Information-Energy Metasystem Model (IEMM)

Or: how do we best organize humanity?

“The Universe is Evolving. The organizing of matter is constantly growing more complex.

This growing complexity occurs through metasystem transitions from which new levels of organization emerge which are levels of the

control hierarchy.” (Turchin 1977, p.241)

Overview

• Control system unable to align stable goal state

• Model for understanding control transitions

• Evolutionary/historical control systems

• Human system will need new controls this century

Never-Ending Cybernetic Challenge

• Study of communication/control (Wiener 1948)

• Ancient Greek kybernetes (steersman): science of effective governance (Heylighen & Joslyn 2001)

• How can the human system be

guided in a dynamic environment?(Gershenson et al. 2013)

Goal State: We Are Losing…• State of the Future (Global Report Card):

– Ecological footprint/biocapacity

– CO2 emissions

– Forest areas

– Fresh water resources

– Income/wealth inequality

– Terrorism incidents

– Criminal organizations

– Political/financial corruption

– Unemployment

– Voter turnout

– Freedom/Human rights(Glenn et al. 2014)

“When you consider the many wrong decisions and good decisions not taken – day after day and year after year around the world – it is amazing that we

are still making as much progress as we are.” (Glenn et al. 2014, p. 2)

Imagine what we could accomplish if we maximized collective knowledge and intelligence!

Structural Control Issue

• Political institutions are 18th c. social tech (Last 2014a)

– Plagued: inefficient/corrupt (Noveck 2009)(e.g., Gilens & Page 2014)

• 18th c. communications/transportation obsolete

– So why do we have 18th c. social institutions?

“The Internet is evolving into one of the most significant enablers of political innovation since the

emergence of mass democracy.” (Chadwick 2012, p. 39)

“Because the world is better educated and increasingly connected, people are becoming less

tolerant of the abuse of elite power than in the past.”(Glenn et al. 2014, p. 2)

Information-Energy Metasystem Model

• Function/Purpose:

– Context for historical human control transitions

– Guidance in deciding future control organization

• Three control systems emerged w/ new energy:

– Hunting, agriculture, industry (Last 2014b)

• New controls emerge during metasystems:

– Use information medium to control new energy

Theoretical Foundations (#1)

• Metasystem Transition (MST) Theory (Turchin 1977)

• MST: evolutionary-cybernetic process (Heylighen et al. 1995)

– Smaller subsystems form integrated wholes (Goertzel 2002)

- Highest information control allows integration of disparate subsystems

-Replication of higher entity can lead to higher metasystems

- Target of selection increases (multi-level selection) (biological/cultural)

The Metasystem: (Turchin 1977, p. 55)

“THE APPERANCE of human society is a large-scale metasystem transition in which the subsystems being integrated are whole [super]organisms.”

(Turchin 1977, p. 84)

Theoretical Foundations (#2)

• Paradigm: Thermoeconomic organization (Corning 2002)

– Energy as currency for cybernetic control

– In contrast to thermodynamic order paradigm(e.g., Schrödinger 1944; Prigogine et al. 1972a; 1972b)

• Control Information Theory (Corning 2005; 2007)

• Agents “control information” (Corning 2007)

– Capacity to purposively acquire/utilize energy

– Formalization: Ic = [Au / Ai](Corning 2005, Part III)

“Information is an objective element of the natural world that is equivalent in importance

to matter and energy.” (Corning 2007, p. 14)

“Information can only be defined in terms of the cognitive abilities and subjective experience of

the user.” (Corning 2007, p. 14)

Latent information (Ip)(potential / unused)

Control information (IC)(being / used)

Fig.1: IEMM: Formation of Human Metasystems

Control System (“steers” metasystem hierarchy)

Band/Tribe Cheifdom/Kingdom Nation-state/International

Energy System (structure of control)

Hunting Agriculture Industry

Information Medium (function of control)

Language Writing Printing Press

• Hierarchical IC feedback generates and stabilizes metasystem control of higher complexity:

– Ic breakdown leads to control breakdown

– Ic increase leads to higher complexity

Structure of Metasystems

A1

A2

A3

B

B1

B2

B3

C

Fig.2: Parts and Wholes

IEMM: Emergence of Band/Tribe

• Closest relatives party/group size (max: 10/50) (e.g., Chapman et al. 1994)

• Human hunter-gatherers (100-250) (Dunbar 2003)

– MST mechanism: grooming language (social glue) (Gamble et al. 2011)

• New information medium increased Ic:

– ability acquire/distribute meat (Ambrose 2001; Wrangham 2009)

– Allows new organization (unites groups into bands)

“For humans, […] effectively bonded social groups are essential for successful survival and reproduction,

and since grooming has a natural limit on the size of group that can be bonded by it, language was

necessary to break through this glass ceiling and allow larger groups to evolve.” (Dunbar 2009, p. 14)

IEMM: Emergence of Civilization

• Agricultural civilization size range:

– 1-10k (Gabriel 2007) / 10-100m (Taagepera 1979; 1997)

– MST mechanism: written language (Houston 2004)

• New information medium increased Ic:

– ability tax and regulate agricultural surplus (Cooper 2004)

– Organization of city-states/kingdoms/empire

“In each case […] writing was a response to increasing social and political complexity. The particular aspect of that complexity that led to

the invention of writing was administrative, tracking income, disbursements, and transfers

within large organizations.” (Cooper 2004, p. 72)

IEMM: Emergence of Modern World

• Industrial civilization populations:

– Size max: 1-2 billion (Winters & Yusuf 2007)

– MST mechanism: printing press (Eisenstein 1979; Harnad 1991)

• New information medium increased Ic

– scientific/technical knowledge for stabilization of fossil fuel exploitation (Niele 2005)

– Organization of nation-states and international networks

“The printing press increased the size of the educated and literate classes. Renaissance

civilization thus took a [leap], calling into play the intelligence of more individuals than ever before. Not for much longer would it be enough for kings

to win the acquiescence of the nobility and the upper clergy; as was acknowledged by the frantic

attempts to control the press.” (Niele 2005, p. 61)

IEEM: Human Metasystems

• IC Feedback between:– Language-Hunting Band/Tribe– Writing-Agriculture Chiefdom/Kingdom– Printing Press-Industry Nation-state/International

• What is the relation between control organization and nature of information medium?– Developmentally/structurally determined (?)

• Today: Internet new information medium– However: no new energy, no new controls– We are riding beginning of a global metasystem

Fig.3: IEMM: Emergent Metasystem?

• Full stabilization of Internet-Renewables/Fusion:– MST: nation-states into global entity

– Nation-states = provinces/states(?)

• How do we control local-to-global? (“glocal”)

Control System (“steers” metasystem hierarchy)

Band/Tribe Cheifdom/Kingdom Nation-state/International Global

Energy System (structure of control)

Hunting Agriculture Industry Fusion

Information Medium (function of control)

Language Writing Printing Press Internet

“The Internet era is very similar in important areas to the printing press era, and, because the printing

press had broad and profound effects on its age we should expect similarly broad and profound

effects in the information age.” (Dewar 2000, p. 3)

Control in the 21st century

• IEEModel suggests:– New controls will emerge (White House = Museum?)– Dependent on: Internet, renewables/fusion (?)

• Cybernetic challenge: – Navigating the transition to global superorganism

• Nature of future controls (let go!):– Globally Distributed – Digital – Direct Democracy

Distributed Digital Democracy“A Wikipedia for Government”

Input Stigmergic, self-organizing social space for policy proposal

Processing

Collective argumentation networks for policy based around social algorithms quantifying agent “trust” and “efficiency”

Output Voting for proposed policy distributed via email/app (transition from voting on people to voting on ideas)

Feedback Votes classified and implemented or revised based on public response

• Learn from social networks (i.e., Wikipedia, Reddit)

• Restructure governments internally (Larsfalten et al. 2011)

– “FAST”: Flatter, agile, stream-lined, tech-enabled

Main Points

• Control system unable to align stable goal state

• Model for understanding control transitions

• Evolutionary/historical control systems

• Human system will need new controls this century

Thanks for your time!

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