Implementation of different foresight techniques · Manchester Institute of Innovation Research...

ManchesterInstitute ofInnovationResearch

Rafael [email protected]

References• Popper (2008), How are foresight methods selected? ,

Foresight, 10(6), pp. 62– 89.

• Popper (2008), Foresight Methodology , in Georghiou et al., The Handbook of Technology Foresight, Edward Elgar, UK.See http://www.e-elgar.co.uk/Bookentry_Main.lasso?id=3977

• Popper et al. (2007) Global Foresight Outlook 2007 . Mapping Foresight in Europe and the rest of the World, The EFMN Annual Mapping Report 2004-2005, report prepared by PREST and TNO to the European Commissions’ DG Research, Manchester, UK: The University of Manchester.

• SCOPE Report at http://prest.mbs.ac.uk/prest/scope

Implementation of different foresight techniques

Examples of “Scope 2015” and “EUFORIA”


Example 1

SCOPEnormative

Case 1


• Scenarios of future S&T developments in developing countries 2015

• Project supported by DG Research Directorate K-2 Science and Technology Foresight

Objectives

– To produce scenarios for the year 2015 focused on contextualised scientific and technological developments in selected regions of developing countries;

– To analyse the consequences of the scenarios for Europe and European RTD policy;

– To use the above to provide advice to the European Union in the field for RTD policies in relation to developing countries.

Project context and objectivesCase 1


Region Countries

Sub-Saharan Africa Botswana

GhanaKenya

NigeriaSenegal

Latin America ArgentinaChile

ColombiaVenezuela

Commonwealth of Independent States

AzerbaijanGeorgia

KazakhstanUkraine

Maghreb and Mashreq

(Egypt)Jordan

MoroccoTunisia

Territorial scaleCase 1


Project Methodology OutlineCase 1

ManchesterInstitute ofInnovationResearch Creativity

InteractionExp

erti

se

Evidence

RTD Drivers Brainstorming

Desk Scenarios

Expert Panel

Validation Forum

Policy Workshop

SCOPE Methodology

Scanning

Literature Review

Scenarios WorkshopBackcasting

Case 1


1. Historical Policy and Institutional Developments

2. Contemporary Institutional Landscape

3. Role of Donors and International Organisations

4. National RTD Policy

5. Future Visions/Foresight

6. RTD Funding: Sources, Levels & Allocation Mechanisms

7. Human and infrastructural Resources

8. Ability to Address Emerging RTD Priority Areas

9. International RTD Cooperation

10. Prospects for Advancing RTD in the country

17 RTD desk studiesCase 1


Author Topic: Validation 4: Actions

rafael popperSCOPE administrator

What sorts of actions and measures do you think nee d to be taken to move national S&T efforts along a po sitive trajectory? How could the European Union help to achieve this?IP: Logged

ed. attahSCOPE member

1. Financially unburden the country so as to free funds for activities on science and technology, e.g. debt relief. 2. Collaborate on equipment, resources and technology for potable and agricultural water. 3. Collaborate in the fight against serious epidemics especially HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria. 4. Collaborate in the improvement of maternal and child health, in which Nigeria has remained among the worst performers IP: Logged

p. okekeSCOPE member

(d) The problem of moving S & T forward lies with the Government. Government should encourage research from grass root rather than lift froging into high tech alone with little or no contributions by our researchers. Government should reduce emphasis on research production for immediate benefit and encourage basic research on long term basis. Both private sectors and Universities should be encouraged to work together.

1st Online WorkshopStructured debate on each country report to validat e & extend

Case 1


• Drivers derived from country reports and other material

• Factors that will affect and drive the issues of concern to the project objectives

• Each explored in three alternative futures– Alpha Outlooks represent an extrapolation of

current forces. This is closest to a most likely extension of current paradigms or conditions relating to the driver

– Beta Outlooks consider some of the many things that could ‘go wrong’

– Delta Outlooks consider potential paradigm shifts, particularly those that would contribute to more visionary, ‘successful’ outcomes

2nd Online WorkshopRegional Synthesis and Drivers Discussed in Telecon ference

Case 1


Description of partner country RTD cooperation strategy, means & priorities

In Groups

Drivers used to assemble 3 regional baseline scenarios

Groups review & amend

Consider implications for international RTD cooperation

Description of EU RTD cooperation strategy, means & priorities

Consideration of robustness of cooperation strategy against the 3 scenarios

In Groups

Opening plenary presentations

Workshop process – Day 1Case 1


Workshop process – Day 2

Plenary presentations of previous days outputs

Elaborate main contours of Success Scenario for cooperation

including priority areas

Revisit key drivers & outlooks to get 10 year

objective

In Groups

Backcasting of success scenarios to get concrete action points

In Groups

Plenary presentations of Success Scenarios

Closing plenary presentation

Case 1


• Developed in PREST and used in setting UK ICT, Biotech and Nanotech strategies

• Also used for policy foresight

Success scenario methodologyCase 1


• Create a vision of success to set a stretch target for all stakeholders

• Those who take part are in a position to influence the policy/strategy outcomes

• Building an advocacy coalition

• Actions steps are a key outcome

• Key is the talent, imagination and influence of the participants !

Why success scenario?Case 1


Example 2

EUFORIAexploratory

Case 2


General objectives

• Increase understanding of the forces shaping the evolution of the EU as a Knowledge Society

• Anticipate the potential impacts of the Knowledge Society on

– living conditions

– working conditions

– industrial relations

Case 2


Political & Strategic framework

• EUFORIA links the project to the EC FP6 (2002-2006), with its focus on

– the European Research Area, and

– the goals of the Lisbon Summit

• Lisbon declared the intention of EU to become by 2010 (later moved to 2015):

(1) the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy, capable of (2) sustained (3) economic growth with (4) more and (5) better jobs and greater (6) social cohesion”.

Case 2


Methodological approach

• Integrative (various countries + international community)

• Exploratory (various traditional methods)

• Experimental (modification to methods + languages)

• Developmental (using previous activities outcomes as inputs for following stages)

• Forward-looking (using 15 years as the time horizon in all activities)

Case 2


• Sponsor– European Foundation for the Improvement of

Living and Working Conditions

• Project coordinator– PREST (UK)

• Project partners– Atlantis (Greece)– Empirica (Germany)– Finland Futures Research Centre (Finland)– Taoiseach (Ireland)

EUFORIA Team Case 2


Work plan Case 2


Finland

Indicators work Case 2


Trends & Drivers Brainstorming Case 2


Soc.1 Soc.2 Soc.3 Tec.1 Tec.2 Tec.3 Eco.1 Eco.2 Eco.3 Env.1 Env.2 Env.3 Pol.1 Pol.2 Pol.3 Val.1 Val.2 Val.3 TOTAL

Soc.1 Soc.1

Soc.2 Soc.2

Soc.3 Soc.3

Tec.1 Tec.1

Tec.2 Tec.2

Tec.3 Tec.3

Eco.1 Eco.1

Eco.2 Eco.2

Eco.3 Eco.3

Env.1 Env.1

Env.2 Env.2

Env.3 Env.3

Pol.1 Pol.1

Pol.2 Pol.2

Pol.3 Pol.3

Val.1 Val.1

Val.2 Val.2

Val.3 Val.3

TOTAL

Piloting semi-quantitative approaches:critical influence analysis Case 2


Economic Structure and Course

• Reappearance of monopolistic and oligopolistic situations in many sectors

• Competitiveness of Greek enterprises decreases (goal: low production cost) –there are only marginal improvements in the production

• With the Enlargement, Greek enterprises lose their competitive advantage(low production cost)

• There is no FDI in the country

• The black economy is blossoming

• …

NIGHTMARE Scenario Case 2


Characteristics, main trends, events & milestones

• “demystification” of the KS and IS

• Redesigning of policies based on comparative advantages

• Development of services regarding tourism, health , diversified agricultural products – new technologies and research under the service of these sectors

• Purification of competition in the market – foreign investments

• Upgrading of the educational system – vocational training life-long learning

• Positive integration of immigrants / foreigners –multiculturalism

• Greece: the centre of the “European region of the Balkans ”

AWAKENING Scenario Case 2


Online Delphi Case 2


1. Governance and mobilityissues such as the way EU governments interact with citizens and labourorganizations; working force immigration and emigration; the use of technology and ICT by governments; etc.

2. Health and privacyissues such as the way EU policies deal with genetic engineering; civil liberties, health monitoring; DNA screening; creation of geneticdatabanks; etc.

3. Industrial relationsissues such as the way EU industries manage their networks; monitoring and supervision through electronic means; employment contracts; role of trade unions; decision-making practices; etc.

4. Living conditionsissues such as the way EU citizens behave and live; ethics; justice; education; social isolation and loneliness; life-long learning; work-life balance and family relations; role of ICT in everyday life; etc.

5. Sustainability and developmentissues such as the way European countries deal with sustainable development; regional employment; business management practices;environmental technologies; wealth creation and quality of life; effects of EU enlargement; etc.

6. Working conditionsissues such as the way European countries deal with gender-related work inequalities; working time; forms of employment; organizational learning; violence and harassment at work; etc.

Delphi Dimensions Case 2


• Approach: exploratory (picturing the KS)

• Time horizon: 2015

• Scope: pan-European (focus in 3 countries)– Finland, Greece and Germany

• Implementation & management: online

• Duration on the web: approx. 14 weeks

• Languages: English, German, Finnish & Greek

• Number of statements: – 32 cross-national (common)

– 5 with country-specific

• Promotion: real + virtual combined

• System used: Online survey

Delphi features Case 2


• Living conditions

– Social cohesion – those features of society that relate to social integration and the reduction of conflict between or within social groupings

– Social exclusion or divides – any matters that create or exacerbate inequality and inequity between or within social groupings including the ‘digital divide,’ access to education, gender and other equality related issues.

– Sustainability/environmental quality – those matters that influence the development of the natural and built environments in which future generations will live

Criteria (1/3) Case 2


• Industrial relations

– Employer-employee relations – includes the role of trade unions, management, and employees including employment standards as set by regulations and directives

– Economic growth/wealth creation – those matters that increase national income and strengthen the industrial base

– Entrepreneurship and innovativeness –those matters that enable and promote new products, processes and services in existing businesses and the formation of new businesses in novel fields



• Working conditions– Employee exercise of autonomy and

responsibility at work – including the advancement of the quality of working life through freedom to make decisions, to exercise management of time and to embark on retraining

– Work-life balance – those matters that enable people to manage the stresses caused by for example the pressures arising from longer and unsocial working conditions

– Job creation – refers to the expansion of employment opportunities at all skill levels irrespective of gender



Delphi look-and-feel Case 2


Delphi-based ScenarioKey Features of the KS

1. Life-long learningall activity undertaken throughout life, with the aim of improving knowledge, skills and competence, within a personal, civic, social and/or employment-related perspective.

2. Use of environmental technologiesgoing beyond the production of devices to clean up pollution, i.e. developing and implementing: 'integrated’ technologies to prevent pollutants being generated during the production process; new materials; energy & resource-efficient production processes…

3. Decrease of gender-related pay inequalities4. New forms of networked business organisation

Networks are capable of forming and spreading throughout all thehighways of the global economy because they are based on the power of information

5. Use of electronic networks for remote supervision6. Widespread use of ICT in e-governance7. Harmonisation of educational standards8. Use of telemedicine and online health monitoring9. Increased family stress and conflict10.Abandonment of common retirement notions11.Promotion of labour market mobility

Case 2


Living Conditions Industrial Relations Working Cond itions

Social Cohesion

Social exclusion or divides

Sustainability environmental

quality

Employer-employee relations

Economic growth / wealth

creation

Entrepreneurship and

innovativeness

Employee autonomy and responsibility

Work-life balance Job creation

03 I D? NE? I I ?? I I? ?? 15 I D NE? I I NE? I? I NE? 16 I D I? I I I I I? I? 17 I D I I I I I I I? 22 I D I NE I I I? I? I? 26 NE? D? SI NE I I NE NE I 31 I? D? I I I I I ?? I

SI = STRONGLY INCREASES; I = INCREASES; NE = NO EFFECT; D = DECREASES ? = THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY; ?? = TOO UNCERTAIN (BIMODAL DISTRIBUTION)

ID Category Statement

St. 03 Governance & mobility Labour relations organisations (e.g. trade union and other representative bodies) will have a major influence on government and business in shaping the knowledge society in my country.

St. 15 Industrial relations Trade unions have become more important in my country, responding to new work arrangements, offering networked membership, new types of social security and other services to their members.

St. 16 Industrial relations Large organisations in my country have widely introduced new, innovative and systematic models for employee participation in decision-making relating to working practices and capital investment.

St. 17 Living conditions A practical emphasis on ethics, justice and equity increases in working life, and strongly influences the development of business and conduct of professions in my country.

St. 22 Sustainability & development

The widespread use of e-commerce removes obstacles to accessing products, services and employment in the peripheral regions in my country, increasing their competitiveness and stemming depopulation.

St. 26 Sustainability & development

EU enlargement shifts economic resources towards accession and possible pre-accession countries, diminishing disposable income in the EU15 and creating the conditions for persistent unemployment of at least 10% across the EU15.

St. 31 Working conditions New organisational procedures and systems that turn firms and other organisations into "learning organisations" have been widely adopted, and not just by a small vanguard, in my country.

Policy Optionsbased on future impacts of key trends Case 2


Factors influencing the implementation of foresight methods

Popper (2008)


Intrinsic Nature MethodologyIssues

Popper (2008)


Popper (2008)

Methods Mix MethodologyIssues

Popper (2008)


R. Popper (2008)R. Popper (2008)

The Foresight Diamond

Capability to gather and process knowledge

Popper (2008)

MethodologyIssues


Geo-R&D Context

Methods that rely on the availability of knowledge about emerging or cutting-edge technologies are more often used in high-R&D intensity countries. E.g.:

• roadmapping(in North America)

• modelling(in high-R&D Asia)

Popper (2008)

MethodologyIssues


Popper (2008)

Codified Outputs MethodologyIssues


Popper (2008)

Participation scale MethodologyIssues


Popper (2008)

Time horizon MethodologyIssues


Key Factors influencing the implementation of foresight methods

• Very high influence– Intrinsic nature– Methods Mix

• High influence– Capability to gather and process knowledge– Geo-R&D context– Codified outputs

• Moderate influence– Participation scale– Time horizon– …

MethodologyIssues

Popper (2008)


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Implementation of different foresight techniques · Manchester Institute of Innovation Research...

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