INSURANCE SECTOR OUTLOOK ON EXPECTED · PDF fileLondon Lissabon Madrid Mailand ... Great...

INSURANCE SECTOR OUTLOOK ON EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF CLIMATE RELATED COSTSDEVELOPMENT OF CLIMATE RELATED COSTS

17 N b 2009 K l hPetra Löw17 November 2009, Karlsruhe

Agenda

Geo Risks Research Department and NatCatSERVICE

Trend analyes about natural catastrophesTrend analyes about natural catastrophes

Estimation for overall and insured losses

Marine business and weather events

© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at November 2009

Munich Re international

Munich RE• Founded 1880• Largest Reinsurer worldwide• Largest Reinsurer worldwide• Reinsurance Premium Income 22 bn EuroL di I f t l h d• Leading Insurer of natural hazards


Munich Re international

Atlan taChicagoColumbusHartfordKansas CityMontreal

HongkongKalkuttaMontreal

New YorkPhiladelphiaPrincetonSan FranciscoTorontoVancouver

KalkuttaKuala LumpurMumbaiPekingSchanghaiSeoulSingapurTaipehT ki

MünchenAthenGenfLondonLissabonMadridMailandMalta TokioMoskauParisWarschau

AccraJ h b

Malta

Zürich

BogotáBuenos AiresCaracasMexikoSantiago de ChileSão Paulo

AucklandMelbournePerthSydney

JohannesburgKapstadtNairobiPort Louis


Main tasks and responsibilities of GEO/CCC

Coordination and steering of all activities and projects in the „Strategic C t Topic“ climate change

Central contact for all questions on climate change, both external and internal

Corporate Climate Centre1

Screening of science in respect to new findings and trendsInitiiation of research cooperations Assessment and forwarding of new findings to CU

GEO Research 2

Maintenance and marketing of the world‘s largest NatCat-DatabasePerform analyses (temporal trends, regional, peril specific)Maintenance of a download center in the internet

NatCatSERVICE3

Editing of Topics GEO and special publicationsGEO appearance in Intra- and InternetPresentations, Media contacts

Communication 4Presentations, Media contacts

Maintenance of the archive on natural perils Paper archive: countires, topics (350 shelf meters) Geo-Archives5Electronic archive: new scientific publications , media reports …


NatCatSERVICE

Geo Risks Research Department


NatCatSERVICE

Natural catastrophes 2009W ldWorldmap

2009 850 t l t t hGeophysical events(E th k t i l i ti )

Significant natural catastrophes (selection)

Great natural catastrophes: 2009 t t th i t “G t t l

2009: 850 natural catastrophes (Earthquakes, tsunami, volcanic eruption)Meteorological events(Storm)Hydrological events(Flood mass movement)2009 no event met the requirement “Great natural

catastrophe”(Flood, mass movement)Climatological events(Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire)

© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at January 2010

NatCatSERVICE

Number of data sets

Year Number of data setsYear Number of data sets

0079 - 999 30

1000 - 1499 200

1500 1899 1 0001500 - 1899 1 000

1900 - 1949 1 00026,000 data sets

1950 - 1979 2 120

1980 2008 19 500

Each year about 800 events are documented.

1980 - 2008 19 500

y


NatCatSERVICE

Definition - Breakdown into catastrophe categories

Catastrophe class Overall losses and/or f t litifatalities

Loss profile 1980s* 1990s* 2000 – 2008*

0 Natural event No property damage - - - none

1 Small-scale loss event Small-scale property damage

- - - 1-9

2 Moderate loss event Moderate property and structural damage

- - - > 10

3 Severe catastrophe Severe property,infrastructure and structural damage

US$ >25m US$ > 40m US$ > 50m > 20

4 Major catastrophe Major property, US$ > 85m US$ > 160m US$ > 200m > 1004 Major catastrophe Major property, infrastructure and structural damage

US$ 85m US$ 160m US$ 200m 100

5 Devastating catastrophe

Devastating losses within the affected

US$ > 275m US$ > 400m US$ > 500m > 500p

region

6 Great naturalcatastrophe „GREAT disaster“

Region’s ability to help itself clearly overtaxed, interregional/international assistance necessary,thousands of fatalities and/or hundreds of thousands homeless, substantial economic losses (UN definition). Insured losses reach exceptional orders of magnitude.

* Losses adjusted to the decade average.© 2009 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at November 2009

NatCatSERVICE

Definition „Great natural catastrophes“

(In keeping with United Nations definition criteria)

The affected region's ability to help itself is distinctly overtaxed

Interregional or international assistance necessary

Thousands are killed

Hundreds of thousands are made homelessHundreds of thousands are made homeless

Substantial economic losses

Considerable insured losses


NatCatSERVICE

Great natural catastrophes 1950 – 2009N b f t ith t dNumber of events with trend

16

12

14

umbe

r

8

10

Nu

4

6

2

4

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Climatological events(Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire)

Hydrological events(Flood, mass movement)

Meteorological events(Storm)

Geophysical events(Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption)


NatCatSERVICE

Great natural catastrophes 1950 – 2009O ll d i d l ith t dOverall and insured losses with trend

200

220

160

180

200

S$bn

100

120

140

US

60

80

100

20

40

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Overall losses (in 2009 values) Insured losses (in 2009 values)

Trend insured lossesTrend overall losses


NatCatSERVICE

Global natural catastrophes 2009P t di t ib ti f i d l ti tPercentage distribution of insured losses per continent

60%

28%7%

5%

Continent Number of events Fatalities Overall losses Insured lossesUS$ m US $ m

Africa 78 730 375 -

America 312 865 22.000 12.000

Asia 300 7.980 17.000 1.500

© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at February 2010

Australia/Oceania 76 770 2.070 950

Europe 129 940 12.500 6.000

NatCatSERVICE

Entry details: example Hurrican Ike

Affected lines of business

Affected people

Affected infrastructure

Affected buildings

Number of deaths

Event description


NatCatSERVICE

Example: Hurrican Ike

30/o09/2008

Overall losses

Insured losses

Munich Re shareAdditional loss information


NatCatSERVICE

Loss estimation & updatesDevelopment of insured losses: example EQ Northride 1994

Development of insured losses

p p

11 2

15.3

11.712.514

16

$ bn

7.2 7.49.0

11.210.4

8

10

12

US

$

2.8

4.55.5

2

4

6

0

2

eb. 9

4

Apr.

94

une

94

ug. 9

4

ep. 9

4

Oct

. 94

an. 9

5

rch

95

May

95

uly

95

Apr.

98

Fe A Ju Au Se O Ja

Mar M J A

Sources: Insurance Information Institute from ISO/PCS reports, MR NatCatSERVICE


NatCatSERVICE

Access&User

Clients

Analysts, investorsStaff

ScienceGeneral public NatCatSERVICE

Political committees


Floods in Europe August 2002

LossesLossesFatalities: >100Overall losses:

A t i 3 0 M d €Insured losses:

- Austria: 3,0 Mrd. €- Czech Rep.: 3,0 Mrd. €- Germany: 11,8 Mrd. €

- Austria: 0,4 Mrd. €- Czech Rep.: 1,2 Mrd. €

Germany: 1 8 Mrd €Germany: 11,8 Mrd. €- Europe: 21,2 Mrd. €

- Germany: 1,8 Mrd. €- Europe: 3,4 Mrd. €


Tranport system stopped because of low water level

Transport-business interrupted

Normaly after 14 days:Normaly after 14 days:Cargo traffic: 3.000 € per dayP t ffi 8 000 25 000 € dPassenger traffic: 8.000 – 25.000 € per day

Insured losses 2003: 40m €Insured losses 2003: 40m €Munich Re losses 2003: 3.5m €


Climate change and the hurricane activity atthe Atlantic Ocean

25Hurricane and Tropical Storm

20

Hurricane and Tropical StormHurricaneHurricane (SS3,4,5)

15

hl

Warm-phase

Kalt-phase

Warm-phase

Averageb f

Warm-phase

Kalt-phase

10

Anz

a number ofstrong hurricaneper year

52,6/Jahr

3,8/Jahr

per year(SS 3-5)

1 5/J h01850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

,1,5/Jahr1,2/Jahr1,5/Jahr

Jahr



Klimaveränderungen und

Transportversicherung



H i I S t 2004Hurricane Ivan Sept. 2004:150 Oil platforms and 10.000 miles ofpipeline were affected.p p

US$ 2 5 – 3bn insured loses at

Klimaveränderungen und

Transportversicherung

US$ 2,5 – 3bn insured loses atOffshore Marine/Energy.


Thank you very much !Petra LöwPetra Löw

GEO/CCC1 – NatCatSERVICEGEO/CCC1 NatCatSERVICETel. 3759


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