IMA-S (base rate linked floating bonds index) Index 1 ... · IFIX (real estate funds index) IRF-M...
12
Market Report Year VI. Nº 60. October/2018 Index Note: Data collected untill 09/30/2018 and does not reflect any future changes that may have occurred after such date. CONFIDENTIAL - EXCLUSIVELY FOR INTERNAL USE 1. Market Performance stocks investment funds macroeconomic 1 1. Market Performance 2. Macroeconomic Indicators 3. Securities Offerings - Overview 3. Securities Offerings - Selected Assets 4. Secondary Market - Trade Information 5. Securities Offerings - International Comparison 6. Regulated Markets - Totals 6. Regulated Markets - Participants 6. Regulated Markets - Investment Funds 6. Regulated Markets - Registered Companies 6. Regulated Markets - Other Assets 96,9 109,2 83,1 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 1.1. Equity indexes (MSCI) - trailing 12 months (USD) Emerging Markets Developed Markets Brazil Source: Bloomberg 3,8 3,1 9,0 -4,1 4,2 4,8 2,9 4,8 4,8 21,0 3,3 1,4 Ibovespa IbrX-100 S&P 500 IFIX (real estate funds index) IRF-M (fixed rate bonds index) IMA-S (base rate linked floating bonds index) IMA-B (inflation linked bonds index) IHFA (mutual funds index) CDI Overnight Base Rate BRL/USD CPI CRB (commodities) 1.2. Indicators - Percentage Accumulated YTD Return - Sep/2018 Sources: Bloomberg, Economática; IBGE.
Transcript of IMA-S (base rate linked floating bonds index) Index 1 ... · IFIX (real estate funds index) IRF-M...
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Market Report Year VI. Nº 60. October/2018
Index
Note: Data collected untill 09/30/2018 and does not reflect any future changes that may have occurred after such date.
CONFIDENTIAL - EXCLUSIVELY FOR INTERNAL USE
1. Market Performance
sto
cks
inve
stm
ent
fun
ds
mac
roec
on
om
ic
1
1. Market Performance
2. Macroeconomic Indicators
3. Securities Offerings - Overview
3. Securities Offerings - Selected Assets
4. Secondary Market - Trade Information
5. Securities Offerings - International Comparison
6. Regulated Markets - Totals
6. Regulated Markets - Participants
6. Regulated Markets - Investment Funds
6. Regulated Markets - Registered Companies
6. Regulated Markets - Other Assets
96,9
109,2
83,1
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18
1.1. Equity indexes (MSCI) - trailing 12 months (USD)
Emerging Markets Developed Markets Brazil
Source: Bloomberg
3,8
3,1
9,0
-4,1
4,2
4,8
2,9
4,8
4,8
21,0
3,3
1,4
Ibovespa
IbrX-100
S&P 500
IFIX (real estate funds index)
IRF-M (fixed rate bonds index)
IMA-S (base rate linked floating bonds index)
IMA-B (inflation linked bonds index)
IHFA (mutual funds index)
CDI Overnight Base Rate
BRL/USD
CPI
CRB (commodities)
1.2. Indicators - Percentage Accumulated YTD Return -Sep/2018
Sources: Bloomberg, Economática; IBGE.
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2. Macroeconomic Indicators
Gross Debt: sep/2018. Gross Debt Estimates correspond to the simple average of Itau Unibanco e Banco Bradesco most recent estimates.
CPI: oct/18; GDP (rolling 4 quarters): jun/18; BRL/USD (PTAX ask): 10/29/18; Base Rate SELIC: 10/29/18. Estimates: Focus Report of 10/26/18.
Primary and Nominal: sep/2018. Estimate: Focus Report of 10/26/18.
FDI and Current Account: sep/2018. Estimates: Focus Report of 10/26/18.
Sources: BCB e IBGE.
2
4,5
1,4
3,64
6,5
4,4
1,4
3,71
6,5
4,2
2,5
3,75
8,0
CPI (% trailing 12 month accumulated)
GDP Growth (%) FX (BRL/USD) SELIC Base Rate (%)
2.1. Macroeconomics
Last Value 2018 Estimate 2019 Estimate
77,2
76,6
77,7
Gross Debt (%GDP)
2.2. Gross Debt
Last Value 2018 Estimate 2019 Estimate
-1,3
-7,2
-1,9
-7,2
-1,5
-6,8
Primary Surplus (%GDP - accumulated trailing 12 months)
Nominal Result (%GDP - accumulated trailing 12 months)
2.3. Public Finances
Last Value 2018 Estimate 2019 Estimate
70,8
-14,5
67,0
-17,0
70,0
-30,0
FDI (US$ bi - accumulated trailing 12 months)Current Account Result (US$ bi - accumulated trailing 12 months)
2.4. Balance of Payments
Last Value 2018 Estimate 2019 Estimate
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3. Securities Offerings - Overview
(1) Values and quantities include: stocks+BDR, corporate bonds, commercial paper, Real Estate ABS, Agrobusiness ABS, CDOs, Real Estate Funds and Private Equity Funds (and corresponding FoFs) (2) Corpoate bonds – excludes lease offerings.
Source: CVM
3
137103
57 47 7089
55
521
669722
637541
796
666
5
2 3
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (set)
3.1. Number of offerings
Registered Offerings (ICVM400) Restricted Efforts Offerings (ICVM476) Exemptions of Register (ICVM400)
54,6 55,7
29,043,5
20,8
48,5
22,6
115,4 117,5
142,7126,3
120,3
171,0
181,4
0,0 0,1 0,1
50
100
150
200
250
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (set)
R$ (bi)
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3. Securities Offerings - Selected Assets
Source: CVM
4
13
20
2 2 3
11
3
4
7
14
5
10
15
20
25
30
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (set)
3.2. Equity (number)
14,3
23,9
15,4 16,7
4,3
21,8
6,8
-
-
-1,6
6,5
17,0
-5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (set)
R$ (bi)
Registered Offerings (ICVM400)
Restricted Efforts Offerings (ICVM476)
19 16 8 9 4 10 4
203
252 277
205
166
254248
50
100
150
200
250
300
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (set)
3.3. Corporate bonds (number)
15,0 10,9 3,7 10,6 1,9 6,4 2,0
71,3 57,9 68,8 52,0 61,8
81,8
116,6
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (set)
R$ (bi)
Registered Offerings (ICVM400)
Restricted Efforts Offerings (ICVM476)
2710 7 5
2210 7
78 115136
121 8293
58
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (set)
3.4. Real Estate ABS (number)
3,2 2,2 0,9 0,3
2,4 2,2 2,0
6,9
13,8 15,7
9,3
15,6
5,4 3,5
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (set)
R$ (bi)
Registered Offerings (ICVM400)
Restricted Efforts Offerings (ICVM476)
4 38 10
19 21
63 7
12 6
19
45
27
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (set)
3.5. Agrobusiness ABS (number)
0,2 0,2 1,4
3,6
8,8 9,7
2,1 0,1 0,8 0,5
1,0
3,6 2,7
1,60
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (set)
R$ (bi)
Registered Offerings (ICVM400) Restricted Efforts Offerings (ICVM476)
48
34
1610 13
2632
23
27
2040
50
4542
1
2
1
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (set)
3.6. Real Estate Funds (number)
14,0
10,6
4,7 5,8
2,2
5,2
8,8
1,2
3,0
1,7
4,0
3,9
2,8
4,2
0,0
0,1
0,0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (set)
R$ (bi)
Registered Offerings (ICVM400) Restricted Efforts Offerings (ICVM476)
Exemptions of Register (ICVM400)
8 9 5 4 2 4 1
52
7168
10592
121 121
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (set)
3.7. Private Equity Funds (number)
3,3 4,2 1,1 3,6 0,4 0,6
11,0
17,918,3
40,8
17,520,5 20,8
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (set)
R$ (bi)
Registered Offerings (ICVM400)
Restricted Efforts Offerings (ICVM476)
16 11 11 7 7 7 2
52
26
53 59 53
124
114
42
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (set)
3.8. Receivables Funds (number)
3,9 3,51,8 2,9 0,9
2,30,3
2,8 3,1 7,4 4,6
2,7
13,7
10,80,0 0,0
0,1
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (set)
R$ (bi)
Registered Offerings (ICVM400)
Restricted Efforts Offerings (ICVM476)
Exemptions of Register (ICVM400)
2
110
171156
97
72
10056
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (set)
3.9. Commercial Paper (number)
0,7
22,020,9
30,3
13,08,8
27,2 23,9
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (set)
R$ (bi)
Registered Offerings (ICVM400)
Restricted Efforts Offerings (ICVM476)
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4. Secondary Market - Trade Information
5
6,36,6 6,4
6,16,6
7,8
10,1
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Sep/18
Ave
rage
dai
ly v
olu
me
(R$
bi)
4.1. Equity - Round Lot
Source: B3
0,5
0,70,8
1,2 1,2
2,3
1,1
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (set)
Ave
rage
dai
ly v
olum
e (R
$ bi
)
4.2. Corporate bonds
Fonte: SND
341
394
286
309 303
354
294
84 83 82 77 71 74 70
22 20 20 17 19 19 17
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (set)
Nu
mb
er
of c
on
trac
ts (m
illi
on
s)
4.3. Derivatives
CDI Futures USD/BRL Futures Ibovespa FuturesSource: B3
14,4
31,6
20,521,5
22,5
30,1
37,6
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Sep/2018
Ave
rage
of t
ota
l dai
ly v
olu
me
(R$
mil
lio
ns)
4.4. Real Estate Funds
Source: B3
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5. Securities Offerings – International Comparison
5.1. IPOs – Stocks* 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (sep)
Total – Global (US$ bi) 275 183,1 132,4 183,4 241,2 206,2 132,9 209,0 150,4
Total – Global (number of offerings) 1.647 1.717 1.344 1.273 1.618 1.670 1.370 1.938 1.166
Brazil (US$ bi) 6,2 4,3 2,3 8,4 0,2 0,3 0,2 6,3 2,0
Brazil (number of offerings) 11 11 3 11 1 1 1 10 3
Mexico (US$ bi) 1,4 0,5 1,2 2,9 1 1,9 0,3 4,1 3,4
Mexico (number of offerings) 5 2 3 5 3 5 3 6 13
China (US$ bi) 71,3 41,3 15,1 - 12,5 25,6 23,9 44,7 44,4
China (number of offerings) 348 278 149 - 125 219 227 487 138
Indonesia (US$ bi) 3,4 2,2 1,1 1,7 0,8 0,9 1 0,7 1,0
Indonesia (number of offerings) 23 25 22 30 24 16 15 36 37
Australia (US$ bi) 6,8 1,3 0,4 5,7 15,5 6,5 4,2 4,3 4,5
Australia (number of offerings) 93 104 44 57 73 94 89 100 61
5.2. Foreign Currency-Denominated Bonds**
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (sep)
Brazil (US$ bi) 43,8 39,2 37,0 36,1 38,1 10,3 24,4 52,9 27,2
Latin America and Caribbean (ex-Brazil) (US$ bi)
76,4 64,9 75,9 100 87,9 51,9 84,5 88,7 46,7
Mexico 47,3 30,6 46,2 50,2 40 29,9 59,1 45,9 30,5
Chile 5,4 7 9,5 11,7 14,4 9,2 3,3 17,9 1,6
Argentina 2,9 1,5 1,4 4,5 4,3 4,1 8 8,7 2,7
* Values converted to USD considering the offering date. Excludes ADR/BDR/GDR offered abroad by Brazilian companies. Country data is aggregated by location of the exchange which hosted the offering. ** Only non-financial corporate offerings, country data aggregated by “ultimate county of risk”, that is, the country in which the majority of the economic risk of the issuer is supported. Values converted to USD considering the offering date. Source: Bloomberg
6
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6. Regulated Markets - Totals
Note: There is some double counting due to investment funds assets. Sources: CVM, ANBIMA, CETIP.
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7Ja
n-14
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-1
4
Sep-
14
Nov
-14
Jan-
15
Mar
-15
May
-15
Jul-1
5
Sep-
15
Nov
-15
Jan-
16
Mar
-16
May
-16
Jul-1
6
Sep-
16
Nov
-16
Jan-
17
Mar
-17
May
-17
Jul-1
7
Sep-
17
Nov
-17
Jan-
18
Mar
-18
May
-18
Jul-1
8
Sep-
18
US$ (tri) 6.1. Regulated Markets (Sep/2018)
NAV ICVM 555 Funds (ex-FoF) NAV non-ICVM/555 Funds (ex-FoF) Derivatives Total Gross Notional
Corporate Bonds Commercial Paper Real Estate ABS
Agrobusiness ABS Stock Market Total Market Cap Total
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6. Regulated Markets - Participants
6.2. Participants (number) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Registered companies, including foreign and subsidized, with active status
756 767 750 725 690 672
Registered Investment Funds (nov/17) 13.165 14.278 14.875 15.094 14.936 16.182
Registered Asset Managers* (sum) 3.086 3.347 3535 3662 3353 3.411
Fiduciary Administrators (exclusive) 29 36
Asset Managers (exclusive) 3227 3281
Both 97 94
Registered Custodians 87 88 189 153 144 145
Registered Bookkeepers 36 33 35 53
Registered Brokerage Firms (trading) 106 104 99 93 84 74
Registered Brokerage Firms (distribution) 133 129 115 109 107 94
Registered Brokers 9.969 8.218 5.393 5.123 5.980 6.596
Registered Independent Auditors 427 419 417 406 408 391
Registered Rating Agencies 5 7 7 7 7 7
Registered Research Analysts 713 723 721 712 618 424
Registered Investment Consultants 534 582 632 649 648 686
Registered Non-Resident Investors 19.023 19.140 20.900 20.899 18.429 19.416
Total 48.004 47.802 47.669 47.665 45.439 48.151
• Distinction after ICVM 558/15. Sources: CVM. Does not include B3 stock exchange.
8
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6. Regulated Markets - Investment Funds
6.2.1. Investment Funds - International Comparison*
2015 (jun)
2015 (dec)
2016 (jun)
2016 (dec)
2017 (jun)
2017 (dec)
2018 (jun)
Total – World (US$ bi) 39.201 38.155 39.329 40.554 44.982 49.294 50.010
Total – World (number) 104.270 106.167 108.032 110.252 113.185 113.847 114.755
Brazil (US$ bi) 911 744 984 1.061 1.137 1.238 1.280
Brazil (number) 8.660 8.783 9.057 9.224 9.479 9.774 9.847
Americas (ex-Brazil) (US$ bi) 19.394 18.813 19.287 20.032 21.771 23.642 23.578
Americas ex-Brazil (number) 16.242 16.447 16.502 16.674 17.386 17.480 17.634
Europe (US$ bi) 14.142 13.739 13.975 14.117 16.089 17.739 18.133
Europe (number) 52.654 53.100 53.167 53.438 54.566 54.771 55.024
Asia/Pacific (US$ bi) 4.608 4.739 4.950 5.198 5.826 6.493 6.834
Asia/Pacífic (number) 25.489 26.510 27.903 29.396 30.198 30.196 30.666
* NAV of open ended regulated mutual funds in each jurisdiction. Source: ICI
9 Note: does not include sep/15 due to technical problems.
11,4 12,5 12,8 12,9 13,1 14,0 14,4
2,092,21
2,40
2,69
3,18
3,78
4,07
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (set/sep)
6.2.2. ICVM 555 Funds
Number (IF+FoF) (x1000) NAV (ex-FoF) (R$ tri)Source: CVM
133
28
60
32
139
178
95
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (set/sep)
6.2.3. ICVM 555 Funds: Net Issuance (ex-FoF) (R$ bi)
Source: CVM
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6. Regulated Markets - Registered Companies
10
5 9 6 23 10 7 8
637647 640 619
614
612 614
2,5
2,4
2,2
1,9
2,5
3,23,2
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (set)
6.3.1. Registered Companies
Suspended Active Listed Companies Total Market Cap (R$ tri)
Source: CVM; B3
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6. Regulated Markets - Registered Companies
6.3.2. Registered Companies – Control and Shareholder Agreements*
mar/2017 jun/2017 set/2017 dez/2017 mar/2018
Registered companies with active status and traded stocks **
332 330 334 338 336
Companies with a controlling shareholder 276 271 275 275 279
Private national control*** 226 218 221 221 222
Government control 27 27 27 27 27
Foreign control 23 26 27 27 30
Companies without a controlling shareholder 56 59 59 63 60
Registered companies with active status and traded stocks **
332 330 334 338 336
Company with shareholder agreements 130 126 130 126 123
Companies without a controlling shareholder 7 7 7 7 5
Companies with a controlling shareholder 123 119 123 119 118
Company without shareholder agreements 202 204 204 212 213
Companies without a controlling shareholder 49 52 52 56 52
Companies with a controlling shareholder 153 152 152 156 161
* CVM estimates based on latest Formulário de Referência up to this edition deadline. Information take into account first level shareholder data. ** Companies in the following status: operational, pre-operational, Chapter 11 equivalents, in suspension. Listed but never traded companies were excluded. *** National control if the proportion of voting shares owned by first level controlling national shareholders is greater than the proportion held by controlling first level foreign shareholders. Source: B3, CVM.
11
-
6. Regulated Markets - Other Assets
Sources: CVM, ANBIMA, B3, CETIP.
12
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan
-14
Ma
r-1
4
Ma
y-1
4
Jul-
14
Se
p-1
4
No
v-1
4
Jan
-15
Ma
r-1
5
Ma
y-1
5
Jul-
15
Se
p-1
5
No
v-1
5
Jan
-16
Ma
r-1
6
Ma
y-1
6
Jul-
16
Se
p-1
6
No
v-1
6
Jan
-17
Ma
r-1
7
Ma
y-1
7
Jul-
17
Se
p-1
7
No
v-1
7
Jan
-18
Ma
r-1
8
Ma
y-1
8
Jul-
18
Se
p-1
8
6.4. Derivatives (Sep/18)
Exchange Based OTC Based Gross Notional - R$ Trillions (R)
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
R$ (bi) 6.5. Corporate Bonds (Sep/2018)
31,0
71,0
31,6
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
R$ (bi) 6.6. ABS+Commercial Paper (Sep/2018)
Commercial Paper Real Estate ABS Agrobusiness ABS
