ICT-APPLICATIONS TO ALIGN GLOBAL RESOURCES WITH A GROWING POPULATION

7/29/2019 ICT-APPLICATIONS TO ALIGN GLOBAL RESOURCES WITH A GROWING POPULATION

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ICT-APPLICATIONS TO ALIGN GLOBAL RESOURCES

WITH A GROWING POPULATION

Steffen, Dominic, University of Mnster

Srinivasan, Rajesh, University of Liechtenstein

Abstract

With a growing global population expected to reach over 9 billion people by 2050, this paper

investigates ICT-applications to mitigate the inevitable problems that arise in the demand for food

from such a large number of people. It is discovered, that ICT can be applied to solve problems

arising from population growth and can assist in increasing agricultural output.

Keywords: ICT, Population growth, long-term food security, agriculture, health.


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1 Introduction

The world population is growing. Right now, more than 7 billion people populate this planet and it hasbeen projected that until 2050, this number will rise to a staggering 9.4 billion or even higher (UN

2002). This invites an essential question: Do we even have enough food to feed such a large number of

people? Can our earth provide for 9.4 billion people (or more)? Already, nearly a billion people are

considered undernourished, meaning that they do not receive the sufficient amount of nutrients for a

healthy life (FAO 2010). In the years 2007/2008, sudden price spikes for food commodities alarmed

the world (Piesse & Thirtle 2009; OECD/FAO 2011). It seems imperative, that this question needs to

be addressed. It seems also, that this question should be of concern to everyone.

Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) have successfully reformed and transformed the

way of life through a number of innovations: From the personal computer to mobile telephony, the

internet, up to cloud computing and social networks. Therefore, as the central question posed above

should be of everyones concern, we will look at the question from our perspective of InformationSystems science. In the course of this paper, we will try to determine if ICTs transformative potentialcan be applied to this problem. A literature review has been performed to investigate if and how this

has already occurred.

Best practice for conducting literary reviews is to document each and every step of the research

process to demonstrate the methodology used and to allow other researchers to recreate and replicate

the process (Brocke et al. 2009; Webster and Watson 2002). With this as the principle we discussthe research process for our challenge.

The broad topic of this paper is based on the global challenges from the millennium project, and is

given as How can population growth and resources be brought into balance? (The Millenium Project

n.d.), which in the context of the seminar has been reformulated to the question How can ICT -

Application be used to align global resources with a growing population?. The research began by firstinvestigating the underlying problem, excluding the question of ICT for now. After a precursory

research, it was also decided to divide the topic into two sub-divisions: Supply and Demand. Inthe demand development, we concentrated on population centric functions for growth and

development and in the supply demand development; we concentrated on farmer centric functions for

resource growth. In the second stage of our research, we specifically investigated how ICT could be

applied to solving the underlying problem.

Sources were discovered by using the academic search engine Business source premier, JSTOR,

SpringerLink and Google Scholar, searching for matches of the search query in title, abstract,

keywords and full text. Searches were performed with the search terms population control,

population growth, population growth food, population ICT, ICT agriculture, and ICTfood security. The first 100 documents were assessed for relevance in regard to this papers

topic. Relevance was assessed by analyzing the title and abstract for a reference to indexing

methodologies for population control and ICT (Exact and approximate structure and substructure

search). In cases where the assessment of relevance from the title and abstract was inconclusive,

the relevance was assessed by analyzing the full text. Irrelevant articles those without any

contribution to the problem were discarded. The cut-off points were based on the falling

occurrence of relevant papers in the search results.

The papers cited above in this section also argue for the need to disclose whether backward or

forward searches were performed. For all sources in this paper, iterative and selective backward

searches were performed. A backward search is a search that discovers all the references of a

query paper. The searches were iterative in the sense that once a discovered paper was deemed

relevant, backward search was also applied to it. It was selective as papers deemed irrelevant were


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discarded and therefore backward and forward searches were not applied to them. Obviously not

all discovered sources were used and cited in this work, as this would have introduced too much

redundant information.

This paper is organized as follows: In the following section, we have analyzed the underlyingproblem from the perspectives of demand and supply. In section 3 we will introduce ICT-

applications that mitigate issues arising from a growing population. In section 4 we investigate

ICT-application that can help increase food production. Section 5 concludes this paper with a

summary.

2 The Challenge

2.1 Demand

One of the main factors influencing the population and resource balance would be the growingdemand of resources. In this part, the current factors influencing these demands will be discussed and

as well as the sufficient future requirements needed for balancing the demand growth will be

discussed.

With the persistent increase of the human population, which is now exceeding seven billion - all

species face increased pressure on resources. It is commonly accepted by scholars that the twenty first

century is an epoch of an unanticipated population growth throughout the world, which leads to

changes in the ecosystem as a whole. Population growth not only causes a negative impact on the

environment but also causes problems with resource utilization thereby increasing the demand of

sources. Population growth and the resulting human activities generate pressure on the natural and

man-made environments. This is demonstrated by the rapid declines in tropic forests, global warming

and world population (Madulu, 2004). Human beings the destructive intruders to natural environment,

the solution is to effect stringent rules and legislation that protects the environment. Although different

environmental protection strategies have been affected in different regions, strict protection measures

have been used as the most sustainable strategy to conserve biodiversity in many areas.

The high rate of growth and the large size of the population, also affects the pace of development and

poverty reduction directly, as well as indirectly, via its effects on a large number of intermediate

variables and proximate determinants of development and poverty reduction.

According to the most recent UN medium projections (UN 2002), the population of the world will

continue to grow at least until 2050, when the total is expected to reach 9.4 billion. This represents an

increase of 2.4 billion over the 2011 population of 7 billion. Nearly all of this future growth will occur

in the developing world, i.e. Africa, Asia (excluding Japan, Australia, and New Zealand), and LatinAmerica where population size is projected to increase from 4.5 to 8.2 billion between 1995 and 2050.

In contrast, in the developed world (Europe, Northern America, Japan, and Australia/New Zealand),

population size is forecast to remain virtually stable, growing very slowly from 1.17 to 1.22 billion

between 1995 and 2025, followed by a modest decline to 1.16 in 2050.

In order to keep this balance of population and resource growth, population policies has to be defined

by each country. According to Paul Demeney (2003), Population policy may be defined asdeliberately constructed or modified institutional arrangements and/or specific programs through

which governments influence, directly or indirectly, demographic change. Population policies canalso look at the quantitative changes to the population under the governments jurisdiction as well asinto the qualitative aspects of international immigration.


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Malthus' suggested solution was to proportion the population to food, since the food could not beproportioned to population (Malthus TR 1999). But critiques of Malthus have opposed his theoryarguing that he failed to foresee the potential technological improvements that would increase food

production (Sen A 1994).

Economic growth in developing countries is driven by population growth and the pursuit of a higher

living standard. Worldwide, food demand is shifting from such basic commodities as cereals and rice

to products with a higher value added, namely meat, fish, fruit, vegetables, fats and oils. The growth in

food demand will have major consequences for the relation between food demand and supply, and

thus for food prices. The nature of consumer demand is changing as a result of the prevalence of

consumerism. Consumers continue to spend more and consume more, while also having more choices

than ever. Consumer behaviours are nowadays more affected by global food advertising and

promotions, Retail restructuring, urbanisation and socially responsible food products. According to a

publication about 85 percent of the increase in the global demand for cereals and meat between 1995

and 2020 will occur in developing countries (Andersen, Pandya- Lorch, and Rosegrant 1999).

2.2 Supply

After exploring the demand for the resource food, a question that springs to mind is whether this

demand is met now and can be met in the future. We will explore this in the first part of this section.

Then, in the second part, we will investigate long- and short-term factors that influence the supply.

Currently, the latest available figures estimate that a total of around 925 million people in the world

are undernourished (FAO 2010). In the short to medium term, high volatility in agricultural

commodity markets are of major concern, as they have major implications on food security

(OECD/FAO 2011). Price spikes in commodity markets occur as markets fail to match demand in the

short-term due to supply shocks like crop production shortfalls or unexpected demand surges

(OECD/FAO 2011). In the long term, there seems to be a declining trend in global food production

growth (Trostle 2010; OECD/FAO 2011). The global potential for agricultural production has been

estimated to be sufficient to produce an affluent diet to 16 to 24 billion people (Koning 2008a) or even

more (Chalkley 1997), however the authors acknowledge that this would be unsustainable. Another

study puts the population limit under sustainable agricultural production at less than 2 billion(D.

Pimentel et al. 1994).

Several authors have identified land, water, nutrient resources (fertilizer) and energy as important

input factors for agricultural production (OECD/FAO 2011; Koning 2008a; Evans 2011). However,

arable land is in finite supply and it is estimated that globally about 7.6 Gha are suitable for

agriculture, of which 58% are already in use, with the remaining being mostly marginal lands of lesser

quality1

and with only a few countries in South America and Africa having significant reserves of

good land (Koning 2008a). Water is also an important limiting factor, with up to two thirds of the

global population living in areas suffering water-stressed conditions and worse. The number of people

suffering from absolute water scarcity is expected to grow from 1.2 billion to 1.8 billion by 2025(Evans 2011). Nutrient resources are also subject to limitations: Nitrogen fertilizer production is

highly energy consuming; total and potential phosphorus reserves are estimated at 9.5 billion tonnes.

There is also the long term possibility that the supply of mineral phosphate may be increasingly

dependent on a single country (Morocco) (Koning 2008a). Fossil energy is also a factor used in

agricultural production, its use characteristic however is dependent on the farming paradigm:

Developed countries employ highly intensive and complex farming technologies which use massive

amounts of fossil energy in the production of fertilizers and pesticides, in irrigation technologies and

1less fertile, easily degradable, much under forest (Koning 2008a), and at higher risk of adverse weather events (OECD/FAO

2011)


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for agricultural machines while agricultural energy use in developing countries can be attributed to

fertilizers and irrigation (D. Pimentel et al. 1997). For oil, there may be an supply crunch due to

underinvestment in infrastructure in the short term; while questions about long term availability are

unresolved, with estimates ranging from sufficient supply for decades to suggestions that peak

production will be reached by 2020 (Evans 2011).

We define adverse events as those exogenous developments that have the effect of reducing the supply

of food. In our research, we have come across three types of adverse events: Pests and

Diseases(Koning 2008b), climate change (Evans 2011) and competing use (OECD/FAO 2011).

Competing use claims exist for input factors as well as agricultural output (OECD/FAO 2011). For

agricultural outputs, non-food use continues to rise (OECD/FAO 2011). Feed use of cereals and coarse

grains are expected to keep growing due to expansion and intensification of the livestock sector

(OECD/FAO 2011). Industrial use of agricultural output is also expected to rise, as more is diverted to

biofuel production (OECD/FAO 2011).

There are some drivers which have a direct impact on production efficiency. These are access to

agricultural knowledge and access to advanced farming technologies (Koning 2008a; Balaji & Meera

2007a; OECD/FAO 2011), Investment (OECD/FAO 2011; Koning 2008a), access to markets andmarket information (N. Rao 2007a; Singh 2006a) and improved biotechnology (Chrispeels 2000;

Serageldin 1999; Bruce 2011) . Production targets of farmers as well as investment decisions are the

result ofprofitability considerations. Higher prices will increase farmers desire to increase productiontargets as well as make investment in agriculture more profitable and therefore more available (Koning

2008b).

3 Demand-Side Applications

3.1 Population centric functions

As mentioned before population has timely shown that it is ever-growing and uncontrollable. But the

standard of the population can be improved for a better use of the available resources. This can bedone by making steps to decrease our growth, informing the general public with the sustainable

solutions and making better decisions. We use these objectives and point out the main functions that

have a major impact on and of the ever-growing population.

3.1.1 ICT as a Tool

"Knowledge is like light. Weightless and intangible, it can easily travel the world, enlightening the

lives of people everywhere. Yet billions still live in the darkness of poverty- unnecessarily" (World

Development Report 1999). The main objective of Information communication and technologies

(ICT) is to have a greater role of communications and the integration of technologies that enables the

user to create access, store, and transmit information within the fields of both economic developmentand international development.

ICT uses a full range of technologies which includes traditional and upcoming devices such as

community radio, television, mobile phones, computer and network hardware and software, the

internet, satellite systems and podcasting. When considering the ICT as a strategic tool for

development, the main areas would be to facilitate access to and sharing of relevant information and

knowledge. With ICTs the voices of poor, excluded and disadvantaged groups can be strengthenedwith a higher incline towards the decision making. Using ICT as a tool increases the efficiency and

effectiveness of the objective and ICT also acts as a catalyst for change. We will try to give a number

of strategic solutions using ICT for encountering this challenge below.


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3.1.2 Socially responsible functions

One of the main impacts of population growth is on the society we live in. As the population increases,

a balance between the economy and the ecosystem is difficult to maintain. Being socially responsible

we can act to benefit the society at large. The main aspects of being socially responsible include social

economic development of under developed population and poverty reduction.The relation of economic costs with population growth is mainly related due to the high fertility rates.

This concern was first raised in 1960s with the alarmed population growth rates; the economic costsalso increased which raised the proposition of further policy actions to limit fertility (Davis K 1967;

Ehrlich.P.R, Ehrlich.A.H 2009). According to the demographic transition theory, rapid population

growth during a certain period of time happens in all societies, because improvements in living

conditions and health care lead to reduced death rates first (Raleigh VS 1999). In addition, as societies

develop and socio-economic development takes place, the need for more children as sources of labour

and carers of ageing parents becomes less (Kibirige JS 1997).

Even though it is evident that populations with high socio economic development have lower fertility

rates and hence stable population sizes, the evidence of effect of population growth on economic

growth and development is not straight forward. Studies show conflicting results: either negative

(Ahituv.A A 2001; Kelley AC & Schmidt RM 1995) or positive (Crook N 1996) effects of population

growth on economic growth. The direction and size of the effect may vary from country to country

according to which stage of the demographic transition the country is at and its related characteristics

such as the political and economic context (Barlow R 1994; Kelley AC 1988).

Socio economic growth also has a major impact on poverty. With the increasing economic growth, the

poverty problem can also be tracked and reduced. Poverty reduction has been largely as a result of

overall economic growth (Parker G 2001).

Use of ICT in this function will create good awareness and increase the growth and development of by

having better decision support systems.

3.1.3 Universal healthcare functionsRapid population growth mainly characterised by high fertility in less developed countries and

unequal distribution of fertility rates between rich and poor in middle income countries have a very

high impact on reaching full development of the nation. Adding to that consequences of population

growth with respect to high socio economic inequalities and bad infrastructures have resource

implications for both less developed and middle income countries. A clear need to focus on healthcare

exists in all cases.

Healthcare systems work with the principle of universal coverage for all members of society. It uses

health financing and service provision as a means to provide greater healthcare to everyone. In the

cases where composition of the population changes due to rapid growth, the needs of an increasing

number of people of reproductive age should be met to enhance human potential. Programmatic

responses in these circumstances include not only meeting family planning needs but also addressingother reproductive health issues which could pose a high burden on individuals, particularly women, if

not appropriately dealt with. According to WHO (2004), more than half a million of women die each

year due to pregnancy-related causes.

In 1994 with respect to the reproductive healthcare for populations, the international conference on

population and development (ICPD) addressed the causes as well consequences of population growth.

It strengthened the human condition by reducing the burden by high fertility, unplanned fertility and

complications of pregnancies and childbirth. Addressing these conditions has important implications

for development by enhancing human potential. Increased focus on reproductive health therefore will

accelerate achievement of human development (Sachs & McArthur 2005).This means distribution of

human capabilities both to the future generations (e.g., the influence of maternal education and health

on the well-being of the next generation, environmental sustainability) and to the poor and


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disadvantaged segments of the population (e.g., addressing health inequalities, policies to improve the

status of women) (Anand.S S & Sen A 2000).

Use of ICT in this function will help improving the human conditions as well as create good

awareness for a better and stable growth.

3.1.4 Environmental care functions

It is evident that with increasing human population today, the realization of the environmental changes

and its costs takes a pivotal role in growth and development. With this increase in human population,

there are changes to the ecosystem as a whole. With the larger population, the demand for nourishment

is greater and with a greater consumption of nourishments there are more negative impacts on the

environment. As human population rapidly expands, there is a great concern about the growing

imbalance between the worlds population and scarcity of the resources that support life on earth.Evidently, enlarged population size demands more land for crops, natural resources for industrial and

domestic use, and more water supply for supporting life and agriculture. As a result, damage to the

environment in terms of climate, water shortage, deforestation, soil erosion, and decline in the level of

biodiversity and slowness of economy becomes an inevitable fact.

Adding to the above the rising danger of global warming from the ongoing greenhouse emission is

ever increasing. . According to most estimates, over the last few decades, a rise in global temperature

of four degrees Celsius is most likely to occur during the 21st century (Knight M 2010). The current

rise in the global temperature threatens not only the lives of human beings, but also the lives of many

animals and plants. In fact, the higher temperature is the basis for the massive melt-offs of the Arctic

caps, which in turn causes the sea level to rise by as much as few feet (Goldstein and Pevehouse

2011).Consequences of deforestation are not only the fact that the trees are being cut down, but also

plants and animals that occupy the ecosystem, are either permanently or temporarily suffering. For

instance, it is estimated that in the Amazon one of the species become extinct everyday as aconsequence of deforestation (Wilkinson 1990).

There is also a rising danger of global warming from the on-going greenhouse emission, mainly fromburning fossil fuels and timber. One of the major atmospheric problems caused by greenhouse gases is

the depletion of ozone layer. With the vulnerability of reduced ozone layer, harmful ultraviolet rays

are sent down by the sun. One of the main causes for the ozone layer depletion is certain chemicals

expelled by industrial activities that float to the top of the atmosphere and interact with ozone in a way

that breaks it down (Goldstein and Pevehouse 2011).

To address and spread the awareness for our environmental care, ICTs can be used extensively. Withthe use of ICTs poor and marginalised can be informed about the potential impact of climate changeon their livelihoods. But scientific jargon and high-level concepts about climate change need to be

demystified to make them comprehensible and applicable to the layperson for increased effectiveness.

Also by using ICTs, many low cost and environmental sustainable solutions can be realized.

4 Supply-Side Applications

Supply-side applications of ICT target production efficiency. We identified applications that can

improve production efficiency and grouped them into two categories: Farmer-centric applications and

strategic applications. The former will provide benefits to an individual agricultural producer directly,

while the latter will benefit a group of agricultural producers indirectly. We considered applications

for all types of agricultural producers globally, but we have given special weight to applications for

farmers in developing countries. This special weight is warranted as the majority of agricultural

produce are crops (grain, etc.), and compared to the developed world which is already very efficient,

the developing world has the highest efficiency potential. We did not investigate ICT-applications that

improve biotechnology research, although biotechnology (like genetically engineered crops) plays an


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important role in increasing production. As the ICT-applications for biotechnology research are

specialised and do not apply to agricultural production directly, they are out of the scope of this paper.

4.1 Farmer-centric applications

4.1.1 Knowledge Distribution

Sources of relevant knowledge (e.g. farming technologies, pests and diseases, etc.) for farmers are

social and professional networks (Warren 2004; Rosskopf & Wagner 2003), agricultural journals

(Rosskopf & Wagner 2003), private consultancy (Warren 2004; Rosskopf & Wagner 2003) and public

sector agricultural extension services (Richardson 2006; Munyua et al. 2008; Warren 2004; Rosskopf

& Wagner 2003). ICTs have been suggested as a potentially more convenient and efficient method of

delivery of the knowledge contained in these sources (Warren 2004; Rosskopf & Wagner 2003;

Munyua et al. 2008).

Farmers, both in developing as well as in developed countries, are interested in information on

agricultural technologies, pests and diseases, market prices for in- and outputs, local weather

information and government regulations (Singh 2006b; Rosskopf & Wagner 2003; Warren 2004). Theinformation can either be accessed by farmers based on demand or farmers can take part in broadcasts

of agricultural information (Singh 2006b). Following the demand-driven method of information

retrieval, the farmers demand for a certain kind of information is satisfied by accessing a knowledge-resource by the farmer (Singh 2006b).

ICT-enabled knowledge distribution can take a number of forms. Time-tested methods of delivery are

based on radio or television broadcasts of topics of relevance for the agricultural sector (Singh 2006b).

Started in the 1940s with the Canadian radio Farm Forums (Singh 2006b), relevance of radio andtelevision broadcasts on agricultural topics is especially high in developing countries due to the

comparatively higher penetration of radios and televisions compared to newer ICTs such as internet-

enabled PCs (Singh 2006b). Programs usually involve a knowledge-provider such as an extension

service and can follow either the top-down approach in which the program is designed solely by theprovider or a bottom-up approach in which the audience has at least some influence in program

design, for example by suggesting topics or presenting questions (Singh 2006b).

Knowledge can also be compiled into repositories by one or more knowledge providers, and either be

distributed on static mediums such as CDs or DVDs or made accessible through a website (N. Rao

2007b; Singh 2006b; Munyua et al. 2008; Colle & Yonggong 2002; Flor 2002; Rosskopf & Wagner

2003; Richardson 2006). In the latter case, the system will consist of a web server with access to a

database which stores the content (Meera & Jhamtani 2004; Thysen 2000; Ramamritham et al. 2006).

The user front-end is then a website which provides structured access to the knowledge either through

search methods, keywords, hierarchical content structure or a combination of the three (Ramamritham

et al. 2006). Usually information on agricultural techniques, pests and diseases, and governmental

information are delivered in this way (Singh 2006b).

A third option are ICT-based systems which enable more interactive or less standardized queries.

Under the Question-and-Answer paradigm, farmers can send a query (a question) to a serviceprovider and will receive an answer from the provider (Singh 2006b; Meera & Jhamtani 2004;

Richardson 2006). Depending on the service, questions can be sent to the provider using mobile text-

message2, email

3, telephone or VoIP

4, website forms

5, or in a video-conference

6(Singh 2006b; Balaji

2e.g. RDAs AIS (Singh 2006b)3 e.g. RDAs AIS (Singh 2006b)4 e.g. Kisan Call Centers (Kumar 2005), Tamil Market (Plauch & Prabaker 2006)5 e.g. eChoupal (Singh 2006b)6 e.g. n-logue (N. Rao 2007b)


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& Meera 2007b; N. Rao 2007b; Kumar 2005). Answers are provided either immediately or

asynchronously within a certain time-frame. Answers can be provided either by an automated system

or by a human operator (Balaji & Meera 2007b; Ramamritham et al. 2006; Meera & Jhamtani 2004),

usually an extension worker or agricultural expert. For example, a farmer could inquire on growing

techniques for a special crop by posing a query via text message either to Googles automated mobilesearch engine (Heim 2009; Arnquist 2009) or to a provider in which an agricultural expert answers the

question.

4.1.2 Market Information and Access

ICTs can be a means to connect farmers to markets in a more efficient way (N. Rao 2007b; Singh

2006b). ICT-supported systems can provide accurate and timely market information on agricultural

commodities as well as services which allow farmers to buy inputs as well as sell the outputs they

produce (e-commerce) (N. Rao 2007b).

Market information are prices and quality of agricultural commodities (in- and outputs), the quantity

in supply or demand (for commodities and labour), handling and transaction costs, credit availability,

distribution and logistics information, and selling options (Rao 2007, p.496). ICT can cut thetransaction costs associated with information search (De Silva & Ratnadiwakara 2008). Availability of

market information empowers farmers against intermediaries through increased transparency (Singh

2006b). Without availability of accurate and timely market information, intermediaries have usually an

information advantage compared to farmers, and this information asymmetry can be exploited to the

disadvantage of the farmer. Availability of information on prices allows fairer prices to be reached

(FAO SDR & FAO WAICENT 2001). If price information is tied to additional information, such as

market location, distribution of the commodities is improved, as farmers can optimize the choice of

market place and their timing to buy or sell the commodities (Singh 2006b).

If the system provides e-commerce functions, such as buying and selling, additional benefits can be

achieved (N. Rao 2007b). In a supply chain that includes a buyer, seller and at least one intermediary,

e-commerce systems decrease costs for buyers and sellers by eliminating intermediaries and therefore

the costs attributed to them (N. Rao 2007b). This increases the profitability of the trades and with that

usually the farmers productivity as inputs become cheaper and outputs become more profitable (N.Rao 2007b). Another way e-commerce can benefit farmers is through demand aggregation (Singh

2006b; N. Rao 2007b). This is especially true for rural, small-holder farmers which are not associated.

While provision of market access to individual farmers may not be interesting for sellers of

agricultural input due to the involved high cost and risk; demand aggregation reduces risk and cost of

supply (N. Rao 2007b; Singh 2006b). Therefore, e-commerce systems that provide demand

aggregation connect farmers to input markets they werent able to access before and can thereforeincrease the access to quality inputs at lower prices (N. Rao 2007b; Singh 2006b).

4.1.3 Decision Support Systems

Decision Support Systems can enable farmers to make better, more informed decisions which can lead

to production-efficient use of input-factors and increased production output (Newman & Lynch 2000).

Precision Agriculture (PA) is a relatively recent farming technique which allows field management

dependent on spatial and temporal variability (Fountas & Pedersen 2005). It is based on site-specific

data and allows targeted agricultural actions, such as fertilizer application or irrigation, on sub-field

level (Fountas & Pedersen 2005). Main activities within the PA framework are data collection, data

processing and determination of input factor application quantities (Fountas & Pedersen 2005).

Benefits associated with precision agriculture are improved economic returns and a reduced

environmental impact of farming activities (Fountas & Pedersen 2005). As input factor efficiency is

improved, a global benefit is reduced use which increases sustainability.


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ICTs and other modern technologies, such as GPS, sensor systems (yield monitors, soil sensors, etc.),

automated application technologies, etc., are important components of PA (Fountas & Pedersen 2005;

Gebbers & Adamchuk 2010). The system works through on-going data collection, which collects data

on soil composition (Fountas & Pedersen 2005; Gebbers & Adamchuk 2010). Soil data can be

collected by analysing soil samples in the lab, through locally deployed sensor systems, and remote

sensing (Fountas & Pedersen 2005; Gebbers & Adamchuk 2010). Sensor systems can perform various

analyses such as soil structure measurement through electromagnetic induction, water measurement,

and chlorophyll-measurement through Hydro-Nitrogen sensors (Gebbers & Adamchuk 2010). Another

advantage of sensor systems, which can be deployed as networks, is the ability to produce up to real-

time information (Panchard et al. 2007; Gebbers & Adamchuk 2010). Remote-sensing utilizes orbiting

satellites or aerial reconnaissance planes which produce images of the target location that can be

analysed to determine relevant properties (e.g. soil structure or water content) (Gebbers & Adamchuk

2010). A limitation of remote-sensing is that current systems cannot penetrate the soil very deep so

that only the top-most layers are open to this kind of analysis (Panchard et al. 2007; Gebbers &

Adamchuk 2010). Another important sensor class are yield monitors, which are installed in harvesting

equipment (Fountas & Pedersen 2005; Gebbers & Adamchuk 2010). They analyse the quality of the

output as it is harvested and can relay the quality of the harvest with geographical information fromGPS, which allows input-output analyses (Fountas & Pedersen 2005; Gebbers & Adamchuk 2010).

The collected data can be analysed to support decision making regarding the quantity of used inputs

(Fountas & Pedersen 2005; Gebbers & Adamchuk 2010). PA software typically allows the generation

of maps from the data (yield-maps, soil-composition maps, etc.), data filtering and statistical analysis,

record keeping, and variable application rate computation (Fountas & Pedersen 2005; Gebbers &

Adamchuk 2010).

Farmers usually prefer to retain the data and use the software locally, but some companies and

government extension services introduced internet-based PA services which allow farmers to send

data to the service provider who analyses the data and produces maps, application rate- and other

agronomic recommendations (Fountas & Pedersen 2005). Interned-based decision support systems

have the advantage, that farmers have access to the latest up to date knowledge and software as well asexpert recommendations (Fountas & Pedersen 2005). If advisory services are used, advisors can guide

the farmers through field plans and farm operations from a central office (Fountas & Pedersen 2005).

Utilizing ICT for planning and recommendation sharing can reduce the time required and lead to faster

decisions (Fountas & Pedersen 2005).

4.2 Strategic Systems

4.2.1 Agricultural Research Information Systems

Agricultural Research Information Systems (ARIS) integrate and coordinate the flow of information

and access to knowledge resources between national agricultural research institutions (Maru 2002). An

ARIS uses ICT to facilitate communication and exchange of information on scientific, technical andresearch matters among participating institutions (Maru 2002). The benefits of a common information

system in agricultural research are based on realised synergies and have been stated as improvements

in research, in management and coordination of research activities, in access to information available

in the national research institutions and in improved protection of intellectual property rights (Maru

2002). A networked national research systems should also allow for inclusion of private commercial

and non-governmental organisations in collaborative research projects (Maru 2002). Additionally, a

networked research system should allow efficient dissemination of the acquired knowledge to

extension services and farmers (Maru 2002). A successful example profiled by Singh (2006) is South

Koreas Agricultural Information Service (AIS), developed and maintained by the countrys RuralDevelopment Administration (RDA). The system connected and integrated South Koreas nationalinstitutes into a high-speed computer network. It supports the researchers by providing a knowledge

portal and by enabling interaction between researchers and agricultural experts, which results in an


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improved quality of research and facilitates collaborative projects. The AIS is also built to quickly

disseminate knowledge to the users. Farmers can access a database on agricultural technology

information through a website or they can take internet-based training courses. The system also

connects farmers to researchers and experts through a Customer-Relationship-Management-System

(CRMS). Farmers can consult experts using e-mail or mobile text-messages (Short Message Service,

SMS), or in crop-wise virtual meeting rooms. The service therefore is a good example of an ARIS that

(a) supports and improves agricultural research and (b) efficiently and quickly disseminates the

generated knowledge to the users.

4.2.2 Geographic Information Systems

Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are automated systems that allow geospatial data to be

captured, stored, retrieved, analysed, and displayed (Clarke et al. 1996; Flor 2002). The systems

therefore add a spatial dimension to data analysis. GIS can be used to monitor environmental

sustainability of farming techniques, to evaluate the efficiency of agricultural techniques, to assess the

state of food security and vulnerabilities, to improve regional planning, and crisis preparedness (N.

Rao 2007b; Stephenson & Anderson 1997; Flor 2001).

GIS enable the analysis and interpretation of biophysical-, social-, economic-, and environmental

spatial information based on data from relevant data sets (e.g. geography, elevation models, soils

condition and structure, weather, land use, land cover, socioeconomic data, etc.) (N. Rao 2007b). Data

gathering methods can range from crowd-sourced, distributed data-entry using mobile devices

(Munyua et al. 2008; Arnquist 2009) to remote sensing (N. Rao 2007b; Food and Agriculture

Organization n.d.). The most important data source are probably the data sets gathered in various

institutions and organizations (N. Rao 2007b). In this case, provision of access to the data by the

institutions and standardized formats to facilitate exchange are important issues (N. Rao 2007b).

GIS-based systems can be used to compile data on input factor use, farm management techniques, and

output flows on the farm level, while aggregation of the data on a regional level allows the assessment

of the state of production and the efficiency of the employed farming techniques in a region (N. Rao

2007b). External effects of agricultural activity, such as ground water pollution or soil salinity, can

also be included in the measurement and analysis to assess the environmental and economic

sustainability of the farming activities (N. Rao 2007b).

Another important area of use for GIS-based systems are food security vulnerability assessment and

crisis detection (N. Rao 2007b; Stephenson & Anderson 1997). Systems that allow for the anticipation

of potential risks and provide early warning allow policymakers to reduce vulnerabilities and to plan a

response to occurring crises (Evans 2011). These Early Warning Systems (EWS) can be implemented

on a national scale or on an international scale. An example of the former is the German national food

security assessment system IS-ENV (Bundesanstalt fr Landwirtschaft und Ernhrung (BLE) 2011),

which is being operated by the Federal Office for Agriculture and Food (Gizewski 2008). The system

is comprised of three components: An internal information portal (FIS-ENV), a Geographic

Information System (GIS-ENV) and a public information portal (Bundesanstalt fr Landwirtschaftund Ernhrung (BLE) 2011; Gizewski 2008). The system is used to disseminate and communicate the

available information on the state of food security (Gizewski 2008), to facilitate coordination between

the relevant institutions (Bundesanstalt fr Landwirtschaft und Ernhrung (BLE) 2011), and to support

the relevant institutions in the management of acute food security crises through provision of spatial-

statistical data as well as analysis and visualization of crisis-scenarios and planning options

(Bundesanstalt fr Landwirtschaft und Ernhrung (BLE) 2011). On an international scale, the Food

and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and other international agencies operate and

maintain a number GIS-based monitoring and early warning systems (N. Rao 2007b). The most

important of which is probably the Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and

Agriculture (GIEWS), conceived and operated since 1975, it is the United Nations major provider ofinformation on food supply and demand (Food and Agriculture Organization n.d.). The system

continuously monitors food supply and demand in all countries; it collects and analyses information on


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global production of agricultural goods, stocks, food aid and trade in agricultural commodities (Food

and Agriculture Organization n.d.). It makes extensive use of remote-sensing capabilities, by

estimating the state of crop production from frequently taken satellite images and prediction of it

through satellite weather information (Food and Agriculture Organization n.d.). The system uses this

and other data to predict global food supply and demand and to calculate food import requirements; it

also monitors global agricultural markets and warns of market events that indicate a possible major

rise of food prices (Food and Agriculture Organization n.d.).

5 Conclusion

The world population is growing. Which size it will ultimately reach by 2050 is a question that can

only be answered with a high degree of uncertainty right now. What is clear, however, is that major

changes in the global structure will follow as a consequence of the fact that most of the growth will

occur in the developing world while the population of the developed countries will remain fairly

stable. In addition to that, rising affluence in some countries which are on the economic rise, like India

and China, whose consumers are demanding an increasingly better diet, shift global consumption

patterns and food prices.

The essential question, whether or not the resources provided by our planet can accommodate the

growing number of people, is age old7

and comes up repeatedly from time to time. When it came up

and it seemed as if a production ceiling had been reached, humankind was able to push the barrier

further (Koning 2008b). Whether or not this will be possible this time, considering the staggering

number of people, is a question only the future can answer. It is however clear that an increase of the

global production of food is necessary to feed the world in the future.

In this paper, we therefore investigated if there are applications of Information and Communication

technologies (ICTs) that can mitigate the problems that arise from a growing population and that can

align resource consumption with the rising demand. The answer is yes, there are a wide variety of

applications for ICTs. However, this is not unqualified:

Even with the current innovativeness of ICT's for the demand of a better human condition, an ever

increasing Population is still a problem in many developing countries where the socio-economic

development is still under progress. The reason in most of the cases is slow progress and bad

infrastructure in the developing countries. To add to that unequal distribution of fertility increases the

socio-economic inequalities. More focus on health care is needed in less developed countries for better

and more humane living standards and socio-economic development. With more innovativeness in the

field of ICT, the future of human development is on the rise.

ICTs can support production growth in agriculture. They can help individual farmers by providing

them with access to knowledge on efficient production techniques and technologies and they can

connect them to agricultural experts. They also provide market information and access, which allows

farmers to profit from lower transaction costs, fairer prices and improved access to quality inputs.

ICTs can also help in allowing farmers to efficiently use input factors and to optimize their productionthrough information-driven decision making. Access to the necessary technologies is however

expensive, and in the short-term bio-engineered crops and liberal input factor use may be better to

quickly increase production (Fountas & Pedersen 2005). With increasing factor costs and reduced

hardware costs, information-driven decision making will play an essential role in increasing the

production efficiency and sustainability of agriculture in the future.

ICTs can also be strategically applied to improve agricultural research and to streamline the

dissemination of the generated knowledge to the users. GIS-based solutions are already being used in

food security monitoring, production efficiency evaluation on a regional level and to provide early

7 See (Malthus 1798)


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warning to detect and avert food security crises caused by unexpected shocks. They allow

policymakers and relief-organizations to plan a response ahead of time and improve reactions to acute

crises.

All in all, ICTs can play a role in mitigating the problems that arise from an increasing demand for

food and a production system that may have reached its efficiency barrier. They are however mostlycatalysts of innovation and although they play an important part, it is essential to push for a solution to

this challenge on all fronts.

Appendix

Table 1 - Concept summary

Subconcept Artefact Role of IT

DemandSocially responsible

functions

DISK, Radio Web

browsing,

GrameenPhone.

Information

Distribution,

Communication,

Decisions Support.

Universal Healthcare Telemedicine project,

RESCUER, MARA

Information

Distribution,

Communication.

Environmental care

functions

RAISON-GIS, Low

cost digital mapping

Sustainable Solutions,

Information

Distribution.

Supply Farmer centricfunctions

Information portal,Decision Support

System,

GIS

Knowledgedissemination,

Decision support, e-

commerce

Farmer centric

functions

ARIS,

Information portals,

GIS

Knowledge

management,

communication,

Coordination,

Monitoring,

Detection,

Early Warning


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Table 2 - Selected Applications

Dimension

Name of the

application

Country of

application

Description of the

application Benefits

Rural

Development

Radio Web

browsing Srilanka

Community radio forbroadcasting a daily

programme on different

awareness topics

including rural

development and growth

and health. Also known

as Kothmale community

radio.

Public

awareness,

Better decisions

Rural

Development InforCauca project Colombia

community telecenters as

an appropriate means for

building local capacity toobtain and use

information relevant to

economic development

and sustainable

management of natural

resources in a

marginalized region.

Skill

improvement,access to

markets, Public

awareness to

food security

and socio

economic

development.

Rural

development GrameenPhone Bangladesh

To significantly improve

communications and to

stimulate new commerce

by funding mobilephones in each of

Bangladesh's 68,000

villages.

Creating small

telephone call-

box businesses,Communication

in remote areas

of the country.

Rural

development U-Connect Uganda

Uganda Connect

represents an innovative

solution to establishing a

network used to link

NGOs in Uganda by

means of HF radio

transmission.

Free-to-air'

solution with

connecting the

NGO's,

Improves

development

with better

coordination.

Poverty

reduction

Dairy Information

System Kiosk India

Provides relevant

information to farmers

through a database that

contains complete

histories of all cattle

owned by members of the

cooperative and a dairy

portal connected to the

Internet.

Increased

development as

better decision

support system

available for

growth.


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Dimension

Name of the

application

Country of

application

Description of the


Health SatelLife

North America,

Europe and

many

developing

countries

SatelLife is a non-profit

international organization

that aims to use moderncommunication

technologies to link

medical centers and

physicians throughout the

world.

Information

transmission,

permits severale-mail accounts

to be set up in

each remote

location using

radio links

Health

HealthNet

Information Services

28 different

countries inAsia, Africa

and Latin

America.

HealthNet is an electronic

network set up to give

health professionals in

developing countriesaccess to a range of

health related

information.

Information on

heath drugs in

remote areas,

dissemination of

information

concerned withemerging

infectious

diseases.

Health

Proyecto de

Telemedicina Costa Rica

Project aimed at

minimizing the need to

travel long distances to

the major hospitals in San

Jose, costa Rica.

Better

connectivity and

increased public

awareness on

heath.

Health

MARA, Mapping

Malaria Risk

African

Continent

Project established to

map malaria infestation in

sub-Saharan Africa.

Special databaseto identify areas

most at risk and

determine the

effectiveness of

the techniques

for controlling

the disease.

Health

Record-keeping in

health care Ghana

In Ghana, it is planned to

set up a structured

electronic record-keeping

system in health care

institutions.

Improvements

in information

and

communication

for the patients,physicians,

administrators

and planners in

health care

institutions

thereby

increasing

efficiency and

effectiveness.


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Dimension

Name of the

application

Country of

application

Description of the


Health RESCUER Uganda

RESCUER is short for RuralExtended Services and Care

for Ultimate Emergency Relief

used to lower maternal

mortality in Uganda.

Maternal

mortality

dropped by

50%.

Environment

Low Cost Digital

Mapping Turkey

Images produced by a small

demonstration project in

Turkey demonstrate the

increasing capabilities that

ICTs have for providing high-

tech/ low cost project

solutions. Images produced by

digital camera flown on a

small light aircraft used for

planning and infrastructure

design purposes.

Low cost

sustainable

solutions.

Environment RAISON-GIS Canada

Regional Analysis by

Intelligent Systems ON

microcomputers Geographic

Information System

(RAISON-GIS) is a software

system developed by the IDRC

in Canada. It is being used in

different parts of the world as

a tool to analyze the quality of

drinking water.

Information on

the nature of

sanitation

facilities and

sources of fresh

potable water.

Environment

Schiphol Real

Estateoffice

building

simulation Netherlands

Schiphol Real Estate is using

DesignBuilder in conjunction

with EnergyPlus to simulatethe energy performance of

office building projects.

Enable a 90% reduction in the

consumption of natural gas

and a 40% reduction in the

consumption of electricity.

Sustainable

solution,

Environmental

and resource

management.

Food

promotions

& patterns UMA MEKK Estonia

Local food promotion,

marketing, Rural region image

improvement and Increasing

number of local food

producers.

Environmental

food marketing.


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Dimension

Name of the

application

Country of

application

Description of the


Knowledge

dissemination

/ E-

Commerce eChoupal India

Provides information on

agriculture, government

schemes, weather, market

information, and e-commerce

functions. Provided through

an information kiosk.

Improvedagricultural

knowledge,

reduction of

transaction

costs,

elimination of

intermediaries

Knowledge

Dissemination

Multichannel

Learning

Centers

Papua New

Guinea

Organisation of local tribes to

to jointly harvest, market and

export local crops. Use of

MLCs and radio to educated.

Sustainability:

Management

and

conservation of

local rainforest

Knowledge

Dissemination

Kisan Call

Centers India

Toll-free helpline for farmers.

Call-centers are staffed with

agricultural graduates with

access to a computer and

knowledge repository.

Quick answers

to questions in

local language.

Knowledge

Dissemination aAqua India

Web-based information

portal. Information on

agricultural techniques, crops

knowledge, pest and disease,

market information.

Improved

agricultural

knowledge


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Dimension

Name of the

application

Country of

application

Description of the


ARIS AIS South Korea

Interconnected

agricultural research

institutions on anational level, quick

contact to experts for

farmers through

customer management

system, information

portal.

Improvedresearch; quick

dissemination

of generated

knowledge.

Access to

experts.

Monitoring/Early

Warning IS-ENV Germany

National food security

monitoring system.

Provides access to up-

to-date information on

food supply and

demand. Allows forcrisis planning and

quick reaction.

Facilitates

communication and

coordination.

Information portal for

public.

Improved

planning and

coordination;

Informs public.

Monitoring/Early

Warning GIEWS

International

(FAO)

Monitors global

demand and supply for

food. Through

production and market

surveillance. Predicts

food production and

supply, detects

potential crises.

Quicker

response,

allows

vulnerability

assessment and

planning

Sensor network

COMMONSense

Net Switzerland/India

Experimental low-cost

sensor network for

decision support

Affordable and

hardened for

conditions in

developing

countries


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