Impending Crisis · 2020. 7. 14. · Survey Design 65 Companies 78% CEOs 57% also participated in...
Transcript of Impending Crisis · 2020. 7. 14. · Survey Design 65 Companies 78% CEOs 57% also participated in...
© 2020 Alderman & Company®
Impending Crisis in the Commercial Aviation IndustrySupply Chain
July 14, 2020
1
© 2020 Alderman & Company®
Executive Summary
• Industry has never seen this kind of fall-off in demand • Expectation is 2020 and 2021 will be devastating• Demand will not recover until after 2022• Liquidity is tightening• Outlook is dire• Government support (CARES / PPP) has helped• Continuing government support is needed
2
© 2020 Alderman & Company® 3
Survey Design65 Companies
78% CEOs 57% also participated in our May survey
PopulationSenior executives and owners of privately owned companies in the commercial aviation supply chain
SamplingOur proprietary database,
Data CollectionThird-party survey collection software
Period June 11 – June 23
2
© 2020 Alderman & Company®
0
20
40
60
80
100
2019 2020
What was your change in Revenue May '19 to May '20 ?
4
Down 35%
Survey Question 1
© 2020 Alderman & Company® 5
6 months or more after
vaccine63%
-96%-81%
-100%
-90%
-80%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
1-MAR 15-MAR 29-MAR 12-APR 26-APR 10-MAY 24-MAY 7-JUN 21-JUN
TSA DataUS Passenger Traffic
2020 Vs. 2019
© 2020 Alderman & Company®
August5% December
6%
Once vaccine 26%
6-months after vaccine
17%
12-month after vaccine
20%
2-years or more after vaccine
26%
When do you expect traffic to be back to pre-pandemic levels?
6
6 months or more after
vaccine63%
Survey Question 2
© 2020 Alderman & Company®
Yes 35.4%
Probably 26.2%
Maybe, if recovery is swift 18.5%
Maybe not, if recovery is slow 13.8%
No 6.2%
Do you have sufficient liquidity?
38.5%
7
Survey Question 3
© 2020 Alderman & Company® 8
Less concerned now 40%
No change 12%
More concerned now
48%
Are you more concerned than you were 30-days ago?
Survey Question 4
© 2020 Alderman & Company®
32%
26%
20%
11% 11%
Cutting expenses tomatch decline
Cutting expensesahead of decline
Operating efficiently New businessdevelopment
Investing in growth
What is your current focus?
9
58%
Survey Question 5
© 2020 Alderman & Company®
Follow-on Webinar Polling Data
• A week after the survey, we invited our guests to a webinar• More than 30 CEOs, CFOs, and major shareholders attended• Active input confirmed survey findings• Select webinar polling data included on next slide
10
© 2020 Alderman & Company®
Key FindingsWebinar Polling
11
© 2020 Alderman & Company® 12
The pandemic has caused the most significant downturn in the history of commercial aviation and we want to help companies within the supply chain pivot to cope. If you’re a company in the middle market of the commercial aviation supply chain and want to explore exit options, contact us at:[email protected]
Founded in 2001, Alderman & Company® is a specializedinvestment bank exclusively providing sell-side M&A advisoryservices to middle market companies within the global aerospaceand defense industry. Our clients include family-ownedenterprises, microcap public companies, divisions of largecorporations, and portfolio companies of private equity firms.Our services are built on comprehensive industry knowledge andyears of process expertise providing business owners value-maximizing solutions for exiting their businesses.
Alderman & Company®35 Warrington RoundDanbury, Connecticut06810 USAwww.aldermanco.com