SEB report: Commodity prices to rise in 2011
Transcript of SEB report: Commodity prices to rise in 2011
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February 1, 2010
Bjarne Schieldrop(Chief Commodity Analyst) [email protected] +47 92 48 92 30Filip Petersson(Commodity Strategist) [email protected] +46 8 506 230 47
SEB Commodities MonthlyAt the mercy of the weather gods
=
General Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M In 2011 commodity prices are set to benefit from robust growth in
emerging markets and a continued recovery in OECD countriessupported by plentiful liquidity
We expect temporary set-backs as commodity volatilities are low,
speculative positions high and broad commodity indicesapproaching record highs
Energy Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M We raise our 2011 average Brent price forecast to $90/b on
improved global growth prospects, higher crude oil demandexpectations and OPEC passivity
Brent crude prices likely to weaken in Q1 as winter bull driversfade but should recover in Q2 on continued solid global growth
Geopolitical risk is elevated as long as the Egypt unrest continues Nordic power price risk is skewed to the upside unless heavy
precipitation arrives
Industrial Metals Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M Expecting new highs but mainly consolidation at the current high
price level during 2011 Industrial metals are highly sensitive to Chinese tightening efforts,
which are likely to cause several temporary set-backs in thesector over the year
Physical industrial metal ETPs is a likely bullish force in 2011 Expect demand weakness during the Chinese New Year holiday
Precious Metals Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M Receding European sovereign debt fear, potential future OECD
interest rate hikes and physical ETP outflows weigh on gold Strong Asian demand partly compensates for weak OECD
demand at the moment The current gold market weakness is likely to offer attractive long
term buying opportunities as e.g. the OECD sovereign debt loadremains alarmingly high, inflation is rising on the agenda andcentral banks refrain from selling more of their reserves
Agriculture Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M Sensitivity to weather related disturbances remains high as low
inventory levels, protectionism and hoarding dominates theagricultural markets
The La Nia phenomenon is forecasted to last well into the spring Improving crop prospects and fading weather related risk premia
are likely to put agricultural prices under pressure in H2-11 asconditions normalize
Arrows indicate the expected direction of the price change during the specified period.
THE NEXT COMMODITIES MONTHLY WILL BE PUBLISHED ON MARCH 8
N
UBS Bloomberg CMCI Sector Indices(price indices, weekly closing, January 2010 = 100)=
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
jan-10
feb-10
mar-10
apr-10
maj-10
jun-10
jul-10
aug-10
sep-10
okt-10
nov-10
dec-10
jan-11
Industrial Metals
Precious Metals
Energy
Agriculture
=Performance overview(MSCI World, UBS Bloomberg CMCI Price Indices)
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
Equities
Commodities
Energy
Industrial
metals
Precious
metals
Agriculture
YTD(%) MoM(%)
Winners & Losers last month(closing prices, %)=
-42
-38
-34
-30
-26
-22
-18
-14
-10
-6
-2
2
6
10
14
Power,Nordic
Silver
Gold
LeadZinc
Power,Cont.WTI
USNat.Gas
Steel
Copper
Aluminium
USGasoline
Soybeans
Palladium
Platinum
Coffe,Arabica
Corn
CO2(EUA)
Wheat
Brent
Sugar
USHeat.Oil
Nickel
CocoaTin
Cotton
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`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~==
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GENERAL=
t===~===OMNN==== I= = ~=K= q= = = = ~= == ~= = ~= = =
= ~K=q=lb`a= = = == == ~~= = = =K= _==~== =K=_=rp=~=b~==~= ~= = = ~= = = == ~= ~= = ~= K=j~==~=~==~=~====~====~~==W=`= ~= = ~= = ~= ~== X= br= ~= = ~=X= ~== ~= =rp= =~=~=K=`~=~==~==
~=~=~I===~I=== ~= = =~= ~~====~====~==~==`~=~====K=l~I= = ~= = == = = = =~===J==== ~= ~= = = =lb`a= K= eI= = J=~=====OMNNK==p= = = = k=r_p= _D== I= = `j`f= = = ~=
~= = ~= NMBK= f= = ~= =~~= = ~= = ~= ~====rp====pCm= RMM= = = = = == = = = =I==~= ~=~= ~=~= ~I= = ~= ~= ~=~= = = = g~~K= q= rpa= == = = = I== ~= QB= = = K= rpa=~= ~= ~=~= =~= ==~===b~==~=
= = ~= = = ~=~= = cu= = = =~I=~======OMNNK=q=sfu===~===OPB=~====k==~==~=NRKRB===g~~== = = = ~=I= = = = ~= g~~= =~====j=b~K==q=~===~=== = = ~= J= = =NTB=====k=====
g~~====~=~==i~=k~K=q=====NOB== === ~=~==
=~=~===~==~===k= e= ~= ~~= `== = = = = == ~~= =~= = = =
= ~= = = == ===~===OMMSJNM==~=~K= m= ~= = ~=~= = ~= === ====I=~~==~K=q= ~=~= =~==I==NOB===I=====~= = ~= =lb`a==K=q==~== ~= = I= ~= PBK=p=`= ~= = ~==~== = = = ~= = =
= = = ~= ~= =====K==_==~=~==~======OMNMI===PQB=~=POB= K= q= ~= = ~== ~= = = = i~= k~== =JOMNMK= i~=k~= ~== ~= = ~~= == I= = = ====~=~K=f=~=~=~= = ~= = = ~K= `=
~= ~= ~= = =~=~=~~===OMNNI=~==~==~~===~=I== ~= = ~= ~~=K= q= = ~= = = = == = g~~= J= =~=~==~==~=rp=== K=eI====NO====~=~==~= ~= = = ~= = lb`a== = = = = =K= t= = = =~=
======J==~~= = = J=~= K= q= = = = ~= =~===~=rp=~~=~==OMNMI=~=~==~==SB=~=~K=`= I= ==_= == = ONB= =OMNMK=t== = ==_===~===ANMML=~===~~=====K=c=OMNNI= = ~= ~= ~~= = = AVML== _= = ~= ~= == = = = ~= = =K= f~= ~= ~= = = =
==~= == ==~=~===K==
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ENERGY==
t=~= ~== OMNN= ~~=_==~==AURL==AVML====~= = I= = f~~=b=^=Efb^F=~=~==
= ~= = = ~= ~= = ~= == ~= ~= ~= ~= =lmb`==~===K=l===k~= ~= j~~~= ~= ~~= =~= ANMMLI= _= = ~= = == ~= = = = = = lmb == ~= = = = = ~=AVMLK= lmb = ~= = = ~=~= ATMJUMLK= t= = ~~====~===~=== = ~= = ~= == = = = ~= = ~K=
eI=lmb`=~=~=~=====~=====~==~== = = = ~= = ===~===K=t==_== = ~= = AVML= = nNJNN= ~=~~= = = =~= ~= = = = =K= f= ~I= = = ~~==`= = ~==== == = = ~= ~= ~= = = ==~====I== = = = = =~= = = = ~K=
p~= = = = == = ~= = = = ~= =~= = = = = ~=~I=~====~== ~K= kI= = = = =~= = _= = = = ~= ANMML===I====~====~==~=~==~= = = k= ^~= ~= =j=b~I=== ~=bK=t= = = = = = = =~= = nOJNN= = = = rp=
=~=~===~===~==K=t=~========~===== ~= = K= ^= ~= == = = ~= ~=== ~=I=KK= _= ~= tqfI= ~= ~= lmb`==~====~==== = = ~K= q= = ~====~=`=~== = = = ~========K=k=~=lmb`==~==== = ~= ~= = = =
p~=^~~==c~=OOK==
_= = ==k=~= = ==g~~I= _= = = NSBK= q= ~=~== = ~= ~~= ~= == = ~= = ~=
~= = ~= = rp= =I= = b~= = = =~=~=~=`==~=~~=== = ~K= f= = ~= ~=~=~=~=~======~~= = = = _= ~=tqf= = = lmb = = ATMJUML= ~K=q= = ~= = = =~= = `= = ~= ~== = = = = =~= = ~= = = === =~= ~====~=
OMMSJNM==~=~===~K=l==~=I=~==== = = = = K= ^= == = = g~~I= = = = =====~I=~===bI= = ~~= = = p= ~=~=====~=====~=~= ~= ~= = f~I= = =~= ANMML= ~~K= q= ~= =_=~=tqf=~==~=~== = = OMNM= = = = g~~= =~I= ~= = = = ~= ~~=
==`=El~~FI==== = tqfI= ~= ~~= ~= =b~= = = = = ^~=~K= f= ~I= ~= ~= ~~== = _I= = ~= =~~= ~= ~= = ~= =~=rp=K=`~===~=~= = = = kI= = = tqf= ~=_= = = ~=~=~~==I= = = = = = = = =tqf= = = ~= ~= ~I===~K==
Monthly global demand estimates= 2010
(mb/d)Revision
(kb/d)2011
(mb/d)Revision
(kb/d)IEA 87.70 +280 89.10 +360
EIA 86.60 +220 88.00 +240
OPEC 86.10 +160 87.30 +210
=d~= = ~= ~= = = =====~=====~=K=q=fb^====~=I==OMNM==~= UTKT=L= E= OUM= LF= ~= OMNN=~= UVKN=L= E= PSM= LFK= lmb`= = OMNM=
~= NSM= L= = ~= USKN= L= ~=OMNN= ONM= L= = ~= UTKP=L== =
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rp= b= f~= ^~= Ebf F== OMNM= ~= OOM=L= = ~=USKS=L=~=OMNN=OQM=L==~=UUKM=LK=q=fb^========~= = = = = ~=~=~==K=t=~=
~= = OKT= L= L= = OMNMI= ~= == = = = =~= =EUTKT= LFK= q= = ~= ~=~= = OMNN= = NKQ= LK= q~= = ===PMM=L==UUKN=L==a== == =~==lmb`==~= ORM= L= = OVKS= L= ~= =~~==~=~=====~===~= = K= `I= lmb`==~=~~===QKV=LK==
^= = = fb^I= lb`a= ===UKP===OTQO===k=ERUKT=~=FK=q=~=~===K= m~= ~~= = a=~= ~= ~~= K= p= =~= ~= = = SQ== ~= = = =k= = RS= = ~= ~= K= d~I=lb`a===~=~===== = ~= ~K= eI= ==~=~==~=~===~K=c==~=~~= ~I=rp= = = = =~= =a= == = =g~~I= = = = NVKN= = = ~=PQMKS=K=`~I==~==== ~= = = ~= ~K= l= = ~=I= ~= = ~= = TKS===NSRKT===~==== NVKV= = = OPMKN= K= rp= = ~=~= ~= = g~~= ~= =~===~K==q~= ~~= ENNMNOUFW= _= = ====~=J=K=f====~=ANMMLI=~====
=OMMU=SNKUB=c=~=I===~========~=~= ~= ~~L~K= m= = =j~=OMNM==~==a=J==~=AVMKOM=~== ==~== = =~=~~=~=AUQ=~======J~===AUMLK==
k=m
==k= = = ~= ~= ~== = ~= = ~= =
~= = ~K= m= = =~= = a= = = ~~= =
~= ~= =~= ~=~= ~~= = ~= ~= ~~K=a= ~==aI= ~= == ~= = = = ~K= e==~=~=~~====~==~=~===K=
q===~===g~~=~==~=~=~=~==~== `~= ~=k= v~= ~K= p== = k= = ~= == ~= ~= = K=`I= = = = ==~==~=K==q= = = = = a= = ~=bro= UNKSRLjt= EH= bro= OSKUTLjt= LFI== = = ~~= = = =~= ~= ~= = = NVVMK= p=
~= c~= = = = = ~=~~=bro=NMLjt=~===K= f= g~~= = ~= ~= ~=~= I= ~= ~= ~=~= p= ~= = ~= =~~K= q= g~~= = = = ~=bro=SVKSO=Ljt======p= ~= c~= I= = ~== = = = = = K= q=d~= = = ~= bro= RRKRRLjt= EH=bro= TKMOLjt=LF= =a=~= bro=RMKNPLjt==g~~K==q=~=~=~=~=~==a=== ~= = ~=== = ~= ~JK= nNJNN= = = PRB=LI==~=bro=UQKPMLjt==`~JNN== ONB= LI= = ~= bro= SOKMMLjtK=_= ~= ~= = ~= ~=K=f=g~~==~==~==~= = = ~= = ~= ~= == = = aK= m= ~=~= = = = ~= ~= ~===~~===~=== ~= K= t= = =
= ==nOJNN= ~= `~JNO== ==~=~==~=== K= c= = ~= ~= == = = ~= ~~== = ~K=nNJNN= = ~=bro= RMKRRLjt= ~= `~JNN= ~= bro=QSKPRLjt==g~~=PNK==
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CRUDE OIL=
Crude oil price(NYMEX/ICE, $/b, front month, weekly closing)=
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120130
140
150
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
NYMEXWTI
ICE Brent
=
US crude oil inventories(DOE, mb, weekly data)=
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
j f m a m j j a s o n d
2006-2010 avg.
2010
2011
=
OIL PRODUCTS=
Gasoline and heating oil prices(NYMEX, /gal, front month, weekly closing)=
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
NYMEXGasoline
NYMEXHeating oil
=
Gasoline and distillate inventories(DOE, mb, weekly data)=
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
j f m a m j j a s o n d
Gasoline 2006-2010 avg.
Gasoline 2011
Distillate fuel oil 2006-2010 avg.
Distillate fuel oil 2011
=
POWER=
Nordic power price(Nord Pool, /MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)=
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
=
Continental power price(EEX, /MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)=
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
===
`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~=
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CO2 NATURAL GAS=
EUA price(ECX ICE, /t, Dec. 11, weekly closing)
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
=
US natural gas prices(NYMEX, $/MMBtu, front month, weekly closing)=
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
==
FUTURES CURVES=WTI(NYMEX, $/b)=
84
8586
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
dec-13
mar-14
jun-14
sep-14
dec-14
mar-15
10-11-30
10-12-31
11-01-28
=
Brent(ICE, $/b)=
85
8687
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
dec-13
mar-14
jun-14
sep-14
dec-14
mar-15
10-11-30
10-12-31
11-01-28
==
Heating oil(NYMEX, /gal)=
228
232
236
240
244
248
252256
260
264
268
272
276
280
284
feb-11
maj-11
aug-11
nov-11
feb-12
maj-12
aug-12
nov-12
10-11-30
10-12-31
11-01-28
=
US natural gas(NYMEX, $/MMBtu)=
4,00
4,25
4,50
4,75
5,00
5,25
5,50
5,75
6,00
feb-11
jun-11
okt-11
feb-12
jun-12
okt-12
feb-13
jun-13
okt-13
feb-14
jun-14
okt-14
feb-15
10-11-30
10-12-31
11-01-28
===
`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~=
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=INDUSTRIAL METALS==
t= = ~= ~= = = == = ~= = ~= ~= ~=~= = OMNN= ~= = = = = `== = ~= = lb`a= =
K= eI= = OMMV= ~= OMNM= =~==J====I==~== == =~=~= ~==K=t======~=~==~==~===~=~== = K= q= = = ~= =~~=~====~=~=~= =`~= = == == = = ~= = ~======I==dam===VKUB=L==nQ=~=~==QKSB=L= = aK= f~= = =
= = = ~I= = ~== == ~= = = OMB= =~= = = = = ~=~I= = ~= ~= K= `~I=~= ~~= ~= =~========~= = K= f= = = ~=~=~==~=====~=~I=~=~==~=~==~==~=~=~== = K= eI= = = = =~= ~K= ^= = ~= = = == ~= = ~= = ~=
~=~=bqcK=q==~==~=OMNM=~=~===~=~~=~===OMNNK=f===I==`=k=v~=~====~==c~=====~=~=~=~=K=q===~= = ~= = =^~~= == = ~= = = = =~===K=l===~=J=== ~= ~= = = ~= == ~= ~= = ~= =~==~==~====j~K=
=f~= ~= = = = = === =a=~=g~~K=m==~===b=~==rp===I====~= = = = = = K= b=^~~= = ~= ~= = = ========~=~=~== ~= ~= = ~= ~=~K= `~= = ~= = =`~= a~= ~= = ~=~~= = == = ~= ~= = ~= = ~=~~= =~==K=e~= ~= = ~= = ~= == = = = ~= ~= =
_= = = ~= K=^= ~= I====~=~=~===~=====OMNN=~==~=~=~===~===~=====
K=p====kI==~=== = = = = ~= ~== EHONKOBFI= = = = EHNRKSBFI== EHNPKRBFI= = EHNNKNBF= ~= ~=EHNMKRBFK= `I= ~= =I=~==VKQBK==
LME prices and inventories m/m
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Aluminium
Copper
Nickel
Zinc
Lead Ti
n
Steel
Price (%) Inventories (%)
=`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~==
^
==^===rpa=OPMMJORNML==
a=~=g~~I====VKQB== ~= rpa= OQSSLK= e~= ~= =a= ~= ~= ==~= I=~= = = ~= = ~== = = g~~K= `~= ~~=~= ~= ~= = g~~=E= ~= PKUBFK= j= = = = = ijb=~== =~=~~==~====Jijb==ijb== ~= ~= ~= = ~= =K=^~~==~=~==~= ~= = I= =
=I=~==== ~= ~K= q~I= `= ~~== ~= ~= = = K=o= ~= = = = = =~= K= `= = ~====~=~=~==== = = ~= ~= ~=K= d~I= = = = =~= = = ~=~= = ~= == ~= = = = = ~== = = AOMMML= = = =~~= = K=t= = ~== ~=
=`==~=~==~=== ~= = = = = =~I= = = = = = rpa=
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PMMML= ~= AOMMML= = = = = = ~K=q~=~~=ENNMNOUFW=^=~== = = = = = ~= ~~= = ~=~= ~= = K= eI= = g~~==~=~== ~====~==OMMU= SNKUB= c= ~L~= = ~=
AORTULK=pJ======~~===~===~==~K=q==~=J==K=m===a=J===AOPTTL====~=~~=~=AOOQVLK==
`
==`= = = rpa= URVPJVTOUL= =a= ~= g~~I= = = =NPKRB= = ~= rpa= VRQVLK= q= = == = = = = ~=
= = a= ~= == = = = g~~K= `~=~~= I= ~= ~= =EQKUBFK=f=OMNN===~=~=== ~I= = ~=rpa= NMMMML= ~== == ~K=k= ~== === ~= OMNP= = = ~= ~======K=^==~== = = I= = =~= ~= ~= = ~= = == = = = = = ~~= ~== = ~= = = K=t~= = = `= k= v~=~= = = = =K= q~= ~~= ENNMNOUFW=p==~===g~~==~== = = RJ~= =~= ~==~====I==~=~~=~= K= ^= ~= = = ~= ~=AVRTVL===~=====~K==
k
==k= = = rpa= OPRMSJOSSMML= =a= ~= g~~I= = = =
NRKSB== ~=rpa= OSSMMLK= q==== = = ijb= = = == = ~= ~= ~= = g~~K= `~=~~=~= = =QKPBK=d~I= ==~==~===~== = = ~K= q= ~= =~~= = ~~K= m= = =~==rpa=ORMMML====^~~==~= == ~= ~= == ==EkmfF==K=m==`=~= = = = ====kmf===~=
~= = = = ~I= = ===~~==K=q===
== = =~==~~=====kK=q~=~~=ENNMNOUFW= k= = =~== = ~=~~= E= ~= AOOSVQLFK= ^= = = =g~~=====~===K=q==== ==OMNM=
~= = =AOTRVRLI= == = OMMTJMU=RMB=~===APMPORL==== ~K=m= ~= = = ~= ~~=~=======~K==
w
==w= = = rpa= ONRUJOQTNL= =a= ~= g~~I= = = =NNKNB= = ~= rpa= OPQOLK= q= = ~========= ijb= = = ~~= ~=
~= = aK= `~= ~~= == = = g~~= ~= MKQBK=w= ~== ~= = = = ~= =OMNN= = = = OMNO= ~= ~=====OMNPK=q==~=~== ~= = ~= = = ^~~== = = = = ~=======~==K=c=I======= = = ==rpa= OMMMLK= q== = = = = =~= = == = = kK= q~= ~~=ENNMNOUFW=w===~==~=~~===K=q=OMMVLNM=~=~==~=~====I====~===~==~=~===~======~=~==l= ~= = AOSPVLK= f= I= = OMMSJMU= RMB=~= = = AOUMVL= = = =~K=eI===~==J=c== ~= APOOPJPOOTLI= = = ~= =~= ~= ~= APTRPL= K= m= =ANMNV===~K==
p
==ijb=====rpa=RNPJRVOL==a==g~~I====RKQB== ~= rpa= RSRLK= q= = ~= =====`==~===`= === =OMNMK=q= ijb= = ~= = ~= ~= == = l= OMNM= ~= = =~I=====~=K=`==~= ~= ~= = = = =k= = = ~= ~== = `= = = ~=
~= = = ~= ~= =~=K=p=I==~==ijb==~===K=f=
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=====~==~==f~===~===== = = ^~~= = = ~=~= ~= = ~= = ~= =~~K=^==~= ==I==~====lb`a==
= ~= ==k=^~=eo`== ~=QQB= =k=NK=t=~== = ~= = ijb= ~= ~=`= = K= p= = == = = = K= f= = ~== = = = ^~~= = ~==~~K=f~====~====~====~==== K= c~I= = =lb`a===~====== =ijb=K= ijb= = ~= ====g~~=T=~=====
= = ~= = = I= =~I= k= ^~= eo`K= q= `=k= v~= ~= = ~= ijb= =~= = = = K= t= ~====ijb==~====~K=
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10/20
SEB Commodity Research
V
ALUMINIUM=
Aluminium price(LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing)=
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
2250
2500
2750
3000
3250
3500
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
=
Aluminium inventories(LME/COMEX/SHF, tonnes, weekly data)=
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
SHFE
COMEX
LME
==
COPPER=
Copper price(LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing)=
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
=
Copper inventories(LME/COMEX/SHF, tonnes, weekly data)
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
SHFE
COMEX
LME
=
NICKEL=
Nickel price(LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing)=
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
3500040000
45000
50000
55000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
=
Nickel inventories(LME, tonnes, weekly data)=
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
===
`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~=
-
8/7/2019 SEB report: Commodity prices to rise in 2011
11/20
SEB Commodity Research
NM
ZINC=
Zinc price(LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing)=
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
=
Zinc inventories(LME/SHF, tonnes, weekly data)=
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
1000000
1100000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
SHFE
LME
=
LEAD=Lead price(LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing)=
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
=
Lead inventories(LME, tonnes, weekly data)=
0
25000
50000
75000
100000
125000
150000
175000
200000
225000
250000
275000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
=
TIN=
Tin price(LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing)=
3000
6000
9000
12000
15000
18000
21000
24000
27000
30000
33000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
=
Tin inventories(LME, tonnes, weekly data)=
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
===
`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~=
-
8/7/2019 SEB report: Commodity prices to rise in 2011
12/20
SEB Commodity Research
NN
STEEL=
Steel price(LME Select, $/t, third month, weekly closing)=
250
275
300
325
350
375
400
425
450
475
500
525
550
575
600
625
650
jan-09
mar-09
maj-09
jul-09
sep-09
nov-09
jan-10
mar-10
maj-10
jul-10
sep-10
nov-10
jan-11
=
Steel inventories(LME, tonnes, weekly data)=
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
jul-08
sep-08
nov-08
jan-09
mar-09
maj-09
jul-09
sep-09
nov-09
jan-10
mar-10
maj-10
jul-10
sep-10
nov-10
jan-11
=
FUTURES CURVES=Aluminium(LME, $/t)=
2250
2275
2300
23252350
2375
2400
2425
2450
2475
2500
2525
2550
2575
2600
2625
2650
feb-11
maj-11
aug-11
nov-11
feb-12
maj-12
aug-12
nov-12
feb-13
maj-13
aug-13
nov-13
feb-14
maj-14
aug-14
nov-14
feb-15
10-11-30
10-12-31
11-01-28
=
Copper(LME, $/t)=
6900
7100
7300
7500
7700
7900
8100
8300
8500
8700
8900
9100
9300
9500
9700
9900
feb-11
maj-11
aug-11
nov-11
feb-12
maj-12
aug-12
nov-12
feb-13
maj-13
aug-13
nov-13
feb-14
maj-14
aug-14
nov-14
feb-15
10-11-30
10-12-31
11-01-28
==
Nickel(LME, $/t)=
21000
21500
22000
22500
23000
23500
2400024500
25000
25500
26000
26500
27000
feb-11
maj-11
aug-11
nov-11
feb-12
maj-12
aug-12
nov-12
feb-13
maj-13
aug-13
nov-13
feb-14
maj-14
aug-14
nov-14
feb-15
10-11-30
10-12-31
11-01-28
=
Zinc(LME, $/t)=
20752100212521502175220022252250227523002325
23502375240024252450247525002525
feb-11
maj-11
aug-11
nov-11
feb-12
maj-12
aug-12
nov-12
feb-13
maj-13
aug-13
nov-13
feb-14
maj-14
aug-14
nov-14
feb-15
10-11-30
10-12-31
11-01-28
===
`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~
-
8/7/2019 SEB report: Commodity prices to rise in 2011
13/20
SEB Commodity Research
NO
=PRECIOUS METALS==
q= = ~= = = ~= = = ~=K= t= = = ~=~==~=~=~==~====~==~=~===
=~==~==b~=== I= ~= = ~= = bqc== K= t~= ~= = =`=k=v~= ~==lb`a= =~=~==~~==~=K= q= = ~= == ~= ~~= ~= = =^~= ~= ~= lb`a= ~= ~I== ===== == = = KK= = b~== I= `= ~I= ~=~= = ~= ~= lb`a= ~I=
~~===~= K=f=`=~====I=====~=~I=~=~======~=~====I= = ~= = = = ~===~==~=~=K==f=a= ~= g~~= = = ~==~= = ~= = = ~~I= =~= ~= = I= ~= b~== = ~= ~= ~K= q=`ljbu====PKSB==ANPPRLK=l== ~= = = ~= = = PKVBK=m~=bqc==~=~==~= = = = = K= `== ~I= = = = ~= ~= =~= = ~= = = lb`aK=^=~===QKSB=L==a== RKNB= = kI= = = = = ==~~K=j=~===OMB== ~= = = = ~= ~I== ~= ~= = = ~===~=~==~=~=K= ^= = = = g~~I= = = ~== = = = = ~= rp=
nQ=dam=~==b~==~~K==^====mffdp==~=~===~=b~=~==~====b~=c~~=p~=c~=EbcpcF= = ~~= ~= = =~= =~K=f= ~I== =b= = ~= = = g~~I==~==~==~=b=K= ^= I= g~~= = OMB= = =bro= R= K= eI= = = = ~=~= = ~= ~= == =
==~~K=m~=~==== = ~= = ~= ~K= fI==~====mffdp===
~==~==~==~===~K= f= ~I= ~= ~= = == = = bcpc= = = ~====~==~I=~==
d~=~==K===m~==bqc==~=~==~=~~= RP= = = OMPU= = = ===kK=q~===~=~=~==~=~=~==K=l==~== = = ~= = =`ljbu= = = = ~= == = ~= ~==~=~=~=~=K==p= = == = ~= == g~~I= ~= ~= ~= ~= =
aK= eI= = `ljbu= = == = MKUB= =AOTKVRL= ~=~= = ~=g~~= K= ^= ~= bqc==~=~=~I==NTS= ==NQSMQ=I=rp===~==~========g~~K=p= `= = ~= ~= =K=p===~=~=== = = ~= ~= bqc= =~===~==K===q~=~~I==ENNMNOUFW=t=~=RJJ
RJJR==~==~=~==~=~= ~= = ~K= ^= = = =ANPORL==~=======OS= EJ~F= ~~= = g= OMMVK= ^= == = = ~= ~= = ~== ~=~= = = = = = OMMUJOMNN= =~I= ~= = = = ~= ~= ~~I= ~=~= = = ANOSPJNPMRL=~~K= m= ~==J~===~=ANPSMJNPSR=~=== = = ~= = = = =K==
Gold and selected currencies vs. USD
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
GOLD EUR JPY GBP SEK RUB
YTD (%) MoM(%)
=`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~==
-
8/7/2019 SEB report: Commodity prices to rise in 2011
14/20
SEB Commodity Research
NP
GOLD=
Gold price(COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)=
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
12001300
1400
1500
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
=
Gold to silver ratio(front month, weekly closing)=
44
48
52
56
60
64
68
72
76
80
84
88
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
==
SILVER PLATINUM / PALLADIUM=
Silver price(COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)=
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
=
Platinum and palladium prices(COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)=
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
300
550
800
1050
1300
1550
1800
2050
2300
Palladium(left axis)
Platinum(right axis)
==
FUTURES CURVES=
Gold(COMEX, $/ozt)=
1325
1350
1375
1400
1425
1450
1475
1500
1525
1550
1575
1600
1625
1650
feb-11
maj-11
aug-11
nov-11
feb-12
maj-12
aug-12
nov-12
feb-13
maj-13
aug-13
nov-13
feb-14
maj-14
aug-14
nov-14
feb-15
maj-15
aug-15
nov-15
feb-16
maj-16
10-11-30
10-12-31
11-01-28
=
Silver(COMEX, $/ozt)
27,0
27,5
28,0
28,5
29,0
29,5
30,0
30,5
31,0
31,5
32,0
mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
dec-13
mar-14
jun-14
sep-14
dec-14
mar-15
jun-15
sep-15
dec-15
10-11-30
10-12-31
11-01-28
===
`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~=
-
8/7/2019 SEB report: Commodity prices to rise in 2011
15/20
SEB Commodity Research
NQ
AGRICULTURE=
q= ~~= = ~= == = ~~= ~= ~=~= = i~= k~= ~=~= ~= = = = =
= = = k= e= K=a= = = = = = ~=~~= I= ~= == = = = ~=~K=t= ~= ~~= ~J~======~===~== nNJNN= ~=~= = =nOJNNI= = = = = = =~K= q= = ~~= ~====~==OMNN==~~==~=~= ~= ~= = ~== = = = =
= ~K= t= = == = = ~= ~= = = ~=~=====~==~=~~=K===q=~~= =~===a= ~= g~~= = = r_p=_= `j`f= = = = ~= =NTKPBK= `I= ~= ~= ~= ~= == = ~= = = =EHOUKQBF= = = = EHOOKNBF= =~=~==EHNPKNBFK=^==== = ~= = = = = I=~====i~=k~J~=~= ~= ~= ~= =~=k=^~====~= ~= = = ~= == = = ~~= K= p=~= = = = == = = ~= =~===~=~~=~=~~=~==~===K==
`
==`===RRRJSRVL==a=~=g~~I====OOKNB==~=SQQLK= ^= = = `cq`I= ~== = = = = ~= = == K= g~~= t= ^~=p=~=a~=b~=Et^pabF=== rp= a~= = ^= Erpa^F=====QKTM=== ~=UNSKMN= K= a= = ~= = ~== = = = = PKMM= = = NOTKMM=K= ^= ^~= = = == ~= = = = =
= ~K= k= ~= = rp=b~= m= ^= ~=
~=~= NRB= ~=== = =~===OMMN=~=OMMSI=~=~=bNR== = ~= = SMB= = = rp= ~= K=q~=~~= ENNMNOUFW=^=RJJP=~==
=K=l=I=~=~== EPJ~= = ~F= = ~~====~JR==~==~=~==OMMU=TSRL=K==
t~
==t~= = = TQMJURSL= =a= ~= g~~I= = = =OUKQB= = ~= UPRLK= ^= = =`cq I= ~= = = = ~== ~= ~= = = = =
= OMMVK= f= = g~~= t^pabI= =~==~==MKSV===~=SQRKUO=K= v~= = = = == NKOT= = = NTTKVV= = = = ==~=~==~J==~=~K= e= ~= ~= ~= =~==~~=~=~====~= ~~= == ==~=~====i~=k~=~=~=~== = ~= = ~K=q~= ~~= ENNMNOUFW= q= OMMULMV= RMB=~= = = ~= ~~= ~= ~=
~=~~==~==OMMU=_J~===VRPL=~==~=J=VUTJVVUL=c===~=~K=l=====~=~~I==~=SSMI====~==~K==
p~
==p~= = = \NOUOJNQOOL= =a= ~= g~~I= = = =NPKNB= = ~= NPVULK= ^= = =`cq`I= ~= = = = ~== ~= = = = K= f= =g~~= t^pabI= = ~= =~==OKOR===~=ORRKRP=K=a==~=I=~===== = NKUQ== = RUKOU=K=a= = =^~=~=~= ~= === ~= = = ~= _~~= ~=~= I= ~=~= = ==~K= q~= ~~= ENNMNOUFW= q== = ~= = ~= = =K=m==~==_J~==~=NQVML= = ~= = ~= = OMMU===NSSPLK=
-
8/7/2019 SEB report: Commodity prices to rise in 2011
16/20
NR
=
CORN=
Corn price(CBOT, /bu, front month, weekly closing)=
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
=
Corn year end inventories(USDA, yearly data updated monthly)=
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
mt
days of supply
==
WHEAT=
Wheat price(CBOT, /bu, front month, weekly closing)=
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
=
Wheat year end inventories(USDA, yearly data updated monthly)=
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
mt
days of supply
=
SOYBEANS=
Soybean price(CBOT, /bu, front month, weekly closing)=
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
=
Soybean year end inventories(USDA, yearly data updated monthly)=
20
40
60
80
100
120
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
mt
days of supply
===
`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~I=rpa =
-
8/7/2019 SEB report: Commodity prices to rise in 2011
17/20
NS
=
SUGAR COFFEE=
Sugar price(NYBOT, /lb, front month, weekly closing)=
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
=
Coffee price (Arabica)(NYBOT, /lb, front month, weekly closing)=
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
==
=FUTURES CURVES=
Corn(CBOT, /bu)=
470480490
500510520530540550560570580590600610620630640650660670
mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
10-11-30
10-12-31
11-01-28
=
Wheat(CBOT, /bu)=
640
660
680
700
720
740
760
780
800
820
840
860
880
900
920
940
mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
10-11-30
10-12-31
11-01-28
==
Soybeans(CBOT, /bu)=
1100
11201140
1160
1180
120012201240
12601280
1300
13201340
1360
1380
14001420
1440
mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
10-11-30
10-12-31
11-01-28
=
Sugar(CBOT, /lb)=
161718192021222324
2526272829303132333435
mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
10-11-30
10-12-31
11-01-28
===
`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~I=rpa =
-
8/7/2019 SEB report: Commodity prices to rise in 2011
18/20
NT
=
COMMODITY RELATED ECONOMIC INDICATORS==
EUROZONE Current Date Previous Date Next
Industrial production (%, YoY) 7,7 2010-11-30 7,1 2010-10-31 2011-02-14
Industrial production (%, MoM) 1,3 2010-11-30 0,8 2010-10-31 2011-02-14
Capacity utilization (%, sa) 80,0 2011-03-31 78,1 2010-12-31
Manufacturing PMI 56,9 2011-01-31 57,1 2010-12-31 2011-02-01Real GDP (%, YoY) 1,9 2010-09-30 2,0 2010-06-30 2011-02-15
Real GDP (%, QoQ, sa) 0,3 2010-09-30 1,0 2010-06-30 2011-02-15
CPI (%, YoY) 2,2 2010-12-31 1,9 2010-11-30 2011-02-28
CPI (%, MoM) 0,6 2010-12-31 0,1 2010-11-30 2011-02-28
Consumer confidence -11,2 2011-01-31 -11,0 2010-12-31 2011-02-17
USA
Industrial production (%, YoY) 5,9 2010-12-31 5,6 2010-11-30
Industrial production (%, MoM) 0,8 2010-12-31 0,3 2010-11-30 2011-02-16
Capacity utilization (%) 76,0 2010-12-31 75,4 2010-11-30 2011-02-16
Manufacturing PMI 58,5 2010-12-31 58,2 2010-11-30 2011-02-01
Real GDP (%, YoY) 2,8 2010-12-31 3,2 2010-09-30
Real GDP (%, QoQ, saar) 3,2 2010-12-31 2,6 2010-09-30 2011-02-25
CPI (%, MoM) 1,5 2010-12-31 1,1 2010-11-30 2011-02-17
CPI (%, MoM, sa) 0,5 2010-12-31 0,1 2010-11-30 2011-02-17
OECD Composite Leading Indicator 102,7 2010-11-30 102,2 2010-10-31
Consumer confidence (Michigan) 74,2 2011-01-31 74,5 2010-12-31 2011-02-11
Nonfarm payrolls (net change, sa, 000) 103 2010-12-31 71 2010-11-30 2011-02-04
JAPAN
Industrial production (%, YoY, nsa) 4,6 2010-12-31 5,8 2010-11-30 2011-01-31
Industrial production (%, MoM, sa) 3,1 2010-12-31 1,0 2010-11-30 2011-01-31
Capacity utilization (%, sa) 86,7 2010-11-30 85,3 2010-10-31
Manufacturing PMI 51,4 2011-01-31 48,3 2010-12-31 2011-01-31
Real GDP (%, YoY, nsa) 5,3 2010-09-30 3,5 2010-06-30
Real GDP (%, QoQ, sa) 1,1 2010-09-30 0,7 2010-06-30 2011-02-14
CPI (%, YoY) -0,1 2011-01-31 -0,1 2010-12-31 2011-02-25
CPI (%, MoM) -0,3 2010-12-31 -0,3 2010-11-30
OECD Composite Leading Indicator 103,4 2010-11-30 103,0 2010-10-31
Consumer confidence 40,2 2010-12-31 40,6 2010-11-30 2011-02-09
CHINAIndustrial production (%, YoY) 13,5 2010-12-31 13,3 2010-11-30 2011-03-11
Manufacturing PMI 53,9 2010-12-31 55,2 2010-11-30 2011-02-01
Real GDP (%, YoY) 9,8 2010-12-31 9,6 2010-09-30 2011-04-20
CPI (%, YoY) 4,6 2010-12-31 5,1 2010-11-30 2011-02-15
OECD Composite Leading Indicator 101,3 2010-11-30 101,0 2010-10-31
Consumer confidence 102,9 2010-11-30 103,8 2010-10-31
Bank lending (%, YoY) 19,9 2010-12-31 19,8 2010-11-30
Fixed asset investment (%, YoY) 23,8 2010-12-31 24,0 2010-09-30
OTHER
OECD Area Comp. Leading Indicator 102,8 2010-11-30 102,6 2010-10-31
Global manufacturing PMI 55,0 2010-12-31 53,9 2010-11-30Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research=
-
8/7/2019 SEB report: Commodity prices to rise in 2011
19/20
NU
=PERFORMANCE==
Closing YTD(%)
1 m(%)
1 q(%)
1 y(%)
5 y(%)
UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (TR) 1387,93 1,9 1,9 11,8 28,5 46,5UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (ER) 1306,04 1,9 1,9 11,8 28,4 31,3UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (PI) 1652,50 2,0 2,0 12,1 32,6 75,4UBS B. CMCI Energy Index (PI) 1487,61 3,2 3,2 14,5 20,7 22,1
UBS B. CMCI Industrial Metals Index (PI) 1291,72 0,2 0,2 10,0 26,7 64,0UBS B. CMCI Precious Metals Index (PI) 2026,51 -6,3 -6,3 0,6 29,1 139,6UBS B. CMCI Agriculture Index (PI) 2027,05 3,1 3,1 12,0 50,5 125,8Baltic Dry Index 1137,00 -36,7 -36,7 -57,5 -61,6 -45,0
Crude Oil (NYMEX, WTI, $/b) 89,34 -2,2 -2,2 9,7 21,3 30,7Crude Oil (ICE, Brent, $/b) 99,42 4,9 4,9 19,6 37,8 49,3Aluminum (LME, $/t) 2472,00 0,1 0,1 5,5 17,3 -1,5Copper (LME, $/t) 9530,00 -0,7 -0,7 16,2 38,2 96,9Nickel (LME, $/t) 26620,00 7,6 7,6 15,8 45,1 73,7Zinc (LME, $/t) 2354,00 -4,1 -4,1 -2,8 9,1 2,4Steel (LME, Mediterranean, $/t) 560,00 -1,8 -1,8 11,9 33,3 N/AGold (COMEX, $/ozt) 1340,70 -5,7 -5,7 -1,2 23,7 137,0Corn (CBOT, /bu) 644,00 2,4 2,4 10,7 78,0 195,8
Wheat (CBOT, /bu) 825,75 4,0 4,0 15,1 69,6 139,2Soybeans (CBOT, /bu) 1398,00 0,3 0,3 14,0 50,0 133,5
Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
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MAJOR UPCOMMING COMMODITY EVENTS==
Date Source
Department of Energy, US inventory data Wednesdays, 16:30 CET www.eia.doe.gov
American Petroleum Institute, US inventory data Tuesdays, 22:30 CET www.api.org
CFTC, Commitment of Traders Fridays, 21:30 CET www.cftc.gov
US Department of Agriculture, Crop Progress Mondays, 22.00 CET www.usda.gov
International Energy Agency, Oil Market Report February 10 www.oilmarketreport.com
OPEC, Oil Market Report February 10 www.opec.org
Department of Energy, Short Term Energy Outlook February 8 www.eia.doe.gov
US Department of Agriculture, WASDE February 9 www.usda.gov
International Grains Council, Grain Market Report February 24 www.igc.org.uk
OPEC ordinary meeting, Vienna, Austria June 2 www.opec.org
Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
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CONTACT LIST==
COMMODITIES Position E-mail Phone Mobile
Terje Anderson Global Head ofCommodities
[email protected] +47 22 82 71 03 +47 92 61 26 76
RESEARCH
Bjarne Schieldrop Chief analyst [email protected] +47 22 82 72 53 +47 92 48 92 30
Filip Petersson Strategist [email protected] +46 8 506 230 47 +46 70 996 08 84
CORP. SALESMats Forsell Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 230 14 +46 70 496 20 82
Charlotte Aleblad Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 233 91 +46 76 037 91 10
Katarina Johnsson Head of Corp. Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 233 95 +46 73 501 52 02
Maximilian Brodin Sales [email protected] +47 22 82 71 62 +47 92 45 67 27
INST. SALESArne Boberg Head of Inst. sales [email protected] +46 8 506 230 50 +46 70 699 99 67
Karin Almgren Broker [email protected] +46 8 506 230 51 +46 73 642 31 76
Christian Ekstrand Quantitative analyst [email protected] +46 8 506 230 40 +46 70 763 91 95
Andreas Hansson Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 232 30 +46 70 772 30 64
TRADING
Mats Hedberg Chief Dealer [email protected] +46 8 506 230 15 +46 70 462 29 78
Stephan Roelly Trader [email protected] +46 8 506 230 64 +46 73 517 77 39=
TECH. ANALYSIS Position E-mail Phone Mobile
Anders Sderberg Chief tech. analyst [email protected] +46 8 506 230 21 +46 70 772 302 1Dag Mller Tech. analyst [email protected] +46 8 506 231 29 +46 70 772 312 9
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8/7/2019 SEB report: Commodity prices to rise in 2011
20/20
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