Institutional Sales · 2019-02-12 · Institutional Sales Introduction Welcome to the Q3 2015...
Transcript of Institutional Sales · 2019-02-12 · Institutional Sales Introduction Welcome to the Q3 2015...
a u s t r a l i a
Institutional Sales
National Investment UpdateQ3 2015
Institutional Sales Contents
ADELAIDE 10
BRISBANE 6&7
MELBOURNE 8
CANBERRA 11
SYDNEY 4&5
PERTH 9
ASIAN MARKETS 12
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Institutional Sales Introduction
Welcome to the Q3 2015 edition of Knight Frank’s national Institutional Sales newsletter.Institutional sales markets across Australia continue to perform well, with a record amount of stock now on the market nationally during the final quarter of 2015.
The question on people’s mind is: with so much property coming onto the market, will there be enough buyers? The answer is that there is substantial depth to the buying market for properties showing appropriate value – those properties that are well priced, and make sense to the market. An ongoing high level of demand for investment stock continues to come from both offshore and local buyers.
A record volume of stock – approx. AUD 10 billion – is available during the final quarter of 2015. Previously, the biggest fourth quarter on record was for Q4 2014 with AUD 5.92 billion transacted.
Importantly, offshore buying activity remains at peak levels – despite the Chinese stock market correction – while new sources of capital inflow into Australia continue to emerge from places such as the US, Japan and Taiwan, with offshore investors taking advantage of the lower Australian dollar and Australian property yields, which remain high by global standards.
Asian investment into Australia is expected to continue to flow for the foreseeable future. Knight Frank is well positioned, with our Asian Markets team delivering great results. Dominic Ong, aka “The Dominator”, continues to secure unconditional contracts in the second round process with strong pricing. Examples of these transactions include success at 309 George Street, Sydney; 140 Arthur Street, North Sydney; 20 Berry Street, North Sydney and 166 Epping Road, Lane Cove West.
Knight Frank continues to expand our institutional sales team, with the most recent key strategic hire being Martin O’Sullivan as Head of Institutional Sales for Victoria.
I hope you enjoy our latest edition of the Institutional Sales newsletter. If you have any questions regarding Australia’s sales markets or general queries about the national commercial property market, please don’t hesitate to call either myself or one of our national team members.
Kind regards,
James ParryHead of Institutional Sales, AustraliaCapital Markets
Properties on or expected to come to market across Australia during Q4 2015
Property Approximate Pricing (AUD)
Property Estimated Price (AUD)
Brookfield Portfolio, NSW/VIC/WA $2,000,000,000+ 161 Collins Street, Melbourne $250,000,000
Charter Hall Group (CHOT and CPIF assets ) $700,000,000+ Westralia Square, 141 St Georges Terrace, Perth $240,000,000
SA Motor Accident Commission Portfolio $600,000,000+ Forrest Centre, 219 & 221 St Georges Terrace, Perth $225,000,000
Mill Green Complex, Perth $400,000,000+ 200 Bourke Place, Melbourne (43%) $200,000,000
Seymour Porfolio, QLD TBA 100 Arthur Street, North Sydney $200,000,000
420 George Street, Sydney (office - 75%) $320,000,000+ Westpac Building, Adelaide $185,000,000
1 Woolworths Way, Bella Vista $310,000,000+ 30 Convention Centre, Place, Melbourne $163,000,000
Valad Property Group Portfolio, Sydney TBA 41 George Street, Brisbane $140,000,000
GMG portfolio Macquarie Park, North Ryde $250,000,000+ 151 Castlereagh Street, Sydney $140,000,000
Primewest office portfolio - QLD, VIC, NSW & WA $250,000,000+ 45 Francis Street, Northbridge, Perth $139,000,000
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Institutional Sales Case study
White Bay Power Station28 Robert Street, Rozelle
Active Campaign
Price: Request for Proposal, closing February 2016
Vendor: UrbanGrowthNSW
Background
UrbanGrowthNSW has appointed Knight Frank as sole Agent in the divestment of this landmark development site. This is a prominent waterfront holding, which was decommissioned in 1983 and has not been utilised since. The nature of the site campaign will attract global attention, as well as a high level of public scrutiny. The willingness of the NSW Government to entrust a campaign of this importance to Knight Frank, on a sole agency basis, is testament to our integrity, professionalism and ability to achieve the best result for our clients.
The Campaign
The property is being taken to market via an international Request for Proposal (RFP) campaign, seeking response from suitably qualified parties with the capability and foresight to develop the expansive site in line with the government’s vision. The RFP campaign commenced 30th October 2015 and will close 25 February 2016. An Evaluation Period of potential purchasers will run between February to April 2016, with short listed proponents expected to be announced May 2016.
The Property
The White Bay Power Station sits on approximately 10 hectares of waterfront land adjacent to the Sydney Harbour and within two kilometers of the CBD. This is a prominent and well known site in Sydney’s inner-west, with excellent exposure to the Anzac Bridge. The site is targeted to deliver a substantial amount of developable area, including a targeted 100,000sqm of commercial floor space allocated across technology, education, health, energy and creative sectors. This is a trophy site, and forms a significant part of the wider NSW Government’s Urban Regeneration plan in the area.
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Top Sales Transactions (over $30m and since Jan 2015)
Address Sale Date Vendor Purchaser Sale Price WALE Yield Sales Rate ($/sqmNLA)
155 Clarence Street Aug-15 St Hilliers Eureka for Union Real Estate
$124,070,000 5.0 years 6.1% $9,925
4-6 Bligh Street Jul-15 Cromwell Fortius $68,000,000 2.9 years 7.5% $6,825
Space 207, Pacific Highway, St Leonards, NSW
Jul-15 PrimeWest Funds/Valad (50:50 Ownership)
Altis Property Partners $168,550,000 4.2 years 6.8% $8,447
20 Berry Street, North Sydney, NSW Jul-15 Private (Onshore) Private (Offshore) $59,000,000 5.4 years 7.3% $6,067
2-6 Cavill Avenue, Ashfield, NSW Aug-15 EG Holdings Pty Ltd Barana Group Pty Ltd $47,000,000 1.7 years 5.2% $4,426
Market Facts & Rumours
1. A number of prime transactions are under negotiation, which will solidify premium yields at sub-five per cent.
2. Macquarie Park yields have achieved new record levels, with 78 Waterloo Road achieving a yield of 6.3%
3. Non-core CBD markets such as Hurstville, Strathfield, Burwood, Pennant Hills, Epping and Frenchs Forest are seeing increased buying interest from investors, with increased stock withdrawal for residential.
4. With the $1bn + Northern Beaches Hospital due to open in 2018, opportunities in Frenchs Forest and Belrose are emerging.
1. A record volume of stock – approx. AUD 9 billion – is expected to come to the market during the final quarter of 2015. Previously, the biggest fourth quarter on record was for Q4 2014 with AUD 1.68 billion of stock on the market.
2. Offshore buying activity remains at peak levels, notwithstanding the Chinese stock exchange correction.
3. New sources of capital are emerging on a monthly basis (from the US, Japan, Taiwan and others), who are taking advantage of the lower and more favourable AUD.
4. Yields continue their downward trend, with expectations they will remain flat for the foreseeable future.
5. Non-CBD yields are looking generous when compared with the CBD, with offshore buyers now actively pursuing these markets.
Institutional Sales Overview
Institutional Sales Sydney – Q3 2015
Key Statistics
Vacancy (Total)
Incentives (Prime)
Yields (Prime)
Yields (Secondary) Net Supply#
CBD
6.3% 30.0% 5.7% 6.8% 142,070
Non-CBD*
8.2% 27.0% 7.1% 7.9% 48,672
* Non-CBD includes Parramatta, North Sydney, Chatswood, St Leonards and Macquarie Park # Net Supply is the forecast over the next 12 monthsNB. Arrows are indicative of short term forecasts – supply arrows are relative to prior period
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Institutional Sales Case study
The Brisbane Portfolio: Prime Office + Car Park Portfolio
Active Campaign
Price: TBC
Vendor: Seymour Group
Background
Seymour Group has appointed Knight Frank as Joint Agents to carry out the divestment of three landmark inner city assets. Offering outstanding investment and development attributes, the portfolio is attracting a high level of interest from international and domestic groups. Renowned for his ongoing development success, Kevin Seymour is planning to retire and has entrusted Knight Frank to divest the assets that are too large for the family portfolio.
The Campaign
The three exceptional inner city properties are currently being marketed via an international Expression of Interest (EOI) campaign, available individually or together as a portfolio. These truly rare assets present the flexibility for an astute investor or developer to benefit from a secure and diversified income profile with the potential to develop immediately or into the future. The EOI campaign commenced on the 15th of October 2015 and will close on the 2nd of December 2015.
The Portfolio
The Brisbane Portfolio presents three prime investment opportunities consisting of a landmark, fully leased CBD office tower investment, and two standalone car parking investments, each with strong underlying investment fundamentals. Positioned in the core of the Brisbane CBD and Fortitude Valley, the assets deliver flexibility and a portfolio WALE in excess of 5 years (by income), high occupancy of 98.8% underpinned by exceptional blue chip covenants, and the opportunity to harness a high quality diversified income stream and significant development upside. Opportunities to acquire a portfolio of this scale, quality, diversity, and flexibility are extremely rare. Combined, The Brisbane Portfolio will offer investors a unique opportunity to acquire three diverse assets in one of the world’s fastest growing mature cities.
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Top Sales Transactions (over $20m and since Jan 2015)
Address Sale Date Vendor Purchaser Sale Price WALE Yield Sales Rate ($/sqmGBA)
100 Wickham Street, Fortitude Valley Sept–15 Fortius funds Management
Keystone $50,000,000 2 yrs 13.09% $3,816
Waterfront Place, Brisbane Jun–15 Stockland & Future Fund
DEXUS $592,000,000 4.50 yrs 6.95% $9,958
313 Adelaide Street, Brisbane Oct–15 Cornerstone Properties
Deutche Bank
$125,000,000 4.0 yrs 7.25% $8,900
Market Facts & Rumours
Institutional Sales Brisbane – Q3 2015
Institutional Sales Overview
1. The end of the year is expected to see a number of CBD divestments occur.
2. 313 Adelaide Street has sold for a strong price.
3. Knight Frank appointed to sell the 171 and 179 Elizabeth Street (1,830sqm opposite the Hilton Hotel).
4. Knight Frank appointed to sell 138 Mary Street (opposite Brisbane Sky Tower development).
5. Knight Frank appointed to sell 601 Coronation Drive, Toowong.
6. The Queensland State Government has awarded the Queens Wharf (Casino) project to Destination Brisbane Consortium - Echo Entertainment, Far East Consortium and Chow Tai Fook.
1. We are seeing continued domestic and offshore investor demand for core CBD investments.
2. There are limited core CBD office opportunities available for purchase.
3. The yield premium for Brisbane investments compared to Sydney and Melbourne is proving attractive for foreign investors.
4. Recent transactions indicate prime yields for core assets are achieving 6 to 6.5 per cent.
5. Increased opportunities on the market due to a further tightening of cap rates.
Key Statistics
Vacancy (Total)
Incentives (Prime)
Yields (Prime)
Yields (Secondary) Net Supply#
CBD
15.0% 37.0% 6.8% 8.7% 83,151
Non-CBD*
12.6% 34.0% 7.3% 8.6% -3,725
* Non-CBD includes Brisbane Fringe (e.g. Newstead, Fortitude Valley, South Brisbane etc) # Net Supply is the forecast over the next 12 monthsNB. Arrows are indicative of short term forecasts – supply arrows are relative to prior period
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Top Sales Transactions (over $30m and since Jan 2015)
Address Sale Date Vendor Purchaser Sale Price WALE Yield Sales Rate ($/sqmNLA)
425 Collins Street, Melbourne Sep-15 Halim Group AMP (WPAF) $39,000,000 2.60 yrs 5.58% $7,236
913 Whitehorse Road, Box Hill Sep-15 Cromwell Offshore Institution $156,000,000 13.80 yrs 6.00% $7,823
South Wharf Tower, Melbourne Sep-15 DEKA $155,000,000 4.20 yrs 6.75% $7,454
114 William Street, Melbourne Aug-15 KYKO CorVal (Straits Real Estate)
$125,000,000 2.40 yrs 6.62% $5,945
222 Exhibition Street, Melbourne Aug-15 AMP LaSalle Investment Management
$235,000,000 3.20 yrs $7,758
^ Initial passing yield.
Market Facts & Rumours
1. Interim Planning Controls will create a two-tier market. Proposed office and residential towers with existing permits or applications already lodged are now worth significantly more.
2. The pending sale of Southern Cross is likely to again re-rate yields across the CBD.
3. Knight Frank is forecasting effective rental growth of 7.6 per cent over the next five years.
1. Healthy tenant demand is underpinning unprecedented levels of investor appetite for core CBD assets.
2. Leasing markets are being driven by enquiry from smaller tenants and the migration of occupiers from fringe locations into the CBD.
3. Incentives are anticipated to be eroded during the remainder of 2015.
4. No new supply until the end of 2016 will see vacancy rates continue to trend downwards.
5. Investment demand remains strong from all sectors including offshore and domestic institutions.
6. Yield compression is evident with the recent sales of 114 William Street, 222 Exhibition Street and 460 Lonsdale Street.
Institutional Sales Melbourne – Q3 2015
Institutional Sales Overview
Key Statistics
Vacancy (Total)
Incentives (Prime)
Yields (Prime)
Yields (Secondary) Net Supply#
CBD
8.1% 30.0% 5.8% 6.9% 29,144
Non-CBD*
9.0% 28.0% 7.0% 7.6% -64,516
* Non-CBD includes St Kilda Road and Southbank # Net Supply is the forecast over the next 12 monthsNB. Arrows are indicative of short term forecasts – supply arrows are relative to prior period
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Top Sales Transactions (over $15m and since Jan 2015)
Address Sale Date Vendor Purchaser Sale Price WALE Yield Sales Rate ($/sqmGBA)
59 Albany Highway, Perth Feb–15 Finbar Sim Lian Group $72,800,000 6.6 yrs 7.83% $5,682
AFP Building, Culquhoun Rd, Airport, Perth
Mar–15 Mezanine Financier Pindan Capital $18,407,693 14.0 yrs 7.8% $5,293
ATO Building, 45 Francis Street, Northbridge
Sep–15 Deka Australia Warrington PG $101,000,000 6.2 yrs 10.6% $4,588
Market Facts & Rumours
1. Rio Tinto has extended their lease at Central Park until June 2030 for over 27,000sqm.
2. AMP did not exercise their first and last rights for purchasing Exchange Tower with an off-shore group in exclusive due diligence.
1. Various eastern states funds are looking at value-add office investments.
2. There is continued demand coming from offshore investors and high net worth private individuals.
3. We have seen an increased supply of office buildings for sale during the third quarter of 2015.
4. The ICWA Portfolio is into second round with a local group, off-shore and eastern states parties in the running.
5. There is increased demand from off-shore residential developers looking for buildings to convert to residential.
6. WA Government is set to continue with the asset sell-off including the Western Power head office and various development sites in the CBD.
Institutional Sales Overview
Institutional Sales perth – Q3 2015
Key Statistics
Vacancy (Total)
Incentives (Prime)
Yields (Prime)
Yields (Secondary) Net Supply#
CBD
16.6% 45.0% 7.5% 8.5% 119,556
Non-CBD*
11.0% 30.0% 8.3% 9.0% 0
* Non-CBD includes West Perth # Net Supply is the forecast over the next 12 monthsNB. Arrows are indicative of short term forecasts – supply arrows are relative to prior period
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Top Sales Transactions (over $30m and since Jan 2015)
Address Sale Date Vendor Purchaser Sale Price WALE Yield Sales Rate ($/sqmGBA)
81 Flinders Street, Adelaide Feb–15 Norelco Local Syndicator $42,000,000 4.6 yrs 8.50% $12,371
60 Wakefield Street, Adelaide Mar–15 State Government Ascot Capital $37,750,000 TBC TBC TBC
Market Facts & Rumours
1. Re-development of Law Courts has been terminated.
2. Transaction levels for the remainder of 2015 looking like they will far exceed previous years.
3. Rundle Place, value of circa AUD 380m, is potentially for sale and would be the largest transaction in many years.
1. Stamp duty on commercial property transactions will be phased out over three years from 1 July 2016.
2. Adelaide is back on the radar for major institutions and interstate buyers.
3. Several new potential entrants to the market are currently circling.
4. Myer Centre sold to Starhill Group from Singapore for $288m – another vote of confidence for the Adelaide market.
5. There is potentially $350m between three assets to come to market pre-Christmas.
6. The SA Government precinct on Victoria Square is currently in DD for over $200m.
Institutional Sales Adelaide – Q3 2015
Institutional Sales Overview
Key Statistics
Vacancy (Total)
Incentives (Prime)
Yields (Prime)
Yields (Secondary) Net Supply#
CBD
13.5% 24.0% 7.9% 9.0% 32,231
Non–CBD*
8.0% 17.0% 7.9% 8.7% 0
* Non-CBD includes Adelaide Fringe # Net Supply is the forecast over the next 12 monthsNB. Arrows are indicative of short term forecasts – supply arrows are relative to prior period
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Address Sale Date Vendor Purchaser Sale Price WALE Yield Sales Rate ($/sqmGBA)
20 Allara Street, Civic May–15 Lend Lease Morris Property Group $20,500,000 0.4 yrs 12.74% $1,469
60 Marcus Clarke Street City Apr–15 Mirvac Centuria $49,060,000 2.1 yrs 8.7% $4,020
30 Morisset Street, Queanbeyan Feb–15 LaSalle Sandran $22,300,000 9.8 yrs 10.4% $3,176
44 Sydney Avenue, Forrest Dec–14 360 Capital Quintessential Equities $32,000,000 1.3 yrs 11.8% $3,207
Top Sales Transactions (over $20m and since Jan 2015)
Market Facts & Rumours
1. Discussions about the government removing the Lease Variation Charge system (LVC) has resulted in increased interest in secondary assets.
2. Two additional major assets are likely to be sold by the end of the year and will contribute to market indicators.
3. When these assets exchange they are anticipated to highlight positive selling conditions for vendors in the current market.
1. Canberra CBD continues to represent good value to the investor, relative to other capital cities, due to its value-add secondary assets.
2. Given the underlying fundamentals, Canberra remains a counter-cyclical investment proposition, with most commenting that the market has reached the bottom and is poised for growth.
3. The recent purchase of 64 Allara Street by Cromwell, one of Canberra’s biggest landlords, demonstrates their ongoing commitment to investment in the local market.
4. Several major assets are currently on the market in Canberra, including 255 London Circuit and 134 Reed Street, Greenway. These are likely to sell before Christmas and will indicate where the prime market is moving towards.
5. Buyer interest for long-leased Commonwealth Government assets is now tracking at a circa six per cent yield, with some offers even sharper for selected assets.
6. Canberra remains a low-traded market with only five major sales completed in 2015. We anticipate 2016 to feature a number of large asset sales as owners capitalise on the current investment demand.
Institutional Sales Overview
Institutional Sales Canberra – Q3 2015
Key Statistics
Vacancy (Total)
Incentives^ (Prime)
Yields^ (Prime)
Yields^ (Secondary) Net Supply#
CBD (Civic)
14.0% 21.0% 7.5% 9.7% -10,000
Non–Civic*
13.7% 21.0% 8.0% 10.5% -4,073
* Non-Civic includes all sub–markets excluding Civic # Net Supply is the forecast over the next 12 months ^ only includes Parlimentary Precinct (Barton, Parkes etc) and Town Centres (Tuggernong, Belconnen etc)NB. Arrows are indicative of short term forecasts – supply arrows are relative to prior period
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Institutional Sales Asian Markets – Q3 2015
1. Australia continues to witness solid demand from Asian investors. Prices remain strong and we have a limited supply of quality stock on the market. We anticipate that this will continue for the foreseeable future.
2. There is increasing evidence that we are moving into a favourable market for income-producing assets, with the office sector increasingly attractive for Asian-based investors. Over the past several years, Chinese investors have been looking at development sites in Australia. This is now evolving, with a lot more activity visible in the office investment market over the past 12 months.
3. A key reason for this evolution is that the investment market from Asia into Australia is becoming more mature. Development sites are great long-term investments which can take years to reach full potential, while office investments create instant cash flow.
4. Recent examples of transactions by Asian investors into Australia’s office market includes the sale of 175 Liverpool Street to Hui Wing Mau for AUD 390 million; the sale of 309 George Street for AUD 112 million to a private Hong Kong-based investment group; the purchase of 73
Miller Street in North Sydney by China’s Fosun for AUD 116.5 million; Yuhu Group’s purchase of 20 Berry Street for AUD 59 million and the sale of 140 Arthur Street, North Sydney to HK Realway for AUD 58 million.
5. Moving forward, we anticipate that Asian investors will begin to expand their interests into other major Australian cities, including Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth.
6. Within China, economic growth is at approximately seven per cent which is reasonable, however holds room for improvement. Similarly, the Chinese share market is still fluctuating, creating some cautiousness for high net worth individual investors.
7. Australia’s foreign exchange rate remains at 30 per cent lower in comparison with 2-3 years ago against USD and Chinese RMB. This is a big plus for foreign investors who see investment into Australia as having a significant discount.
8. Population growth, including immigration from China, will lead to increased long-term capital inflow into Australia.
Institutional Sales Overview from our Asian Desk
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Institutional Sales current listings – Q3 2015
300 Queen Street, Brisbane
NLA 19,364 sqm Passing Income $14,202,633 WALE 4.41 years
601 Coronation Drive, Toowong
NLA 7,222 sqm Passing Income $3,681,160 WALE 5.2 years
138 Mary Street, Brisbane
NLA 1,143 sqm Passing Income $609,193 WALE 2.4 years
The North Shore Portfolio, Sydney
NLA 49,505 sqm Passing Income $19,211,157 WALE 4.6 years
25 Bligh Street, Sydney
NLA 15,250 sqm Passing Income $10,986,831 WALE 2.32 years
White Bay Power Station, Sydney
Total site area circa 10 ha. Target 100,000sqm commercial NLA, plus circa 4.5 ha of development land.
30 Flinders Street, Adelaide
NLA 13,835 sqm Passing Income $5,244,909 WALE 6 years
11-19 Grenfell Street, Adelaide
NLA 10,788 sqm Passing Income $4,200,000 WALE 2.7 years
91 King William Street, Adelaide
NLA 31,678 sqm Passing Income $13,660,000 WALE 4.5 years
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