Improvement and Harmonization of Montenegro BSHAP Earthquake

Catalogue

MS Jadranka Mihaljevic, Civil Eng mihaljevic@seismo.co.me

2 nd PROJECT WORKSHOP Belgrade, 25-26 April,2013

Improvements in theHarmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries

Improved Montenegro BSHAP Earthquake Catalogue, B. Glavatovic

• 1970-2012

• ML > 3.0

• *Covering area app. 10-15 km from

national borders

• Full catalogue

/ main event & cluster events/

*Polyline17.86 41.74 18.36 42.35 18.32 43.01 19.00 43.75 20.53 42.95 20.20 42.55 19.93 42.40 19.67 42.42 19.44 42.20 19.50 42.14 19.46 41.82 18.87 41.12 17.86 41.74

Earthquake data

• Month• Date• Hour• Minute• Sec

• Lat• Long (WGS, three decimal places)

• ML & Reporting Agency• Mw & Reporting Agency• Mw harmonized

NOTES:

* Intensity data not given* Mm data not given* Reporting agency PDG* (Automatic) Declustering procedure on polygon* Mw given acc to L. Duni, N. Kuka, Sh. Kuka, A. Fundo, 2010 “Towards a new seismic hazardassessment of Albania”, Proceedings of XIV ECEE Ohrid,

Macedonia, T1- paper No1894.

National catalogue data*delivered by the beginning of BSHAP project

Mw 3.0 + events since 1970* delivered for Improvements

Statistics on 1970-2012 M 3.0+ sub-catalogue: No of Events: 1008

No of Main events: 413 No of Cluster events*: 595

1970-2012 Mw 3+ Subcatalogue is relevant for the investigation of completeness of smaller magnitude classes, J. Mihaljevic

Completness of magnitude class 3.0 < Mw < 3. 5(Cumulative No of events vs Year)

Completness of magnitude class 3.5 < Mw < 4.0

Completness of magnitude class 4.0 < Mw < 4.5

Completness of magnitude class 4.5 < Mw < 5.0

Investigation of completeness of higher magnitude classes (sipmple addition of latest data to MSO +3.5 catalogue provided in July 2010)

Completness of magnitude class 5.0 < Mw < 5.5

Completness of magnitude class 5.5 < Mw < 6.0, 6.0 < Mw < 6.5, 6.5< Mw < 7.0

• Available earthquake catalogue BSHAP _E catalogue (M. Herak): - mo 3.0, mmax 7.4

- time span [-510, 2009] y.- declustered- no magnitude type unification.

• National Mne catalogue refers to 1440 A.D., while the neighboring Albanian and Croatian catalogues originate from times B.C.

• Data completeness to be investigated on extract/subcatalogue of BSHAP_E catalog for narrow Montenegro territory: This choice was set to preserve the rate of known large earthquakes for Montenegro itself. Shortcoming of method is that number of available earthquake data is smaller.

• Magnitude classes: 0.5 and 0.2 magnitude increment• Completeness investigated for each magnitude class

Previous Investigation on data completeness influence to final seismic hazard results, J. Mihaljevic

Class Range

Class complete

Years of compl. data

Normalization factor

N(M) in Y. compl.

Normalized N(M)

 since till

7.1 7-7.2 1400 2008 608 1 2 26.9 6.8-7.0 1400 2008 608 1 2 26.7 6.6-6.8 1400 2008 608 1 1 16.5 6.4-6.6 1400 2008 608 1 0 06.3 6.2-6.4 1400 2008 608 1 1 16.1 6.0-6.2 1500 2008 508 1.196464 0 05.9 5.8-6.0 1550 2008 458 1.326797 4 5.3071885.7 5.6-5.8 1600 2008 408 1.488998 1 1.4889985.5 5.4-5.6 1750 2008 258 2.351351 2 4.7027025.3 5.2-5.4 1900 2008 108 5.587156 2 11.1743125.1 5.0-5.2 1900 2008 108 5.587156 3 16.7614684.9 4.8-5.0 1900 2008 108 5.587156 6 33.5229364.7 4.6-4.8 1915 2008 93 6.478723 13 84.2233994.5 4.4-4.6 1950 2008 58 10.32203 14 144.508424.3 4.2-4.4 1955 2008 53 11.27778 17 191.722264.1 4.0-4.2 1968 2008 40 14.85366 20 297.07323.9 3.8-4.0 1970 2008 38 15.61538 15 234.23073.7 3.6-3.8 1975 2008 33 17.91176 35 626.91163.5 3.4-3.6 1979 2008 29 20.3 40 8123.3 3.2-3.4 1979 2008 29 20.3 55 1116.53.1 3.0-3.2 1979 2008 29 20.3 110 2233

Recurrence rate: • Standard Gutenberg-Richter recurrence low

(b=0.89, Mu=7.2), applying standard MLE algorithm for the calculation of b,

• Using doubly truncated recurrence low, calculated by OHAZ program (b- value 0.952, the best data fit refers to Mu 7.5)

3 4 5 6 7

1E-006

1E-005

0.0001

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

3 4 5 6 7Magnitude, Mw

1E-006

1E-005

0.0001

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

Cum

ulat

ive

num

ber /

yea

r

Frequency-magnitude relationship for Influence area

Double-truncated exponential (b=0.952, m0=3.0, mu=7.5)

3 4 5 6 7

1E-006

1E-005

0.0001

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

3 4 5 6 7

1E-006

1E-005

0.0001

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

NATO SfP 984374 PROJECT Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan

Countries Sensibility Analysis - Case Study Montenegro, J. Mihaljevic

Approach National - (a) Harmonized / Regional – (b) (c)

Catalogue BSHAP-E version ranging from 1440 A.D

More precise completeness level

BSHAP-E version ranging from -510 B.C.Not so uniform completeness over the region

Seismotectonic Precise for Mne,

General for the Influence areaPrecise and harmonized for the region

Sesimotectonic models:

(a) Montenegro case study,(b) Corresponding section of BSHAP seismoteconic model prepared for preliminary hazard assessment, Zagreb workshop( c) Corresponding section of BSHAP Final BSHAP sesmotectonic model.

(a) (b) ( c)

NATO SfP 984374 PROJECT Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western

Balkan Countries Sensibility Analysis - Case Study Montenegro, J. Mihaljevic

NATO SfP 984374 PROJECT Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western

Balkan Countries Sensibility Analysis - Case Study Montenegro, J. Mihaljevic

0.23 g

0.27 g

(a) Montenegro case study (T=475)

0.18 g

0.29 g

(b) Preliminary BSHAP results (T=475)

0.27 g

0.35 g

(c) Final BSHAP results (T=475)