Amy Snover, PhDClimate Impacts Group

Center for Science in the Earth System

University of Washington

Integrated Integrated AssessmentAssessment

Methods and approachIllustrative examplesFuture directions

What is IA?What is IA?

... an interdisciplinary process of combining, interpreting, and communicating knowledge from diverse scientific disciplines in such a way that the whole cause-effect chain of a problem can be evaluated from a synoptic perspective with two characteristics:

(1)(1) it should have added value compared to a single disciplinary oriented assessment;

(2)(2) it should provide useful information to decision makers.

(Rotmans and Dowlatabadi 1998)

Characteristics of CIG’s IACharacteristics of CIG’s IA

• vertical• spatial• interdisciplinary

• horizontal• temporal• intermural

Requires research and synthesis.

Papers on approaches to integrated assessment: Snover et al. 2003; Gamble et al. 2003; Rhythms of Change – Chs. 2 & 11.

Methods: Integrated Methods: Integrated ResearchResearch

1. Understand the naturalnatural systemsystempredictability, uncertainty

2. Understand the managed systemmanaged system the nature and consequences of human choices and activities

3. Understand the institutional contextinstitutional context of these systems processes, laws, constraints, decision calendars

1-3. Work with regional stakeholdersstakeholders

First vertical, then horizontal assessment

Climate dynamics

Impacts on natural systems

Impacts on human systems

Human response capabilities

Vertical IntegrationVertical Integration

e.g., Miles et al. 2000

Vertical Assessment Vertical Assessment Integrated assessment of climate impacts on the Columbia River basin Miles et al. 2000

Value of climate forecasts for Columbia basin hydropower production Hamlet et al. 2001, Huppert et al. 2001

Implications of climate change for PNW urban water resources Palmer and Hahn 2002

Analyses of the institutional context of regional water resources management and potential use of climate forecasts in management Callahan et al. 1999, Gray 1999

Transboundary Issues in the Columbia River Basin Hamlet 2003

Fisheries Management Applications Mantua and Francis 2003

Climate Change, Carbon, and Forestry Innes et al. 2004

Climate Impacts on PNW Resources Rhythms of Change, Chs. 6-9

Outreach: Sectoral Workshops

ENSO PDO

Streamflow

Snow

Coho

Mote et al. 2003

Horizontal Assessment Horizontal Assessment

• Compare results across sectors

• Synthesize results across region Mote et al. 1999a,b, 2003; Parson et al. 2000; Peterson et al., in prep.; National Assessment; Rhythms of Change (esp. Chs. 10-11); Snover et al. 2003

Potential Impacts of Climate Change

TeachingTeaching

Graduate Education• ATMS 585A/ENVIR 585A/ESS 585A/SMA 585A: Climate

Impacts on the Pacific Northwest• SMA 501: Marine Affairs Practice (Integrated Assessment

applied to marine policy problems)• PBAF 595/ENVIR 500A: The Role of Science in

Environmental Decisions• PBAF 598H: Decision-Making in the Face of Uncertainty:

Practitioner Views on Environmental Resource Management Challenges

• ESC 512A: Consequences of Climate Change and Climate Variability for PNW Forests

• Oregon State University: Global Climate Change Science and Policy

International Workshops on Regional Integrated Climate Impacts Assessment

• Lucca, Italy – September 2002• Grainau, Germany – June/July 2004• Cairns, Australia – 2006

To the FutureTo the Future

Objective: To develop a capability to answer questions from policymakers concerning impacts and policies at the different time/space scales at which climate, natural ecosystems, and human social systems interact.

Strategic Questions:

1. What are the critical interactions among resources (and resource management) that will shape regional impacts of climate variability and change?

2. What are the net impacts of climate variability on the region and what are the likely impacts of climate change, combined with regional trends in population growth and technological development? What are the costs of these impacts?

3. What are the greatest uncertainties in quantifying the effects of climate variability and change on ecosystems and human social systems in the region? Which uncertainties are most crucial for improving predictions and/or resource management?

4. How could cross-sectoral management improve adaptive capacity by exploiting the critical interactions across sectors and resources?

Requires increasing vertical and horizontal integration.

New Directions in Horizontal New Directions in Horizontal IntegrationIntegration

• Physical Template• Integrated

Watershed Analysis

Response to stakeholder demand for watershed level information

Top: Mt. Rainier (Marli Miller, Univ. Oregon)Bottom: Dungeness National Wildlife Refuge (Albert Copley, OK Univ. Archives)

Physical TemplatePhysical Template• GIS-based “picture” of the

PNW

• Method of integrating information about climate impacts with information about the ecological, regulatory, and socioeconomic environments in which they occur

• Tool for visualization, querying, information delivery, and spatial analysis

• Available to CSES (to support internal integration and fine-scale policy analysis) and to stakeholders (to support planning for adaptation)

Physical TemplatePhysical Template

1. Enhance stakeholders’ familiarity with the role of climate in managed resources– Map past and future patterns of PNW hydroclimatic

conditions– Designed in consultation with regional planners &

decision makers

2. Provide targeted interpretive products, e.g.,

– Highlight areas of high/low sensitivity to climate change

– Map hydrologically vulnerable watersheds

Integrated Integrated Watershed Watershed AnalysisAnalysis

Responding to stakeholder demand for information applicable to real-world watershed planning issues.

Mt Baker, WA

Photo: Chris Keane American Geological Institute

Human activities (fishing)

Freshwater habitat (water quality, quantity

& timing)

Estuarine habitat (water quality, mixing

processes)Ocean habitat

Climate change (altered water cycle)

Human activities (resource & land use)

Human activities (aquaculture, development)

Climate change (sea level rise & ocean mixing)

Health & Viability of PNW salmon

Climate change

Integrated Watershed Integrated Watershed AnalysisAnalysis

Forest HydrologyFocus on sediment loading of streams

Salmon LifecycleRelationship between habitats and salmon success

Coastal ManagementEffective institutions for integrated management

Estuarine EcologyClimate impacts on estuarine conditions

OutputsOutputs• Simulation models linking

climate-hydrology-land/water use-forest ecology-water quality-aquatic ecosystems – Explore the impacts of climate

variability, climate change, and human activities on these linked resources

– Identify and evaluate alternative management responses

• Information in support of climate sensitive decisions

• Ultimately … a “virtual NW” simulation model that will allow stakeholders, scientists, and decision makers to explore the impacts of policy choices in the face of climate change and population growth scenarios