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'In the Name of Allah, The

Compassionate, The Merciful’

Flood water conservation

underground

- Case Study:

-Indus Basin (Pakistan)

to improve water quality & quantity

Rotterdam, May 11, 2016

Prof. Dr. Amir Haider Malik (Advisor)

Centre for Climate Research and Development (CCRD)

COMSATS Institute of Information Technology (CIIT),

Park Road, Chak Shahzad, Islamabad, Pakistan

Cell: 0092 - 300 - 58 11 639

E-Mail: ahmalik@comsats.edu.pk

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Contents of my lecture:

Major water challenges of Pakistan

(A): Water quantity aspects

(B): Water quality aspects

What to do?

How to do?

Justification of the Idea

Way forward

Conclusion

Acknowledgement

Major water challenges

of

Pakistan

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1. Main water

quantity aspects

Total river (surface) water

production in Million Acre Feet

(MAF)

Use Percentage

(%)

75 is being used for agriculture, 52 35 is being mis-managed , especially in

agr. Sector 24

10 Required to be drained per annum

into the sea. 7

25 But, about 25 MAF (about 2 Mangla

& 2 Tarbela capacity) fresh water is

being drained into the sea annually.

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145 * 100

Availability of surplus fresh water/annum to be stored :

According to Ahmad, (2000), Pakistan has the largest canal irrigation system

in the world having 145 million acre feet (maf) annual average of water,

out of this quantity:

Mangla Dam became the country’s biggest reservoir when water storage in its lake rose to 6.65 million acre feet,

surpassing 6.58MAF, the maximum live storage capacity of Tarbela Dam, total about 13 MAF of both reservoirs.

* According to MALIK (2011), It was about 168.3 MAF before 1947.

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CIIT

Case Study of the Floods of 2010

(Flood damages in Pakistan from 1950 – 2011)

Year` Fatalities People affected

1950 2,190 10,000

1956 160 11,609

1957 83 4,498

1973 474 9,719

1976 425 18,390

1978 393 9,199

1988 508 1,000

1992 1,008 13,208

1995 591 6,85

2001 219 50

2003 484 4,376

2004 85 47

2005 59 1,931

2007 918 2 million+

2010 1,781+ 20 million

2011 434 8.9 million

CIIT

2010 FLOODS 2010 FLOODS, 78 districts were affected

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Water Availability

per head per annum in Pakistan

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Total Water Storage Capacity/Annum for Pakistan, (caparison with other countries)

There is about 900 days of water storage capacity on the

Colorado and Murray-Darling rivers, but there is only about 30

days of storage capacity in the Pakistan.

Therefore major investments are urgently

needed to store more water, in both surface

water and groundwater. GW Storage is also

important to secure water from evaporation

losses, especially in the Southern Arid & Semi

Arid Parts of Pakistan.

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2.4 %

Due to increase of

population,

agriculture sector

will be the looser in

future for water that

is why there will also

be less GWR due to

less availability of

water for Agr Sector.

95 %

2.6 %

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GROWING ROLE OF GROUNWATER IN IRRIGATION SECTOR IN PAKISTAN

The groundwater annual abstraction in Pakistan has increased

from about 4 MAF in 1959

to about 50 MAF in 1996-1999 .

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Status of Groundwater Depletion/Over-mining in Pakistan:

The groundwater recharge in Pakistan is estimated to be

about 68 BCM (55 MAF).

Groundwater now accounts for almost half of all irrigation requirements, but

there is clear evidence that groundwater is being over-exploited, yet tens of

thousands of additional new wells are being planned to be insalled every

year (World Bank Report, 2005).

Status of Groundwater Depletion/Over-mining & related

energy consumption involved:

Overmining of groundwater:

Water table is going down/over-mined

in about 26 canal commands

out of total about 45 canal command areas (of the Indus

System).

Increase of Cost for GW exploitation:

(1). The cost of installing tubewell in areas where water-

table depth is more than 24 meters is 7 times higher as

compared to

those areas where water-table depth is around 6

meters.

(2). Same is true with the increase of energy

consumption for GW exploitation.

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SURFACE WATER STORAGE LOSSES IN

EXISTING RESERVOIRS, DUE TO

SILTATION/SEDIMENTATION.

Dam

Designed

Live

Storage

(MAF)

Existing

Live

Storage

(MAF)

Percenta

ge Loss

Tarbela 9.7 7.2 -26%

Mangla 5.3 / 4.75 4.5 -15%

Chashma 0.9 0.4 -55%

Total 15.9 12.1 -25%

There will be increased frequency

of weather extremes.

Storms

Floods

Droughts

There will be higher crop water demand

due to increase of temperatures

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The Indus:

One of the riverflow

model suggests that the

runoff of the Indus will

decrease by the year

2050 by about 27%.

National & International Water Conflicts:

1) National Level (Kalabagh Dam, there is need

of consensus among all the provinces)

2) International Level (Indus Water Treaty) with

India (1960).

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2. Water quality aspects

Urban Water Quality

(anthropogenic influences):

Since all major cities in Pakistan depend on

groundwater as their source of raw water, but this

poses a serious and rapidly growing problem for the

cities.

In many cities, local aquifers are being:

•Over-pumped and are

•contaminated.

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Urban Water Quality

(anthropogenic influences):

Consider the case of Lahore, for example, which

has more than 300 tube-wells installed.

Over the past few years, water quality

has become a serious issue as there is

no proper sewage treatment facility available.

Geo-genic influences

Arsenic (& Fluoride) Water Contamination in Punjab

Following figure show the levels of arsenic, relative to the

WHO guideline, in parts per billion (ppb).

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Water Quality Aspects

(Increase of Salinity in the Indus Basin):

The advent of large-scale irrigation had dramatic

implications for the increase of salinity,

about 15 million tonnes of salt (or about 1 tonne of

salt per hectare per year of irrigated land) is being

stored/retained in the Indus Basin.

One of the reason is:

Drainage of about 25 MAF/annum of fresh water in

form of floods into the sea.

Geo-genic influences

There are substantial areas, especially in the lower

part of the Indus delta, where groundwater is

naturally saline (fig. 3.32). Again, one of the

reason is: Drainage of about 25 MAF/annum of

fresh water into the sea.

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What to do? With the Blessing of Almighty Allah…., one of the Feasible

Sustainable Solution is the

“Flood water conservation underground

- Case Study:

-Indus Basin (Pakistan)

to improve water quality & quantity”:

• Not only to release ONLY Safer Flood Water, but also

• To have more water in the droughty periods,

• To have also improved good water quality & quantity.

Methodology to be adopted:

To define SAFER FLOOD peaks at different barrages

• Selection of Flood Water Diversion Canal sites with the help

of GIS/RS, topography/morphology/soil strata, geology for

diversion of water through gravity for maximum Groundwater

Water Recharge (GWR).

• On the basis of present & past surface water data, modeling

should be done to divert water optimally, from:

Flood Water River to Flood Water accomodating River.

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How to Do?

To divert surplus flood

water mainly through

Gravity Flow GWR

Diversion Canals.

To release only:

• safer floods in the down

stream,

• to reduce damage of lives

& material &

• To save more water for

the coming droughts.

Indus

Water

Treaty

(IWT)

25 MAF/annum flood water should

be accommodated to:

• Store water underground &

• To dilute the increasing silinity of

the Indus Water System.

Main Flood Rivers are Indus & Chenab :

About 50-70% of total surface water flows in three to

four monsoon months.

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Seasonal Surface Water (& Precipitation)

challenges: Floods (& droughts), 50-70% of total

surface water flows in two to three monsoon months.

To a substantial degree the main

function of the

canal systems has

been to recharge

the groundwater—

about 80 percent of

g r o u n d w a t e r

abstractions in

Punjab come from

recharge from

canals

The survival of the water economy over

the last several decades has largely been despite

rather than because of the state—it has been the

tapping of the unmanaged groundwater by

millions of farmers, by towns and villages and

industries that have pulled the economy through.

It is clear that this era of ‘productive anarchy’ is

now coming to an end, since groundwater is now

being over-tapped in many areas (including both

the Indus Basin and Balochistan and other nonIndus

areas). This poses two major challenges to

the state. First, surface water supply systems are

going to resume their previous high importance,

and need to be managed much more accountably

and effectively. Second, groundwater will have to

be managed—for related reasons of quantity and

quality—much more aggressively than has been

the case in the past.

In 1960, groundwater accounted for only 8

percent of the farm gate water supplies in Punjab.

Twenty-five years later this figure was 40 percent,

and at present groundwater use for agriculture

accounts for more than 60 percent of the water at

the farm gate in Punjab.

34 It is estimated that 75

percent of the increase in water supplies in the

last twenty-five years is due to groundwater

exploitation.

In Punjab, for example, 80 percent of the

groundwater recharge is from the canal system.

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To a substantial degree the main

function of the

canal systems has

been to recharge

the groundwater—

about 80 percent of

g r o u n d w a t e r

abstractions in

Punjab come from

recharge from

canals

The survival of the water economy over

the last several decades has largely been despite

rather than because of the state—it has been the

tapping of the unmanaged groundwater by

millions of farmers, by towns and villages and

industries that have pulled the economy through.

It is clear that this era of ‘productive anarchy’ is

now coming to an end, since groundwater is now

being over-tapped in many areas (including both

the Indus Basin and Balochistan and other nonIndus

areas). This poses two major challenges to

the state. First, surface water supply systems are

going to resume their previous high importance,

and need to be managed much more accountably

and effectively. Second, groundwater will have to

be managed—for related reasons of quantity and

quality—much more aggressively than has been

the case in the past.

In 1960, groundwater accounted for only 8

percent of the farm gate water supplies in Punjab.

Twenty-five years later this figure was 40 percent,

and at present groundwater use for agriculture

accounts for more than 60 percent of the water at

the farm gate in Punjab.

34 It is estimated that 75

percent of the increase in water supplies in the

last twenty-five years is due to groundwater

exploitation.

In Punjab, for example, 80 percent of the

groundwater recharge is from the canal system.

Justification of the flood

water diversion project

for groundwater

recharge.

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TOPOGRAPHY: Source: Shahid M. Zia and Tahir Hasnain, (2000):

According to Abbas, Hassan 2012, SAND DAMS, which are being

constructed elsewhere with huge

technical &

cost involvement are available by Nature in the Indus Basin, especially in the

Rachna, Thal and Bari Doabs, all offering excellent aquifers which could be

exploited:

•offering a potential storage capacity of

•hundreds of times more than that of

•Tarbela,

•Mangla and

•Kalabagh

combined.

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Sedimentary Indus Basin/Sand Dams:

Hydro-geology:

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I am NOT inventing the WHEEL once gain!

We can Utilise already existing Pakistani experience too:

According to PCRW Report, as a result of the Indus Water Treaty

(IWT), Pakistan completed successfully a gigantic project of Indus

Basin Replacement Works (IBRW).

It was the biggest irrigation project (cost of Pak Rs. 124 billion) of

the world at that time, which was completed with in only

Ten years, and by which 17 BCM/year

(about 13.75 MAF/annum) of:

• water was transferred from western to eastern rivers.

We can also learn from other side of our easter borders in India:

Rajasthan/Indira Ghandi canal was built to accomodate about 7.6

MAF/annum water coming from the rivers Sutluj & Beas (Maitra, M., 1987),

bring PROSPERITY & DEVELOPMENT there as compared to our

about 25 MAF/annum, we drain/annum into sea.

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Confirmation of about 10 to 20 m capacity for GWR in the

Indus Basin Sediments, to save Water underground,

even to secure water from evaporation losses, especially

in the Southern arid & semi arid parts of Pakistan.

Water Table Development History of Punjab (Indus Basin)

Projected Demand for Water

(Pakistan to face about 31% water shortage by 2025, water availability in 2025 would stand at around 120 million acre

feet compared to the need of about 140 MAF)

Source: Hasan et al, 2005.

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Case Study from India (Flood Water Diversion Canal): On

average, the water table has risen from 12 m to 6.5 m in Uttar

Pradesh due to Diversion of Monsoonal Flood Water through

the Madhya Canal (Sakthivadivel & Chawla IWMI).

After the construction of flood water diversion canal unlined

system in India also refills the aquifers, enabling farmers to use

recharged groundwater to irrigate a second crop.

The cost of pumping ground- water at the actual 1999 water table

depth, 6.5m, is Rs. 2,650 per ha.m—a savings of Rs. 2,000/ha.m

for farmers.

Average net income increased about 26 (%) percent.

Paddy area has increased from 2 to 15 percent in the area

and sugar- cane from 13 to 15 percent.

(Sakthivadivel & Chawla IWMI).

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According to Tushaar Shah in his article “Climatic Change and

Groundwater: India’s Opportunities for Mitigation and Adaptation”

<http://publications.iwmi.org/pdf/H042693.pdf>

India needs to make a transition from

•surface storages (due to siltation, displacement of people,

non availability of consensus among the provinces, etc)

to

* “managed aquifer storage”

as the main focus of its water strategy.

In doing this, Pakistan needs also to learn intelligently from the

experience of countries like, Australia and the USA.

Damages caused by significant floods worldwide from 1900-2014 (in billion U.S. Dallars)

Source: International Desaster Database, CRED, July,2014.

Losses of about 9.5 Billion US Dollars can be saved annually.

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Water Quality Aspects:

Comparison of Salinity in

four Provinces

There will be sure

Improvement of geo-genic &

anthropogenic

contamination of the aquifer,

for agr & for drinking

purposes, even for the

whole Karachi, etc.

If Implemented, Outcome of

the project:

Through Bank Filtration

process along the canal

banks, drinking water of

good quality can be

provided to every Pakistani

including surplus water for

Karachi, etc., through

gravity flow.

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If Implemented, Outcome of the project:

• About

•two Mangla &

•two Tarbela

•Dams water capacity (about 25 MAF) can be added annually to

the total SW & GW system of the Indus Basin.

•Wastage of water means also wastage of Energy (take the

example of Renala Khurd Hydropower Plant in Okara District, at

Lower Bari Doab Canal, still producing 1.1 (MW) since 1925, it

was Pakistan's first hydropower project.)

If Implemented, Outcome of the project:

Flood disaster reduction (Infrastructure, crops, human & animals,

etc.)

• More drinking water, more employment, less community

migration from rural to urban areas, reduction of poverty & more

production of food & fish, to go for more food export.

•More facilities to transport goods, etc., through new canal water

ways navigation).

• One can also develop cities & town along the diversion canals, If

more water is available to reduce burden on existing over-

burdened urban areas.

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If Implemented, outcome of the project:

It is an optimal option to store more flood water in

aquifers especially for the coming droughts.

•To stabilize or raise groundwater levels, reduction of

well construction costs & well running energy costs.

•Reduction of water losses through evaporation.

•To hinder storm runoff and soil erosion.

•Maintain environmental/base flow in streams/rivers,

even in the dry period.

•To reduce sea water intrusion along the coastal areas.

•

Acknowledgement: Aspecially, Foreign input: * Prof. Dr Franz Nestmann (Hydrologist), KIT, Germany. * Dr. Fred F. Hattermann (Hydrologist), Hydrological Modelling, & Prof Dr Juergen Kropp, both from PIK, Potsdam, Germany. * DAAD for the funding of one of my travel to Germany.

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•

Way forward: * Ministry of Water & Power/WAPDA should be convinced to implement this project to improve the quality & quantity of water. * In collaboration with foreign exerts especially from Germany involved, FEASIBILITY STUDY should be under-taked to go for the implementation of the said project to secure water quality & quantity of the Indus Basin.

THANK YOU

/

Shukria! Prof. Dr. Amir Haider Malik ahmalik@comsats.edu.pk, CCRD, COMSATS

Institute of Information Technology, Islamabad

Photo:With two of the DAAD funded project CIIT scholars at

Besham Qila, Indus River.