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Transcript of icbp 19-11-2012
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Stock Fokus
PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk.
Strong Brand Loyalty
Indonesia Familiar Product
PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk is an established
market-leading producer of packaged food products with a
diverse range of products providing everyday food
solutions for consumer of all ages. Proven experience in
selling instant noodles, has become a challenge for the
company in developing other divisions. The Indonesian
economy continues to grow, this is an opportunity of high
market share, we are confident ICBP can see opportunities
and maximize the development of products and sales.
Gross Profit Up Slightly, Strong Cash Flow Position
In the 3Q12 company posted a gross profit margin of 26.6%
higher than 3Q11 26.02%. While QoQ gross profit margin
grew 2.7%, to 27.98% due to lower prices of basic
commodities for noodles division. We predict the
company's sales growth is going to reach 12.6% in 2012
and 10% going forward. ICBP has a strong position of
November, 13 2012November, 13 2012
Target Price Target Price RpRp 8,4008,400
Price (09/11) Price (09/11) RpRp 7,2007,200
Recommendation Buy Recommendation Buy
Upside PotentialUpside Potential 16.7%16.7%
Sector Food & BeverageSector Food & Beverage
Ticker (Bloomberg) ICBP.IJTicker (Bloomberg) ICBP.IJ
Share Issued (m) 5,830Share Issued (m) 5,830
Market Cap (IDR m) 42.274Market Cap (IDR m) 42.274
Major Shareholders:Major Shareholders:PT Indofood (INDF) (80.5%)PT Indofood (INDF) (80.5%)PublikPublik (19.4%)(19.4%)
EQUITY RESEARCH 1111
Stock and 10% going forward. ICBP has a strong position of
operating cash flow, small DER & expansion capability
using internal cash.
Valuation, Recommendation : Buy
We use a DCF valuation, base assumption to 2013 & find
value of PE estimated at 19.2 with EPS of 436 16.7 %
discount from the price now. On the basis we arrive at a TP
of Rp 8,400. We are optimist our numbers are achievable as
ICBP 9M12 earnings have already reached 74.4%. Thus the
high growth in the snack food will still remain in the 4th
quarter, and rapid volume in noodles could achieve 7%
growth in 2012.
Hi Hi Lo 52 weeks Lo 52 weeks ((RpRp) 4.875 ) 4.875 7.750 7.750
AvgAvg VolVol TransaksiTransaksi (3M) (3M) 14.039.30014.039.300
Historical Chart
Monchita Wintion Pangemanan
Source : Company, Reliance Research
EXHIBIT 1. Financial Statements Summary
Rp Bn 2010 2011 2012E 2013F 2014F
Sales 17,960 19,367 21,820 23,953 26,426
EBT 2,519 2,745 3,114 3,554 3,909
Net Income 1,704 1,975 2,227 2,541 2,796
EPS 344 339 382 436 479
growth -1.5% 12.7% 14.1% 10.0%
ROA (%) 13.7% 13.6% 13.8% 14.3% 14.1%
ROE (%) 19.6% 19.3% 19.4% 19.6% 19.2%
P/E (x) 14.8 14.7 19.0 16.63 15.1
PBV (x) 2.91 2.83 3.50 3.09 2.76
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Stock Fokus
Industry Overview
Indonesia GDP figure was at 6.17% in the third quartal of 2012. Reliances estimates of GDP
until the end of 2012, will be in the range of 6.3 6.5. Meanwhile, we see a growth in
purchasing power increases. Realization of investment in Q3 2012 for the food processing
industry reached 11.8% of total domestic investment (DCI)
With a population of over 250 million people & 45 million middle class , Indonesia is a country
that has a huge potential market. The survey of consumer behavior found that food &
beverage products has become the most daily consumer goods purchased by consumers,
where 25.4% is used for instant noodles shopping.
Furthermore, Indonesia's dairy industry continues to experience growth. Indonesia is the
lowest country that consumes milk in Asean. This is an excellent opportunity for ICBP. The
Company may undertake strategies such as introducing people to milk even more, promoting
the consumption of milk, & distributing the dairy products for people to access easily. We
believe the company can increase market penetration of milk after what has been achieved
from selling instant noodles. We are optimistic that growth in dairy consumption in the
coming years will increase significantly supported by the development of production capacity.
PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk.
2222EQUITY RESEARCH
coming years will increase significantly supported by the development of production capacity.
EXHIBIT 2. Macro Economic Indicators
EXHIBIT 4. Indonesia Consumer Behavior
Source : Worldpanel Indonesia
EXHIBIT 3. Dairy Consumption
12.85
50.9
47.1
44.5
33.7
14.3
13.7
0 20 40 60
Indonesia
Malaysia
India
Singapura
Thailand
Vietnam
Filipina
Source : Kompas
81%
25.4%
7.5% 6.3%
Rice Instant Noodles Cooking Oil Sugar
Source : BPS, Reliance Research
Macro Assumption
2010 2011 2012E 2013F
GDP growth (% yoy) 6.1 6.5 6.3 6.5
Inflation rate (% yoy) 6.96 3.79 5.3 5.1
BI rate (% yoy) 6.5 6 5.75 5.75
Exchange Rate (Rp/USD, average) 9,741 8,779 9,550 9,500
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Stock Fokus
Company Overview
ICBP was established as a separate entity in September 2009 and listed on the Indonesia
Stock Exchange (IDX) on October 7, 2010. It was established by means of internal
restructuring of the Consumer Branded Product (CBP) Group of PT Indofood Sukses
Makmur Tbk (Indofood), the parent company, listed on the IDX since 1994.
ICBP has been producing noodles with a brand named Sarimi in 1982. Then it continued
issuing instant noodles with various well known brands in the community that is Indomie,
Supermie, and Pop Mie. The company has been a market leader of instant noodle
manufacturer. ICBP diversified its business by developing products and special nutritional
foods, then set up a joint venture with Seven-Up Nederland BV which is an affiliated company
PepsiCo Inc. that manufactures snack food. The Company launched the first brands such as
Chitato, Chiki, and Jetz, then Qtela.
In the subsequent years, ICBP expanded to seasoning food division (1991), and later diary
(2008) by acquiring Drayton Pte. Ltd. which has a 68.87% stake in PT Indolakto that produces
brands such as Bendera and Indomilk. In 2012, the company established a joint venture with
a well known Japanese consumer company, namely Asahi Group Holdings LTd. Diversified
business ensued with the joint venture, the company will enter into a non-alcoholic beverage
PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk.
3333EQUITY RESEARCH
business ensued with the joint venture, the company will enter into a non-alcoholic beverage
business clients division.
Instant noodles
began production
under the brand
Sarimi, and Indomie,
Supermi and Pop
Mie respectively in
1984, 1986 and
1988
Go to the snacks food
business division with
51:49 joint venture with
Seven-Up Nederland BV,
affiliation with PepsiCo
Inc. with brand Chitato,
Chiki and Jetz
Confectionery business division
began operating two brands,
"Trenz" For young people and
adults, and "Wonderland" for
the family segment. In 2011,
the brand Bim Bim was
launched to reach out to the
kids market.
1982 1985 1990 1991 2005 2008
Go to the division of
nutrition and special
foods, Promina
launched as the first
brand, followed by
the brand "SUN" in
1989
Log into division flavoring
foods with soy products
named Piring Lombok and
Niki Echo. In 1992, the
brand launched Indofood
soy sauce and seasoning
for instant products.
The Company began dairy
division by acquiring
Drayton Pte Ltd. Which has
65.87% of PT Indolakto,
which is the second largest
player in the Indonesian
dairy industry
INDF.IJ
AgribusinessBogasariConsumer Branded
ProductsDistribution
ICBP.IJPublic
80.5%19.4%
EXHIBIT 5. Ownership Structure
Source : Company
EXHIBIT 6. Company Milestone
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Stock Fokus
EXHIBIT 6. SWOT Analysis
PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk.
4444EQUITY RESEARCH
Source : Reliance Research
Strength Opportunity
Market leader for instant noodles
product. Even, Indomie has
become a very common term to
call instant noodles in Indonesia.
Taste has adhered in society.
Increased purchasing power,
as economic conditions
improved
Strong distribution reach areas in
Indonesia. Supported by the
spread of production facilities.
Lifestyle of modern society,
which led to increased
demand for food and
beverages that can be quickly
cooked
Product Diversification
Weakness Threat
Fluctuating commodity prices
High levels of competition
Negative sentiment toward
the content of the product
Most of the raw materials are
imported, thus the fluctuation of
exchange rate are affect gross
profit margin result
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Stock Fokus
Noodles Division
This division is the largest contributor, 70% of total consolidated sales. ICBP is a market
leader in the sale of instant noodles. Having a strong brand positioning in which the Indomie
brand has been grounded in the minds of the public. In recent years the company sells the
instant noodles product in a fierce competition. Volume in 2011 decreased 3.5% (YoY) but net
sales grew 7% (YoY). We are optimistic that this division will remain the No. 1 manufacturer of
instant noodles in Indonesia, with experience more than 20 years the company will perform
for maximum effort to increase sales volume. We predict a 7% (YoY) increase in volumes this
year, sales of this division managed to grow 11% and 22% (YoY) as compared to the same
period last year noodles sales growth of 8% and 0.4%. Thus in third quarter, volume grew
12.1% from 8.31 billion in 2011 to 9.32 billion in 2012.
12.03
10.82 11.03
11.45
11.05
11.82 12.18
12.54 12.92
-
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1,000.0
1,200.0
1,400.0
1,600.0
9.50
10.00
10.50
11.00
11.50
12.00
12.50
13.00
13.50
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F
Exhibit 8. Noodles Volume & Average Selling Price
69.6%
23.0%
3.0%
1.2%
0.9%
2.3%
Indomie
Mie Sedap
Supermie
Gaga mie
Sarimi
Others
Exhibit 7. Noodles Market Share
PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk.
5555EQUITY RESEARCH
Dairy Division
Dairy produced by IDLK, a subsidiary of the company with a 68.6% ownership. This division
produces sweetened condensed milk (SKM), ultra-high temperature milk (UHT), milk in sterile
bottles, pasteurized milk, milk powder, butter, yogurt and ice cream drinks. Dairy is the
second largest contributor of total consolidated sales of approximately 19.1% in 2011. The
company is currently building a plant to increase production capacity. We see that Indonesia
has a huge potential market for dairy division.
Source : Company, Reliance ResearchVolume ASP
Source: Mars Indonesia
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0%
Source : Company, Reliance Research
Exhibit 9. Dairy Sales and Growth (YoY) Exhibit 10. Indonesia Dairy, Milk, Nonfat Dry Consumption/ Year
Source : Index Mundi
806
1,014 894
980 938 1,064
904
9%
3%
8%
12%12%
19%
6%
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
11Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3e
Dairy Growth YoY
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Stock Fokus
Food Seasoning
Marketed by NICI (joint venture between Nestle SA with ICBP50%), the company produces soy sauce,
chili sauce, tomato sauce, seasonings and broth with their instant Indofood, Plate Lombok, Indofood
racik and Maggi, while the production to the sales process run by the FS division. The increased
production capacity in Central Java chili sauce completed this year and production facilities for dry
mixes that are expected to finish 2013. Thus, we are optimistic on the growth of sales for food
seasoning can grow over 20% this year and next year in line with the increasing demand due to the
growth of public welfare.
Snack Food
Some brands of snacks like-Qtela, Chitato, Lays, Jetz, Cheetos, Chiki, Trenz, and Wonderland are known
successfully in the community. Produced by IFL which is a joint venture ICBP (51%) with Seven-Up
Netherlands, BV (an affiliate of PepsiCo Inc.). In 2011 contributed 2.64%, on third quarter grew 24%
(YoY), and slightly decline 0.3% in QoQ growth due to Eid Season in last quarter was over. Snack food
booked highest growth year on year this year.
Nutrition and Special Food
This division produces special food for infants and children and milk for pregnant and lactating
mothers. It gives the smallest contribution to the total net sales. Slow growth in 2011 of 1.1%. QoQ
growth until the first half of 2012 grew but not as brighter as the same period in 2011. We forecast the
growth of this division will be around 4%, and the percentage of contribution from this division will
PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk.
6666EQUITY RESEARCH
growth of this division will be around 4%, and the percentage of contribution from this division will
shrink along with the rapid growth of the division of instant noodles, food seasoning, and snack food.
Noodles, 70%
Dairy, 19%Food
Seasoning, 5
%
Snack
Food, 6%
Special
Food, 3%
Source : Company, Reliance Research
Exhibit 11. Breakdown of Company Sales
11Q3 12Q3 YoY 9M11 9M12 YoY
Total Sales 5,027 5,309 5.6% 14,450 16,228 12.3%
Noodles 3,583 3,809 6.3% 10,129 11,423 12.8%
Dairy 894 904 1.1% 2,713 2,906 7.1%
Food Seasoning 274 291 6.2% 800 917 14.7%
Snack Food 308 382 24.0% 875 1,123 28.3%
Nutrition & Special Food 102 100 -2.2% 379 364 -4.0%
11Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4e
Noodles Dairy Food seasoning Snack Foods Special Foods
Source : Company, Reliance Research
Exhibit 12. Segment Income from Operations per Division
Exhibit 13. Companys Third Quartal Sales
Source : Company
-
Stock Fokus
PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk.
Exhibit 14. Sugar Price Exhibit 15. Wheat Price
Source : Index Mundi Source : Index Mundi
Exhibit 16. CPO Price
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Exhibit 17. Skim Milk Powder Price
7777EQUITY RESEARCH
Source : Index Mundi
0
500
1000
Jan
-08
Ma
r-0
8
Ma
y-0
8
Au
g-0
8
Oc
t-0
8
De
c-0
8
Ma
r-0
9
Ma
y-0
9
Jul-
09
Oc
t-0
9
De
c-0
9
Fe
b-1
0
Ma
y-1
0
Jul-
10
Se
p-1
0
No
v-1
0
Fe
b-1
1
Ap
r-1
1
Jun
-11
Se
p-1
1
No
v-1
1
Jan
-12
Ma
r-1
2
Jun
-12
Au
g-1
2
Source :AAE
Gross Profit Margin Hoovering Above 25%
Gross profit margin experienced a significant growth since 2007 (16%) and recently (12Q3) has
reached 27%, although in 2011 slightly decreased due to the increase in raw material prices.
We believe in the future the company can maintain the proportion of margin above 25% &
continue to rise due to lower prices of raw materials, & the company strategy in reducing the
cost of raw materials.
EXHIBIT 18. Gross Profit Margin
Source : Company, Reliance Research
16.1%17.5%
24.0%
27.7% 26.0% 25.8% 25.8%26.7%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013F 2014F
-
Stock Fokus
Increase in Sales and GA Expenses
In the third quarter, general administrative expense hikes 56.02% (YoY) due to an increase in
number of worker to fulfill the new production capacity. We believe this is only temporarily
and will be back to normal when the production capacity start to operate.
Healthy Balance Sheet
ICBP continue to have healthy balance sheet and strong cash flow position. The huge
internal cash position enable to accommodate capital expenditure, which is budgeted for
expanding noodle and dairy capacity. We estimate the dividend payout ratio will be at 50%,
while management has distribute 40% dividend payout ratio for 2010s net profit.
Valuation
We calculate the valuation using DCF method. We find fair value of Rp 8400 on a 2013 PE of
19.2x, far below the P/E industry of 32.16 and P/E sector of 32.12 (data: Reuters). We
believe there is still a chance for the stock price to increase after 34% gained (YTD). We are
optimist because ICBP has become a market leader in some of its products, the company's
instant noodles division has a pricing power to cover the cost of volatility spikes as occurred
in 2011. Meanwhile, corporate actions such as expansion of the company, over time, has
PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk.
8888EQUITY RESEARCH
in 2011. Meanwhile, corporate actions such as expansion of the company, over time, has
become a source of new revenue, the opportunity to pursue sales division of instant
noodles.
-
Stock Fokus
EXHIBIT 19. Financial Highlights
INCOME STATEMENT
Rp Bn 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013F 2014F
Sales 16,333 17,960 19,367 21,820 23,953 26,426
COGS 12,420 12,977 14,336 16,200 17,776 19,378
Gross Profit 3,913 4,983 5,031 5,620 6,177 7,049
SGA Expenses (1,598) (2,113) (2,347) (2,391) (2,816) (3,069)
Other Operating income (Exp) (177) (105) (33) (32) (32) (32)
Operating Income 2,138 2,871 2,684 3,229 3,361 3,979
EBT 1,566 2,519 2,745 3,114 3,554 3,909
Tax (430) (667) (679) (770) (878) (966)
Minority Interest 0 124 91 117 134 147
Net Income 1,078 1,704 1,975 2,227 2,541 2,796
BALANCE SHEET
Rp Bn 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013F 2014F
Cash 696 3,408 4,421 5,462 6,261 7,527
A/R 1,476 2,026 2,378 2,372 2,737 3,012
Inventory 1,311 1,422 1,630 1,774 1,972 2,158
Fixed Asset 2,180 2,305 2,590 3,207 3,653 4,252
Others 5,256 7,608 8,625 9,577 10,291 11,477
Total Asset 10,224 13,361 15,223 16,931 18,652 20,899
9999EQUITY RESEARCH
Source : Company, Reliance Research
Short term debt 1,360 405 418 418 0 0
Long term debt 42 15 146 235 379 553
Others 0 3,579 3,950 4,192 4,612 5,002
Total Equity 1,625 9,362 10,710 12,086 13,661 15,344
Total Liability and Equity 10,224 13,361 15,223 16,931 18,652 20,899
Cash Flow
Rp Bn 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013F 2014F
Net Profit 1,078 1,837 2,064 2,344 2,675 2,943
Depreciation 1,969 208 227 256 285 319
Working Capital (94) (214) (396) 28 (266) (209)
Others (15) 158 172 42 87 97
Operation Cash Flow 2,939 1,988 2,067 2,671 2,781 3,149
Capex (1,973) (332) (512) (873) (730) (918)
Others 199 233 55 95 120 120
Investing Cash Flow (1,774) (99) (457) (779) (610) (798)
Change in Equity (1,685) 6,178 49 64 73 77
Dividend 0 (144) (676) (1,032) (1,172) (1,338)
Others 713 (5,211) 31 118 (273) 175
Financing Cash Flow (972) 823 (597) (850) (1,373) (1,085)
Change in Cash 193 2,712 1,013 1,042 798 1,266
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Stock Fokus
Growth (YoY) 2010 2011 2012E 2013F 2014F
Sales 10% 8% 13% 10% 10%
Gross Income 27% 1% 12% 10% 14%
Operating Income 34% -6% 20% 4% 18%
Net Income 58% 16% 13% 14% 10%
Gross margin 28% 26% 26% 26% 27%
Operating margin 16% 14% 15% 14% 15%
Net profit margin 9% 10% 10% 11% 11%
RoA 14% 14% 14% 14% 14%
RoE 20% 19% 19% 20% 19%
Current Ratio 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.7 3.9
Quick Ratio 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.9 3.2
DER 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04
Asset Turnover 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
Inventory Turnover 9.5 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.4
EXHIBIT 20. Financial Highlights
Source : Company, Reliance Research
11110000EQUITY RESEARCH
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Stock Fokus
HEAD OFFICE
Reliance BuildingJl. Pluit Kencana No. 15A, Pluit Penjaringan Jakarta 14450T +62 21 661 7768F +62 21 661 9884
EQUITY DIVISION
Jakarta- PluitJl. Pluit Kencana No. 15A Pluit Penjaringan Jakarta 14450T + 62 21 661 7768F + 62 21 661 9884
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MalangJl. Guntur No. 19Malang 65112T + 62 341 347 611 F + 62 341 347 615
Surabaya - GubengJl. Bangka No. 22Surabaya 60281T + 62 31 501 1128F + 62 31 503 3196
Jakarta Kebon JerukPlaza Kebon JerukJl.Raya Perjuangan Blok A/2Jakarta 11530T + 62 21 532 4074 F + 62 21 536 2157
Bandung Jl.Cisangkuy No.58Bandung 40115T + 62 22 721 8200F + 62 22 721 9255
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RESEARCH DIVISION
Wilson Sofan [email protected]
Jasa Adhi Mulya [email protected]
Monchita W. P. [email protected]
Christine Natasya [email protected]
11111111EQUITY RESEARCH
Disclaimer:Informasi, opini dan rekomendasi yang terdapat dalam dokumen ini disajikan oleh PT Reliance Securities Tbk. dari sumber-sumber yangdianggap terpercaya dan dapat diandalkan. Dokumen ini bukan merupakan penawaran, invitasi atau representasi dalam bentuk apapununtuk pengambilan keputusan membeli maupun menjual saham. Keputusan investasi yang diambil berdasarkan dokumen ini bukanmerupakan tanggung jawab PT Reliance Securities Tbk. PT Reliance Securities Tbk. berhak untuk merubah isi dokumen ini sewaktu-waktutanpa pemberitahuan terlebih dahulu.
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