Indian Banks · 2016-06-20 · • Indian banking system is dominated by public sector banks. As...

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1 Indian Banks Anita Yadav Head of Fixed Income Research Aditya Pugalia Analyst March 2015

Transcript of Indian Banks · 2016-06-20 · • Indian banking system is dominated by public sector banks. As...

Page 1: Indian Banks · 2016-06-20 · • Indian banking system is dominated by public sector banks. As per latest data, public sector banks accounted for 73.2% in total deposits and 71.6%

1

Indian Banks

Anita YadavHead of Fixed Income Research

Aditya PugaliaAnalyst

March 2015

Page 2: Indian Banks · 2016-06-20 · • Indian banking system is dominated by public sector banks. As per latest data, public sector banks accounted for 73.2% in total deposits and 71.6%

• Indian banking system is dominated by public sector banks. As per latest data, public sector banks accounted for 73.2% in

total deposits and 71.6% in total credit.

• As per S&P, Indian banks benefit from high levels of stable core customer deposits. Banking regulation are perceived to be in

line with international standards. Regulatory supervision is fairly robust even as disclosure standards are considered

inadequate by some.

• As seen in the table below, there is a wide gulf between the operational efficiencies of public sector and private sector banks.

The same can be seen in quality of credit as public sector banks tend to suffer from government intervention and a general

responsibility to support government-related entities.

Indian Banking Sector – The Basics

All Banks Public Sector Banks Private Sector Banks

FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015

Return on Equity (%) 13.84 10.69 10.42 13.24 8.48 7.76 16.46 16.22 15.74

Return on Assets (%) 1.04 0.81 0.81 0.80 0.50 0.46 1.63 1.65 1.68

Credit – Deposit Ratio

(%)79.14 78.93 78.31 77.85 77.42 76.11 81.90 84.37 86.36

Net Interest Margin (%) 2.79 2.70 2.64 2.57 2.45 2.34 3.22 3.31 3.37

Gross NPA to Gross

Advance Ratio (%)3.23 3.83 4.27 3.24 4.09 5.26 1.77 1.78 2.10

Staff Expenses to Total

Income (%)10.14 10.41 10.28 10.50 10.99 10.77 8.73 8.60 8.73

Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research

Page 3: Indian Banks · 2016-06-20 · • Indian banking system is dominated by public sector banks. As per latest data, public sector banks accounted for 73.2% in total deposits and 71.6%

• The current conversation on Indian banks centers around

the high levels of non-performing loans on the books of

public sector banks and the ability of the government to

infuse required capital in public sector banks.

• Most Indian public sector banks reported huge losses in Q3

and Q4 of FY 2016 after the Reserve Bank of India

tightened the bank’s requirement on classifying NPLs. The

key change made by the RBI was to increase provision on

restructured account from 2% to 5%. Earlier, restructured

accounts were not classified as NPL.

• While over the longer term these measures are expected to

enhance transparency, the magnitude of the problem

suggests that the asset quality is likely to remain under

pressure over the next 12-18 months which could result in

rating downgrades.

• The negative earnings trajectory has put pressure on certain

public sector banks to meet the minimum regulatory capital

requirement with some barely complying (i.e, IoB). This

coupled with stringent Basel III norms puts greater onus on

the government.

Indian Banks – The Present

0.0

4.0

8.0

12.0

16.0

20.0

NPLs increasing (%)

Q2 FY 16 Q3 FY 16 Q4 FY 16

0.0

4.0

8.0

12.0

16.0

20.0

Tier 1 Capital Ratio (%)

Q2 FY 16 Q3 FY 16 Q4 FY 16 Reg Req

Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research

Page 4: Indian Banks · 2016-06-20 · • Indian banking system is dominated by public sector banks. As per latest data, public sector banks accounted for 73.2% in total deposits and 71.6%

Administrative reforms

• The government has initiated some administrative reforms in a bid to reduce government interference in the operations of

public sector banks. For example, the government has set up a Banks Board Bureau. The bureau has been tasked with

finding heads of public sector banks and financial institutions and also help banks in developing strategies and capital raising

plans.

Legislative reforms

• The Indian Parliament passed a new Bankruptcy code which will replace multiple laws dealing with insolvency. The legislation

proposes to set up a new entity – The Insolvency and Bankruptcy Board of India. The basic purpose of the code is to make it

easier to wind up a failing business. For example, currently it takes an average of 4.5 years to resolve insolvency in India with

recovery rate of debt very low. The new law seeks to change this by imposing a time limit on the bankruptcy process. In case

of default, the time limit is 180 days within which the resolution has to be completed. This can be extended by a maximum of

further 90 days. The benefit of new law is likely to be felt over the medium term but is a step in the right direction.

Executive reforms

• The government seems to have fast-tracked the process of consolidation of public sector banks with the aim to have six to

seven large banks. In fact, the State Bank of India has already requested permission from the Government to merge all its

associate banks and subsidiaries with itself. While this is a welcome move, it is also perhaps the most difficult to execute

given the entrenched presence of staff unions and vested government interests.

Indian Banks – The Future

Page 5: Indian Banks · 2016-06-20 · • Indian banking system is dominated by public sector banks. As per latest data, public sector banks accounted for 73.2% in total deposits and 71.6%

Indian Banks – Relative to its peers

• According to S&P the strengths and weakness of an economy and banking industry are critical factors that underpin the

creditworthiness of a country’s financial institutions.

• The above chart reflects the BICRA (Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment) of S&P wherein they have evaluated and

compared global banking systems and grouped them on a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 reflects the lowest risk banking systems.

There are two components i.e., economic risk which takes into account the structure and stability of the country’s economy

and the industry risk which factors in the quality and effectiveness of bank regulations and the role of central bank and

government.

• India’s banking system is rated 5 on both parameters suggesting a lower risk compared to most of its emerging market peers

like China, Russia and Brazil.

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Ind

us

try R

isk

Economic Risk

S&P BICRA – May 2016

Egypt

Taiwan

Australia

Singapore

Korea

Kuwait

Malaysia

KSA

India

UAE

Qatar

Turkey

China

South AfricaThailand

Brazil

Indonesia

Russia

Source: S&P, Emirates NBD Research

Page 6: Indian Banks · 2016-06-20 · • Indian banking system is dominated by public sector banks. As per latest data, public sector banks accounted for 73.2% in total deposits and 71.6%

• Indian banks are currently trading expensive

relative to its emerging market peers.

• This becomes all the more apparent given the

current weak credit quality and poor capital ratios.

The gap is wider when compared to GCC banks

despite better capital and NPL ratio of GCC banks.

• However, it must be noted that Indian bank credit

has always historically traded at a slight premium to

its peers.

Indian Banks – Relative Valuations

as of last calendar year Indian Banks Median GCC Banks Median Asia Pacific EM Banks Median

Net Interest Margin 2.64% 2.94% 3.21%

Return on Equity 7.00% 14.29% 15.44%

Cost to Income Ratio 52.93% 36.79% 42.20%

Return on Assets 0.44% 1.90% 1.12%

Tier 1 Capital Ratio 9.67% 15.42% 12.07%

Loans to Deposit Ratio 77.53% 95.11% 79.36%

Non Performing Loans Ratio 5.97% 2.80% 1.57%

Coverage Ratio 55.7% 111.45% 154.90%

Average Rating BB+ A BBB-

Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

A1 A2 A3 Baa1 Baa3 Ba3

Z S

pre

ad

Moody's Ratings

Selected EM Bonds maturing in 2020

BBK 20s

Turkiye Sinai 20s

FGB 20sSBI 20s

ENBD 20sEXIM Mal 20s

ICICI 20s

BoI 20s

ICBC 20s

Page 7: Indian Banks · 2016-06-20 · • Indian banking system is dominated by public sector banks. As per latest data, public sector banks accounted for 73.2% in total deposits and 71.6%

• Axis Bank is a private sector bank. The government

indirectly owns 25.2% of the bank, 13.7% through Life

Insurance Corporation of India and 11.5% through Unit

Trust of India. These are not considered as strategic

stakes.

• Established in 1993, Axis Bank has over 2,400 branches

in India and overseas offices in Singapore, HK, Colombo,

Shanghai and Abu Dhabi.

• As per latest data, the bank had 4.1% market share in

loans and advances and 3.5% market share in customer

deposits.

• In terms of geography, India contributes 94% of bank’s

revenues with 89% of bank’s assets based in India.

• The bank’s standalone credit quality is at BBB level

which is one notch higher than the final rating. The final

rating is constrained by India’s sovereign rating of BBB-.

• In term of quality, the bank is in top quartile compared to

its peers with NPL ratio of 1.80%, Tier 1 Capital ratio of

12.5% in FY 2016.

Axis Bank Segment Break-up (USD mn) FY 2016 %age

Revenue 7,853.6 100.0%

– Treasury 9,208.6 50.4%

- Retail Banking 5,212.8 28.5%

- Corporate Banking 3,673.5 20.1%

- Other Banking Business 165.5 0.9%

- Inter Segment Revenue -10,406.8

Key Ratios

Net Interest Margin 3.97%

Return on Assets 1.72%

Return on Equity 17.49%

NPL Ratio 1.80%

Loan to Deposit Ratio 94.64%

Axis Bank, BBB- / Stable, Baa3 / Positive

0

200

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600

800

1000

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2024 2025 Perpetual

Debt Distribution

Total Bond Prin Term Loan Out Revolver Out

Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research

Page 8: Indian Banks · 2016-06-20 · • Indian banking system is dominated by public sector banks. As per latest data, public sector banks accounted for 73.2% in total deposits and 71.6%

• Bank of Baroda is a government owned bank. The

government directly owns 59.2% of the bank and 10.9%

through Life Insurance Corporation of India.

• The bank was founded in 1908 and currently operates

over 4,200 branches in India and has presence in nearly

24 countries through 102 international offices.

• As per latest data, the bank had a 4.7% market share in

loans and advances and 5.6% market share in customer

deposits.

• In terms of geography, 88.1% of bank’s revenues came

from India. Nearly 35% of bank’s assets were based

outside India.

• In terms of balance sheet, the credit quality has

deteriorated sharply with NPL ratio increasing from 4.5%

at the end of FY 2015 to 12.1% at the end of FY 2016.

The trend is in line with broad public sector banks in

India. The Tier-1 capital ratio of 10.8% at the end of FY

2016 does provide some comfort.

BoB Segment Break-up (USD mn) FY 2016 %age

Revenue 7,918.9 100.0%

- Banking 5,445.6 68.8%

- Corporate / Wholesale Banking 3,421.6 43.2%

- Retail 1,765.4 22.3%

- Other Banking Operations 258.6 3.3%

- Treasury 2,473.3 31.2%

Key Ratios

Net Interest Margin 2.05%

Return on Assets -0.78%

Return on Equity -13.48%

NPL Ratio 12.07%

Loan to Deposit Ratio 68.50%

Bank of Baroda, Not Rated, Baa3 / Positive

0

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600

800

1000

1200

2016 2018 2019 2022 2023 2024 2025 Perpetual

Debt Distribution

Total Bond Prin Term Loan Out

Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research

Page 9: Indian Banks · 2016-06-20 · • Indian banking system is dominated by public sector banks. As per latest data, public sector banks accounted for 73.2% in total deposits and 71.6%

• Bank of India is a public sector bank. The government

directly owns 70.3% in the bank.

• The bank was established in 1906. It currently operates

through over 4,600 domestic branches and over 50

overseas branches.

• As per latest data, the bank’s market share in loans and

advances and customer deposits stood at 5.4% and

5.3% respectively.

• In terms of geography, India contributes c. 89% of bank’s

revenues. In terms of overseas exposure, Bank of India

is among the top public sector banks with 27% assets

based outside.

• In terms of balance sheet, the credit quality has

deteriorated sharply with non-performing loans rising to

13.9% at the end of FY 2016 from 5.8% at the end of FY

2015. The bank’s tier 1 capital ratio of 8.6% ensures that

it remains heavily dependent on the government for fresh

capital infusion. As of March 2016, the government had

approved capital infusion of INR 11.5bn in the bank.

BoI Segment Break-up (USD mn) FY 2016 %age

Revenue 6,997.4 100.0%

- Wholesale Banking 3,067.1 43.0%

- Retail Banking 2,223.4 31.2%

- Treasury 1,844.8 25.9%

- Inter Segment Revenue -26.1

- Unallocated -111.8

Key Ratios

Net Interest Margin 2.11%

Return on Assets -0.94%

Return on Equity -19.10%

NPL Ratio 13.89%

Loan to Deposit Ratio 70.02%

Bank of India, BB+ / Stable, Baa3 / Positive

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2016 2018 2020 2021 2023 2024 2025 Perpetual

Debt Distribution

Total Bond Prin

Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research

Page 10: Indian Banks · 2016-06-20 · • Indian banking system is dominated by public sector banks. As per latest data, public sector banks accounted for 73.2% in total deposits and 71.6%

• Canara Bank is a public sector bank. The government

directly owns 66.3% in the bank and 13.8% through the

Life Insurance Corporation of India.

• The bank was founded in 1906 and currently operates

through over 4,700 domestic branches and 5 overseas

branches.

• As per latest data, the bank’s market share in loans and

advances and customer deposits stood at 4.8% and

5.0% respectively.

• In terms of geography, India contributes 97.4% of the

bank’s revenues with 90.3% assets based in India.

• In terms of balance sheet, the bank’s credit quality has

deteriorated in line with broad trends. The NPL ratio has

increased to 9.7% at the end of FY 2016 from 3.9% at

the end of FY 2015. The Tier 1 capital of the bank remain

low at 8.8% at the end of FY 2016. This is within 100bps

of the regulatory requirement. The government infused

INR 9.47bn in the bank in 2015.

Canara Bank Segment Break-up (USD

mn)

FY 2016 %age

Revenue 7,518.2 100.0%

- Wholesale Banking 3,116.4 41.9%

- Retail Banking 2,363.8 31.8%

- Treasury 1,958.8 26.3%

- Unallocated 79.2

Key Ratios

Net Interest Margin 1.94%

Return on Assets -0.52%

Return on Equity -10.69%

NPL Ratio 9.74%

Loan to Deposit Ratio 67.68%

Canara Bank, Not Rated, Baa3 / Positive

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2016 2017 2018 2019 2021 2022 2024 2025 2026 Perpetual

Debt Distribution

Total Bond Prin

Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research

Page 11: Indian Banks · 2016-06-20 · • Indian banking system is dominated by public sector banks. As per latest data, public sector banks accounted for 73.2% in total deposits and 71.6%

• HDFC Bank is the second largest private sector bank

with no government ownership. Life Insurance

Corporation of India owns 2.4% in the bank.

• As per latest data, the bank had 5.6% market share in

loans and advances and 5.0% market share in customer

deposits.

• In terms of geography, India contributes 98.4% of the

bank’s revenues with 94.8% assets based in India.

• The bank’s standalone credit quality is BBB+ level which

is two notches above the final rating of BBB-. The final

rating is constrained by India’s sovereign credit rating of

BBB-.

• In terms of quality, the bank is among the best

performing banks in India. The non-performing loan ratio

is below 1% at 0.95% with return on equity as high as

18.3% at the end of FY 2016. The CASA deposits for the

bank is among the highest in India at c.40% levels.

HDFC Bank Segment Break-up (USD

mn)

FY 2016 %age

Revenue 11,371.7 100.0%

- Retail Banking 9,059.7 51.2%

- Wholesale Banking 4,153.1 23.5%

- Treasury 2,792.7 15.8%

- Other Banking Operation 1,674.9 9.5%

- Unallocated 0.0

- Intersegment -6,308.8

Key Ratios

Net Interest Margin 4.30%

Return on Assets 1.90%

Return on Equity 18.26%

NPL Ratio 0.95%

Loan to Deposit Ratio 85.02%

HDFC Bank, BBB- / Stable, Baa3 / Positive

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2016 2017 2018 2019 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Perpetual

Debt Distribution

Total Bond Prin Term Loan Out

Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research

Page 12: Indian Banks · 2016-06-20 · • Indian banking system is dominated by public sector banks. As per latest data, public sector banks accounted for 73.2% in total deposits and 71.6%

• ICICI Bank is the largest private sector bank and the third

largest bank in India. In fact in 2015, the Reserve Bank of India

classified ICICI Bank as among the two banks it considered ‘too

big to fail’.

• ICICI Bank was originally promoted in 1994 by ICICI Limited.

ICICI was formed in 1955 at the initiative of the World Bank, the

Government of India and representatives of Indian Industry.

• As per latest data, the bank’s market share in loans and

advances and customer deposits stood at 6.4% and 4.9%.

• In terms of geography, India dominates as it accounts for 92.0%

of bank’s revenues and 80.4% of bank’s assets.

• The standalone credit quality of the bank is BBB which is one

notch higher than the final rating of BBB-. The final rating is

constrained by India’s sovereign rating of BBB-.

• In terms of balance sheet, the bank is in the mid quartile when

compared to its private sector peers. The NPL ratio at the end

of FY 2016 stood at 5.9% with l/d ratio c.110%. However it has

to be noted that high l/d ratio is partly because of restrictions to

raise deposits in international locations to fund international

loans.

ICICI Bank Segment Break-up (USD mn) FY 2016 %age

Revenue 15,503.5 100.0%

- Treasury 7,391.4 30.4%

- Retail Banking 5,991.8 24.7%

- Wholesale Banking 5,029.3 20.7%

- Insurance Operations 4,568.6 18.8%

- Others - Home Finance 710.8 2.9%

- Other Banking business 601.6 2.5%

- Inter Segment Revenue -8,789.9

Key Ratios

Net Interest Margin 3.49%

Return on Assets 1.49%

Return on Equity 11.32%

NPL Ratio 5.85%

Loan to Deposit Ratio 109.85

ICICI Bank, BBB- / Stable, Baa3 / Positive

0

500

1000

1500

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2500

3000

3500

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2030 Undis Perp

Debt Distribution

Total Bond Prin Term Loan Out

Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research

Page 13: Indian Banks · 2016-06-20 · • Indian banking system is dominated by public sector banks. As per latest data, public sector banks accounted for 73.2% in total deposits and 71.6%

• IDBI Bank is a public sector bank. The Government of

India directly owns 73.98% and 14.4% through the Life

Insurance Corporation of India.

• IDBI Bank operated as Development Financial Institution

up until September 2004. Thereafter it was converted

into a bank.

• As per latest data, the bank had a 3.0% market shares in

loans and advances and 2.5% market share in customer

deposits.

• The standalone credit quality of the bank stood at BB.

The final credit rating of BB+ is one notch higher and

reflects expectations of government support.

• In terms of Balance Sheet, the NPL ratio has deteriorated

from 5.9% at the end of FY 2015 to 11.5% at the end of

FY 2016. The Tier 1 capital ratio was also within 100 bps

of regulatory requirement at 8.9% at the end of FY 2016.

At the end of 2015, the government infused INR 22.29bn

in the bank.

IDBI Bank Segment Break-up (USD mn) FY 2016 %age

Revenue 4,828.0 100.0%

- Retail Banking 3,770.4 49.8%

- Wholesale Banking 3,691.9 48.7%

- Treasury 85.1 1.1%

- Others 27.6 0.4%

- Inter Segment Revenue -2,747.0

Key Ratios

Net Interest Margin 1.88%

Return on Assets -1.07%

Return on Equity -14.08%

NPL Ratio 11.52%

Loan to Deposit Ratio 11.52%

IDBI Bank, BB+ / Stable, Baa3 / Stable

0

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800

1000

1200

Debt Distribution

Total Bond Prin

Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research

Page 14: Indian Banks · 2016-06-20 · • Indian banking system is dominated by public sector banks. As per latest data, public sector banks accounted for 73.2% in total deposits and 71.6%

• Indian Overseas Bank is a public sector. The government

directly owns 73.5% and 13.8% through Life Insurance

Corporation of India in the bank.

• The bank was founded in 1937 and currently operates over

1,400 local branches and six overseas branches.

• As per latest data, the bank had 2.5% market share in loans

and advances and 2.8% market share in customer deposits.

• In terms of geography, India dominates as it accounts for

96% for the bank’s revenues and 93.0% of bank’s assets.

• The standalone credit quality of the bank stood at BB. The

final credit rating of BB+ is one notch higher and reflects

expectations of government support.

• In terms of balance sheet, the bank is in low quartile when

compared to its public sector baking peers. The NPL ratio of

the bank doubled from 8.3% at the end of FY 2015 to 17.4%

at the end of FY 2016. The Tier 1 capital at the end of FY

2016 at 7.8% suggests that the bank is solely reliant on the

government to meet the regulatory requirement. In fact in

2015, the RBI had to initiated a prompt corrective action on

the bank to improve controls.

IoB Segment Break-up (USD mn) FY 2016 %age

Revenue 3,982.4 100.0%

- Corporate/Wholesale Banking 1,730.0 43.4%

- Treasury 1,113.0 27.9%

- Retail Banking 1,096.6 27.5%

- Other Banking Operations 42.6 1.1%

- Unallocated 0.2

Key Ratios

Net Interest Margin 1.94%

Return on Assets -0.97%

Return on Equity -18.51%

NPL Ratio 17.40%

Loan to Deposit Ratio 71.64%

Indian Overseas Bank, BB / Stable, Ba1 / Negative

0

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300

400

500

600

700

2016 2018 2019 2020 2021 2023 2024 2026 Perpetual

Debt Distribution

Total Bond Prin

Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research

Page 15: Indian Banks · 2016-06-20 · • Indian banking system is dominated by public sector banks. As per latest data, public sector banks accounted for 73.2% in total deposits and 71.6%

• State Bank of India is the largest bank in India. The

government of India directly owns 60.2% and 11.3% through

Life Insurance Corporation of India in the bank. The bank was

classified as ‘too big to fail’ by the RBI.

• As per latest, the bank had 23.9% market share in loans and

advances and 25.1% market share in customer deposits.

• In terms of geography, India contributes 95.3% of bank’s

revenues with 88.2% assets based domestically.

• The quality of the bank’s balance sheet is low given that the

bank carries the responsibility of primary lender to public

sector companies and low profit debtors. It also operates in

regions / areas where commercial operations are not

financially viable.

• The NPL ratio for the bank increased from 4.4% at the end of

FY 2015 to 6.8% at the end of FY 2016. The bank, however,

managed to maintain its Tier 1 capital ratio at 9.9% mainly on

the back of capital infusion from the government. The

government infused INR 53.93bn in the bank in 2015.

SBI Segment Break-up (USD mn) FY 2016 %age

Revenue 41,722.2 100.0%

- Retail Banking 14,861.4 35.9%

- Corporate/ Wholesale Banking 13,277.5 32.0%

- Treasury 9,372.3 22.6%

- Insurance Business 3,191.0 7.7%

- Other Banking Operations 744.6 1.8%

- Unallocated 275.3

Key Ratios

Net Interest Margin 2.96%

Return on Assets 0.46%

Return on Equity 7.57%

NPL Ratio 6.52%

Loan to Deposit Ratio 83.40%

State Bank of India, BBB- / Stable, Baa3 / Positive

0

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2000

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Undis Perp

Debt Distribution

Total Bond Prin Term Loan Out

Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research

Page 16: Indian Banks · 2016-06-20 · • Indian banking system is dominated by public sector banks. As per latest data, public sector banks accounted for 73.2% in total deposits and 71.6%

• Syndicate Bank is a mid-sized public sector bank. The

government directly owns 69.3% stake in the bank.

• The bank was established in 1925 and currently operates

through over 3,300 branches in the country.

• As per latest data, the bank’s market share in loans and

advances and customer deposits stood at 2.5% and

2.6% respectively.

• The bank’s credit rating was downgraded to BB+ from

BBB- by S&P at the end of last month. However, the final

rating was a notch higher than bank’s standalone credit

profile of BB. This was mainly on the back of

expectations of continued government support. The

government infused INR 16.75bn in the bank in FY 2016.

• In terms of balance sheet, the bank is among the bottom

quartile of public sector banks. The NPL ratio for the

bank jumped from 3.7% at the end of FY 2015 to 7.92%

at the end of FY 2016. The Tier 1 capital ratio of 7.75%

at the end of FY 2016 was just meeting the regulatory

requirement.

Syndicate Bank Segment Break-up

(USD mn)

FY 2016 %age

Revenue 3,949.6 100.0%

- Retail Banking 1,446.0 36.6%

- Corporate Banking 1,376.9 34.9%

- Treasury 1,057.0 26.8%

- Other Banking Operations 69.7 1.8%

Key Ratios

Net Interest Margin 2.28%

Return on Assets 0.56%

Return on Equity -10.55%

NPL Ratio 7.92%

Loan to Deposit Ratio 76.19%

Syndicate Bank, BB+ / Stable, Baa3 / Positive

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400

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600

2016 2018 2019 2021 2022 2024 2025 Undis Perp

Debt Distribution

Total Bond Prin Term Loan Out

Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research

Page 17: Indian Banks · 2016-06-20 · • Indian banking system is dominated by public sector banks. As per latest data, public sector banks accounted for 73.2% in total deposits and 71.6%

• Union Bank of India is a public sector bank. The

government directly owns 63.4% and 10.2% through Life

Insurance Corporation of India in the bank.

• The bank was founded in 1919 and currently operates over

3,800 branches.

• As per latest data, the bank has 3.8% market share in loans

and advances and 3.7% market share in customer deposits.

• The bank’s credit outlook was revised to negative by S&P at

the end of last month over concerns of deteriorating asset

quality. However, the final rating was a notch higher than

bank’s standalone credit profile of BB+. This was mainly on

the back of expectations of continued government support.

The government infused INR 1.07bn in the bank in FY

2016.

• The asset quality has deteriorated sharply with NPL ratio

increasing to 9.3% at the end of FY 2016 from 5.3% at the

end of FY 2015. The Tier 1 capital ratio of 8.2% at the end

of FY 2016 is within 100 bps of regulatory requirement.

Union Bank Segment Break-up (USD

mn)

FY 2016 %age

Revenue 5,542.7 100.0%

- Corporate / Wholesale Banking 2,329.7 42.4%

- Retail Banking 1,562.8 28.5%

- Treasury 1,556.1 28.3%

- Unallocated 64.2

- Other Banking Operations 40.5 0.7%

- Inter-segment Revenue -10.6

Key Ratios

Net Interest Margin 2.32%

Return on Assets 0.35%

Return on Equity 6.84%

NPL Ratio 8.98%

Loan to Deposit Ratio 81.08%

Union Bank of India, BBB- / Negative, Baa3 / Positive

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2017 2018 2019 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Perpetual

Debt Distribution

Total Bond Prin

Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research

Page 18: Indian Banks · 2016-06-20 · • Indian banking system is dominated by public sector banks. As per latest data, public sector banks accounted for 73.2% in total deposits and 71.6%

• Export-Import Bank of India was founded is 1982 and is

100% owned by the government.

• The bank’s operations are mostly in export credit and

finance for companies looking to expand beyond the

domestic market.

• The bank has no stand alone credit quality assessment

and its rating is at par with that of government of India.

• The balance sheet quality of the bank is healthy with Tier

1 capital ratio of 13.8% at the end of FY 2016 and low

non-performing loan ratio as it mainly provides short-

term financing.

EXIM Bank Segment Break-up (USD mn) FY 2015 FY 2014

Book Value of Equity 1,658.8 1,444.1

Customer Deposits 323.3 396.2

Total Loans to Total Deposits 4,242.32 3,189.2

Total Assets 15,796.3 14,551.1

Net Revenue 373.8 427.8

Operating Profit (Loss) 185.7 167.4

Provisions & Contingencies 153.6 230.2

Tier 1 Risk Based Capital Ratio 13.8% 12.8%

Total Capital Ratio 15.3% 14.3%

EXIM Bank, BBB- / Stable, Baa3 / Positive

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2029 2030 2031 2033

Debt Distribution

Total Bond Prin Term Loan Out Revolver Out

Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research

Page 19: Indian Banks · 2016-06-20 · • Indian banking system is dominated by public sector banks. As per latest data, public sector banks accounted for 73.2% in total deposits and 71.6%

Indian Banks – Financial Summary

NameNIM

(%)

RoA

(%)

RoE

(%)

NPL Ratio

(%)

L/D Ratio

(%)

Tier 1

Ratio (%)

Total Debt

(USDmn)

Total Assets

(USDmn)

State Bank of India 2.96 0.46 7.57 6.52 83.40 9.92 38,578 341,520

Canara Bank 1.94 -0.52 -10.69 9.74 67.68 8.80 4,062 83,595

Bank of Baroda 2.05 -0.78 -13.48 12.07 68.50 10.79 17,986 101,497

Bank of India 2.11 -0.94 -19.10 13.89 70.02 9.03 7,722 92,205

IDBI Bank 1.88 -1.07 -14.08 11.52 81.25 8.89 10,518 56,597

Indian Overseas Bank 1.94 -0.97 -18.51 17.40 71.64 7.75 4,109 41,489

Syndicate Bank 2.28 0.56 -10.55 7.92 76.19 7.75 8,912 46,558

Union Bank of India 2.32 0.35 6.84 8.98 81.08 8.14 6,589 61,181

Axis Bank 3.97 1.72 17.49 1.80 94.64 12.51 15,000 79,439

HDFC Bank 4.30 1.90 18.26 0.95 85.02 13.20 8,015 107,162

ICICI Bank 3.49 1.49 11.32 5.85 109.85 13.09 29,193 108,953

EXIM Bank* 2.13 0.78 7.65 2.99 - 13.80 12,309 15,796

Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research

* Data pertains to FY 2015, for rest it pertains to FY 2016

Page 20: Indian Banks · 2016-06-20 · • Indian banking system is dominated by public sector banks. As per latest data, public sector banks accounted for 73.2% in total deposits and 71.6%

Indian Banks – Fixed Income Universe

Issuer TickerCoupon

(%)Maturity

Amount O/s

(USD)

Mid

Price

YTW

(%)Payment Rank

Axis Bank Ltd/Dubai AXSBIN 2.875 6/1/2021 500,000,000.00 99.529 2.98 Sr Unsecured

Axis Bank Ltd/Dubai AXSBIN 3.250 5/21/2020 750,000,000.00 102.078 2.69 Sr Unsecured

Axis Bank Ltd/Dubai AXSBIN 5.125 9/5/2017 750,000,000.00 103.778 1.99 Sr Unsecured

Bank of Baroda/London BOBIN 4.875 7/23/2019 1,000,000,000.00 106.694 2.62 Sr Unsecured

Bank of Baroda/London BOBIN 5.000 8/24/2016 500,000,000.00 100.672 1.56 Sr Unsecured

Bank of India/Jersey BOIIN 3.125 5/6/2020 750,000,000.00 98.754 3.47 Sr Unsecured

Bank of India/London BOIIN 6.250 2/16/2021 500,000,000.00 111.552 3.55 Sr Unsecured

Bank of India/London BOIIN 3.625 9/21/2018 500,000,000.00 101.577 2.90 Sr Unsecured

Canara Bank/London CBKIN 5.250 10/18/2018 500,000,000.00 105.952 2.62 Sr Unsecured

Export-Import Bank of India EXIMBK 3.125 7/20/2021 500,000,000.00 101.232 2.86 Sr Unsecured

Export-Import Bank of India EXIMBK 4.000 1/14/2023 750,000,000.00 104.595 3.22 Sr Unsecured

Export-Import Bank of India EXIMBK 2.750 4/1/2020 500,000,000.00 100.408 2.64 Sr Unsecured

Export-Import Bank of India EXIMBK 4.000 8/7/2017 500,000,000.00 102.435 1.85 Sr Unsecured

Export-Import Bank of India EXIMBK 2.750 8/12/2020 500,000,000.00 100.429 2.64 Sr Unsecured

Export-Import Bank of India EXIMBK 3.875 10/2/2019 500,000,000.00 104.475 2.46 Sr Unsecured

HDFC Bank Ltd/Bahrain HDFCB 3.000 3/6/2018 500,000,000.00 101.364 2.19 Sr Unsecured

HDFC Bank Ltd/Bahrain HDFCB 3.000 11/30/2016 595,000,000.00 100.739 1.40 Sr Unsecured

ICICI Bank Ltd ICICI 6.375 4/30/2022 750,000,000.00 102.075 3.94 Jr Subordinated

Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research

Page 21: Indian Banks · 2016-06-20 · • Indian banking system is dominated by public sector banks. As per latest data, public sector banks accounted for 73.2% in total deposits and 71.6%

Indian Banks – Fixed Income Universe

Issuer TickerCoupon

(%)Maturity

Amount O/s

(USD)

Mid

Price

YTW

(%)Payment Rank

ICICI Bank Ltd/Dubai ICICI 4.000 3/18/2026 700,000,000.00 100.994 3.88 Sr Unsecured

ICICI Bank Ltd/Dubai ICICI 4.700 2/21/2018 1,000,000,000.00 104.121 2.20 Sr Unsecured

ICICI Bank Ltd/Dubai ICICI 4.800 5/22/2019 1,000,000,000.00 106.402 2.53 Sr Unsecured

ICICI Bank Ltd/Dubai ICICI 3.500 3/18/2020 700,000,000.00 102.340 2.84 Sr Unsecured

ICICI Bank Ltd/Dubai ICICI 3.125 8/12/2020 500,000,000.00 101.109 2.84 Sr Unsecured

ICICI Bank Ltd/Dubai ICICI 4.750 11/25/2016 1,000,000,000.00 101.524 1.32 Sr Unsecured

ICICI Bank Ltd/Hong Kong ICICI 5.750 11/16/2020 1,000,000,000.00 111.998 2.84 Sr Unsecured

IDBI Bank Ltd/DIFC Dubai IDBI 3.750 1/25/2019 500,000,000.00 101.485 3.15 Sr Unsecured

IDBI Bank Ltd/DIFC Dubai IDBI 4.375 3/26/2018 500,000,000.00 102.458 2.95 Sr Unsecured

Indian Overseas Bank/HK IOBIN 4.625 2/21/2018 500,000,000.00 102.504 3.09 Sr Unsecured

Indian Overseas Bank/HK IOBIN 5.000 10/19/2016 500,000,000.00 100.936 2.29 Sr Unsecured

State Bank of India/London SBIIN 4.125 8/1/2017 1,250,000,000.00 102.579 1.81 Sr Unsecured

State Bank of India/London SBIIN 3.622 4/17/2019 750,000,000.00 103.687 2.27 Sr Unsecured

State Bank of India/London SBIIN 4.875 4/17/2024 500,000,000.00 110.783 3.30 Sr Unsecured

State Bank of India/London SBIIN 3.250 4/18/2018 1,000,000,000.00 101.992 2.14 Sr Unsecured

Syndicate Bank/London SNDBIN 4.125 4/12/2018 500,000,000.00 102.110 2.93 Sr Unsecured

Syndicate Bank/London SNDBIN 4.750 11/6/2016 500,000,000.00 101.055 2.06 Sr Unsecured

ICICI Bank Ltd/Dubai ICICI 4.000 3/18/2026 700,000,000.00 100.994 3.88 Sr Unsecured

Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research

Page 22: Indian Banks · 2016-06-20 · • Indian banking system is dominated by public sector banks. As per latest data, public sector banks accounted for 73.2% in total deposits and 71.6%

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