India Economics - MacroJunction 20Jan14

8/13/2019 India Economics - MacroJunction 20Jan14

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Macro Junction

Easing inflation opens up options for the RBIModerating inflation levels in December have provided much-

needed comfort to the central bank. CPI at 9.9% vs. 11.2% in Nov

and WPI at 6.2% vs. 7.5% reflect a sharp drop in primary inflation,

which augurs well for the RBIs monetary stance, but core inflation

remains sticky. On rates, while we expect a pause on the 28th

, we

do not rule out one last repo hike this fiscal if core inflation does

not head south. Our chart-of-the-week illustrates the sharp

divergence in between investment rates of major economies that

sowed the seeds of sustainable long-term growth. We started out

well enough in the 2000s, but chronic inflation has taken its toll.

On the global front, World Bank has raised global growth forecastsfrom 2.4% in 2013 to 3.2% in 2014 as it believes growth in the US,

China and Japan will pick up but will be sensitive to potential

turbulence from the slowdown in China and US taper this year.

Dec inflation levels have eased considerably:WPI inflation at 6.16%

was a positive surprise (RCMLe: 7.3%, Cons: 7.1%, Nov: 7.5%), almost

entirely driven by lower primary inflation even as Mfg./Fuel remained

largely stable. Retail inflation tells the same storydown to 9.9% from

11.2% in Nov. Sticky core inflation apart, the sharp dip is good news

and we expect a sustained downward trajectory on inflation

important for rates to come off. We maintain our expectations of a

pause on the 28th, but do not rule out one last uptick on the repo thisfiscal if core inflation does not head south.

World Bank expects better growth going forward:The World Bank

has increased its global growth forecast from 2.4% in 2013 to 3.2% in

2014, as it believes that Europe, US and Japan will pick up but will be

sensitive to potential turbulence from the slowdown in China and US

tapering this year. India is expected to see a strong growth revival

from 4.8% in 2013 to 7.1% in 2016, which will depend on political,

economic, monetary and fiscal conditions. China and Japan are the

only major regions that will see falling growth due to structural

changes in their economic reforms amidst a US taper this year.

ECB issuance picks up marginally: ECB issuance in Nov13 stood at

$2.2bn, implying marginal 13%MoM growth, as the INR depreciated by

~1.6% in Nov against 1.8% appreciation in Oct. On a YoY basis, ECB

issuance was up 62% backed by overseas acquisitions and telecom

investments, but the total for Jan-Nov13 increased merely 3% YoY.

OECD indicator updatefor Nov:The OECD indicator for India has

fallen to 97.71 in Nov from 97.76, indicating that economic recovery

will be prolonged and growth will be slow for now, while China's

figures reflect improvement from 99.40 to 99.51 MoM. Despite the

rupee stabilising, the OECD indicator has dropped for India, suggesting

a macro turnaround has a long way to go (as the turning point in the

indicator tends to precede changes in economic activity by about

six months).

This report has been prepared by Religare Capital Markets Limited or one of its affiliates. Where the report is distributed by Religare Capital Markets(UK) Limited (RCM UK), the firm is an Appointed Representative of Elevation Trading Limited, which is authorised and regula ted by the FinancialConduct Authority in the United Kingdom. For analyst certification and other important disclosures, please refer to the Disclosure and Disclaimer sectionat the end of this report. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered with FINRA regulation and may not be subject to FINRA/NYSErestrictions on communications with covered companies, public appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

Economics

INDIA

20 January 2014

REPORT AUTHORS

Tirthankar Patnaik(91-22) 6766 3446

[email protected]

Prerna Singhvi(91-22) 6766 [email protected]

Saloni Agarwal(91-22) 6766 [email protected]

December inflation has eased considerably

Source: MOSPI, RCML Research

World Bank has raised its growth est.

2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

US 1.8 2.8 2.9 3

China 7.7 7.7 7.5 7.5

Eurozone -0.4 1.1 1.4 1.5

Japan 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.3

India 4.8 6.2 6.6 7.1

World* 2.4 3.2 3.4 3.5

Source: World Bank, RCML Research * Output growth

Rupee continues to trade in upper part of band

Source: Bloomberg, RCML Research

9.9%

6.2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13 Dec-13

(%)CPI WPI

55.0

58.0

61.0

64.0

67.0

70.0

1-Jun 8-Jul 14-Aug 20-Sep 27-Oct 3-Dec 9-Jan


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Easing inflation opens up options for theRBI

Economics

INDIA

20 January 2014 Page 2of 23

Macro estimates

Fig 1 - Key macroeconomic estimates

Year to 31 March FY13 FY14E FY15E Comments

Real Indicators

GDP growth (%) 5.0 4.7 5.3

Growth may have bottomed out but overall business activity remains weak andrecovery could stretch well into FY15. Economic growth is likely to remainbelow-potential on elevated cost of funds until structural issues (directed ruraltransfers, rent-seeking in agri, etc.) are addressed. Estimate FY14 growth at4.7% with some recovery to 5.3% in FY15.

Agriculture growth (%) 1.9 3.6 2.5Bumper southwest monsoon bodes well for agri production in FY14 with ourgrowth estimate at 3.6%. However, the sharp upside in agri sector is unlikely tocontinue into FY15.

Industry growth (%) 2.1 1.6 3.1Industrial growth in FY14 is expected to be the lowest in 22 years, thanks tomuch weaker domestic and global demand. A marginal demand revival and lowbase should help support growth in FY15.

Services growth (%) 7.1 6.4 6.9 A prolonged slowdown would now hurt the Services sector which has hithertobeen comparatively resilient, and it would likely report a sub-7% print in FY14after more than a decade, with meaningful turnaround unlikely in the near term.

External Sector (US$bn)

Trade deficit (196) (156) (172)Sustained hike in import duties and implementation of quantitative-basedrestrictions would result in a 20% decline in trade deficit in FY14. However, apick-up in demand would likely boost imports in FY15.

Current Account Deficit (88) (44) (55)Sharply falling trade deficit along with steady software earnings would likelyresult in much-needed relief on the current account deficit (CAD) in FY14.

% to GDP (4.8) (2.6) (2.8)

External Debt 400 450 470 ECBs (Commercial Borrowings) remain the biggest component of external debt

in India, accounting for ~30% of overall liabilities. Overall levels remaincomfortable vs. peers.% to GDP 21.7 26.2 24.0

Exchange Rate

US$/INR - year end 54.3 62.0 65.0 The INR stabilised towards the latter part of the year on a sharp decline inimports and huge inflows via the central banks forex swap window.Expectations of a strengthened dollar on a potential US recovery along withdomestic growth (imports) revival would keep the INR under pressure in FY15.% depreciation 19.5 1.9 17.9

Monetary Indicators (%YoY)

Money supply 12.4 13.0 13.0 Inflationary pressures are rising and while some near-term relief is expected asfood prices come off, structural problems need addressing to lower inflationbeyond seasonal shifts. Rates therefore are likely to be stronger for longer.Inflation - WPI (Avg.) 7.7 6.5 5.5

Fiscal Indicators (%GDP)

Center's fiscal deficit 4.9 4.8 4.4We expect the Govt. to meet its fiscal target of 4.8% for FY14 led by sharpexpenditure cuts and subsidy deferral, even as tax collections are expected tosurprise negatively. Growth implications to be evident.

State fiscal deficit 2.7 2.7 2.7 Fiscal balances remain a matter of concern given SEB worries.

Source: RCML Research


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Economics

INDIA


Chart of the Week

Investment trends of major economies

Fig 2 - Blast from the Past: Investment growth remains the key for long-term sustainable growth

Source: Datastream, RCML Research


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Macro Junction


Economics

INDIA


Dec WPI/CPI at 6.2%/9.9% YoY

Food getting cheaper; core might follow

Dec WPI inflation at 6.16% was a positive surprise (RCMLe: 7.3%, Cons: 7.1%, Nov:

7.5%), almost entirely driven by lower primary inflation even as Manufacturing/Fuel

have remained largely stable. Retail inflation tells the same story (released on 13 Jan)

down to 9.9% from 11.2% in Nov. Sticky core inflation apart (flat MoM), the sharp

dip is good news, albeit expectedly so

Much as this points to an easing of rates, we expect otherwise and view a sustained

downward trajectory on inflation as important for rates to come-off. We maintain our

expectations of a pause on the 28th

, but do not rule out one last uptick on the repo this

fiscal if core inflation does not head south.

Dec WPI/CPI inflation at 6.2%/9.9%a big positive:Dec WPI inflation came in at6.2% led by sharp relief on Primary inflation, even as Mfg. and Fuel remained stable.

Component-wise: (1) Mfg. inflation (wt. 65%) at 2.64% was a tad lower than our est.

of 2.8% and stood flat MoM, even as core inflation inched up marginally from 2.6%

in Nov to 2.64% in Dec. (2) Fuel & Power (wt.14.9%) declined marginally to 11.0%

(from 11.1% in Nov), led by a drop in LPG prices YoY even as diesel/petrol prices

went up. (3) Primary inflation came in much below expectations, declining sharply

to 10.8% (vs. 15.9% in Nov), thanks to ~30% MoM decline in vegetable prices (onion

prices down 42.4% MoM). Fruit, fibre, minerals and eggs, meat & fish prices also fell

by 6.5%, 3.5%, 3.1% and 1.5% MoM respectively. CPI inflation, released on 13 Jan,

also dropped from 11.16% in Nov to 9.9% in Dec, again driven by vegetable prices.

but core remains sticky: Core inflation remained flat for both the WPI (2.65% vs.2.6% in Nov) as well as the CPI (8.05% vs. 7.97% in Nov), a sticky point in an

otherwise seamless downward trajectory.

Historical revisions continue: The Oct13 WPI figure has been revised up to 7.24%from 7.0% earlier, in line with the trend witnessed over the last few months, while

Nov13 CPI has been revised down to 11.16% from 11.24% earlier.

Falling inflation; falling rates?:We maintain our stancethat its the downwardtrajectory that is relevant going forward as inflationary expectations matter more

than the headline figures. While there could be a pause on the 28th

, we would not

rule out one last hike in rates this fiscal. The theme remains stronger for longer.

Fig 3 - WPI inflation intervals (%)

Wt. Dec-12 Oct-13P Oct-13R Nov-13 Dec-13E Dec-13A

WPI 7.3% 7.0% 7.2% 7.5% 7.3% 6.2%

Primary 20.12 10.6% 14.7% 14.6% 15.9% 15.0% 10.8%

Fuel, Power 14.91 10.2% 10.3 % 10.5% 11.1% 10.8% 11.0%

Mfg. goods 64.97 5.0% 2.5% 2.8% 2.6% 2.8% 2.6%

Source: RCML Research, MOSPI. *P = Previous, R = Revised


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Economics

INDIA


Fig 4 - CPI inflation growth trajectory (%YoY)

ItemsNov-13 Dec-13

Urban Rural Combined Urban Rural Combined

Overall 10.5% 11.7% 11.16% 9.1% 10.5% 9.87%

Food, Beverages and Tobacco 14.3% 14.5% 14.45% 11.0% 12.5% 12.16%

Fuel & Light 5.9% 7.7% 7.00% 5.9% 7.7% 6.98%

Clothing, bedding and footwear 8.6% 9.1% 8.94% 8.6% 9.6% 9.25%

Housing 10.3% NA 10.29% 10.3% NA 10.26%

Miscellaneous 6.9% 6.9% 6.90% 6.8% 7.1% 6.97%

Cereal & products 12.4% 11.8% 12.07% 11.8% 12.3% 12.14%

Vegetables 71.0% 57.0% 61.07% 39.6% 38.4% 38.76%

Transport & Communication 6.9% 7.4% 7.14% 6.7% 7.6% 7.12%

Core CPI 8.5% 7.3% 7.97% 8.4% 7.6% 8.05%

Source: MOSPI, RCML Research

Fig 5 - Primary inflation trend Fig 6 - Manufacturing inflation trend

Source: MOSPI, RCML Research Source: MOSPI, RCML Research

Fig 7 - Fuel and Power inflation trend Fig 8 - Core (non-food manufacturing) inflation trend


10.8%

0.0%

4.0%

8.0%

12.0%

16.0%

20.0%

24.0%

Mar-10 Dec-10 Sep-11 Jun-12 Mar-13 Dec-13

2.6%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%


11.0%

5.0%

7.0%

9.0%

11.0%

13.0%

15.0%

17.0%

19.0%


2.7%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%



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Macro Junction


Economics

INDIA


Fig 9 - CPI and WPI in tandem with each other Fig 10 - WPI inflation provisional vs. revised figures

Source: RCML Research Source: RCML Research

Fig 11 - CPI General Inflation vs. Core inflation Fig 12 - CPI inflation for Food, Beverages & Tobacco

Source: RCML Research Source: RCML Research

Fig 13 - CPI inflation for Fuel & Light Fig 14 - CPI inflation for Clothing, Bedding & Footwear


9.9%

6.2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%


(%)CPI WPI

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%


(%) WPI-New WPI-old

9.87%

8.05%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%


(%)General CPI Core CPI' (%YoY)

12.2%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%


7.0%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%


9.3%

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

13%

14%

Mar-12 Jul-12 Nov-12 Mar-13 Jul-13 Nov-13


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Macro Junction


Economics

INDIA


World Banks Global Economic Prospects

Rich countries to get richer in 2014

The World Bank has increased its global growth forecast from 2.4% in 2013 to 3.2% in

2014, as it believes growth in the US, China and Japan will pick up but will be sensitive

to potential turbulence from the slowdown in China and US taper this year.

High-income nations are expected to grow richer with the World Bank increasing itsgrowth forecast from 1.5% in 2013 to 2.2% in 2014. Developing countries are

expected to pick up from 4.8% in 2013 to 5.3% in 2014, but this is slower than

previously expected due to the cool-off effect from pre-crisis growth levels.

In Asia, growth levels will ease to 7.2% in 2013, due to slower growth in Malaysia,Indonesia and Thailand led by weak commodities and policy tightening. China,

specifically, is expected to remain flat at 7.7% in 2013-14, and grow slower at 7.5%

for the next two years as structural changes in its economy and global financial

conditions will weigh on its investment and export demand. India is expected to see

a major growth revival from 4.8% in 2013 to 6.2%/6.6%/7/1% in 2014/2015/2016, if

fiscal and policy reforms are on track, election uncertainty is ruled out, inflation

levels are contained, and capital inflows remain adequate amidst a US taper.

The growth in developing Europe and Central Asia is expected to strengthen to3.5%/3.7%/3.8% in 2014/2015/2016, as European economies will benefit from

stronger exports, but this will be partly offset by weaker domestic demand due to

ongoing banking sector restructuring, tighter international financial conditions, and

ongoing or planned fiscal consolidation in several countries.

Fig 21 - Global forecasts by international agencies

2011 2012 IMF ** UN *** World Bank ****

2013E 2014E 2013E 2014E 2013E 2014E

US 1.8 2.8 1.6 2.6 1.9 2.6 1.8 2.8

UK 1.1 0.2 1.4 1.9 NA NA NA NA

China 9.3 7.7 7.6 7.3 7.8 7.7 7.7 7.7

Eurozone 1.5 -0.6 -0.4 1 -0.1 1.3 -0.4 1.1

Germany 3.4 0.9 0.5 1.4 NA NA NA NA

Japan -0.6 2 2 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.4

India 6.3 3.2 3.8 5.1 5.5 6.1 4.8 6.2

World* 3.9 3.2 2.9 3.6 2.3 3.1 2.4 3.2

Source: IMF, UN, World Bank * Output growth. ** IMF forecasts as per the W EO released in October 2013. *** Latest forecasts ****Forecasts as of Jan'14

Fig 22 - World Banks growth forecasts for key regions globally

Source: RCML Research *Output growth

1.8

7.7

-0.4

1.7

4.8

2.4

3

7.5

1.5 1.3

7.1

3.5

(1.0)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

US China Eurozone Japan India World

(%)2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E Growth forecast is improving for most

nations over the next four years,

except China and Japan that are seeing

a marginal downtrend towards 2016.

This is due to structural economic

changes and potential impact on flows

amidst a US tapering this year


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Macro Junction


Economics

INDIA


ECB/FCCB approvals at $2.2bn in Nov13

up by a mere 3%YoY in 2013TD

ECB issuance picks up marginally:ECB issuance in Nov13 stood at $2.2bn,implying a marginal 13%MoM growth, as the INR depreciated by ~1.6% in Nov

against 1.8% appreciation in Oct. On a YoY basis, ECB issuance was up 62% backed

by overseas acquisitions and telecom investments, but the total for Jan-Nov13

increased merely 3% YoY.

ECB/FCCB maturity at $5.2bn over FY14: ECBs worth $5.2bn are maturing duringQ4FY14, and FY15 adds another $17bn. The macro slowdown and unrelenting

currency risk could significantly hurt refinancing/payback of these maturing ECBs.

RBI amends ECB norms:The RBI had issued guidelines for Infrastructure sectorliberalisation in 2011, in which it had permitted infrastructure companies in India to

utilise 25% of fresh ECBs for refinancing of rupee loans availed from the domestic

banking system under the Approval Route. The sectors for this purpose include:

1) Energy, 2) Communication, 3) Transportation, 4) Water and sanitation, 5) Mining,

and 6) Social and commercial infrastructure. The RBI decided early this year that

under Transportation, for the purpose of ECB, Maintenance, Repairs and Overhaul

(MRO) will be treated as a part of airport infrastructure.These liberalisation

measures will likely improve capital flows in India, and more such norms are

expected given heavy redemptions in the near term.

Fig 23 - ECB/FCCB inflows by end-use for 2013TD (US$ mn)

End-use 2012TD 2013TD %Share in 2012TD %Share in 2013TD %YoY growth

Refinancing/Buyback 3,389 5,626 11.6% 18.8% 66%Import of Capital Goods 8,775 6,846 30.2% 22.8% -22%

Modernisation/Projects 5,831 4,622 20.0% 15.4% -21%

On-lending 900 1,565 3.1% 5.2% 74%

Overseas Acquisition 351 1,662 1.2% 5.5% 374%

Port/Road/Railways 1,184 810 4.1% 2.7% -32%

Power 4,413 2,629 15.2% 8.8% -40%

Rupee Expenditure Loc CG 4,061 4,035 14.0% 13.5% -1%

Telecommunication 25 669 0.1% 2.2% 2575%

Rest 173 1,505 0.6% 5.0% 771%

Grand Total 29,103 29,968 100.0% 100.0% 3%

Source: RBI, RCML Research

Fig 24 - ECB/FCCB monthly inflow trend Fig 25 - FCCB issuance trending down on weak markets

Source: RBI, RCML Research Source: RBI, RCML Research

2.2

0.0

0.9

1.8

2.7

3.6

4.5

5.4

May-11 Nov-11 May-12 Nov-12 May-13 Nov-13

(US$bn)

(2.0)

3.0

8.0

13.0

18.0

23.0

28.0

33.0

38.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

(US$bn)ECB FCCB


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Macro Junction


Economics

INDIA


OECD Leading Indicator: Update

India remains the sole laggard

India and China:The OECD indicator for India has fallen to 97.71 in Nov from 97.76,indicating that economic recovery will be prolonged and growth will be slow for

now, while Chinasfigures reflect improvement from 99.40 to 99.51 MoM.

Europe:Euro economies continued to perform better economically, though themain contribution comes in from Germany, as France still suffers de-growth. The

OECD indicator for the Eurozone has moved up to 100.84 in Nov from 100.73 in Oct.

Developed nations:US economic conditions are expected to improve as the Fedannounces the start of its tapering program, and this is reflected from a rise in OECD

figures to 100.93 in Nov from 100.82 in Oct. The UK indicator has also improved

from 101.14 to 101.21 in Nov, a growth recovery that is reflected in recent GDP

upgrades by the IMF (0.9% to 1.4% for 2013).

India outlook:Even though inflationary pressures moderated in Dec, productionlevels are still declining, reflecting a continued slowdown in the economy. The

central bank has kept policy rates high to bring inflation to comfortable levels and

ensure adequate liquidity in the system. Despite the rupee stabilising, the OECD

indicator has dropped for India, suggesting a macro turnaround has a long way to go

(as the turning point in the indicator tends to precede changes in economic activity

by about six months).

Fig 28 - CIL readings for major countries

Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13

India 97.98 97.89 97.82 97.76 97.71

China 99.23 99.25 99.31 99.40 99.51

US 100.62 100.68 100.74 100.82 100.93

UK 100.63 100.84 101.02 101.14 101.21

Europe 100.24 100.41 100.58 100.73 100.84


Fig 29 - OECD leading indicator trend


The OECD system of Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs), a qualitative indicator, isdesigned to provide early signals of turning points in business cycles with fluctuations in

economic activity around its long-term potential level.

94

96

98

100

102

104

Feb-05 May-06 Aug-07 Nov-08 Feb-10 May-11 Aug-12 Nov-13

India (normalized) China (normalized) US (normalized)

UK (normalized) EU (Amplitude adj.)


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Macro Junction


Economics

INDIA


Railway revenues improve

Total earnings up 13.3% in FY14TD

Railway revenue earnings up 13.3% YoY: Total railway earnings, as released by theMinistry of Railways, grew by 13.3% YoY to Rs1.0trn in Apr-Dec13, led by modest

growth in freight earnings, but better revenues from passenger and coaches.

Earnings growth in this period is still lower than the 19.6%YoY uptick seen in the

corresponding period last year.

Slower growth in railway freight earnings:Earnings from freight traffic in the Apr-

Dec13 period grew at a lower rate of 10.9% vs. 24.4% in Apr-Dec12. Revenues

earned from both passengers/coaching increased by 20.1%/22.0%YoY on account

of higher passenger fares, but did not compensate for the rising input costs.

Modest decline in rail traffic: Suburban and non-suburban passenger traffic grew

2.1% and -4.0% YoY respectively in Apr-Dec13. Total passengers declinedmarginally by -0.8%YoY.

Fig 30 - Railway revenues for Apr-Dec13

Revenues (Rs bn) Traffic (mn) Freight traffic(mt)Total Freight Passenger Coaching Total passengers Suburban Non-Suburban

Apr-Dec13 1,017 688 276 29 6,360 3,416 2,944 770

Apr-Dec'12 897 620 230 23 6,414 3,347 3,067 735

%YoY 13.3% 10.9% 20.1% 22.0% -0.8% 2.1% -4.0% 4.7%

Source: Ministry of Railways, RCML Research

Fig 31 - Railway freight traffic monthly trend Fig 32 - Railway earnings monthly trend

Source: Ministry of Railways, RCML Research. Source: Ministry of Railways, RCML Research

60

70

80

90

100

Apr-10 Mar-11 Feb-12 Jan-13 Dec-13

(mt)

20

40

60

80

100

120

Apr-10 Mar-11 Feb-12 Jan-13 Dec-13

(Rs.bn) Goods traffic revenue Passenger revenue


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Macro Junction


Economics

INDIA


Macro snippets

RBI revises guidelines for merchanting trade transactions

The RBI released the revised guidelines on Merchant Trade Transactions, in which thetotal period for merchanting trade has been extended to nine months from six months.

Short-term financing for both export and import legs has been enabled and half-yearly

reporting of outstanding merchanting trade by Authorised Dealer Banks prescribed. This

is expected to ensure better monitoring.

Total area sown at 62.6mn hectares on 17 Jan

Total area sown for Rabicrops rose to 62.6mn hectares as on 17 Jan compared to

59.6mn hectares a year ago. Area sown under wheat rose by 6.3%YoY to 31.4mn

hectares while pulses increased 4.6% to 15.6mn hectares. Area sown under oilseeds

rose by 3.1%, and rabi rice also registered an increase. On the other hand, area sown

under coarse cereals declined by 2.5%.

EGoM approves 10% stake sale in IOCL to ONGC and OIL

On 16 Jan, the empowered group of ministers (EGoM) approved the sale of 10% stake in

state refiner Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL) through a block deal on the stock exchanges.

The government will sell its stake to two upstream oil companiesONGC and Oil India

fetching ~Rs50bn.

Gold import tariff value hiked to $407/10gm

After slashing the import tariff value on gold five times in a row, the Central Board of

Excise & Customs on 16 Jan raised this to $407/10gm from $392/10gm earlier. It also

increased the import tariff value on silver to $663/kg from $638/kg.

Service exports fall 2% to $12.3bn in Nov13

Indias service export earnings fell 2%MoM in Nov to $12.3bn, as per the RBIs

provisional aggregate monthly data on Indias international trade in services. Payments

for Indias import of services fell by 12.2% in Nov13 to $6.1bn compared to the

preceding month.

Government defers auction of dated securities to be held on 17 Jan

The finance ministry issued a statement on 15 Jan saying that it had decided to defer the

auction of dated securities amounting to Rs150bn scheduled for 17 Jan. This was done

after reviewing the Govt.scash position and funding requirement, and consulting with

the RBI.


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Macro Junction


Economics

INDIA


Key macro indicators

Average daily LAF borrowing over the last week has risen slightly to Rs404bn. The RBI

has taken several steps to ease liquidity, which include: (1) conducting a 28-day term

repo of Rs100bn on Friday, 17 Jan; and (2) an OMO announcement of Rs100bn for

Wednesday, 22 Jan. The RBI has also deferred the auction of Govt. dated securities of

Rs150bn scheduled for 15 Jan, as its cash position and funding requirements are at

comfortable levels. On rates, our base case remains that of a 25bps hike in Q4, which

we believe would cap the rate cycle (repo at 8%, MSF at 9%). The surprise on rates

needs to be maintainedwe do not expect the central bank to remain restricted to

policy dates for its rate stance. On the 28th

, however, we expect a pause.

Call-money rates rose to 8.25% from 8.19% last week.

Credit-deposit ratio rose to 76.73 from 75.77 a fortnight ago.

Investment-deposit ratio fell to 29.52 from 29.71 a fortnight ago.

Cash-deposit ratio fell to 4.95 from 5.16 a fortnight ago.

FX reserves increased to $293.3bn from $293.1bn a week ago.

Average daily borrowing at LAF increased to Rs404bn from Rs355bn last week.

Fig 33 - Credit and Deposit growth trend Fig 34 - Credit-deposit and Investment-deposit trend

Source: RCML Research, RBI Source: RCML Research, RBI

Fig 35 - Cash-deposit trend Fig 36 - FX reserves growth trend

Source: RBI, RCML Research Source: RBI, RCML Research

8.0%

12.0%

16.0%

20.0%

24.0%

Jun-10 Jan-11 Aug-11 Mar-12 Oct-12 May-13 Dec-13

(%)deposit growth credit growth

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

70

72

74

76

78

80


(%)Credit-Deposit Ratio Investment-Deposit Ratio ( R)

4.95

4

5

6

7

8

9


(%)

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

250

270

290

310

330


(%)(US$bn) Total FX reserves % growth yoy (R)


15/23

Macro Junction


Economics

INDIA


Fig 37 - Broad Money (M3) trend Fig 38 - Narrow Money (M0) growth trend


Fig 39 - Call Money rate trend Fig 40 - LAF borrowing trend


Fig 41 - CP issuance trend Fig 42 - CD issuance trend


11%

12%

13%

14%

15%

16%

17%

18%

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


(%)(Rsbn) M3 M3 growth (R)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17


(%)(Rsbn) Reserve Money (M0) % growth (R)

8.25%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%


(%)

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

Apr-10 Jan-11 Oct-11 Jul-12 Apr-13 Jan-14

(Rs bn) Reverse Repo (L) Repo (R)

+/-1% of NDTL band +/-0.5% of NDTL band

2

5

8

11

14

17

20

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

2400

Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13

(%)(Rsbn)Amount Outstanding (LHS) Low High

3

6

9

12

15

-

800

1,600

2,400

3,200

4,000

4,800


(%)(Rsbn)Amt outstanding (LHS) Low High


16/23

Macro Junction


Economics

INDIA


Markets

Markets across the globe were down last week as US bank earnings disappointed and

investors waited for Chinese economic data that came in today (GDP growth of 7.7% in

2013 vs. official target of 7.5%). EMs were up on firm global stocks that boosted

sentiments, even as disappointing US unemployment data raised investor hopes that

the Fed would not accelerate taper cutsa major source of liquidity in Asian markets.

Domestic indices were largely up last week as inflation eased, providing some comfort

on rates. Sector-wise, Cap Goods and Oil & Gas moved up on expectations of better

earnings, but Telecom was down ~5% after RILs surprise decision to join the bidding

for the upcoming telecom spectrum auction. The rupee continued to appreciate by

~0.6% last week on the back of higher capital flows into the country.

Fig 43 - Key global indices weekly returns Fig 44 - Key domestic indices weekly returns

Source: Datastream, RCML Research Source: Datastream, RCML Research

Fig 45 - Sector-wise weekly return Fig 46 - Institutional fund flow and Sensex

Source: Datastream, RCML Research Source: Datastream, RCML Research

1.5%1.1%

1.9%

0.2%

1.0%

-0.2%-0.4%

-2%

-1%

1%

2%

%

Sensex MSCI IndiaMSCI India($)

MSCI EM MSCI EMAsia

S&P500 Shanghai

1.5% 1.5%

2.4%

1.0%

0.5%

-1.4% -1.4%-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

.

Sensex NIFTY Defty BSE100 BSE500 Midcap Smal l-cap

0.6% 1.2%

2.9%

-0.4%-0.8%

0.9% 0.9%

2.6%

0.0%

-1.6%

-4.8%-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

Auto

Banks

Cap.

Goods

FMCG

Pharma IT

Metals

Oil&Gas

Power

Realty

Telecom

17,000

18,000

19,000

20,000

21,000

22,000

(200)

(100)

0

100

200

300

400

Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14

(US$mn) FII DMF Sensex (R)


17/23

Macro Junction


Economics

INDIA


Fig 47 - INR versus key currencies (1W) Fig 48 - Price of Indian crude oil basket

Source: Bloomberg, RCML Research Source: PPAC, RCML Research

Fig 49 - India equity market volatility Fig 50 - India 10-year G-sec yield (%)

Source: Datastream, RCML Research Source: Bloomberg, RCML Research

0.57

(3.0)

(2.5)

(2.0)

(1.5)

(1.0)

(0.5)

0.0

0.5

1.0

3500

4500

5500

6500

7500

90

100

110

120

130

May-11 Jan-12 Sep-12 May-13 Jan-14

(Rs/bbl)(US$/bbl) India crude basket in US$/bbl (L)

India crude basket in Rs/bbl (R)

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30-Sep 15-Oct 30-Oct 14-Nov 29-Nov 14-Dec 29-Dec 13-Jan

(%)

7.0

7.4

7.8

8.2

8.6

9.0

9.4

6-Jan 6-May 4-Sep 3-Jan 4-May 2-Sep 1-Jan


18/23

Macro Junction


Economics

INDIA


Global marketsIMF Global GDP forecast (%)

2012 2013E 2014E

Developed 1.5 1.2 2.0

Emerging 4.9 4.5 5.1

World 3.2 2.9 3.6

Source: IMF, RCML Research *Note: Updated in Oct13

Fig 51 - Key global indices Weekly returns Fig 52 - Global crude oil prices

Source: RCML Research, Bloomberg. *MSCI indices Source: RCML Research, Bloomberg

Fig 53 - Global and BRIC policy rates Fig 54 - MSCI global equities indices

Source: RCML Research, Datastream Source: RCML Research, Datastream

Fig 55 - Global Commodities Jefferies Index Fig 56 - Inflation across Emerging Markets

Source: RCML Research, Bloomberg Source: RCML Research, Datastream

4.4

2.8

1.6 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.90.7 0.2 0.1

(0.2)(0.2)(0.7)(0.8)(1.0)

(2)

0

2

4

6

ID TH

TWU

K IN

EMAsia

GSCI

CN

KR

World

US

JP

MY

RU

BR

(%)

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

May-11 Jan-12 Sep-12 May-13 Jan-14

(US$/bbl) India crude basket in Rs/bbl

Brent crude in US$/bbl (R)

Oman Crude Oil US$/bbl (R)

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Dec-13

150

200

250

300

350

400

Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Dec-12 Dec-13

(20)(15)

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

15

20


(%) Russia Brazil China IndiaMalaysia Indonesia Thailand

IEA forecasts on global oil demand

(mb/d) 2012 2013E 2014E

America 23.7 23.8 23.7

Europe 13.7 13.5 13.4

Asia 8.6 8.4 8.3

Source: RCML Research, IEA

IIP for major countries

(%) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

US 1.5 2.8 3.2 3.4 3.2

China 9.7 10.4 10.2 10.3 10.0

Europe (2.0) (1.5) 0.2 0.2 -

Germany (1.6) 0.4 0.7 1.1 3.5

Japan 1.8 (0.4) 5.1 5.4 5.0

Source: Bloomberg


19/23

Macro Junction


Economics

INDIA


Macroeconomic snapshotYear to 31 March FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E

National Income Indicators*

Nominal GDP (Rs bn) 21,687 23,483 25,307 28,379 32,422 36,934 42,947 49,871 56,301 64,778 77,953 89,749 1,00,206 1,10,132

Nominal GDP (US$ bn) 475 494 524 618 721 834 948 1,239 1,226 1,366 1,710 1,872 1,839 1,762

Real GDP growth (%) 4.3 5.5 4.0 8.1 7.0 9.5 9.6 9.3 6.7 8.6 9.3 6.2 5.0 4.7

Agriculture growth (%) (0.0) 6.0 (6.6) 9.0 0.2 5.1 4.2 5.8 0.1 0.8 7.9 3.6 1.9 3.6

Industry growth (%) 6.0 2.6 7.2 7.3 9.8 9.7 12.2 9.7 4.4 9.2 9.2 3.5 2.1 1.6

Services growth (%) 5.4 6.9 7.0 8.1 8.1 10.9 10.1 10.3 10.0 10.5 9.8 8.2 7.1 6.4

By Demand* (%YoY)

Private Consumption 3.4 6.0 2.9 5.9 5.2 8.6 8.5 9.4 7.2 7.4 8.6 8.0 4.0 2.5

Public Consumption 1.4 2.4 (0.2) 2.8 4.0 8.9 3.8 9.6 10.4 13.9 5.9 8.6 3.9 4.3

Gross Fixed Capital Form. (1.4) 15.3 (0.4) 10.6 24.0 16.2 13.8 16.2 3.5 6.8 7.5 5.5 1.7 3.8

Cons., Inv., Savings ** (%GDP)

Consumption 77.5 77.6 75.9 73.9 70.1 69.2 68.0 67.3 69.4 69.7 68.7 67.7 68.7 68.7

Gross Capital Formation 24.2 25.7 25.0 25.3 32.5 34.3 35.9 38.0 35.4 35.8 34.8 35.5 35.6 35.6

Gross Domestic Savings 23.8 24.9 25.9 29.0 32.4 33.5 34.6 36.9 32.2 33.7 31.5 30.0 28.5 30.0

Real Indicators (%YoY)

Cement dispatches (domestic) (0.6) 9.8 8.4 5.5 8.5 11.4 9.7 8.0 8.0 10.4 4.5 7.0 9.0 5.0

Commercial vehicle sales (12.3) 5.4 28.0 36.8 25.5 12.4 32.1 6.2 (22.3) 35.4 31.4 18.8 (3.2) 10.0

Car sales (7.5) (5.5) 9.6 34.3 19.4 7.3 20.6 11.5 9.7 26.9 22.4 5.1 (3.7) (2.0)

Two-wheelers (0.8) 15.0 15.9 12.8 16.8 15.1 12.3 (5.0) 4.6 24.5 26.5 15.7 2.4 3.0

Diesel consumption 12.4 9.2 7.8 (2.7) 2.1 5.1 7.0 5.0

Electricity growth (%) 4.2 3.2 3.0 6.1 5.2 4.9 7.5 7.8 2.6 7.9 1.4 8.1 4.0 4.0

Fertilizers growth (%)*** 0.5 (4.4) 1.6 (2.6) 8.1 (0.4) (11.5) 5.9 0.3 14.0 3.1 0.2 8.1 6.0

Urea growth (%)*** (0.7) (3.4) (2.0) 2.3 6.3 (0.8) 0.9 (2.1) 0.4 6.0 3.6 0.6 2.6 1.0

Rest of fertilizers growth (%)*** 4.3 4.2 4.4 4.1 4.2 4.2 3.4 3.9 3.9 4.4 4.3 4.3 9.1 4.0

Aviation passenger km (%)***** 7.6 (5.9) 10.9 13.5 23.8 31.4 41.5 24.5 (11.2) 18.4 20.7 11.7 (5.9) (10.0)

Crude Steel growth (%) 4.8 4.0 8.0 28.2 12.2 7.0 9.4 6.0 1.2 20.8 5.7 na 5.4 4.0

Coal Dispatches**** 203 211 304 235 333 350 375 401 415 516 527 465 470

Port traffic - Import growth(%)***** (1.8) 0.1 4.9 7.5 10.9 13.5 9.8 10.8 3.7 12.2 2.2 3.3 2.7 2.0

Port traffic - Export growth(%)***** 16.9 7.8 18.6 11.9 13.3 4.3 7.2 12.5 1.1 0.4 0.7 (8.8) (9.2) 2.0

External Sector (%YoY)Exports (US$ bn) 44 44 53 64 84 103 126 163 183 178 251 303 307 322

%YoY 20.1 (0.4) 20.2 20.9 30.7 23.4 22.5 29.1 12.3 (2.6) 40.6 20.9 1.1 5.2

Imports (US$ bn) 50 49 62 78 111 149 185 250 299 288 369 488 502 478

%YoY 0.5 (3.0) 26.7 27.1 42.5 33.8 24.1 35.0 19.8 (3.9) 28.4 32.2 2.8 (4.8)

Trade deficit (US$ bn) (6) (5) (9) (14) (28) (46) (59) (87) (116) (109) (119) (185) (196) (156)

Invisibles (US$ bn) 9.8 15.0 17.0 27.8 31.2 42.0 52.2 75.7 91.6 80.0 84.6 111.6 108 111

Current Account Deficit (US$ bn) (2.7) 3.4 6.3 14.1 (2.5) (6.9) (9.6) (15.7) (27.9) (38.2) (45.9) (78.2) (88) (44)

% to GDP (0.6) 0.7 1.2 2.3 (0.3) (0.8) (1.0) (1.3) (2.3) (2.8) (2.7) (4.2) (4.8) (2.6)

Forex Assets (ex. gold) (US$ bn) 39.6 48.1 71.9 107.5 135.6 144.8 191.9 299.2 241.4 259.7 278.9 264.5 260 55.6

Months of imports 9.5 11.9 14.0 16.5 14.6 11.7 12.4 14.4 9.7 10.8 9.1 6.5 6.2 3.2

External Debt (US$ bn) 101.3 98.8 104.9 111.6 133.0 138.1 172.4 224.4 224.5 260.9 305.9 345.8 390 450

Short Term debt (US$ bn) 3.6 2.7 4.7 4.4 17.7 19.5 28.1 45.7 43.3 52.3 65.0 78.2 97 25

Exchange Rate

US$/INR - annual avg 45.6 47.6 48.3 45.9 44.9 44.3 45.3 40.2 45.9 47.4 45.6 47.9 54.5 62.5% depreciation 7.0 4.3 1.6 (4.9) (2.1) (1.5) 2.3 (11.1) 14.1 3.3 (3.9) 5.2 13.7 14.7

US$/INR - year end 46.7 48.3 48.0 45.6 43.5 45.1 44.2 39.4 48.4 46.6 44.6 53.3 54.3 62.0

% depreciation 4.8 3.4 (0.6) (4.9) (4.7) 3.7 (2.1) (10.8) 22.7 (3.6) (4.3) 19.5 1.9 14.2

Monetary Indicators (%YoY)

Money supply 16.8 14.1 14.7 16.8 12.3 21.2 21.3 21.4 19.3 16.9 16.1 13.2 12.4 13.0

Inflation - WPI (Avg) 7.1 3.6 3.4 5.5 6.5 4.5 6.6 4.7 8.1 3.8 9.6 8.9 7.4 6.5

CPI (Avg) 3.8 4.3 4.0 3.9 3.8 4.4 6.7 6.2 9.1 12.4 10.5 9.0 10.2 9.0

Bank credit growth 16.6 11.4 26.6 16.0 26.2 38.0 28.1 22.3 17.5 16.9 21.5 17.0 14.6 14.0

Deposit growth 16.2 25.2 11.6 23.7 19.0 25.4 16.7 15.0 16.7 26.2 21.2 11.8 13.0 13.5

Fiscal Indicators (%GDP)

Center's fiscal deficit (5.5) (6.0) (5.7) (4.3) (3.9) (4.0) (3.3) (2.5) (6.0) (6.4) (4.9) (5.7) (4.9) (4.8)

State fiscal deficit (4.1) (4.1) (3.9) (4.3) (3.2) (2.3) (1.7) (1.7) (2.5) (3.0) (2.7) (2.3) (2.7) (2.7)

Combined deficit (Center + State) (9.6) (10.1) (9.7) (8.6) (7.1) (6.3) (5.0) (4.3) (8.5) (9.5) (7.6) (8.2) (7.6) (7.5)

Source: CMIE, RBI, CSO, RCML Research* At constant price ** At current prices ***Government Estimates for FY13 ****Only for CIL *****CMIE Estimates


20/23

Macro Junction


Economics

INDIA


Balance of Payments snapshotUS$ bn FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E

Current Account

Exports 251 303 307 322 342%YoY 40.6% 20.9% 1.1% 5.2% 6.1%

Imports 369 488 502 478 515

%YoY 28.4% 32.2% 2.8% -4.8% 7.6%

Trade balance (RBI) (131) (190) (196) (156) (172)

%GDP -7.6% -10.1% -10.6% -9.1% -8.8%

Software Earnings 56.8 61.0 63.5 67.1 70.4

%YoY 17.8% 7.3% 4.2% 5.6% 5.0%

Remittances 53.4 63.5 64.3 64.5 67.1

%YoY 2.5% 18.9% 1.4% 0.3% 4.0%

Rest (25.5) (12.8) (20.4) (20.2) (20.0)

Invisibles Total 85 112 107 111 118%YoY 5.8% 31.8% -3.7% 3.6% 5.5%

Current Acc. Balance (46) (78) (88) (44) (55)

%GDP -2.7% -4.2% -4.8% -2.6% -2.8%

Capital Account

Loans 27.9 19.3 31.1 18.3 19.3

ECBs 12.5 10.3 8.5 6.4 6.7

Short-term Loans 11.0 6.7 21.7 10.8 11.4

Rest of loans 4.36 2.30 0.98 1.08 1.24

NRI deposits 3.2 11.9 14.8 25.0 15.0

Foreign investments 37.4 39.2 46.7 13.7 26.0

%YoY -22.3% 4.8% 19.1% -70.6% 89.8%

FDI 7.14 22.06 19.82 12.21 11.23

FII 30.29 17.17 26.89 1.50 14.80

Capital Account 60 68 89 56 58

%YoY 18.6% 13.4% 31.8% -37.7% 4.1%

%GDP 3.5% 3.6% 4.8% 3.2% 3.0%

Balance of Payments 11 (13) 3.83 11.22 2.98

USDINR (end of year) 45.6 47.9 54.3 64.0 62.0

Source: RBI, RCML Research *Note numbers have been revised


21/23

Macro Junction


Economics

INDIA


Fiscal budget snapshot(Rsbn) FY13 %YoY FY14BE %YoY FY14E %YoY FY15E %YoY

Central govt. net tax revenue 7,411 17.7% 8,841 19.3% 8,338 12.5% 9,883 18.5%

Of which -Income Tax 1,968 15.6% 2,476 25.8% 2,362 20.0% 2,835 20.0%

Corporate Tax 3,563 10.4% 4,195 17.7% 3,991 12.0% 4,589 15.0%

Custom Duties 1,658 11.0% 1,873 13.0% 1,791 8.0% 2,024 13.0%

Excise Duties 1,759 20.8% 1,976 12.3% 1,759 0.0% 2,005 14.0%

Service Tax 1,325 35.9% 1,801 35.9% 1,656 25.0% 2,236 35.0%

Other Taxes 93 161.5% 37 -60.3% 100 7.0% 100 0.0%

States and UTs' share (2,915) 14.1% (3,470) 19.0% (3,273) 12.3% (3,861) 17.9%

NCCD transferred to the NationalCalamity/Disaster Funds

(41) 2.8% (48) 16.8% (48) 16.8% (45) -6.3%

Non-tax revenue 1,377 13.2% 1,723 25.1% 1,670 21.3% 1,893 13.3%

Central govt. revenue receipts 8,788 -36.4% 10,563 20.2% 10,008 13.9% 11,776 17.7%

Non-debt Capital Receipts 407 10.3% 665 63.2% 484 18.7% 534 10.3%

Divestment Proceeds 259 43.1% 558 115.6% 350 35.2% 400 14.3%

Total Receipts 9,195 -35.2% 11,228 22.1% 10,491 14.1% 12,310 17.3%

Non-plan Expenditure 9,951 11.6% 11,100 11.5% 11,068 11.2% 11,704 5.8%

Of which Capital Expenditure 822 2.9% 1,171 42.3% 1,013 23.1% 1,135 12.1%

Of which Revenue Expenditure 9,129 12.4% 9,929 8.8% 10,055 10.1% 10,569 5.1%

Subsidy outgo 2,577 18.2% 2,311 -10.3% 2,601 1.0% 2,800 7.6%

Food 850 16.7% 900 5.9% 1,050 23.5% 1,000 -4.8%

Fertilizers 660 -5.8% 660 0.0% 700 6.1% 800 14.3%

Oil 969 41.5% 650 -32.9% 750 -22.6% 850 13.3%

Others 98 48.0% 101 3.2% 101 3.2% 150 48.3%

Plan Expenditure 4,143 0.5% 5,553 34.0% 4,923 18.8% 6,048 22.8%

Of which Capital Expenditure 849 8.0% 1,121 32.0% 974 14.8% 1,192 22.3%

Of which Revenue Expenditure 3,294 -1.3% 4,433 34.6% 3,949 19.9% 4,856 23.0%

Total Expenditure 14,094 8.1% 16,653 18.2% 15,991 13.5% 17,752 11.0%

Fiscal Deficit (4,899) -530.6% (5,425) 10.7% (5,499) 12.3% (5,442) -1.0%

Revenue Deficit (3,635) (3,798) (3,996) (3,649)

Primary Deficit (1,779) (1,718) (1,793) (1,736)

Nominal GDP 1,00,206 11.7% 1,13,719 13.5% 1,13,719 13.5% 1,24,321 9.3%

Fiscal Deficit/GDP 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.4

Revenue Deficit/GDP 3.6 3.3 3.5 2.9

Primary Deficit/GDP 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.4Source: India Budget documents, CGA, RCML Research


22/23

Macro Junction


Economics

INDIA


Previous reports

Fig 57 - RCML Economics and Strategy Reports over the last month

Date Title

15-Jan-13 Dec WPI/CPI at 6.2%/9.9% YoY - Food getting cheaper; core might follow

13-Jan-13 Macro Junction -Inflation to be the key this week

10-Jan-14 IIP dips 2.1%YoY in Nov13dragging FY14TD growth below zero (-0.2%)

10-Jan-14 Dec13 trade deficit stable at $10.1bn - Exports revival key for sustained relief

7-Jan-14 India Strategy: Q3FY14 Earnings Preview -Margin expansion to drive profitability

6-Jan-14 Macro Junction - Happy New Year!

6-Jan-14 India Strategy & Economics:India in 2014 - Caveat emptor!

2-Jan-14 Dec Mfg. PMI decelerates but makes it above 50

Source: RCML Research
http://research.religarecm.com/INDIA/India%20Economics%20-%20Dec%20Inflation%2015Jan14.pdfhttp://research.religarecm.com/INDIA/India%20Economics%20-%20Dec%20Inflation%2015Jan14.pdfhttp://research.religarecm.com/INDIA/India%20Economics%20-%20Dec%20Inflation%2015Jan14.pdfhttp://research.religarecm.com/INDIA/India%20Economics%20-%20MacroJunction%2013Jan14.pdfhttp://research.religarecm.com/INDIA/India%20Economics%20-%20MacroJunction%2013Jan14.pdfhttp://research.religarecm.com/INDIA/India%20Economics%20-%20MacroJunction%2013Jan14.pdfhttp://research.religarecm.com/INDIA/India%20Economics%20-%20Nov13%20IIP%2010Jan14.pdfhttp://research.religarecm.com/INDIA/India%20Economics%20-%20Nov13%20IIP%2010Jan14.pdfhttp://research.religarecm.com/INDIA/India%20Economics%20-%20DecTrade%20Balance%2010Jan14.pdfhttp://research.religarecm.com/INDIA/India%20Economics%20-%20DecTrade%20Balance%2010Jan14.pdfhttp://research.religarecm.com/INDIA/India%20Strategy%20-%20Q3FY14%20Earnings%20Preview%207Jan14.pdfhttp://research.religarecm.com/INDIA/India%20Strategy%20-%20Q3FY14%20Earnings%20Preview%207Jan14.pdfhttp://research.religarecm.com/INDIA/India%20Economics%20-%20MacroJunction%206Jan14.pdfhttp://research.religarecm.com/INDIA/India%20Economics%20-%20MacroJunction%206Jan14.pdfhttp://research.religarecm.com/INDIA/India%20Strat%20Macro%20Year%20Ahead%206Jan14.pdfhttp://research.religarecm.com/INDIA/India%20Strat%20Macro%20Year%20Ahead%206Jan14.pdfhttp://research.religarecm.com/INDIA/India%20Economics%20-%20Global%20PMI%202Jan14.pdfhttp://research.religarecm.com/INDIA/India%20Economics%20-%20Global%20PMI%202Jan14.pdfhttp://research.religarecm.com/INDIA/India%20Economics%20-%20Global%20PMI%202Jan14.pdfhttp://research.religarecm.com/INDIA/India%20Economics%20-%20Global%20PMI%202Jan14.pdfhttp://research.religarecm.com/INDIA/India%20Strat%20Macro%20Year%20Ahead%206Jan14.pdfhttp://research.religarecm.com/INDIA/India%20Economics%20-%20MacroJunction%206Jan14.pdfhttp://research.religarecm.com/INDIA/India%20Strategy%20-%20Q3FY14%20Earnings%20Preview%207Jan14.pdfhttp://research.religarecm.com/INDIA/India%20Economics%20-%20DecTrade%20Balance%2010Jan14.pdfhttp://research.religarecm.com/INDIA/India%20Economics%20-%20Nov13%20IIP%2010Jan14.pdfhttp://research.religarecm.com/INDIA/India%20Economics%20-%20MacroJunction%2013Jan14.pdfhttp://research.religarecm.com/INDIA/India%20Economics%20-%20Dec%20Inflation%2015Jan14.pdf


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