IMPACT OF EU ENLARGEMENT ON THE

POST-COMMUNIST TRANSFORMATION

byPAL TAMAS

[IS HAS/Corvinus UniversityBudapest]

INTERNAL PERIODIZATION

1. 1993-1998 illusions: Europe as an inverted utopia, symbolical political projects, demonstrative pioneer actions in sectors and localities

2. 1998-2004 intensive learning, inventarization, implementation : „the best period”

3. 2004-2008 „easy money”, new normalities, less mental change then expected

4. 2008-2010 crisis, the new [semi]peripheries

IMPACTSa. Regulative effectsb. Mobilization of internal resources and

energiesc. Competitive effects in policies and

reformsd. Kaanan effects in image-making for

national elitese. Foreign policy effects- regulation failuref. New geographies [internal, perimetrical]

MODEL QUESTIONS IN THE 90IES

democracy growth Social cohesion

American model

High Moderate Low

European models

High Moderate High

„small tigers” in EA

Low - moderate

High –very high

High, but specific cultural tools

Costs of transition„Soft transion” is a primary goal both

for the elites and the massesThe losers” problemEU strategies of „social insurance”

[broad distribution of the costs]Neo-liberals versus new statism

Impact scenarios [Darvas, 2010]

DILEMMASa.National state as a policy tool [development

and crisis]b. Does the EU defend from the extreme

globalization, ot its an agent of it? [laguna effects]

c.Diffusion of the European Social Model to the East?

d. European citizenships [versus national and subnational ones]

e. The LIMES effects [stabilization, destabilization]

Long-term effectsa. Importance of cultural

environments. Pre-1989 of longer historical cycles?

b. Continuities/discontinuities of the developmental state in the region

c. Reduction of the „social block” in the GDP –short term, ot long term?

CONCLUSIONS for the 2010ies

1.National models of capitalism2. After 2008/2010 reconstruction of

the national state, as regulator3.Stabilization of internal

semiperipheries in the EU4.Sharper welfare gap between EU-15

and EU-125.Beginning of intensive knowledge

worker migration

Support structure for EU EE [ ]