TelecomTelecom

a brief historya brief history

Prasanto K Roy, Dec 2012

Prasanto K Roy, Dec 2012

pkr@cybermedia.co.in

pkr@cybermedia.co.in

www.ciol.comwww.ciol.com

ICT

$163

BIC

T $1

63B

9.7%

of G

DP

9.7%

of G

DP

IT IT $76B Exports

$76B Exports $36B Domestic

$36B DomesticTelecom Telecom $24B Equipmt

$24B Equipmt$38B Services

$38B Services

12% CAGR over 2 yrs

IT C

ross

es $

100B

IT C

ross

es $

100B

Rev $B $ growth

Exports 76 16.5%Domestic 36 10.7%Total 112 14.7%

IT’s

24%

Dec

ade

IT’s

24%

Dec

ade

47/$ 48/$

Tele

com

Ind

ia:

Tele

com

Ind

ia:

5 yr

s, 7

%5

yrs,

7%

Tele

com

’11-

12

Tele

com

’11-

12…

flat

… fl

at

INR 296,000 cr3.6% growth

$B

Tele

com

’11-

12:

Tele

com

’11-

12:

wha

t hap

pen

ed?

wha

t hap

pen

ed?

NTP “2011”: NTP “2011”: ‘Will they, won’t they?’

‘Will they, won’t they?’ The industry froze

The industry froze No expansion

No expansion No new equipment

No new equipment No new investment

No new investment

Tele

com

’11-

12:

Tele

com

’11-

12:

wha

t hap

pen

ed?

wha

t hap

pen

ed?

2G scam ghost

2G scam ghost 122 licenses canceled

122 licenses canceled Many shut shop:

Many shut shop:S Tel, Etisalat, Swan 

S Tel, Etisalat, Swan  2G auction ‘flop’

2G auction ‘flop’<10k cr (40k proj)

<10k cr (40k proj)

Tele

com

’11-

12:

Tele

com

’11-

12:

wha

t hap

pen

ed?

wha

t hap

pen

ed?

Cellular Cellular

65%65% of services industry

of services industry revenuerevenue

Tele

com

’11-

12:

Tele

com

’11-

12:

wha

t hap

pen

ed?

wha

t hap

pen

ed?

Mobile subscriptions

Mobile subscriptions dipped: 10-15 mn/month

dipped: 10-15 mn/month

to 5-6 mn/month

to 5-6 mn/month Consolidation:

Consolidation:150 handset brands

150 handset brands down to 15 brands

down to 15 brands

Con

solid

atio

n

Con

solid

atio

n

Handset brands

Handset brands < 2008

7 2008..2011 150 2012 15

Con

solid

atio

n

Con

solid

atio

n

OperatorsOperators< 2008< 2008

7 72008-20122008-2012

1616201220121212

20132013

1010 ? ?

Tari

ff H

ikes

Tari

ff H

ikes Airtel Jul ’11 R’com Sep ’12 Idea Apr ’12 Vodafone May ’12 rising costs, declinng ARPU

2013

: Roa

m F

ree

2013

: Roa

m F

ree Jan ’13

Jan ’13 (NTP ’12)(NTP ’12) Cut inactive, multi-SIM

Cut inactive, multi-SIM use, total #suse, total #s 77% active: 699 /

77% active: 699 / 906906 mn mn608608 mn people mn people

b

Broadband: Broadband:

E-k

iller

E-k

iller

BB’s

dat

a ca

pBB

’s d

ata

cap

Ek Tha Tiger:

Ek Tha Tiger:iTunes India Rs 80

iTunes India Rs 80(plus Rs 180 (plus Rs 180 broadband costs)

broadband costs)

http://kpcb.com/insights/2012-internet-trends

http://kpcb.com/insights/2012-internet-trends

SMS

@20

SM

S @

20 v

svs

Face

boo

k M

sgr

Face

boo

k M

sgr

8 tn SMS, 6 bn users

8 tn SMS, 6 bn users ‘‘SMS killer’?

SMS killer’?Facebook Messenger

Facebook Messenger launches India, targets

launches India, targets

‘next billion’‘next billion’

Last

Fro

ntie

r:

Last

Fro

ntie

r:E

nerg

yE

nerg

y

400k towers (Indus 120k)

400k towers (Indus 120k)

Tower-share (exc BSNL)

Tower-share (exc BSNL) 2 bn lit. diesel, Rs 10k cr

2 bn lit. diesel, Rs 10k cr 10k towers on

10k towers on alternative energy

alternative energy TAIPA: 50k towers on

TAIPA: 50k towers on renewable energy 2020

renewable energy 2020

ICT

2011

-202

0

ICT

2011

-202

0

Prasanto K Roy,

Prasanto K Roy, Dec 2012Dec 2012pkr@cybermedia.co.in

pkr@cybermedia.co.inwww.ciol.com

www.ciol.com