INSIGHTS - Aston Barclay...FLEET PRICES END 2020 £1,387 HIGHER THAN 2019 UNSOLD AFV VOLUMES RISE...

FLEET PRICES END 2020 £1,387 HIGHER THAN 2019

UNSOLD AFV VOLUMES RISE DUE TO INFLATED USED PRICES

AVERAGE DIESEL PRICES RISE £1,024 TO £9,070 IN 2020

USED VAN PRICES RISE BY 66.3% IN JUST 12 MONTHS

USED MARKET REPORT Q4/2020INSIGHTS

Q4 used market commentary2021 Outlook

2020 ended with more of a seasonal finish to the year and increased number of cars being sold in December than prior years after the lockdown period of November.

Dealers looking for stock over the Christmas period contributed to the success of two sales over Xmas for Zenith and The Car Buying Group which saw conversion rates of mid 90s and healthy prices.

Late and Low prices continued to rise hitting the £17,000 level for the first ever time due to stock being very thin on the ground while fleet prices fell slightly during the quarter. However, at £11,186 fleet prices were still £1,213 higher than in Q1 and the second highest on record, showing how the market has moved during 2020.

AFV prices rose again to £14,208 but continued to be out of kilter with equivalent petrol and diesel models which is impacting conversion rates, and vendors are being left with unsold stock which suggests the guides need to re-evaluate prices in Q1 2020.

The Young and Budget dealer part exchange sector saw prices rise during Q4 with demand high in both areas. With dealers closed at the end of December a shortage of stock started to occur which forced prices up in what was the consumer sweet spot of between £8-10,000, while the Budget sector continues to see stock sold for £1,200.

LCV prices say saw another massive rise in Q4 to £7,608 which remarkably is a gain of £2,685 since Q1 2020. Double cab pick-ups also rose again to a record level of £11,211.

We have seen demand fall back during early January as dealer sales volumes have been impacted by the third lockdown. But with the volume of part exchanges coming into the market impacted then we believe prices will remain strong during Q1 due to stock shortages. This is likely to continue until we see the new 71-plate change in March feed more stock into the market.

We will see used fleet sales volumes reduce in Q1 but once again do not see prices being too badly impacted as so many of the leasing providers continue to report record levels of contract extensions which will compromise stock levels. It may even be late in 2021 before we see the fleet sector volumes stabilise on the back of all the contract extensions experienced since lockdown 1.0 in March 2020.

Late and low prices will continue as rental companies have completed their fleet re-sizing exercises so stock will remain in very short supply. Some companies have been calling back used van stock heading for auction as this sector is extremely busy and new vehicle supply is still not back to normal. Based on demand and restricted supply used van prices will continue to rise during 2021.

Unsold AFV stock volumes are running at between 20-40% for some fleet vendors in 2021 which would normally run at 5% which reinforces our concerns for some months that the guides have this stock overpriced. We encourage them to revisit these prices during Q1, following signs that consumers cannot justify any longer the extra investment in a used hybrid or EV.

Martin PotterMD – Customer

WELCOME FROM MARTIN POTTER, MD – CUSTOMER

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Source SMMT www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data

Mike Hawes, SMMT Chief Executive, said: “2020 will be seen as a ‘lost year’ for Automotive, with the sector under pandemic-enforced shutdown for much of the year and uncertainty over future trading conditions taking their toll. However, with the rollout of vaccines and clarity over our new relationship with the EU, we must make 2021 a year of recovery. With

manufacturers bringing record numbers of electrified vehicles to market over the coming months, we will work with government to encourage drivers to make the switch, while promoting investment in our globally-renowned manufacturing base – recharging the market, industry and economy.”

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OVERALL MARKET TREND

LATE AND LOW MARKET PROFILE (12-24 months)

23,000

22,500

22,000

21,500

21,000

20,500

20,000

19,500

19,000

18,500

18,000

17,500

17,000

16,500

16,000

15,500

15,000

14,500

14,000

13,500

13,000

12,500

12,000

23

22.5

22

21.5

21

20.5

20

19.5

19

18.5

18

17.5

17

16.5

16

15.5

15

AGEMILEAGE

AVERAGE PRICE AVERAGE MILEAGE AVERAGE AGE

Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020

£13,347

£14,457£14,243

£15,129£15,261

£16,383

£17,019

£14,344£14,026

£13,200£13,116

£13,947

£15,589

£15,158£15,248

£14,738

• Prices rose by 3.8% (£636) in Q4 as supply levels fell again.

• Prices look set to remain high throughout 2021 as rental companies keep fleet levels at optimal levels.

• Sector prices rose by an extraordinary 12.5% (£1,890) during 2020.

• During that time average age reduced from 20-16 months and average mileage reduced from 20,000 miles to 13,000 which helped increase prices alongside low stock levels.

SUMMARY

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43.0

42.8

42.6

42.4

42.2

42.0

41.8

41.6

41.4

41.2

41.0

40.8

40.6

40.4

40.2

40.0

39.8

39.6

39.4

57,000

56,000

55,000

54,000

53,000

52,000

51,000

50,000

49,000

48,000

47,000

46,000

45,000

44,000

43,000

42,000

41,000

40,000

39,000

38,000

37,000

36,000

AGEMILEAGE

FLEET MARKET PROFILE (24-60 months)


£9,173£9,111

£8,916

£9,396

£9,198

£9,960 £10,009

£9,521

£9,233

£9,036

£9,799

£9,973

£10,938

£11,653

£11,186

£10,086


• Prices fell by 4% (£467) during the quarter as demand was compromised by various lockdown trading restrictions.

• Fleet prices ended 2020 £1,387 higher than 2019 which reinforces how the market has changed in just 12 months.

• Average age fell from 43 to 40 months and not surprisingly miles fell by from 50,000 to 39,000 miles on average.

SUMMARY

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OVERALL MARKET FUEL TYPES

HYBRID/ELECTRIC DIESEL PETROL

15,000

14,000

13,000

12,000

11,000

10,000

9,000

8,000

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0

£

Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020Q1 2020

£13

,616

£8,156

£3,9

61

£13

,558

£8,8

11£4,137

£13

,073

£8,7

51

£4,3

25

£12

,714

£8,8

18£4,6

51

£13

,736

£7,5

01

£4,2

06

£13

,636

£7,5

11£4,3

06

£14

,012

£13

,375

£14

,275

£14

,027

£14

,208

£13

,332

£7,3

90

£8,0

46

£9,9

99

£9,9

33

£9,0

70

£7,6

13

£4,2

13

£4,4

70

£6,9

48

£6,5

06

£6,152

£4,9

10

£10

,602

£8,2

57

£3,6

80

£11,4

81

£8,169

£3,6

44

£12

,577

£8,4

34

£4,0

91

£11,3

65

£8,7

00

£4,0

05

• AFV prices rose to £14,308 but sales volumes were impacted by these high prices.

• AFV prices rose by 6.2% (£833) in 2020.

• Diesel prices rose from £8,046 in Q4 2019 to £9,070 in 2020, a rise of £1,024.

• Petrol prices also rose during from Q4 2019 to Q4 2020 by 37.6%.

SUMMARY

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73,000

72,500

72,000

71,500

71,000

70,500

70,000

69,500

69,000

68,500

68,000

67,500

67,000

66,500

66,000

65,500

65,000

64,500

64,000

63,500

63,000

62,500

62,000

61,500

61,000

60,500

60,000

70

69.5

69.0

68.5

68.0

67.5

67.0

66.5

66.0

65.5

65.0

64.5

64.0

63.5

63.0

AGEMILEAGE


£5,309

£5,718

£5,854£5,940 £5,924

£6,371 £6,316

£5,917

£5,670

£6,153

£6,390

£7,708

£6,971

£7,227

£5,051

£5,574


DEALER MARKET PROFILE - YOUNG PART EXCHANGES (55-78 months)

• Prices ended 2020 at £7,227 the second highest on record and £1,174 higher (17.4%) than Q4 2019.

• Part exchanges at this age and price have been in huge demand in 2020 to hit the consumer retail sweet spot of £8-10,000.

SUMMARY

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86,000

85,500

85,000

84,500

84,000

83,500

83,000

82,500

82,000

81,500

81,000

80,500

80,000

79,500

79,000

78,500

78,000

77,500

77,000

76,500

76,000

75,500

75,000

105.0

104.8

104.6

104.4

104.2

104.0

103.8

103.6

103.4

103.2

103.0

102.8

102.6

102.4

102.2

102.0

101.8

101.6

101.4

101.2

101.0

100.8

100.6Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020

AGEMILEAGE

£3,408

£3,183

£3,481£3,416

£3,004

£3,144£3,072

£2,810

£2,611

£2,324

£2,576

£3,129

£3,554

£4,021

£3,700£3,633

DEALER MARKET PROFILE - OLD PART EXCHANGES (79-126 months)

• This sector ended 2020 at £3,633, £225 higher than Q4 2019.

SUMMARY

8



163.0

162.5

162.0

161.5

161.0

160.5

160.0

159.5

159.0

158.5

158.0

157.5

157.0

101,000

100,500

100,000

99,500

99,000

98,500

98,000

97,500

97,000

96,500

96,000

95,500

95,000

94,500

94,000

93,500

93,000

92,500

92,000

£811

£878

£956

£1,011

£1,084£1,102

£1,020

£1,123

£1,200

£1,380

£1,252

£1,313

£1,209 £1,221

£1,137

AGEMILEAGE

£1,050

DEALER MARKET PROFILE - BUDGET PART EXCHANGES (126+ months)

• This sector of the market continues to be in high demand as stock remains in short supply.

• Supply is likely to be further compromised once OEMs start to incentivise older car owners with scrappage deals.

• Prices finished 2020 at an average of £1,313 which was £190, a rise of 16.9% from Q4 2019.

SUMMARY

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VAN AND DOUBLE CAB PICK-UP MARKET PROFILES

DOUBLE CAB PICK UP

AVERAGE PRICE

£8,500

£8,000

£7,500

£7,000

£6,500

£6,000

£5,500

£5,000

£4,500

£4,000

£3,500

£3,000Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020

£4,923

£4,612

£4,323£4,533 £4,573

£5,949

£6,204

£7,608

VAN

AVERAGE PRICE

Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020

£9,644

£9,233

£9,757

£10,169

£10,657

£11,211

£8,678

£9,232

£12,000

£11,500

£11,000

£10,500

£10,000

£9,500

£9,000

£8,500

£8,000

£7,500

£7,000

£6,500

£6,000

PRICEPRICE

• Astonishingly LCV prices rose by £3,035 (66.3%) from Q4 2019 to Q4 2020 as used supply shortages, restricted new vehicle supply and huge demand drove the market to a new record high.

• Double-cab pick-ups also finished 2020 at the record price of £11,218, a rise of £1,978 (21.4%).

SUMMARY

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INSIGHTS - Aston Barclay...FLEET PRICES END 2020 £1,387 HIGHER THAN 2019 UNSOLD AFV VOLUMES RISE...

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