India Economics · 2019-11-24 · Upasana Chachra +91 22 6720 4355 [email protected] 21...

Please refer to page 14 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website

www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.

INDIA

Key data releases (Jan-18 vs Dec-17)

Source: CEIC, GoI, Macquarie Research, February 2018

*IP current month is Dec-17 and previous is Nov-17

#CAD current is for QE Sep-17, previous is QE Jun-17

Analyst(s) Upasana Chachra+91 22 6720 4355 [email protected]

21 February 2018 Macquarie Capital Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd.

India Economics Macro data round-up – domestic demand remains healthy In this monthly publication we endeavour to provide a one-stop shop for all key

macro data releases in the month, along with a chart pack of key macro

indicators to track.

Growth indicators: Cyclical recovery in domestic demand

Domestic demand indicators fared better than external demand: High

frequency domestic demand indicators continue to show healthy growth in the

last three months suggesting that growth recovery is gathering momentum.

Consumption indicators such as car sales, petrol consumption, retail loan

growth and air passenger traffic accelerated in Jan

Manufacturing indicators remained robust – IP growth for Dec was above

expectations. PMI manufacturing for Jan remained above 50 for the sixth

consecutive months, but it moderated from the five-year high reached in

Dec. Cement production growth remained in double digits for the second

consecutive month. Light commercial vehicle sales growth accelerated to

the highest since Mar-2010.

Services indicators too improved – PMI services expanded in Jan, while

other indicators such as rail and sea port cargo continued to improve.

Export growth slows in Jan: Export growth slipped to single digits in Jan,

growing by 9.1% YoY (vs. 12.5% YoY in Dec). Lacklustre non \-commodity

export growth mainly caused the slowdown in growth – with segments such

as gems & jewellery, textiles, electronic goods contributing to the slowdown.

Macro stability: Widening at the margin

Trade deficit widens to a 56-month high: The trade deficit widened to

US$16.3bn (8.1% of GDP annualised) in Jan from US$14.8bn (7.4% of GDP

annualised) in Dec as imports rose faster than exports. The higher than expected

trade deficit in Jan puts upward pressure on the current account deficit for

FY18 – we expect the CAD to widen to 1.8-2% of GDP vs. our earlier estimate

of 1.6% of GDP in FY18.

Inflation moderated in Jan, but CPI still above the 5% mark: Jan CPI

moderated to 5.1% (5.2% in Dec) with food prices decelerating. Jan WPI

inflation decelerated to 2.8% from 3.6% in Dec, with both food and non-food

segments moderating.

Outlook

Gradual recovery keeping macro stability in check: We expect the growth

recovery to gradually gather pace, and we expect GDP growth at 7.2% in

FY19e from 6.7% in FY18e. We expect consumption, public capex and

exports to be the main drivers even as private capex remains in repair mode.

Inflation is expected to edge higher until Jun-18, partly due to a low base.

We expect the RBI to take into the account the idiosyncratic factors impacting

inflation and a still-nascent growth recovery, which should keep the central

bank on hold. Pls see the following pages for heat map tables and charts.

http://www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures

http://www.hibor.com.cn/

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Macquarie Research India Economics

21 February 2018 2

High frequency growth indicators and macro stability indictors

Fig 1 High frequency growth data (green highlight is top 10 percentile and red highlight is bottom 10 percentile)

Source: CEIC, PPAC, RBI, Macquarie Research, February 2018

Fig 2 High frequency macro stability indicators (red highlight is top 10 percentile and green highlight is bottom 10 percentile – i.e. green shows improvement in macro stability, red shows deterioration in macro stability)

Source: CEIC, Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, February 2018



21 February 2018 3

Growth Indicators

A. Industrial Production Trend in IP (YoY%, YoY% 3MMA)

Industrial production rose 7.1% in Jan: This compares to a

growth of 8.8% in Nov. On a seasonally adjusted sequential

basis, the IP index declined by 2.4% compared to growth of

6.3% MoM in Nov. Nominal IP growth (adjusted for non-food

WPI) remained on an uptrend on a trailing three month

average basis. While growth of capital goods and electricity

production improved, growth of manufacturing, mining,

construction and consumer goods production slowed in Dec.

On a three-month trailing basis, growth accelerated to 6% in

Dec vs. 5.0% for the three months ending Nov.

Source: CEIC, Macquarie Research, February 2018

B. Export Growth Trend in export growth

Export growth slips to single-digit levels: Export growth

slowed to 9.1%YoY in Jan from 12.5% YoY in Dec. The

slowdown in exports was mainly attributable to a poorer

performance in non-commodity exports. While commodity

export growth rose to 23.9% in Jan (21.6% in Dec), non-

commodity export growth decelerated to 4.6% (from 9.8% in

Dec). Within non-commodity exports, the slowdown was

attributable to a weaker trend in exports of gems & jewellery,

textiles, leather, electronic goods and engineering goods.

We will be closely watching the trend in non-commodity

exports as despite a healthy global growth environment, non-

commodity exports have remained volatile, in part due to the

lingering impact of GST-related disruptions (i.e. issues of tax

credit refunds have impacted exporters’ working capital).


C. Import Growth Trend in import growth

Import growth accelerated to an eight-month high in Jan:

Import growth accelerated to 26.1%YoY in Jan from 21% YoY

in Dec, led by higher oil and non-oil non-gold imports. Gold

imports declined on a YoY basis.

Oil import growth accelerated on YoY and sequential monthly

bases reflecting in part the impact of trailing higher oil prices.

Non-oil non-gold import growth accelerated in Jan with the

volatile capital goods imports accelerating. Commodity imports

such as imports of edible oils, coal, coke, and metalliferous

ores rose. Amongst other segments imports of chemicals and

related products, rubber/tin, iron and steel rose.

Gold imports declined on YoY and sequential bases in Jan,

with the monthly run rate slowing to US$1.6bn in Jan from

approx. US$3.2bn in the last two months. .


-1%

1%

3%

5%

7%

9%

No

v-1

3

Ma

y-1

4

No

v-1

4

Ma

y-1

5

No

v-1

5

Ma

y-1

6

No

v-1

6

Ma

y-1

7

No

v-1

7

YoY%

YoY% 3MMA



21 February 2018 4

Macro Stability Indicators

A. CPI Trend in CPI

CPI inflation slowed to 5.1% January: This compared to

5.2% in December and was in line with our and consensus

expectations of 5.1%. The adverse base effect is expected to

keep inflation in the elevated range. On a sequential basis,

food prices declined in Jan while fuel prices rose. Indeed,

core CPI (ex food, fuel, petrol and diesel) was steady at 5.3%,

while core ex housing decelerated marginally, reflecting the

statistical impact of the house rent allowance increase (as part

of the 7th pay commission).


B. WPI Trend in WPI

Jan WPI inflation moderated to a six-month low: Jan WPI

inflation decelerated to 2.8% from 3.6% in Dec. The

deceleration in inflation was led by lower prices of food, while

core inflation measures rose.

Food inflation slowed to 1.6% YoY in Jan from 3% YoY in Dec

led by lower prices of pulses and vegetables. Fuel inflation

slowed on a YoY basis, while it rose on a sequential basis.

Non-food non-fuel inflation accelerated to 3.2% in Jan from

2.9% in Dec, mainly due to higher global commodity prices.

Core inflation (manufactured non-food index) also rose to

3.5% in Jan from 3.2% in Dec.


C. Trade Deficit Trend in trade deficit

Trade deficit widens to a 56-month high: The trade deficit

widened to US$16.3bn (8.1% of GDP annualised) in Jan from

US$14.9bn (7.4% of GDP annualised) in Dec as imports rose

faster than exports. On a YoY basis, the trade deficit rose by

64.6% YoY in Jan from 40.5% in Dec. The higher commodity

prices are being reflected in a higher trade deficit, which has

risen to 6.4% of GDP on a 12-month trailing basis vs. 4.5 of

GDP for 12 months ending Jan-17.

The higher than expected trade deficit in Jan puts upward

pressure on the current account deficit for FY18 – we expect

the CAD to widen to 2% of GDP vs. our earlier estimate of

1.6% of GDP.


更多资料欢迎微信：zsxf2017



21 February 2018 5

Growth Indicators

Fig 3 Passenger vehicle sales improved in Jan Fig 4 Two-wheeler sales moderated in Jan

Source: CEIC, Macquarie Research, February 2018 Source: CEIC, Macquarie Research, February 2018

Fig 5 Light CV sales performed better than M&H in Jan Fig 6 Trend in industrial production growth improving


Fig 7 PMI (mfg) rose to a five-year high Fig 8 Trend in core industries – Cement production

remains in double digit for second month in a row

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, February 2018 Source: CEIC, Macquarie Research, February 2018



21 February 2018 6

Fig 9 Trend in rail freight Fig 10 Trend in seaport cargo


Fig 11 Trend in air cargo Fig 12 Trend in air passenger traffic


Fig 13 Trend in foreign tourist arrivals Fig 14 Telecom subscribers


-15%

-11%

-7%

-3%

1%

5%

9%

13%

17%

21%

De

c-1

1

De

c-1

2

De

c-1

3

De

c-1

4

De

c-1

5

De

c-1

6

De

c-1

7

YoY%

YoY% 3MMA

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

De

c-1

1

De

c-1

2

De

c-1

3

De

c-1

4

De

c-1

5

De

c-1

6

De

c-1

7

YoY% YoY% 3MMA

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Ja

n-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

YoY% YoY% 3MMA

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

900

950

1000

1050

1100

1150

1200

1250

De

c-1

5

Mar-

16

Ju

n-1

6

Sep

-16

De

c-1

6

Mar-

17

Ju

n-1

7

Sep

-17

De

c-1

7

Subscribers (mn) YoY%, RS




21 February 2018 7

Fig 15 Trend in export and import growth Fig 16 Commodity vs. non-commodity exports


Fig 17 Import growth by key segments Fig 18 Trend in capital goods imports


Fig 19 Trend in export market share Fig 20 Export growth influences IP

Source: CEIC, WTO, Macquarie Research, February 2018 Source: CEIC, Macquarie Research, February 2018

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Ja

n-1

5

Ju

l-15

Ja

n-1

6

Ju

l-16

Ja

n-1

7

Ju

l-17

Ja

n-1

8

Exports ImportsYoY%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

Ja

n-1

5

Mar-

15

May-1

5

Ju

l-15

Sep

-15

No

v-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Mar-

16

May-1

6

Ju

l-16

Sep

-16

No

v-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Mar-

17

May-1

7

Ju

l-17

Sep

-17

No

v-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

Commodity exports

Non commodity exports

YoY%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

400%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Ja

n-1

6

Ju

l-16

Ja

n-1

7

Ju

l-17

Ja

n-1

8

Oil Imports

Non-oil non-gold Imports

Gold Imports, RS

YoY%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%Ja

n-1

6

Ju

l-16

Ja

n-1

7

Ju

l-17

Ja

n-1

8

YoY% YoY% 3MMA

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

2.0%

De

c-0

7

Ju

n-0

8

De

c-0

8

Ju

n-0

9

De

c-0

9

Ju

n-1

0

De

c-1

0

Ju

n-1

1

De

c-1

1

Ju

n-1

2

De

c-1

2

Ju

n-1

3

De

c-1

3

Ju

n-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ju

n-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ju

n-1

6

De

c-1

6

Ju

n-1

7

De

c-1

7

6M trailing 12M trailing

Some improvement inmarket share in 2017

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

De

c-1

3

Ju

n-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ju

n-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ju

n-1

6

De

c-1

6

Ju

n-1

7

De

c-1

7

Nominal IP (Non FoodWPI), YoY% 3MMA

Exports, YoY% 3MMA,RS



21 February 2018 8

Macro Stability Indicators – Price Stability

Fig 21 Trend in CPI inflation Fig 22 Trend in WPI inflation


Fig 23 WPI seasonally adjusted vs. WPI YoY Fig 24 Global commodity prices vs. Non-food WPI

Source: CEIC, Macquarie Research, February 2018 Source: CEIC, Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, February 2018

Fig 25 Trend in global commodity prices (YoY%) Fig 26 Trend in global commodity prices (Indexed)

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, February 2018 Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, February 2018

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Ja

n-1

2

Ju

l-12

Ja

n-1

3

Ju

l-13

Ja

n-1

4

Ju

l-14

Ja

n-1

5

Ju

l-15

Ja

n-1

6

Ju

l-16

Ja

n-1

7

Ju

l-17

Ja

n-1

8

Headline CPI inflation

Core CPI Inflation (CPI ex Food exFuel)

CPI Food inflation

YoY%

-9%

-6%

-3%

0%

3%

6%

9%

Ja

n-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

WPI Inflation

Food (primary plus mfg) inflation

Non-food WPI inflation

YoY%

-10%

-6%

-2%

2%

6%

10%

Apr-

13

Ju

l-13

Oct-

13

Ja

n-1

4

Apr-

14

Ju

l-14

Oct-

14

Ja

n-1

5

Apr-

15

Ju

l-15

Oct-

15

Ja

n-1

6

Apr-

16

Ju

l-16

Oct-

16

Ja

n-1

7

Apr-

17

Ju

l-17

Oct-

17

Ja

n-1

8

Apr-

18

Ju

l-18

WPI, YoY%

WPI SA MoM annualized, 6MMA pushedfwd by 6months

-10%

-8%

-5%

-3%

0%

3%

5%

8%

10%

13%

15%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Ja

n-0

7

Ja

n-0

8

Ja

n-0

9

Ja

n-1

0

Ja

n-1

1

Ja

n-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

CRB Commodity Non food WPI Inflation, RSYoY% YoY%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Fe

b-0

5

Fe

b-0

6

Fe

b-0

7

Fe

b-0

8

Fe

b-0

9

Fe

b-1

0

Fe

b-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Feb

-16

Fe

b-1

7

Fe

b-1

8

Brent (YoY%) CRB Commodity (YoY%)

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Feb

-14

May-1

4

Aug

-14

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

May-1

5

Aug

-15

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

May-1

6

Aug

-16

No

v-1

6

Feb

-17

May-1

7

Aug

-17

No

v-1

7

Feb

-18

Brent, RS CRB Food CRB Commodity

Indexed Jan 2014=100




21 February 2018 9

Fig 27 Trend in high frequency food prices Fig 28 Trend in rural wage growth

Source: Dept. of Consumer Affairs, Macquarie Research, February 2018 Source: CEIC, Macquarie Research, February 2018

Fig 29 Trend in MSP vs. food inflation Fig 30 Farmers terms of trade

Source: CEIC, Macquarie Research, February 2018 * CPI food inflation estimated for FY18


Fig 31 Household inflation expectations Fig 32 CPI inflation outlook


-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2016 2017 5 Y avg 2018

High frequency food prices (MoM%)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

No

v-0

5

No

v-0

6

No

v-0

7

No

v-0

8

No

v-0

9

No

v-1

0

No

v-1

1

No

v-1

2

No

v-1

3

No

v-1

4

No

v-1

5

No

v-1

6

No

v-1

7

Rural Farm Wages Total Rural Wages

YoY% 3MMA

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

FY

04

FY

05

FY

06

FY

07

FY

08

FY

09

FY

10

FY

11

FY

12

FY

13

FY

14

FY

15

FY

16

FY

17

FY

18*

MSP increase (average all crops) CPI food inflationYoY%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%N

ov-1

4

May-1

5

No

v-1

5

May-1

6

No

v-1

6

May-1

7

No

v-1

7

WPI ToT YoY%3MMA

* Index constructured using WPI Food to WPI non Food

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

De

c-0

6

Ju

n-0

7

De

c-0

7

Ju

n-0

8

De

c-0

8

Ju

n-0

9

De

c-0

9

Ju

n-1

0

De

c-1

0

Ju

n-1

1

De

c-1

1

Ju

n-1

2

De

c-1

2

Ju

n-1

3

De

c-1

3

Ju

n-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ju

n-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ju

n-1

6

De

c-1

6

Ju

n-1

7

De

c-1

7

Inflation Expectations - 3MAhead

Inflation Expectations - 12MAhead

12M Trailing CPI

8%

6%

5%

4%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Mar-

12

Ju

l-12

No

v-1

2

Mar-

13

Ju

l-13

No

v-1

3

Mar-

14

Ju

l-14

No

v-1

4

Mar-

15

Ju

l-15

No

v-1

5

Mar-

16

Ju

l-16

No

v-1

6

Mar-

17

Ju

l-17

No

v-1

7

Mar-

18

Ju

l-18

No

v-1

8

Mar-

19

CPI Core CPI RBI's glide path

Forecasts



21 February 2018 10

Macro Stability Indicators – External Stability

Fig 33 Trend in trade deficit Fig 34 Trend in current account deficit


Fig 35 Trend in external debt Fig 36 Trend in net international investment position


Fig 37 Trend in FX reserves Fig 38 Trend in import cover


-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

-18,000

-16,000

-14,000

-12,000

-10,000

-8,000

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

Jan

-15

Jul-1

5

Jan

-16

Jul-1

6

Jan

-17

Jul-1

7

Jan

-18

Trade Balance, US$ mn, LS

Monthly Trade balance (% of GDPannualised), RS

-8%

-7%

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

-35000

-30000

-25000

-20000

-15000

-10000

-5000

0

Mar-

12

Sep

-12

Mar-

13

Sep

-13

Mar-

14

Sep

-14

Mar-

15

Sep

-15

Mar-

16

Sep

-16

Mar-

17

Sep

-17

US$ mn, LS

% of GDP, RS

Current account balanceQuarterly annualised

15.0%

16.0%

17.0%

18.0%

19.0%

20.0%

21.0%

22.0%

23.0%

24.0%

25.0%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Sep

-07

Mar-

08

Sep

-08

Mar-

09

Sep

-09

Mar-

10

Sep

-10

Mar-

11

Sep

-11

Mar-

12

Sep

-12

Mar-

13

Sep

-13

Mar-

14

Sep

-14

Mar-

15

Sep

-15

Mar-

16

Sep

-16

Mar-

17

Sep

-17

External debt: Short Term (US$bn)

External debt: Long Term (US$ bn)

External debt % of GDP, RS

US$ bn

-20%

-19%

-18%

-17%

-16%

-15%

-14%

-13%

-12%

-11%

-10%

-450

-400

-350

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

Sep

-11

Mar-

12

Sep

-12

Mar-

13

Sep

-13

Mar-

14

Sep

-14

Mar-

15

Sep

-15

Mar-

16

Sep

-16

Mar-

17

Sep

-17

US$ bn, LS

% of GDP, RS

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

280

320

360

400

440

Ja

n-0

8

Ja

n-0

9

Ja

n-1

0

Ja

n-1

1

Ja

n-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

FX reserves FX reserves, 3M trailing accretion, RS

US$ bn

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Ja

n-0

3

Ja

n-0

4

Ja

n-0

5

Ja

n-0

6

Ja

n-0

7

Ja

n-0

8

Ja

n-0

9

Ja

n-1

0

Ja

n-1

1

Ja

n-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

Import cover (in months)

Avg of 10.3x

Avg of 9.7x

Avg of 14.2x




21 February 2018 11

Fig 39 Trend in REER Fig 40 Trend in US$ index vs. INR


Fig 41 AXJ FX performance Fig 42 Trend in FX intervention by RBI

Source: CEIC, Macquarie Research, February 2018 Source: RBI, Macquarie Research, February 2018

Fig 43 Trend in FII flows Fig 44 Trend in FDI Inflows

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, February 2018 Source: CEIC, Macquarie Research, February 2018

-1% -1%

6% 6% 6%

8%

9%

10% 10%

11%

0%

2.4% 2%3%

-1%

2%

4% 4%

6%

-1%-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

US

D/I

DR

US

D/B

RL

US

D/R

UB

US

D/C

NY

US

D/I

NR

US

D/S

GD

US

D/T

HB

US

D/M

YR

US

D/Z

AR

US

D/K

RW

appre

cia

tio

ndepre

cia

tio

n

Performance in CY2017 Performance in CY2018YTD 48

53

58

63

68

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Ju

n-1

2

De

c-1

2

Ju

n-1

3

De

c-1

3

Ju

n-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ju

n-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ju

n-1

6

De

c-1

6

Ju

n-1

7

De

c-1

7

Spot, LS Fwd, LS USD/INR

US$ bn

valu

es in

revers

e o

rder

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Ja

n-1

5

Apr-

15

Ju

l-15

Oct-

15

Ja

n-1

6

Apr-

16

Ju

l-16

Oct-

16

Ja

n-1

7

Apr-

17

Ju

l-17

Oct-

17

Ja

n-1

8

FII - Equity FII - Debt 12M trailing FII Flows, RS

US$ bn

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

No

v-0

7

No

v-0

8

No

v-0

9

No

v-1

0

No

v-1

1

No

v-1

2

No

v-1

3

No

v-1

4

No

v-1

5

No

v-1

6

No

v-1

7

Monthly FDI, US$bn, LS

12M trailing FDI, % of GDP, RS



21 February 2018 12

Macro Stability Indicators – Financial Stability

Fig 45 Trend in reserve money Fig 46 Trend in currency in circulation


Fig 47 Trend in money supply (M3) Fig 48 Trend in money multiplier


Fig 49 Credit & deposit growth impacted by base Fig 50 Ratio of rating upgrade/downgrade improved

Source: CEIC, Macquarie Research, February 2018 Source: CRISIL, Macquarie Research, February 2018

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Ja

n-1

1

Ja

n-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

Reserve MoneyYoY%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Ja

n-1

1

Ja

n-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

Currency in CirculationYoY%

1.1

0.6

0.8

1.7

1.31.2

1.9

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

F2012 F2013 F2014 F2015 F2016 F2017 F2018(Apr-Sep)*

Rating Upgrades to Downgrades (CRISIL)




21 February 2018 13

Fig 51 Interbank liquidity surplus dwindling Fig 52 Trend in call rate vs. policy rate

Source: CEIC, Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, February 2018 Source: CEIC, Macquarie Research, February 2018

Fig 53 Trend in yield curve Fig 54 Trend in market rates

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, February 2018 Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, February 2018

Fig 55 Trend in India vs. US 10Y yields Fig 56 Trend in real rate spread (India vs US)

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, February 2018 Source: Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, February 2018

5.5

5.8

6.1

6.4

6.7

7

7.3

Sep

-16

Oct-

16

No

v-1

6

De

c-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Feb

-17

Mar-

17

Apr-

17

May-1

7

Ju

n-1

7

Ju

l-17

Aug

-17

Sep

-17

Oct-

17

No

v-1

7

De

c-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

Feb

-18

India 10Y Yield India 3M

6.00

6.50

7.00

7.50

8.00

8.50

9.00

9.50

Feb

-16

Apr-

16

Ju

n-1

6

Aug

-16

Oct-

16

De

c-1

6

Feb

-17

Apr-

17

Ju

n-1

7

Aug

-17

Oct-

17

De

c-1

7

Feb

-18

CP 3M CP 6M

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

6

6.5

7

7.5

8

8.5

Ja

n-1

6

Mar-

16

May-1

6

Ju

l-16

Sep

-16

No

v-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Mar-

17

May-1

7

Ju

l-17

Sep

-17

No

v-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

India 10Y Yield. LS

US 10Y Yield, RS

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Ja

n-0

1

Ja

n-0

2

Ja

n-0

3

Ja

n-0

4

Ja

n-0

5

Ja

n-0

6

Ja

n-0

7

Ja

n-0

8

Ja

n-0

9

Ja

n-1

0

Ja

n-1

1

Ja

n-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

Real rate spread (India10Y less US 10Y)



21 February 2018 14

Important disclosures:

Recommendation definitions

Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand Outperform – return >3% in excess of benchmark return Neutral – return within 3% of benchmark return Underperform – return >3% below benchmark return Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend yield

Macquarie – Asia/Europe Outperform – expected return >+10% Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform – expected return <-10%

Macquarie – South Africa Outperform – expected return >+10% Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform – expected return <-10%

Macquarie - Canada

Outperform – return >5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral – return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform – return >5% below benchmark return

Macquarie - USA Outperform (Buy) – return >5% in excess of Russell 3000 index return Neutral (Hold) – return within 5% of Russell 3000 index return Underperform (Sell)– return >5% below Russell 3000 index return

Volatility index definition*

This is calculated from the volatility of historical price movements. Very high–highest risk – Stock should be

expected to move up or down 60–100% in a year – investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative. High – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 40–60% in a year – investors should be aware this stock could be speculative. Medium – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 30–40% in a year. Low–medium – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 25–30% in a year. Low – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 15–25% in a year. * Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only

Recommendations – 12 months Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations

Financial definitions

All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made: Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assets ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards).

Recommendation proportions – For quarter ending 31 December 2017

AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR Outperform 51.82% 55.57% 44.05% 45.06% 60.00% 42.51% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 4.36% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)

Neutral 35.40% 28.60% 36.90% 47.59% 28.67% 40.42% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 2.58% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)

Underperform 12.77% 15.83% 19.05% 7.34% 11.33% 17.07% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 0.69% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)

Company-specific disclosures: Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.

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21 February 2018 15

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Asia Research Head of Equity Research

Peter Redhead (Global – Head) (44 20) 3037 4263

Jake Lynch (Asia – Head) (852) 3922 3583

David Gibson (Japan – Head) (813) 3512 7880

Conrad Werner (ASEAN – Head) (65) 6601 0182

Automobiles, Auto Parts

Janet Lewis (China, Japan) (813) 3512 7856

Allen Yuan (China) (8621) 2412 9009

James Hong (Korea) (822) 3705 8661

Amit Mishra (India) (9122) 6720 4084

Banks and Financials

Scott Russell (Asia) (852) 3922 3567

Dexter Hsu (China, Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7530

Keisuke Moriyama (Japan) (813) 3512 7476

Chan Hwang (Korea) (822) 3705 8643

Suresh Ganapathy (India) (9122) 6720 4078

Jayden Vantarakis (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8310

Anand Pathmakanthan (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8833

Gilbert Lopez (Philippines) (632) 857 0892

Ken Ang (Singapore) (65) 6601 0836

Passakorn Linmaneechote (Thailand) (662) 694 7728

Commodities and Basic Materials

Jim Lennon (Global) (44 20) 3037 4271

Polina Diyachkina (Asia, Japan) (813) 3512 7886

Matthew Turner (Global) (44 20) 3037 4340

Vivienne Lloyd (Global) (44 20) 3037 4530

Serafino Capoferri (Global) (44 20) 3037 2517

Lynn Zhao (Global) (86 21) 2412 9035

Yasuhiro Nakada (Japan) (813) 3512 7862

Anna Park (Korea) (822) 3705 8669

Sumangal Nevatia (India) (9122) 6720 4093


Conglomerates

David Ng (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1291

Conrad Werner (Singapore) (65) 6601 0182


Consumer, Gaming

Linda Huang (Asia) (852) 3922 4068

Zibo Chen (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1130

Terence Chang (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3581

Sunny Chow (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3768

Stella Li (China, Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7514

Satsuki Kawasaki (Japan) (813) 3512 7870

Kwang Cho (Korea) (822) 3705 4953

KJ Lee (Korea) (822) 3705 9935

Amit Sinha (India) (9122) 6720 4085

Karisa Magpayo (Philippines) (632) 857 0899

Chalinee Congmuang (Thailand) (662) 694 7993

Robert Pranata (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8366

Richardo Walujo (Indonesia) (6221) 259 88 369

Emerging Leaders

Jake Lynch (Asia) (852) 3922 3583

Kwang Cho (Korea) (822) 3705 4953

Corinne Jian (Greater China) (8862) 2734 7522

Conrad Werner (ASEAN) (65) 6601 0182

Industrials, Transport and Infrastructure

Patrick Dai (China) (8621) 2412 9082

Eric Zong (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 4749

Kunio Sakaida (Japan) (813) 3512 7873

William Montgomery (Japan) (813) 3512 7864

James Hong (Korea) (822) 3705 8661

Corinne Jian (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7522

Inderjeetsingh Bhatia (India) (9122) 6720 4087

Azita Nazrene (ASEAN) (65) 6601 0560

Internet, Media and Software

Wendy Huang (Asia) (852) 3922 3378

Ivy Luo (Greater China) (852) 3922 1507

Marcus Yang (Greater China) (8862) 2734 7532

David Gibson (Japan) (813) 3512 7880

Soyun Shin (Korea) (822) 3705 8659

Alankar Garude (India) (9122) 6720 4134

Oil, Gas and Petrochemicals

Aditya Suresh (Asia) (852) 3922 1265

Polina Diyachkina (Asia, Japan) (813) 3512 7886

Yasuhiro Nakada (Japan) (813) 3512 7862

Anna Park (Korea) (822) 3705 8669


Yupapan Polpornprasert (Thailand) (662) 694 7729

Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare

Alankar Garude (India) (9122) 6720 4134

Patti Tomaitrichitr (Thailand) (662) 694 7727

Richardo Walujo (Indonesia) (6221) 259 88 369

Property, REIT

Tuck Yin Soong (Asia, Singapore) (65) 6601 0838


Keisuke Moriyama (Japan) (813) 3512 7476

William Montgomery (Japan) (813) 3512 7864


Abhishek Bhandari (India) (9122) 6720 4088

Aiman Mohamad (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8986

Kervin Sisayan (Philippines) (632) 857 0893

Patti Tomaitrichitr (Thailand) (662) 694 7727

Technology

Damian Thong (Asia, Japan) (813) 3512 7877

Allen Chang (Greater China) (852) 3922 1136

Jeffrey Ohlweiler (Greater China) (8862) 2734 7512

Chris Yu (Greater China) (8621) 2412 9024

Kaylin Tsai (Greater China) (8862) 2734 7523

Lynn Luo (Greater China) (8862) 2734 7534

Patrick Liao (Greater China) (8862) 2734 7515

Verena Jeng (Greater China) (852) 3922 3766

Daniel Kim (Korea) (822) 3705 8641

Abhishek Bhandari (India) (9122) 6720 4088

Telecoms

Allen Chang (Greater China) (852) 3922 1136

Soyun Shin (Korea) (822) 3705 8659

Prem Jearajasingam (ASEAN) (603) 2059 8989

Kervin Sisayan (Philippines) (632) 857 0893

Nathania Nurhalim (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8365

Utilities, Renewables

Hiroyuki Sakaida (Japan) (813) 3512 6695

Patrick Dai (China) (8621) 2412 9082


Karisa Magpayo (Philippines) (632) 857 0899

Economics and Macro

Ric Deverell (612) 8232 4307 (Chief Economist & Head of Macro Research)

Peter Eadon-Clarke (Global) (813) 3512 7850

Larry Hu (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3778

Upasana Chachra (India) (9122) 6720 4355

Quantitative, CPG

Gurvinder Brar (Global) (44 20) 3037 4036

Alvin Chao (Asia) (852) 3922 1108

Tracy Chow (Asia) (852) 3922 4285

YingYing Hou (Asia) (852) 3922 5422

Strategy, Country

Viktor Shvets (Asia, Global) (852) 3922 3883


Peter Eadon-Clarke (Japan) (813) 3512 7850

Chan Hwang (Korea) (822) 3705 8643

Jeffrey Ohlweiler (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7512



Anand Pathmakanthan (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8833


Conrad Werner (ASEAN, Singapore) (65) 6601 0182

Passakorn Linmaneechote (Thailand) (662) 694 7728

Find our research at Macquarie: www.macquarieresearch.com Thomson: www.thomson.com/financial Reuters: www.knowledge.reuters.com Bloomberg: MAC GO Factset: http://www.factset.com/home.aspx CapitalIQ www.capitaliq.com Email [email protected] for access

Asia Sales Regional Heads of Sales

Miki Edelman (Global) (1 212) 231 6121

Amelia Mehta (Asia) (65) 6601 0211

Jeff Evans (Boston) (1 617) 598 2508

Jeffrey Shiu (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 2061

Sandeep Bhatia (India) (9122) 6720 4101

Thomas Renz (Geneva) (41 22) 818 7712

Tomohiro Takahashi (Japan) (813) 3512 7823

John Jay Lee (Korea) (822) 3705 9988

Nik Hadi (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8888

Gino C Rojas (Philippines) (632) 857 0861

Regional Heads of Sales cont’d

Paul Colaco (San Francisco) (1 415) 762 5003

Angus Kent (Thailand) (662) 694 7601

Ben Musgrave (UK/Europe) (44 20) 3037 4882

Christina Lee (UK/Europe) (44 20) 3037 4873

Sales Trading

Adam Zaki (Asia) (852) 3922 2002

Stanley Dunda (Indonesia) (6221) 515 1555

Sales Trading cont’d

Suhaida Samsudin (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8888

Michael Santos (Philippines) (632) 857 0813

Chris Reale (New York) (1 212) 231 2555

Marc Rosa (New York) (1 212) 231 2555

Justin Morrison (Singapore) (65) 6601 0288

Daniel Clarke (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7580

Brendan Rake (Thailand) (662) 694 7707

Mike Keen (UK/Europe) (44 20) 3037 4905

This publication was disseminated on 20 February 2018 at 16:29 UTC.


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India Economics · 2019-11-24 · Upasana Chachra +91 22 6720 4355 [email protected] 21...

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Transcript of India Economics · 2019-11-24 · Upasana Chachra +91 22 6720 4355 [email protected] 21...