IntroductionIntroduction

Integrated Assessment

Conceptual Models

Core Conceptual ModelCore Conceptual Model

Humans Nature

Conceptual approach to Conceptual approach to assessmentassessment

Integrated assessment of regional climate impacts:

The study of how climate, natural resources, and human socio-economic systems affect each other

What is IA?What is IA?

... an interdisciplinary process of combining, interpreting, and communicating knowledge from diverse scientific disciplines in such a way that the whole cause-effect chain of a problem can be evaluated from a synoptic perspective with two characteristics:

(1)(1) it should have added value compared to a single disciplinary oriented assessment;

(2)(2) it should provide useful information to decision makers.

(Rotmans and Dowlatabadi 1998)

Characteristics of CIG’s IACharacteristics of CIG’s IA

• spatial• interdisciplinary• vertical

• temporal• intermural• horizontal

Requires research and synthesis.

Papers on approaches to integrated assessment: Snover et al. 2003; Gamble et al. 2003; Rhythms of Change – Chs. 2 & 10.

Climate dynamics

Impacts on natural systems

Impacts on human systems

Human response capabilities

Vertical IntegrationVertical Integration

Methods: Integrated Methods: Integrated ResearchResearch

1. Understand the naturalnatural systemsystempredictability, uncertainty

2. Understand the managed systemmanaged system the nature and consequences of human choices and activities

3. Understand the institutional contextinstitutional context of these systems processes, laws, constraints, decision calendars

1-3. Work with regional stakeholdersstakeholders

First vertical, then horizontal assessment

Climate dynamics

Impacts on natural systems

Impacts on human systems

Human response capabilities

Examples (for one sector)

El Niño, or drought

Reduced snowpack, low streamflow, few fish, severe erosion, many forest fires

Water “crisis,” crop failures, lousy fishing, property damage, loss of timber

Lawsuits, water markets, government bailouts, infrastruture projects, new legislation

Tools for Characterizing the Tools for Characterizing the Natural/Managed SystemNatural/Managed System

Models

– process-based, quantitative

– empirical

– conceptual

The Institutional ContextThe Institutional Context

Institutions: formalized actions underlying human social activity, including standards of behavior, formal decision rules and decision-making procedures, and grants of authority to prescribe policy.

The institutional context creates the “rules” that shape social practices relevant to the system under examination.

Tools for characterizing the Tools for characterizing the institutional contextinstitutional context

Mapping institutional frameworks

• Identify players• Characterize laws, treaties,

rules and constraints• Determine interactions• Analyze individual

institutions

Methods: interviews, institutional analysis

Pulwarty & Redmond 1997

Example: Columbia basin operating periods

Tools for characterizing the Tools for characterizing the institutional contextinstitutional context

Eliciting decision calendars• When/how are decisions made? • Where is climate information relevant to decisions? Method = interviews, analysis of decision processes

1. Fixed period (Aug-Dec)Assume the worst about spring inflow

2. Variable period (Jan-Jul)Use snowpack measurements to estimate spring inflow

Tools for characterizing the Tools for characterizing the institutional contextinstitutional context

Involving stakeholders– A salient assessment

requires active two-way communication

– Human dimensions research relies on stakeholders’ knowledge

– Provides a means of disseminating results

Putting in Practice:• water workshops• interviews• general outreach• policy-maker

workshops

e.g., Miles et al. 2000

Vertical Assessment Vertical Assessment Integrated assessment of climate impacts on the Columbia River basin Miles et al. 2000

Value of climate forecasts for Columbia basin hydropower production Hamlet et al. 2001, Huppert et al. 2001

Implications of climate change for PNW urban water resources Palmer and Hahn 2002

Analyses of the institutional context of regional water resources management and potential use of climate forecasts in management Callahan et al. 1999, Gray 1999

Transboundary Issues in the Columbia River Basin Hamlet 2003

Fisheries Management Applications Mantua and Francis 2003

Climate Change, Carbon, and Forestry Innes et al. 2004

Climate Impacts on PNW Resources Rhythms of Change, Chs. 6-9

Outreach: Sectoral Workshops

ENSO PDO

Streamflow

Snow

Coho

Mote et al. 2003

Horizontal Assessment Horizontal Assessment

• Compare results across sectors

• Synthesize results across region

Potential Impacts of Climate Change

Horizontal Assessment Horizontal Assessment

More Difficult: weave the vertical assessments together into a fully integrated horizontal assessment

• forests and hydrology -> forest hydrology

• forests, hydrology, salmon, coastal erosion -> integrated coastal watershed management

• return to the core questions of sensitivity, adaptability & vulnerability

Goals and methods

• Overarching Goal: to understand and evaluate the role of climate in our lives

• Answer the questions of sensitivity/vulnerability/adaptability using this model as our guide

• Need to go beyond traditional reductionist approaches

Economy

Legal system (law & policy)

Nature

An alternative conceptual An alternative conceptual model: McEvoy’s sustainable model: McEvoy’s sustainable fisheryfishery

Using the Kaje method for Using the Kaje method for conceptual mappingconceptual mapping