Immigrants, the Labour Market, and Potential

Impacts of Skilled Migration Policy Changes

Lesleyanne Hawthorne

Professor – International Workforce

Second Canada-Australia Round Table on

Foreign Qualification Recognition

VANCOUVER

20-22 March 2013

Migration to Australia by 2011: Migrants = 27% of Population Plus 20% Have Overseas-Born Parents (Hugo 2012)

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

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300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

1947

1949

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1955

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1971

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1987

1989

1991

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2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

Pers

on

s

Year

Natural Increase

Net Migration

Australia’s Reliance on Migrant Professionals: By

Field 2006 Compared to 2001

Occupation 2006 % Overseas-Born

2001 % Overseas-Born

Engineering 52% 48% Computing 57% 48% Medicine 45% 46% Science 37% Commerce/ business 40% 36% Architecture 36% Accountancy 44% 36% Arts/ humanities 31% Nursing 25% 24% Teaching 25% 20% Source: 2001 and 2006 Census data analysis, Australia and Canada; The Impact of Economic Selection Policy on Labour Market Outcomes for Degree-Qualified Migrants in Canada and Australia, L Hawthorne, Institute for Research on Public Policy, Vol 14 No 5, 2008, Ottawa

Trend 1: Dominance of Skilled Migration in Permanent

Migration Program - 68% by 2012

2012-13: Permanent Migration Program

Targets

2011-12 2012-13

Planning Level 185,000 190,000

Skill 125,755 129,250

Regional Skilled 16,471 16,000

Family 58,604 60,185

Special Eligibility 639 565

Humanitarian 13,750 20,000

Growth in Australian Employer Sponsorship:

2003-04 to 2011-12 (Permanent Migration)

Trend 2: The ‘Privatisation’ of Skilled Migration -

131,341 Temporary Employer-Sponsored Migrants by

2011-12 (457 Visa)

By 2009:

70% of all permanent and temporary labour migrants

sponsored

Attractions!

Demand-driven (tap-on tap-off)

Employer power to select

Speed of processing

99% employment outcomes/ immediate earnings

Constrained location (up to 4 years)

Uncapped: 2011-12 annual growth = 42% (all fields)

Medicine = 17,910 arrivals 2005-06 to 2010-11 (versus 2,910

permanent skilled migrants)

4/5 in 457 category: Area of need (etc)

Growth: 34,000 (around 6 years back) to 125,070 2011-12

Impact of Employer Preference on Source Country:

Permanent Versus Temporary Labour Migrant Selection

PERMANENT SKILLED TEMPORARY SKILLED

DIAC: Employer (457 Visa):

Top 10 Permanent Source Countries: General Skilled Migration PA’s 2005-06 to 2009-10 (Total All Sources =13,880)

Top 10 Temporary Source Countries: 457 Long-Stay Business Visa PA’s 2005-06 to 2009-10 (Total All Sources =34,870)

1. UK: 4,120 2. India: 1,510 3. Malaysia: 1,300 4. China: 970 5. Philippines: 510 6. South Africa: 500 7. Republic of Korea: 480 8. Egypt: 420 9. Singapore: 390 10. Ireland: 350

1. UK: 9,350 2. India: 6,420 3. Philippines: 1,850 4. South Africa: 1,770 5. Malaysia: 1,570 6. Ireland: 1,560 7. China: 1,380 8. Zimbabwe: 1,180 9. Canada: 950 10. United States: 830

Source: L Hawthorne (2011), Competing for Skills: Migration Policies and Trends in New Zealand and Australia, Department of Immigration and Citizenship, Canberra.

Impact of Employer-Sponsorship on Labour Source Country:

457 Visas 2011-12

2011-12 % Total

UK 28,730 23.00%

India 22,080 17.70%

Ireland 10,130 8.10%

Philippines 9,170 7.30%

USA 8,670 6.90%

China 4,800 3.80%

South Africa 4,090 3.30%

Canada 3,260 2.60%

France 2,410 1.90%

Germany 2,350 1.90%

Malaysia 1,880 1.50%

2011-12 Top 10: Permanent Migrant Source

Countries

Trend 3: Growth in Two-Step Migration –

Place of Selection 2011-12 (Permanent Skilled)

Trend 4: SkillSelect (July 2012+) –

Merging Temporary and Permanent Processes

New Zealand model:

2004+: Transformed

Selection = 80-88% onshore (employed or with job offer)

Australian developments:

Priority processing 2010+ - Favours sponsored migrants

July 2011 new points test - Favours advanced English, higher

degrees, employment experience, in-demand fields)

Reduced: ‘Independent’ skilled migration + Occupational veiling

‘cap’

SkillSelect – Entrenches 2-step migration (virtually ‘trawling’ x 2

years)

Immediate vs subsequent offers - Once eligible for selection)

Health Case Study:

DIAC Occupational Ceilings (2012-13)

Total:

Up to 29,880 migrant health professionals to be admitted

Select field:

Nurses: 15,660

Doctors: 4,560

Pharmacists: 1,380

Medical imaging professionals: 1,080

Dentists: 720

Physiotherapists: 840

Occupational therapists: 720

Optometrists and orthoptists: 360

Podiatrists: 300 (etc)

Additional health professional migration:

Uncounted family, humanitarian and spouse arrivals

Trend 5: Scale of Skilled Migration in Regulated

Fields – 2005-06 to 2009-10 Permanent and

Temporary Categories

PERMANENT SKILLED

66% of intake = professionals

Top professions –

Accounting (32%)

Computing (23%)

Architect/ Building (9%)

Engineering (9%)

Nursing (5%)

Top trades –

Chef/baker (30%)

Engineering (14%)

Building (14%)

Electrical (12%)

Hairdressing (12%)

TEMPORARY SKILLED:

58% of total intake = professionals

Top professions (457 visa) –

Nursing (25%)

Computing (13%)

Business (10%)

Engineering (10%)

Sales/ Marketing (8%)

Medicine

Scientist

Teachers/ Lecturers

Top trades –

Mechanica/ fabrication

trades (34%)

Strengths/ challenges:

1. NZ (12% population resident 2010/ 41% growth 2012)

2. International students (630,000 enrolled by 2010)

3. Temporary labour migration (457 visa - 131,341)

4. Permanent skilled migration (107,656)

5. Dependents of GSM migrants

6. Family and Humanitarian category migrants

Qualification Recognition for Migrants with Skills –

Challenges by Key Entry Pathways

Early Employment Outcomes (All Immigration Categories):

Engineering Case Study - 2001-2006 Degree-Qualified Arrivals

by 2006

Source Country Professional

Total Employed

Not in Labourforce or

Unemployed

South Africa 67% 92% 8%

UK/ Ireland 62% 89% 11%

North Europe 58% 84% 16%

Canada/ USA 53% 87% 13%

Malaysia 42% 72% 28%

East Europe 35% 69% 31%

India 35% 77% 23%

Philippines 28% 82% 18%

Middle East/ North Africa 28% 57% 43%

Vietnam 24% 55% 45%

China 21% 55% 45%

Source: L Hawthorne (2008), The Impact of Economic Selection Policy on Labour Market Outcomes for Degree-Qualified Migrants

in Canada and Australia, Institute for Research on Public Policy, Vol 14 No 5; L Hawthorne (2008), Migration and Education:

Quality Assurance and Mutual Recognition of Qualifications – Australia Report, UNESCO, http://unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0017/001798/179842E.pdf , Paris.

Foreign Credential Recognition Policy Reform:

Australian Timeline and Outcomes

Date

Foreign Credential Recognition Initiatives

1980s

Grassroots advocacy

Growing demand for reform (social justice and economic efficiency)

1989+ Federally led and funded FCR reforms:

Target - 9 professions and trades

Focus - Recognition of prior learning/ CBA

1996 Parliamentary review:

Best gains = Nursing, select trades, engineering

Others = Minimal

1999 Pre-migration FCR screening for skilled PA’s (condition of eligibility)

2006 Parliamentary review:

Many residual problems

2006-2013 Rapid growth in 457 visas, admitted with ‘conditional’ registration

2010-12 Parliamentary review:

Medicine only (at a time of national systemic change) - problems

Pre-Migration Screening 1999+:

Permanent Migration Categories

Re Economic =

MANDATORY

Family = X

Humanitarian = X

English Testing (IELTS 6+) = MANDATORY

Benefits of Changed Selection Criteria by 2006:

Skilled Category Employment Outcomes @ 6

Months

72%77%

82%

69%

99%

83%

20%11% 13%

23%

1%12%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

OffshoreAustralian

Sponsored

OffshoreBusiness

ENS/RSMS

OffshoreIndependent

SkilledDesignated

AreaSponsored

OnshoreBusiness

andENS/RSMS

OnshoreFormer

OverseasStudents

Employed Unemployed

Wage Growth for Skilled Migrants – By 2006

(Impact of Screening and Occupational Demand)

4%6%

27%

16%

12%

8%9%

2%

9%

6%

14%

6%

15%13%

10%11%

6%

13%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

$0-$385 $386-$481

$482-$577

$578-$673

$674-$769

$770-$961

$962-$1499

$1500-$1999

$2000+

MODL Not MODL

BUT Problems of Over-Qualification:

Employment Outcomes for 2001-2006 Degree-Qualified

Engineer Arrivals (All Migration Categories, 2006)

Source Country Professional Employment

Total Employed

Not in Labourforce or

Unemployed

South Africa 67% 92% 8%

UK/ Ireland 62% 89% 11%

North Europe 58% 84% 16%

Canada/ USA 53% 87% 13%

Malaysia 42% 72% 28%

East Europe 35% 69% 31%

India 35% 77% 23%

Philippines 28% 82% 18%

Middle East/ North Africa 28% 57% 43%

Vietnam 24% 55% 45%

China 21% 55% 45%

Source: Analysis of 2006 Australian Census data by L Hawthorne.

Policy Response 1 – Investing in Strategies to

Bridge Professionals into Work:

Engineering Case Study (10 Models including….)

1. Language training: English for engineers

2. Accreditation barriers: Taking additional subjects in local engineering standards; completing mandatory internships

3. Examination preparation: Intensive training to prepare for pre-registration examinations

4. Technical upgrades: Computer skills for engineers (eg AutoCAD)

5. Employment: Job-seeking strategies for engineers, including orientation to professional engineering in the host country

6. Further engineering study: eg Masters of Computer Engineering, PhD

7. Career conversion: IT graduate diplomas or management degrees

Policy Response 2 – Filtering for English Ability:

Impact of English Testing on Registration in Select Health

Fields (Occupational English Test - 2005, 2010, 2011)

53%

20%

40% 38% 39%

46%

37%

43%

19%

47%

34%

28%

32% 34%

52%

17%

62%

32%

38% 40% 41%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Can

did

ate

pass

ra

te (

%)

2005

2010

2011

Policy Response 3 – Development of Innovative

Registration Pathways: Medicine Case Study 2008+

Specialists

? X

Fa

st

Med

ium

Slo

w

Using the Empirical Data: Australian Medical

Council Examination Pass Rates (1978-2010)

MCQ:

Overall – 82% pass rate (most candidates pass over 1-2 attempts)

Clinical:

Overall – 85% pass rate (most over 1-2 attempts)

BUT – Only 61% proceed from passing the MCQ to attempt the

Clinical exam

RESULT – Just 43% of IMGs who commence the MCQ complete

and secure full registration

Competent Authority Pathway 2008+:

Jurisdictions of past registration – 6

Countries of training – 55 (by 2010)

Global attractiveness – dramatic jump in UK/ Ireland medical

migration (c3,000 arrivals)

Policy Response 4 – Recruiting Former International Students (IS):

International Students’ Full Time Employment Outcomes at 4

Months (Health Fields)

Medicine:

98.8 per cent of international students employed full-time,

compared to 99.7 per cent of domestic graduates

Dentistry:

95.5 per cent compared to 93.5 per cent of domestic graduates

Pharmacy:

96.1 per cent compared to 97.6 per cent

Nursing (diploma to degree upgrade courses):

71.4 per cent (+17.6 per cent working part time) compared to 91.7

per cent

Physiotherapy:

66.7 per cent (with a further 15 per cent working part-time compared to

93.7 per cent

Comparison:

Employment rates for migrants by field in first 5 years across all

immigration categories – medicine (53%), dentistry (37%)

Policy Response 4 – Recruiting Former International Students:

International Students’ Full Time Employment Outcomes at 4

Months (Non-Health Fields)

Business and commerce:

39.7 per cent of international students employed full-time compared to

76.4 per cent of domestic graduates

Accounting:

35.2 per cent compared to 82.7 per cent

7,751 IS seeking employment (compared to 2,852 domestic

graduates)

Information technology:

42.3 per cent compared to 78.0 per cent

4,554 IS seeking employment (compared to 2,210)

Engineering:

43.6 per cent compared to 86.4 per cent

1,236 IS seeking employment (compared to 1,341)

Select Additional Best Practice Qualification

Recognition Initiatives

1. Investing in the knowledge base:

NOOSR Country Education Profiles x 119 (Federal Government:

Employment and Education Department)

2. Committing to bilateral/ multilateral agreements:

Region-specific (eg Trans-Tasman, ASEAN initiatives) and Field-

specific (Federal Government and regulatory body stakeholders, eg:

Engineering: Washington and Sydney Accords (including capacity-building focus)

Accounting: Ireland, HK, Canada, Malaysia, India

Architecture: APEC Architect Project

Dentistry: Australia and Canada - Etc!…

3. Developing the Australian Qualifications Framework:

Definition of 10 level framework to map all qualifications against

(Federal Government and education sector providers)

Select Best Practice Qualifications

Recognition Initiatives….

4. Assessing and accrediting pre-migration: VETASSESS – Fee for service assessment body operating in 20+

countries; provision of ‘gap training’ trade modules offshore pre-migration (with Federal employment department and trades bodies)

5. Investing in English language training and field-specific

bridging course provision: Exam and employment preparation courses

Industry internships (Federal Immigration Department and State

Governments, with courses delivered by state providers):

6. Providing competence-based assessment and courses:

To assess level of knowledge/ experience rather than place

qualification was gained (Federal Government and regulatory bodies,

education sector providers)

7. Global collaborative assessment partnerships

Pooling joint examination items for global administration (Canadian

and Australian Medical Councils 2007+, based on 7,000 MCQ items)

Employment Outcomes - Skilled and Family

Permanent Migration Program 2009-11 (CSAM)

(‘Skilled job’ = Professional/ Managerial or Trade)

Migration

Stream

Skilled Job

@ 6 Months Skilled Job

@ 1 Year

Unemployed

@ 1 Year Employed @ 1

Year +

Earnings

Skilled

PA

68% 73% 2% 94%

$56,000

Skilled

Spouse

30% 26% 11% 64%

$48,000

Family

Partner

24% 28% 16% 57%

$45,000

BUT – Residual Challenges for Australia!

The imperative to:

1. Invest in family and humanitarian migrants’ transition –

Access to English training and full qualification recognition

2. Address ‘technological fit’ – Reflecting high migration levels

from non-OECD source countries

3. Assist temporary labour migrants to convert - From

‘limited’ to full registration (a growing issue!)

4. Address labour market segmentation for migrants – Eg

nurses ‘trapped’ in the geriatric care sector during and after

the recognition process

5. Deal with inappropriate pressures – To facilitate

qualification recognition for trade benefit (eg Filipino nurses)

6. Balance social justice, economic efficiency and societal

protection issues

In Conclusion - Which Values Should Determine

Recognition In the Context of Conflicting Policy Agendas?

1. Social justice and human rights: For new migrants? (eg temporary residents or former students)

For longer resident migrants?

The domestic population?

2. Economic efficiency: A priority for Immigration Department/ government/ industry

3. Labour market demand: To address urgent needs of employers and regions

4. Global competition for skilled workers: To provide governments/ employers with a competitive edge

5. Protection of standards and public safety: The key mandate for regulatory bodies

6. Professional protectionism: Driving regulatory bodies to protect members/ rights (in the

name of ‘public protection’)?

Select Sources

Birrell, B, Hawthorne, L, Richardson, S (2006), Evaluation of the General Skilled Migration Program, Government of

Australia, Canberra

Department of Immigration and Citizenship (2012), Report on 2011-12 Migration Program (DIAC, Canberra)

Department of Immigration and Citizenship (2012), Report on 2011-12 457 Visa Program (DIAC, Canberra)

Department of Immigration and Citizenship (2012), The Outlook for Net Overseas Migration September 2012, (DIAC,

Canberra)

Department of Immigration and Citizenship (2012), The Continuous Survey of Australia’s Migrants – Cohorts 1-5 Reports,

2009-2011, (DIAC, Canberra)

Hugo, G (2012), ‘2012 Migration Update Report’, Keynote presentation, 2012 Migration Update Conference, Adelaide, 12

October

Hawthorne, L (2011), Competing for Skills – Migration Policies and Trends in New Zealand and Australia, Government of

New Zealand, Wellington, 2011

Hawthorne, L (2012), ‘Designer Immigrants? International Students and Two-Step Migration’, Chapter 23 in The Sage

Handbook of International Higher Education, ed. D Deardorff, D de Witt, T Adams & J Heyl, Sage, New York

Hawthorne, L (2012), Health Workforce Migration to Australia – Policy Trends and Outcomes 2004-2010, Health

Workforce Australia, Adelaide, http://www.hwa.gov.au/work-programs/international-health-professionals/health-

profession-migration

Hawthorne, L (2012), ‘International Medical Migration – What is the Future for Australia?’, Special Issue, Medical Journal

of Australia Open, Vol 197 Issue 2, 23 July, Medical Workforce – Towards 2025 Volume 2 Supplement 1 18-21.

Hawthorne, L (2008), The Impact of Economic Selection Policy on Labour Market Outcomes for Degree-Qualified

Migrants in Canada and Australia, Institute for Research on Public Policy, Vol 14 No 5

Hawthorne, L (2008), Migration and Education: Quality Assurance and Mutual Recognition of Qualifications – Australia

Report, UNESCO, http://unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0017/001798/179842E.pdf , Paris

Hawthorne, L & To, A (2013), English Language Skill Registration Standards in Medical and Allied Health Fields,

Australian Health Practitioner Regulation Agency, Melbourne

Hawthorne, L & Wong, W (2011), Canada and Australia Backgrounder, First Canada-Australia Round Table on Foreign

Qualification Recognition, Public Policy Forum, Ottawa