Introduction to Scenario Strategy Development

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An introduction to VCI

Strategy

Innovation

Technical Challenges

Need + Idea + Implementation

Capabilities

Organization Design

Strategy Organization

Innovation

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Global and local clients focused on performance and growth

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The classical metaphor: A Turkey flock is fed for a 1000 days—every day the Turkey analyst confirms to its statistical department that the human race cares about Turkey welfare "with increased statistical significance". On the 1001st day, the turkeys have a surprise.

The Leveraged Market’s Meltdown Why naïve planning fails

Change is truly the only constant

Economic Change

•Trade liberalization •Deregulation

• Expansion of the global marketplace

Logistical Change

• Real-time planning • Intermodal freight

• Transport hub and spoke

Asia Europe

N. America Africa

S. America Australia

The strategic dilemma: we must plan for the future

Present 2 Years

Scenarios

“We can barely see the near future…” “What could

impact us in 5-10 years?

“Plan for it and leave space…”

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Markets, consumers,

products, logsitics

Globalization Technology

Technology Networks

We discount single point forecasts to deal with uncertainty

+10% -10%

Forecast Planning Planning for One future

Scenario Planning Planning for Multiple futures

Undermined by uncertainty Embraces uncertainty

Today’s knowns and uncertainties

Today’s knowns

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Case study: energy scenarios

Econ

om

ic Gro

wth

Environmental Constraints Dynamic Anti-Fossil

Blocs

Globalization

Access to the right resources & ability to develop faster than competition

Diversified Players and Mega Solos win

Decline in seaborne trade as local

solutions become strategic

High fragmentation with many new entrants in play

And work backwards to develop and value options

Identifying strategic options And applying rigorous option valuation

Then create a scenario based strategy

Hedge

Big bet

Invest now

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This often takes us in new directions

Brand Position

Stakeholder Management

Investment Decisions

Innovation

Scenario Strategy Business Model Design

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• Brand Positioning

• Brand and Product Architecture

• Brand Equity Management

• Brand Portfolio Management

• Living the Brand

Brand

Marketing Demand Driven Strategy

Innovation

• Messaging Architecture

• Marketing Activation

(In and Out of Store)

• Touchpoint Analysis

• Demand-Based Innovation Model

• Innovation Roadmapping

• Ideation & Prototyping

• Concept Development & Evaluation

• Customer Demand Landscape

• Demand-Based Segmentation

• Demand-Based Growth Platforms

Customer

Demand

Scenarios inform today’s go to market strategy

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• Life as a turkey is not a long one.

• Change is constant so companies need to think beyond straight line forecasts and predictions.

• Scenarios are an extremely useful way to think about the future.

• From scenarios we can understand our options – key is rigorous option analysis for strategy creation.

• Once the long term strategy has been designed this leads to ensuring the right:

– Business model.

– Brand position.

– Stakeholder management strategy.

– Investment Decisions.

– Innovation Potential.

Key takeaways

VCI New York Leadership

Gideon is a founding partner of Virtual Consulting International. Gideon started his consulting career as an internal consultant for Anglo American Corporation in the 1990s. From there he migrated to the U.S.A. and since 1994 has worked as a consultant focusing on strategic positioning and large scale change projects. His specialty is applying Scenario Planning to leverage competencies, optimize asset utilization and to structure appropriate growth strategies. He has been consistently and progressively dealing with business issues in a broad range of industries where he acts as a strategy specialist. His unique Scenario Planning process has become a benchmark for strategic planning and large scale change management. Most of his project include the development of growth options including new markets, managing risk and growth through acquisition.

Jeff is a Managing Director at Virtual Consulting International. He joined VCI out of Rio Tinto where he most recently led African business development efforts for the company and acted as a transaction / investment advisor. Prior to his work in Africa he developed marketing, product and corporate strategies for Rio Tinto Industrial Minerals. In addition to his experience in the mining industry, he has worked on strategy and change projects in a variety of industries including automotive, technology, medical and start-up companies. Recently he has worked on developing VCI’s innovation practice. He has experience in bringing strategic insight and problem solving skills to bare on complicated issues at companies of all sizes - from startups to the world’s largest companies. His experience covers product and corporate strategy development, new market entry, risk management and mergers and acquisitions

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Gideon Malherbe

Gideon@govci.com

+1 914 381 0000

One Depot Plaza

Mamaroneck, NY 10606

USA

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Jeff Loehr

jeff@govci.com

+1 206 450 8028

One Depot Plaza

Mamaroneck, NY 10606

USA