

Electricity and gas networks considered in parallel









Verify and finalize the results• If necessary, new calculations to ensure consistency between regional

and trans-national level with electricity market as main reference


Summary of approachSummary of approach







Verify and finalize the results• If necessary, new calculations to ensure consistency between regional

and trans-national level with electricity market as main reference

A modelling approach for moreA modelling approach for moreefficient integration of renewableefficient integration of renewableenergy into future infrastrucutresenergy into future infrastrucutres

Bjørn H. Bakken, Michael M. BelsnesBjørn H. Bakken, Michael M. BelsnesSINTEF Energy ResearchSINTEF Energy Research

Hans AuerHans AuerEEG, TU-WienEEG, TU-Wien

ContactContact: [email protected]: [email protected]

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