Foresight: Introduction to scenarios (AASW6 - Ghana)
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Transcript of Foresight: Introduction to scenarios (AASW6 - Ghana)
Introduction to scenarios
thinking and planning
By Katindi S. Njonjo
What are Scenarios
scenarios are stories about the future
scenarios take into cognisance past events and forces to determine how these have shaped the present.
This information is combined with thorough research/knowledge and acute intuitive insight to depict things that are ‘inescapable’, most important and uncertain, describing how these might evolve in the future.
Multiple
Paths
Current realities
(Mental maps)Many
futures,
different
truths
and
realities
Source: Adopted from Rafael Ramirez
Pa
st e
ven
ts &
forc
es s
ha
pin
g
the
pre
sen
t
Time
Bring the future back into the present
(back-casting) to strategize
Lea
rnin
g j
ou
rney
wit
h h
igh
lev
el
an
aly
sis
Overall Scenarios framework
The present
Alternative Future Images
wps.cn/moban
Why do we do Scenarios
The world is very complex, fast changing, unpredictable and full of uncertainty
Most of us look to political leaders, civil society, religious leaders etc to provide comfort and certainty
Because many have not grasped the complexities of our time they continue to use their former skills, expertise and old knowledge to solve new, more complex problems
No one admits that they have no adequate answers. Each new failure on their part to deliver on their promises increases mistrust, lowers legitimacy and increases indifference
wps.cn/moban
Johari window
Company Logo
The Iceberg Analogy
Events
Patters of
behavior
Structure of the
system, causal
relationships, driving
forces, assumptions
Increasing
the ability
to
influence
and learn
Adopted from Senge (1990)
Why scenarios
Human beings keep looking for certainty
So we keep looking for a 3
However, the world is not liner and static.
It is fast changing, unpredictable and full of uncertainty
America will always be ruled by a white president!
What if blacks
outnumber us and
one day America is
ruled by a black!
What if the next
president is a
woman!
America will
always be ruled
by a white
American
What if?!
*&%$@*?
Scenarios as the art of re-perceiving
Vickers triangle... When do we do scenarios
Strategizing
scenarios
Instrumenta
l judgment
(=‘actions”)
Value
judgment
(=‘Values”)
Reality
judgment
(= ‘Facts’)
Ability to
do
something
about it
Norm creating
scenarios
Value
judgment
(=
‘values’)
Reality
judgment
(= ‘Facts’)
Instrument
al judgment
(=‘actions”)
Evaluating
the reality
Sense-making
scenarios
Reality
judgment
(= ‘Facts’)
Value
judgment
(=‘Values”)
Instrumental
judgment
(=‘actions”)
Assessing
the facts
Sense-making / uncertainty Projects
• These are
scenarios that
help look for
ways to survive
in a world that
one does not
control
• They describe a
range of
uncertainties
• Good for
exploring
organizational
survival
Surfacing assumptio
ns
Deepening
causal links
Re-framing
and sensitizin
g
‘seeing’ and
anticipating
Source: Scenario-Based Strategy in Practice: A Framework, Louis van der Merwe
Nature
of e
co
no
my
Umbrella
state
New
state
Homestead
economy
Modernized
economy
Flying
Geese
of state
KATIBA
AVENUE
EL NINO
ROAD
MAENDELE
O
STREET
Inequality
Passive
participation
Active
participation
Equality
. .
..
Go
ver
na
nce
population
Tsunami scenario
Pond scenario
Water fall scenario
Ocean Scenario
Norm Creating Projects
Involving stakeholders & challenging group thinking
Increasing future orientation and team building
Language creation, establishing common ground and culture change
Source: Scenario-Based Strategy in Practice: A Framework, Louis van der Merwe
VISION
Is a settlement
negotiated?
Ignorance
is blissNO Non –representative government,
non-negotiated resolution not
sustainable.
Is the transition rapid
& decisive? NO
Transition slow
and indecisive
NOAre the government
policies sustainable?
Flight of the
Flamingo
Ostrich
Lame
duck
Inclusive
democracy
& growth?
Transition rapid but government pursues
unsustainable, populist agenda
Government’s policies are
sustainable; the country takes a path
of inclusive democracy and growth
The Mont Fleur
Scenarios
Source: Luis Jimenez – senior VP & chief strategy officer, Pitney Bowe, 2005
Strategizing Projects
• Discovering options
• Inventing options
• Re-defining possible/impossible distinctions
• Building confidence to act
• Mapping options
• Testing options
• Engaging others
Source: Scenario-Based Strategy in Practice: A Framework, Louis van der
Merwe
Present
The
‘Official’
Future
What scenarios are not: Forecasts!
Source: Adopted from Schwartz (1991)
Forecasting
Scenarios contests the planning cycle
Top managementcomes up with 3-5year plans
They communicatethe vision toinvestors,journalists,partners etc
Budgets are drawnup , negotiated andrenegotiated
Analyze Fo
rmu
late
Implement
Mo
nit
or
1 year
Scenarios help you think about the future in other ways beyond budgeting and projections
or forecasting
By the
time this
happens
This is
outdated
Success in the future depends not on the study of the future but on the future
success of decisions taken today…
Angela Wilkinson, Oxford University
Thank You