IMA-S (base rate linked floating bonds index) 1. Market … · Sources: Bloomberg, Economática;...

Market ReportYear VI. Nº 61. November/2018

Index

Note: Data collected untill 10/31/2018 and does not reflect any future changes that may have occurred after such date.

CONFIDENTIAL - EXCLUSIVELY FOR INTERNAL USE

1. Market Performance

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1. Market Performance

2. Macroeconomic Indicators

3. Securities Offerings - Overview

3. Securities Offerings - Selected Assets

4. Secondary Market - Trade Information

5. Securities Offerings - International Comparison

6. Regulated Markets - Totals

6. Regulated Markets - Participants

6. Regulated Markets - Investment Funds

6. Regulated Markets - Registered Companies

6. Regulated Markets - Other Assets

85,4

99,3

101,3

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

out-17 nov-17 dez-17 jan-18 fev-18 mar-18 abr-18 mai-18 jun-18 jul-18 ago-18 set-18 out-18

1.1. Equity indexes (MSCI) - trailing 12 months (USD)

Emerging Markets Developed Markets Brazil

Source: Bloomberg

14,4

13,9

1,4

0,7

8,0

5,4

10,2

6,9

5,4

12,4

3,8

-1,9

Ibovespa

IbrX-100

S&P 500

IFIX (real estate funds index)

IRF-M (fixed rate bonds index)

IMA-S (base rate linked floating bonds index)

IMA-B (inflation linked bonds index)

IHFA (mutual funds index)

CDI Overnight Base Rate

BRL/USD

CPI

CRB (commodities)

1.2. Indicators - Percentage Accumulated YTD Return - Oct/2018

Sources: Bloomberg, Economática; IBGE.

2. Macroeconomic Indicators

Gross Debt: sep/2018. Gross Debt Estimates correspond to the simple average of Itau Unibanco e Banco Bradesco most recent estimates.

CPI: oct/18; GDP (rolling 4 quarters): jun/18; BRL/USD (PTAX ask): 11/23/18; Base Rate SELIC: 11/23/18. Estimates: Focus Report of 11/23/18. Primary and Nominal: sep/2018. Estimate: Focus Report of 11/23/18.

FDI and Current Account: out/2018. Estimates: Focus Report of 11/23/18.

Sources: BCB e IBGE.

2

4,6

1,4

3,81

6,5

3,9

1,4

3,70

6,5

4,1

2,5

3,78

7,8

CPI (% trailing 12month accumulated)

GDP Growth (%) FX (BRL/USD) SELIC Base Rate (%)

2.1. Macroeconomics

Last Value 2018 Estimate 2019 Estimate

77,2

76,5

77,3

Gross Debt (%GDP)

2.2. Gross Debt


-1,3

-7,2

-1,9

-7,2

-1,5

-6,7

Primary Surplus (%GDP - accumulated trailing12 months)

Nominal Result (%GDP - accumulated trailing12 months)

2.3. Public Finances


73,9

-15,7

70,0

-15,1

76,0

-27,3

FDI (US$ bi - accumulated trailing 12 months) Current Account Result (US$ bi -accumulated trailing 12 months)

2.4. Balance of Payments


3. Securities Offerings - Overview

(1) Values and quantities include: stocks+BDR, corporate bonds, commercial paper, Real Estate ABS, Agrobusiness ABS, CDOs, Real Estate Funds and Private Equity Funds (and corresponding FoFs)(2) Corpoate bonds – excludes lease offerings.

Source: CVM

3

137103

57 47 70 89 64

521

669722

637541

798

764

5

2 3

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (out)

3.1. Number of offerings

Registered Offerings (ICVM400) Restricted Efforts Offerings (ICVM476) Exemptions of Register (ICVM400)

54,6 55,7

29,043,5

20,8

48,529,9

115,4 117,5

142,7126,3

120,3

171,2 200,3

0,0 0,1 0,1

50

100

150

200

250

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (out)

R$ (bi)

3. Securities Offerings - Selected Assets

Source: CVM 4

13

20

2 2 3

11

3

4

7

14

5

10

15

20

25

30

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (out)

3.2. Equity (number)

14,3

23,9

15,4 16,7

4,3

21,8

6,8

-

-

-1,6

6,5

17,0

-5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (out)

R$ (bi)

Registered Offerings (ICVM400)

Restricted Efforts Offerings (ICVM476)

19 16 8 9 4 10 5

203252 277

205

166

254288

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (out)

3.3. Corporate bonds (number)

15,0 10,9 3,7 10,6 1,9 6,4 2,7

71,3 57,9 68,8 52,0 61,8

81,8

130,3

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (out)

R$ (bi)



2710 7 5

2210 7

78 115136

121 8293

66

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (out)

3.4. Real Estate ABS (number)

3,2 2,2 0,9 0,3

2,4 2,2 2,0

6,9

13,8 15,7

9,3

15,6

5,4 4,0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (out)

R$ (bi)



4 38 10

19 21

83 7

12 6

19

45

30

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (out)

3.5. Agrobusiness ABS (number)

0,2 0,2 1,4

3,6

8,8 9,7

2,6 0,1 0,8

0,5

1,0

3,6 2,7

1,86

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (out)

R$ (bi)

Registered Offerings (ICVM400) Restricted Efforts Offerings (ICVM476)

48

34

1610 13

2635

23

27

2040

50

45

46

1

2

1

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (out)

3.6. Real Estate Funds (number)

14,0

10,6

4,7 5,8

2,2

5,2

9,9

1,2

3,0

1,7

4,0

3,9

2,8

4,8

0,0

0,1

0,0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (out)

R$ (bi)

Registered Offerings (ICVM400) Restricted Efforts Offerings (ICVM476)

Exemptions of Register (ICVM400)

8 9 5 4 2 4 3

52

7168

10592

123143

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (out)

3.7. Private Equity Funds (number)

3,3 4,21,1 3,6

0,45,1

11,0

17,918,3

40,8

17,520,6

23,1

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (out)

R$ (bi)



16 11 11 7 7 7 3

52

26

53 59 53

124 12842

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (out)

3.8. Receivables Funds (number)

3,9 3,51,8 2,9

0,92,3

0,8

2,8 3,1 7,4 4,6

2,7

13,711,9

0,0 0,0

0,1

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (out)

R$ (bi)



Exemptions of Register (ICVM400)

2

110

171156

97

72

10063

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (out)

3.9. Commercial Paper (number)

0,7

22,020,9

30,3

13,08,8

27,2 24,4

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (out)

R$ (bi)



4. Secondary Market - Trade Information

5

6,36,6 6,4

6,16,6

7,8

10,6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Oct/18

Ave

rage

dai

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olu

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(R$

bi)

4.1. Equity - Round Lot

Source: B3

0,5

0,70,8

1,2 1,2

2,3

1,1

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (out)

Ave

rage

dai

ly v

olum

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$ bi

)

4.2. Corporate bonds

Fonte: SND

341

394

286

309 303

354

330

84 83 82 77 71 74 79

22 20 20 17 19 19 20

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (out)

Nu

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trac

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4.3. Derivatives

CDI Futures USD/BRL Futures Ibovespa FuturesSource: B3

14,4

31,6

20,521,5

22,5

30,1

37,5

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Oct/2018

Ave

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ota

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(R$

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lio

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4.4. Real Estate Funds

Source: B3

5. Securities Offerings – International Comparison

5.1. IPOs – Stocks* 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20172018 (out)

Total – Global (US$ bi) 275 183,1 132,4 183,4 241,2 206,2 132,9 209,0 171,9

Total – Global (number of offerings) 1.647 1.717 1.344 1.273 1.618 1.670 1.370 1.938 1.330

Brazil (US$ bi) 6,2 4,3 2,3 8,4 0,2 0,3 0,2 6,3 2,0

Brazil (number of offerings) 11 11 3 11 1 1 1 10 3

Mexico (US$ bi) 1,4 0,5 1,2 2,9 1 1,9 0,3 4,1 3,4

Mexico (number of offerings) 5 2 3 5 3 5 3 6 14

China (US$ bi) 71,3 41,3 15,1 - 12,5 25,6 23,9 44,7 47.2

China (number of offerings) 348 278 149 - 125 219 227 487 147

Indonesia (US$ bi) 3,4 2,2 1,1 1,7 0,8 0,9 1 0,7 1,21

Indonesia (number of offerings) 23 25 22 30 24 16 15 36 43

Australia (US$ bi) 6,8 1,3 0,4 5,7 15,5 6,5 4,2 4,3 4,6

Australia (number of offerings) 93 104 44 57 73 94 89 100 70

5.2. Foreign Currency-Denominated Bonds**

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20172018 (out)

Brazil (US$ bi) 43,8 39,2 37,0 36,1 38,1 10,3 24,4 52,9 27,2

Latin America and Caribbean(ex-Brazil) (US$ bi)

76,4 64,9 75,9 100 87,9 51,9 84,5 88,7 52,4

Mexico 47,3 30,6 46,2 50,2 40 29,9 59,1 45,9 35,2

Chile 5,4 7 9,5 11,7 14,4 9,2 3,3 17,9 1,6

Argentina 2,9 1,5 1,4 4,5 4,3 4,1 8 8,7 2,7

* Values converted to USD considering the offering date. Excludes ADR/BDR/GDR offered abroad by Brazilian companies. Country data is aggregated by location of the exchange which hosted the offering.** Only non-financial corporate offerings, country data aggregated by “ultimate county of risk”, that is, the country in which the majority of the economic risk of the issuer is supported. Values converted to USD considering the offering date.

Source: Bloomberg

6

6. Regulated Markets - Totals

Note: There is some double counting due to investment funds assets.

Sources: CVM, ANBIMA, CETIP.

7

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1

2

3

4

5

6

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US$ (tri) 6.1. Regulated Markets (Oct/2018)

NAV ICVM 555 Funds (ex-FoF) NAV non-ICVM/555 Funds (ex-FoF) Derivatives Total Gross Notional

Corporate Bonds Commercial Paper Real Estate ABS

Agrobusiness ABS Stock Market Total Market Cap Total

6. Regulated Markets - Participants

6.2. Participants (number)2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Registered companies, including foreign and subsidized, with active status

756 767 750 725 690 672

Registered Investment Funds (nov/17) 13.165 14.278 14.875 15.094 14.936 16.182

Registered Asset Managers* (sum) 3.086 3.347 3535 3662 3353 3.411

Fiduciary Administrators (exclusive) 29 36

Asset Managers (exclusive) 3227 3281

Both 97 94

Registered Custodians 87 88 189 153 144 145

Registered Bookkeepers 36 33 35 53

Registered Brokerage Firms (trading) 106 104 99 93 84 74

Registered Brokerage Firms (distribution) 133 129 115 109 107 94

Registered Brokers 9.969 8.218 5.393 5.123 5.980 6.596

Registered Independent Auditors 427 419 417 406 408 391

Registered Rating Agencies 5 7 7 7 7 7

Registered Research Analysts 713 723 721 712 618 424

Registered Investment Consultants 534 582 632 649 648 686

Registered Non-Resident Investors 19.023 19.140 20.900 20.899 18.429 19.416

Total 48.004 47.802 47.669 47.665 45.439 48.151

• Distinction after ICVM 558/15.

Sources: CVM. Does not include B3 stock exchange.

8

6. Regulated Markets - Investment Funds

6.2.1. Investment Funds- International Comparison*

2015 (jun)

2015(dec)

2016 (jun)

2016(dec)

2017 (jun)

2017 (dec)

2018 (jun)

Total – World (US$ bi) 39.201 38.155 39.329 40.554 44.982 49.294 50.010

Total – World (number) 104.270 106.167 108.032 110.252 113.185 113.847 114.755

Brazil (US$ bi) 911 744 984 1.061 1.137 1.238 1.280

Brazil (number) 8.660 8.783 9.057 9.224 9.479 9.774 9.847

Americas (ex-Brazil) (US$ bi) 19.394 18.813 19.287 20.032 21.771 23.642 23.578

Americas ex-Brazil (number) 16.242 16.447 16.502 16.674 17.386 17.480 17.634

Europe (US$ bi) 14.142 13.739 13.975 14.117 16.089 17.739 18.133

Europe (number) 52.654 53.100 53.167 53.438 54.566 54.771 55.024

Asia/Pacific (US$ bi) 4.608 4.739 4.950 5.198 5.826 6.493 6.834

Asia/Pacífic (number) 25.489 26.510 27.903 29.396 30.198 30.196 30.666

* NAV of open ended regulated mutual funds in each jurisdiction.Source: ICI

9Note: does not include sep/15 due to technical problems.

11,4 12,5 12,8 12,9 13,1 14,0 14,5

2,092,21

2,40

2,69

3,18

3,78

4,14

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (out/oct)

6.2.2. ICVM 555 Funds

Number (IF+FoF) (x1000) NAV (ex-FoF) (R$ tri)Source: CVM

133

28

60

32

139

178

103

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (out/oct)

6.2.3. ICVM 555 Funds: Net Issuance (ex-FoF) (R$ bi)

Source: CVM


10

5 9 6 23 10 7 7

637647 640 619

614

612 617

2,52,4

2,2

1,9

2,5

3,2

3,5

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (out)

6.3.1. Registered Companies

Suspended Active Listed Companies Total Market Cap (R$ tri)

Source: CVM; B3


6.3.2. Registered Companies – Control and Shareholder Agreements*

mar/2017 jun/2017 set/2017 dez/2017 mar/2018

Registered companies with active status and traded stocks **

332 330 334 338 336

Companies with a controlling shareholder 276 271 275 275 279

Private national control*** 226 218 221 221 222

Government control 27 27 27 27 27

Foreign control 23 26 27 27 30

Companies without a controlling shareholder 56 59 59 63 60

Registered companies with active status and traded stocks **

332 330 334 338 336

Company with shareholder agreements 130 126 130 126 123


Companies with a controlling shareholder 123 119 123 119 118

Company without shareholder agreements 202 204 204 212 213


Companies with a controlling shareholder 153 152 152 156 161||| Due to operational reasons, the numbers will be updated in the next report

* CVM estimates based on latest Formulário de Referência up to this edition deadline. Information take into account first level shareholder data.** Companies in the following status: operational, pre-operational, Chapter 11 equivalents, in suspension. Listed but never traded companies were excluded.*** National control if the proportion of voting shares owned by first level controlling national shareholders is greater than the proportion held by controlling first level foreign shareholders.

Source: B3, CVM.

11

6. Regulated Markets - Other Assets

Sources: CVM, ANBIMA, B3, CETIP.

12

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

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6.4. Derivatives (Oct/18)

Exchange Based OTC Based Gross Notional - R$ Trillions (R)

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

R$ (bi) 6.5. Corporate Bonds (Oct/2018)

30,8

71,0

22,4 20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

jan

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R$ (bi) 6.6. ABS+Commercial Paper (Oct/2018)

Commercial Paper Real Estate ABS Agrobusiness ABS

IMA-S (base rate linked floating bonds index) 1. Market … · Sources: Bloomberg, Economática;...

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