IEA analysis for sustainable transport Outline of IEA Mobility Model, Achievements and Plans As of...

IEA analysis for sustainable transport

Outline of IEA Mobility Model, Achievements and Plans

As of March 2010

Lew Fulton, Pierpaolo Cazzola, François Cuenot

Division of Energy Technology PolicyInternational Energy Agency


Project development2003WBCSD project and SMP model

First Generation Model available on the SMP website

SMP model used for the Mobility 2030 report

scenarios exploring energy use, CO2 and pollutant emissions, safety and materials use

2004-2005SMP model developed further into the first version of the

MoMo model MoMo data used for the IEA ETP analysis and ETP 2006

2006-2008Second phase of model development

Deeper analysis of vehicle technology potential (incl. PHEVs) Elasticities of travel with respect to income and prices Significant amount of historical data integrated in the model Development of ETP 2008 scenarios

2008-2011Third phase of model development


What is MoMo? It is a spreadsheet model of global transport, energy use,

emissions, safety, and materials use analysis of a multiple set of scenarios, projections to 2050 Based on hypotheses on GDP and population growth, fuel

economies, costs, travel demand, vehicle and fuel market shares

World divided in 11 regions, plus a good number of specific countries (for road modes only, being extended to other modes)

USA, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, France, Germany, Italy, UK, Japan, Korea, China, India

The model is suitable for handling regional and global issues

It contains a large amount of information (data) on technologies and fuel pathways

full evaluation of the life cycle GHG emissions cost estimates for new light duty vehicles estimates for fuels costs and taxes section on material requirements for LDV manufacturing

It is based on the "ASIF" framework:Activity (passenger travel) * Structure (travel by mode, load factors) * Energy Intensity = Fuel use


Analytical capabilities (1) For LDVs and trucks, Tracking of

A stock model has been developed for LDVs Activity, intensity, energy use GHG emissions (on a WTW, a TTW basis) Pollutant emissions (CO, VOCs, PM, lead and NOx) Fuel and vehicle costs (only for LDVs)

For buses, 2/3 wheelers, we track stock, tkm, stock efficiency, energy use and emissions

For rail and air, total travel activity (in pkm or tkm), stock efficiency, energy use and emissions is tracked

For shipping, so far just energy use and emissions

Material requirements and emissions have been integrated in the model

Analysis of future vehicle sales (e.g. fuel cells) and how they impact materials requirements (e.g. precious metals, Li) is possible

Full life-cycle analysis for GHG emissions from LDVs (including manufacturing);

Tailpipe emissions of various pollutants


Analytical capabilities (2) Increasingly versatile model

Suitable for simple “what-if analysis” to understand changing trends given the variation of one or more variables

Analysis of hypotheses on vehicle fuel economies and fuel shares

Learning incorporated in the model, given initial and “asymptotic” technology prices

Suitable for analysis based on inputs relative to economic growth, population growth and the variation of fuel prices

Travel and vehicle ownership affected Prices module being improved to account for the variation of

the main feedstock prices given changes in the oil price

Full "back-casting“ possible The model is fully transparent, all calculations can be

tracked back No black box effect Inevitable limitations, being progressively overcome to help

the model user and to improve the quality of the results


Coverage of transport modes 2-3 wheelers

Light duty vehicles Spark ignition (SI) ICEs Compression ignition (CI) ICEs SI hybrid ICEs (including plug-ins) CI hybrid ICEs (including plug-ins) Hydrogen ICE hybrids (including plug-ins) Fuel cell vehicles Electric vehicles

Heavy and duty vehicles Passenger

Minibuses Buses

Freight Medium freight trucks Heavy freight trucks

Rail Passenger Freight

Air

Water transport National International


Coverage of fuel pathways Liquid petroleum fuels

Gasoline Diesel (high- and low-sulphur)

Biofuels Ethanol

Grain, sugar cane, advanced technologies (lignocellulose) Biodiesel

Conventional (fatty acid methyl esters, FAME or biodiesel obtained from hydrogenation of vegetable oil in refineries), advanced processes (BTL, fast pyrolysis, hydrothermal upgrade)

Synthetic fuels GTL and CTL

CNG/LPG CNG, LPG, biogas

Electricity Separately for EVs and PHEVs; by generation mix, by region

Hydrogen from natural gas, with and without CO2 sequestration from electricity, point of use electrolysis, with and without

CO2 sequestration from biomass gasification advanced low GHG hydrogen production


Who supports this work? Now 7 partner companies; 6 have been financing the

project development since the end of the SMP

Volkswagen has recently joined the group

Institute for Transport Policy Studies (ITPS - a Japanese research institute) has also joined the project in 2009.US DoE also joined in March 2010.

There appears to be rapidly growing interest from other groups in using the Model. We are grappling with this and considering how we might structure cooperations in the future.

© OECD/IEA 2009

New Model architecture

Historical Data Files

MoMo data - Summary and Comparison.xlsb

MoMo - Electricty mix.xlsb

MoMo - Energy mix.xlsb

Fuels.xlsb

MoMo - Fuel economy potentials.xlsb

Interface, Main Switches and Outputs

Master.xlsb

Materials.xlsb

MoMo - WTT.xlsb

MoMo data - Biofuel shares.xlsb

Road Passenger LDV Module PassVehicles.xlsb

Road Freight Module RoadFreight.xlsb

2 and 3 Wheelers Module 2_3_Wheelers.xlsb

Bus Module Bus.xlsb

Air Module Air.xlsb

Shipping Module Shipping.xlsb

Rail Module Rail.xlsb

MoMo - Gap factor.xlsb

MoMo – Local Pollutants.xlsb

© OECD/IEA 2009

Master File

© OECD/IEA - 2009

TRANSPORT,

ENERGY

AND CO2

Moving Toward Sustainability

IEA’s New Transport Publication

Book features: Indicator update and extension to more

countries Technology potential and cost updates Fuel and Modal assessments (LDV,

truck, aviation, shipping) Detailed scenario analysis with regional

detail – Baseline, High Baseline, Modal Shift, BLUE technology scenarios

Role of future technologies, modal shift More regional detail than in ETP Continuing development of CO2

mitigation cost analysis Policy considerations

Released 27 October, 2009 Builds on ETP 2008, will feed into ETP 2010 Transport analysis based on on-going development of IEA

Mobility Model, supporting research

© OECD/IEA - 2009

TRANSPORT,

ENERGY

AND CO2


The transport book builds on IEA/ETP 2008IEA ETP 2008: Where reductions come from

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

CO

2 e

mis

sio

ns

(G

t C

O2

/yr)

BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt

Baseline emissions 62

WEO 2007 450 ppm New ETP2008 analysis

Power

Industry

Buildings

Transport

© OECD/IEA - 2009

TRANSPORT,

ENERGY

AND CO2


Key Findings Baseline (WEO Reference Case) transport fuel use

80% higher by 2050; a new High Baseline reaches 25% higher energy use in 2050 Mainly dependent on car sales projections and

freight sensitivity to economic growth

Fuel economy improvement remains among most cost-effective measures Can reach 50% improvement for LDVs and 30-50%

for other modes by 2050 or before

Alt fuels still critical, though biofuels concerns growing; electrification may be key Biofuels still important but concerns about

sustainability are growing; a roadmap for achieving 2050 levels in BLUE is needed

Costs for batteries and fuel cells are dropping; EVs may reach commercial production very soon

PHEVs appear to be a promising transition strategy

© OECD/IEA - 2009

TRANSPORT,

ENERGY

AND CO2


Key Findings (cont.) Additional reductions can come from changes in the

nature of travel Modal shift analysis suggests that a 25% reduction

from 2050 Baseline is feasible (almost 50% compared to High Baseline), though more work is needed on the costs and policies to get there

Technologies such as Bus Rapid Transit will be important, but ultimately its about land use planning and a comprehensive approach to travel policies.

Together modal shift, efficiency improvements and alt fuels could cut transport CO2 by 70% compared to baseline in 2050 (30% below 2005) More technology cost work is needed for aviation

and shipping, but initial assessment suggests that many relatively low cost opportunities may be available.

For LDVs, 80% reduction in CO2 by 2050 at under 200 USD/tonne in that year

© OECD/IEA - 2009

TRANSPORT,

ENERGY

AND CO2


Energy use by scenarioIn BLUE Map/Shifts, energy use returns to 2005 level, and with more than 50% very low CO2 fuels

0123456

Base

line

Base

line

Base

line

Hig

h Ba

selin

e

BLU

E Sh

ifts

BLU

E M

ap

BLU

E M

ap/S

hift

s

2005 2030 2050

Ener

gy u

se (t

hous

and

Mto

e)

Hydrogen

Biofuels

Electricity

CNG/LPG

GTL and CTL

HFO

Jet fuel

Diesel

Gasoline

© OECD/IEA - 2009

TRANSPORT,

ENERGY

AND CO2


Car ownership projectionsThe difference between 2 and 3 billion cars in 2050…

© OECD/IEA - 2009

TRANSPORT,

ENERGY

AND CO2


Land Passenger travel by mode and region, Baseline scenarioNon-OECD is where the growth happens, though from a far lower base per capita than OECD

Total

Per capita

© OECD/IEA - 2009

TRANSPORT,

ENERGY

AND CO2


Passenger Travel: Changes from Baseline to BLUE Shifts Case in 2050Shifting 25% of LDV and air travel can cut total energy use by 20% in 2050

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Air LTs Cars Rail Buses 2-3Ws

OECD urban

OECD non-urban

Non-OECD urban

Non-OECD non-rban

© OECD/IEA - 2009

TRANSPORT,

ENERGY

AND CO2


IEA ETP BLUE Map: advanced technologies must play a major role

Unprecedented rates of change in market penetration of advanced technologies

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Pass

enge

r LDV

Sale

s (m

illio

n)

H2 hybrid fuel cell

Electricity

CNG/LPG

Plug-in hybrid diesel

Diesel hybrid

Conventional diesel

Plug-in hybrid gasoline

Hybrid (gasoline)

Conventional gasoline

IEA analysis for sustainable transport Outline of IEA Mobility Model, Achievements and Plans As of...

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