STUDYONEMPLOYABILITYSKILLS

INTHEIBDIPLOMAPROGRAMME

ANDCAREER-RELATEDPROGRAMMECURRICULA

MichaelaHorvathova

CenterforCurriculumRedesign

27September2019

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Summary

Thispaperexamineshowthemainglobal trendswill transformtoday’sworkforceupuntil2030, and the skillsworkerswill have to acquire to adapt. Furthermore, it reports on thecurriculummappingandgapanalysisconductedtoidentifywhichskillsarecurrentlycoveredintheDPandCPprogrammesaswellasprovideanoverviewofeffectiveemployabilityskillsteachingandlearningmodels.Foranalysis,fourteenIBdocumentswerereviewedandtheoccurrenceofcompetencieswasidentifiedbasedon thedegreeofcompetencycontribution ineachdocumentanddividedinto:high,mediumorlowcontribution.Thecategorywhichreceivedthehighestcontributionis‘skills’sincecompetencieswithinthiscategoryarerepresentedthemostacrossall the IB’sCPandDPrevieweddocuments.Thecompetenciesthatreceivedhighcontributionwerecommunication,ethics,mindfulnessandcritical thinking. For example, communication is represented across twelve differentdocuments with large contribution, one document with medium contribution and onedocument with low contribution. On the other hand, the category of ‘character’ is lessrepresentedwithgapsincoverageofcertaincompetencies(e.g.,curiosity,resilience).Amongthe four least represented competencies were growth mindset, curiosity, courage andresilience.

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TableofContent

Summary……………………………..……………………………………………………………………………………………….1Introduction………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….3PartI.Globaltrendsandtheirimpactonthelabourmarket………………………………………………..5

1. DigitalDisruption:TheFutureofTechnologyandSkills…………………………………..51.1 Theimpactofcommunicationtechnologyonemployment……………………..51.2 JobAutomationandtheThreatofTechnologicalUnemployment…………….71.3 SkillsinanAgeofComputers…………………………………………………………………..121.4 NewandEmergingOccupations……………………………………………………………..19

2. MindtheGap:TheFutureofInequality…………………………………………………………212.1InequalityAmongthe99%.........................................................................21

2.2TheTop1%andtheLaborShareofIncome……………………………………………232.3InequalityandOpprtunity:TheImpactonSocialMobility……….…..…..……24

3. DemographicShifts:TheFutureofPopulations…………………………………………….253.1ADecliningPopulation:DividendorDeficit?..............................................253.2PopulationsandtheWorkforce…………………….……………….…………………….…28

4. UrbanizationandInnovation………………………………………………………………………..32PartII.SkillsdemandsaccordingtoO*NETandOECD…………………..………………………….…………36PartIII.TheCasefor21stCenturyEducation&Competencies……………………….…………………..423.1Knowledge…………………………………………………………………………………………………….423.2Skills………………………………………………………………………………………………………………433.3Character……………………………………………………………………………………………………...453.4Meta-learning……………………………………………………………………………………………….47PartIV.CurriculumContentMapping(CCM)andGapAnalysis……………….........…………………494.1Methods……………………………....…………………….…………………….………………………….494.2Results………………..…………………………………………………………..….………………………..514.2.1LargeContribution:TopfourCompetencies…..………………….……………………...534.2.2MediumContribution:MiddlefourCompetencies………..…….…………………….624.2.3LowContribution:BottomfourCompetencies………..…………….…………………..674.3Importantconsiderationsandrecommendations……………………………….……….70PartV.MainThemesacrossEmployabilitySkillsTeachingandLearningModels……….....…715.1TeachingandLearning:IncreasinglyStudent-Centered…………………………………715.2RecognitionofLearning:IncreasinglyIndividualized…………………………………..…735.3Pedagogy……………………………………………………………………………………………………...75Conclusion………………………………………..…………………………………………………………….………………….81

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Introduction

TheInternationalBaccalaureate(IB)OrganizationThe(IB)isanon-profiteducationalfoundation,motivatedbyitsmissiontodevelopinquiring,knowledgeableandcaringyoungpeoplewhohelpcreateabetterandmorepeacefulworldthroughinterculturalunderstandingandrespect.Theorganizationhasbuiltahard-earnedreputationforquality,highstandardsandpedagogicalleadershipinthefieldofinternationaleducation,encouragingstudentsacrosstheworldtobecomeengagedworldcitizenswhoareactive,compassionateandlifelonglearners.Founded in1968,the IBcurrentlyworkswithmorethan4,700schools in151countriestodevelop andoffer four programmes toover onemillion students aged3 to 19 years. Theorganization also provides professional development workshops for more than 75,000teachersandadministratorsannually.TheIBDiplomaProgramme(DP)TheDPisanacademicallychallengingandbalancedprogrammeforstudentsaged16-19.Itaimstodevelopstudentswho:1)haveexcellentbreadthanddepthofknowledge;2)flourishphysically,intellectually,emotionallyandethically;3)studyatleasttwolanguages;4)excelintraditional academic subjects; and 5) explore the nature of knowledge through theprogramme’suniquetheoryofknowledgecourse.TheDPcurriculumismadeupofsixsubjectgroups—Studiesinlanguageandliterature,Languageacquisition,Individualsandsocieties,Sciences,Mathematics,andThearts;andtheDPcore—Theoryofknowledge(TOK),ExtendedEssay(EE),andCreativity,Action,Service(CAS).Theprogrammeiscurrentlyofferedin3,000schoolsglobally.TheIBCareer-relatedProgramme(CP)TheCPisdesignedforstudentsaged16-19.TheCPisaframeworkofinternationaleducationthat incorporates the values of the IB into a unique programme addressing the needs ofstudents engaged in career-related education. The programme leads to further/highereducation, apprenticeships or employment. CP students undertake a minimum of two IBDiplomaProgramme(DP)courses,acoreconsistingoffourcomponentsandacareer-relatedstudy.ForCPstudents,DPcoursesprovidethetheoreticalunderpinningandacademicrigourof the programme; the career-related study further supports the programme’s academicstrength and provides practical, real-world approaches to learning; and the CP core helpsthem todevelop skills and competencies required for lifelong learning. Theprogramme iscurrentlyofferedin141schoolsin23countries.TheRationale

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Theglobaleconomyiscurrentlygoingthroughmorerapidchangethanatanyothertimesincethe Industrial Revolution.1 Technology’s exponential growth is rapidly compounding theproblems via automation and offshoring which are affecting the labour market. Thepolarizationoflabormarketshasmadeindustrialeconomiesmoreunequal,notjustintermsofoutcomes,buthasalso contributed togrowing inequalityofopportunity. Technologicalunemployment,despiteofitsunknownmagnitude,mightbeasignificantthreat.Meanwhile,aging populations and a shrinking labor force in the industrialworldwill put pressure onworkerstobecomemoreproductive,while increasingthedemandforhealthcareandtheretrainingofworkerslaterinlife.TheaimThe aim of this project is to explore how fit for purpose IB skills teaching is in preparinggraduatesforfutureemploymentandarapidlychangingworld.Toexecutethisvision,thestudywillaimtoanswerfollowingresearchquestionsasstatedbelow:

1. Whatdoeseducationresearchidentifyasthemostpertinentskillsthathighschoolgraduatesneedtobeeffectiveemployeesinthe21stcentury?Ø Provideanoverviewofglobaltrendsimpactingthelabourmarketandidentifya

setofrelevantskillsforemployment

2. WhichoftheseskillsareaddressedintheDPandCPcurriculaandrelateddocumentationandwhich,ifany,arelacking?Ø AnalysecurrentstructureoftheIB’sDPandCPcurriculumaswellasfeaturesofan

IBeducation,andidentifywhichskillsareaddressedandwhicharemissing

3. Whatareeffectivemodelsofbestpracticeemployabilityskillsteaching?HowdoIBDPandCPcurriculummodelsforemployment-relatedskilldevelopmentcomparewithbestpracticeemployabilityskillsteaching?Ø ReviewbestteachingpracticesofemployabilityskillsandcomparethemwithIB

DPandCPcurriculummodels.

Findingsfromthelatestandmostrelevantresearchinforesightstudies,laboureconomics,learning sciences, pedagogy, and development psychology and a literature review of therelevantliteratureonkeyskillsforemployment,andtheircorrespondingteachingpractices,haveinformedthisanalysis.ThestructureThepaper consists of fivemain parts. The first part offers a summaryof themain trendsimpactingthelabourmarketrangingfromdigitalization,throughinequalitytodemographicshifts.Inthesecondpart,thepaperprovidesanoverviewoftheskillsdemandsaccordingto

1Frey&Osborne(2015)TechnologyatWork:TheFutureofInnovationandEmployment,OxfordMartinProgrammeonTechnologyandEmployment

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theO*NETdatabase.Theseskillsandtheirimportanceareexplainedinthethirdpartofthispaper. The fourth part describes outcomes of the curriculum content mapping and gapanalysiswhichwasanexercisefocusedonreviewingthecharacteristicDPandCPcurriculumdocumentsand identifying theextent towhichemployabilityskillsare integrated in them.Lastly,themainthemesacrosseffectiveteachingofemployabilityskillsarediscussedinthefifthpartofthepaper.

PartI.Globaltrendsandtheirimpactonthelabourmarket1. DigitalDisruption:TheFutureofTechnologyandSkills1.1Theimpactofcommunicationtechnologyonemployment

FlexibilityUsingubiquitousbroadbandconnectionsandothertechnology,manyinteractionjobscanbeconcludedvirtually,whether fromtheroad, remoteofficesoraworker’shome.Thisgivesemployersunprecedentedflexibilityinhowtheyuselabourandtheycanchangewhereandwhen jobsarecarriedout.Managingemployeesandcontractworkersacrossthe Internet,companiesnowhavetheabilitytomakelabourmoreofavariablecost,ratherthanafixedone,byengagingworkersonanas-needed-basis.AcrosstheOECDcountries,part-timeandtemporaryemploymentamongprimeageworkershas risen1.5 to2 timesas fastas totalemploymentsince1990.Thereisarangeofnewintermediariesemergingtosupplyhigh-skilltalentforshort-termassignmentsandtotaplower-costpoolsoftalentinlesscostlylocations.OffshoringMigrationofjobsoverseasforthepurposeofloweringlabourcostsisanothertrendaffectingemployment.AccordingtoBlinder,movementofservicesectorfromtheUnitedStatesandotherrichcountriestoother(mostlypoorer)nationsislikelytobecomeamajoroneinthecomingdecades, likely tobereferredtoasanew industrial revolution.2Heestimates thatroughly25%ofallthejobsintheUnitedStatesarepotentiallyoffshorable,withmajorityintheservicesector jobs.Whilemigrationofmanufacturing jobs isacommonphenomenon,offshoring service sector jobs is a recent trend caused mainly by rapid advances incomputerized telecommunications technology (e.g., the Internet). In terms of empiricalfindings,offshorabilityappearstobeparticularlyprevalentinproductionworkandinofficeandadministrativejobs.Byindustrygroup,itismostcommoninmanufacturing,financeandinsurance,informationservices,andprofessionalandtechnicalservices.AsFigure1shows,moreeducatedworkersappeartoholdsomewhatmoreoffshorablejobs.3

2AlternativeMeasuresofOffshorability:ASurveyApproachbyAlanS.Blinder,PrincetonUniversityAlanB.Krueger,PrincetonUniversityCEPSWorkingPaperNo.190August20093AlternativeMeasuresofOffshorability:ASurveyApproachbyAlanS.Blinder,PrincetonUniversityAlanB.Krueger,PrincetonUniversityCEPSWorkingPaperNo.190August2009

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Figure1.OffshorabilitybyEducationalLevel

Thekeyattributetoconsiderwhileoffshoringisnotthelevelofskillrequiredforthejob,butwhethertheservicecanbedeliveredtoitsuserelectronicallyoverlongdistance.Thus,jobsthatcanbebrokendownintosimple,routinetasksareeasiertooffshorethanjobsrequiringcomplexthinking, judgementandhumaninteraction.Nevertheless,therearecomplexjobssuchasstatisticalanalysisorcomputerprogrammingrequiringhighlevelofskillsandhumanjudgement that can also be offshored. Hence, personal/impersonal distinction is morerelevanttotheoffshoringissuethanistheroutinenatureoftasks.TheshifttowardserviceoffshoringisapotentiallydramaticlabormarkettransformationandsinceICTkeepsgettingbetter and cheaper, the scope for offshoring is estimated to increase consistently. In asummary,low-skillroutinetypesofjobswithimpersonalofdeliveryaremostvulnerabletobeoffshoredandautomated.(Figure2).Figure2.Typesofjobsmostvulnerabletobeoffshoredandautomated

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1.2 JobAutomationandtheThreatofTechnologicalUnemployment

Technologists,economistsandhistorianshavewarnedoflarge-scaleunemployment,causedbyautomationfromArtificial Intelligence(AI)andotheremergingtechnologies.4However,there remains significant uncertainty regarding the real impact of technologicalunemployment. This section provides a review of the available evidence on technologicalunemployment.Current discussions of mass unemployment taking place exemplify the phenomenon oftechnological unemployment. John Maynard Keynes coined the term in 19305, defining‘technological unemployment’ as “unemployment due to our discovery of means ofeconomisingtheuseoflabouroutrunningthepaceatwhichwecanfindnewusesforlabour”.Contrarytomanyexistingpopularizationsoftheconcept,thissimpledefinitioncapturesbothpressures at play: the displacement of workers by technological means (“displacementeffect”),andtheabsenceofreplacementoftheseidleworkersinnoveloccupationsorjobs(absenceofa“productivityeffect”).Thesetwopressuresshapethecurrentresearchfield.Thisspecific issue isbrewingtoday inthecontextofAIandrobotics.Beingabletopredictwhetherandhowthedisplacementandproductivityeffectswilloffseteachotheristherefore 4ConcernaboutwidespreadunemploymenthasbeenraisedbyleadingAIresearchersincludingAndrewNg(Google,Baidu,Stanford)andStuartRussell(UCBerkeley),andleadingeconomistsincludingJosephStiglitz(Columbia),JasonFurman(Harvard),DaronAcemoglu,ErikBrynjolfssonandAndrewMcAfee(MIT),LauraTyson(UCBerkeley)RobertShiller(Yale),andmostrecentlyhistorianYuvalNoahHarari(HebrewUniversityofJerusalem)amongothers.5Keynes,J.M.1930.EconomicPossibilitiesforourGrandchildren,inKeynes,J.M.1931EssaysinPersuasion.London:MacMillan&Company

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a crucial question for policymakers and educational leaders. Several economists haveattemptedtoholisticallycapturetheimpactofautomationonthejobmarket.Acemoglu&Restrepo(2017)6usedalocallabourmarketapproachthatallowedthemtocaptureboththedisplacementandtheproductivityeffectsof industrial robots in theUSeconomybetween1990 and 2007. They found that for every one industrial robot per thousand workers,employmenttopopulationratiodecreasesby0.18-0.34percentagepointandwagesby0.25-0.50percentagepoints7.Additionally,theeffectonemploymentis1.5-2timeslargerformaleemploymentthanforfemaleemployment.Thenegativeemploymenteffectofrobotisationisalsoconcentratedonmanufacturingindustries,especiallytheseindustriesthatrelymoreonrobots.Lookingattheeffectperoccupation,theauthorsfindsubstantiallymorenegativeeffectsforroutinemanualoccupations, blue-collar workers, operators and assembly workers, and machinists andtransportworkers.Acrosslevelsofeducation,theyfindthatonlyworkerswithhigherthanuniversity level education are spared from the negativewage and employment effects ofrobotization.However,itisalsoimportanttonotethatnotallhighlyeducatedandskilledworkersareimpacted equally. A study done by the Institute for Fiscal Studies in the United Kingdomreportsonimpactofdegreesonearly-careerearningsonceaccountedfordifferencesinpre-universitycharacteristics.Notalldegreesarethesame,andsubjectchoiceappearstobeaveryimportantdeterminantofreturns.Formen,studyingcreativearts,Englishorphilosophyresults in lower earnings on average at age 29 than people with similar backgroundcharacteristicswhodidnotgotohighereducationinstitutionsatall.Thestudyestimatedtheaverageimpactofattendinghighereducationonearningatage29tobe26%forwomenand6%formen.8Formen,thereare12institutions(accountingfor4%ofmalestudents)forwhichweestimatestatisticallysignificantlynegativereturnsatage29onaverage,whilethereare18universitieswithaveragepositive?returnsofmorethan20%.9McKinseyGlobalInstitute(MGI)offersoneofthemostauthoritativeassessmentsofthescaleof the potential displacement effect10. MGI estimated the automation potential acrossindustries and shows that accommodation and food services are the most vulnerable toautomation,with 73% of time spent by this sector’sworkers spent on automatable tasksacrosstheUnitedStates.Manufacturingcomessecondwith60%,Agricultureisthirdwith58%andTransportationandwarehousing comes closebehind,with57%.Other industries thathaveautomationpotentialofbetween40and57%includeretailtrade,mining,othernon-classified services, construction, utilities, wholesale trade, finance and insurance, art &

6Acemoglu,D.,&Restrepo,P.2017.RobotsandJobs:EvidencefromUSLaborMarkets.NBERWorkingPaper232857Itisimportanttonotethatover1990-2007,therehasbeen±1additionalrobotperthousandworkersintheUS8UKReportMeasuresValue-AddofDegreesonEarlyCareerEarnings;InstituteforFiscalStudiesreportonimpactofdegreesonearlycareerearningsafteraccountingforindividuals’pre-universitycharacteristics.9UKReportMeasuresValue-AddofDegreesonEarlyCareerEarnings;InstituteforFiscalStudiesreportonimpactofdegreesonearlycareerearningsafteraccountingforindividuals’pre-universitycharacteristics.10McKinseyGlobalInstitute2017.AFuturethatWorks:Automation,EmploymentandProductivity

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entertainment, and real estate. The global heatmap (cf. figure 3) shows there is someheterogeneityacrosscountriesintermsofvulnerabilitytoautomation.Figure 3: Employee weighted overall % of activities that can be automated by adaptingcurrentlydemonstratedtechnologies

Source:McKinseyGlobalInstituteFortheUS,Frey&Osborne(2013)estimated47%ofjobstobeautomatable,Chuietal.(2017)found that 49% of the jobs in United Arab Emirates are susceptible to be automated11.However,theOECDusedamorerefinedmethodology,leveragingtask-leveldatainsteadofjob-leveldata toshowmuchsmallermagnitudes for thedisplacementeffect:overall, theyestimate9%of jobs inOECDcountriesareautomatable12.Ratherthanrelyingonthetask-levelmethodology,estimatesrelyingonjob-leveldatatendtooverestimatethepotentialjobdisplacementeffects.Usingasimilarmethodology,Dauthetal.(2017)13findthatforGermanybetween1994and2014, thedisplacementeffectof industrial robotshasbeenfullyoffsetbytheproductivityeffect in the aggregate. Using extensive longitudinalmicrodata, the authors find that thedisplacementtakesplacenotbyfiringworkers,butbynotreplacingworkerswhoretire.Theyalsofindthathighlyskilledworkers(inmanagerialandscientificroles)tendtoenjoywagegrowth,whilemediumskilledworkers(doingroutineandmanualtasks)arefullyhitbywagecuts.Anotherimportantfacttomentionisthatthethreatoflaborshortagesismoreacuteinblue-collar and low-pay services occupations than in more highly educated white-collar

11Chui,M.,J.Manyika,andM.Miremadi2017.TheCountriesMost(andLeast)LikelytobeAffectedbyAutomation.HarvardBusinessReview12Arntz,M.,T.GregoryandU.Zierahn2016.TheRiskofAutomationforJobsinOECDCountries:AComparativeAnalysis.OECDSocial,EmploymentandMigrationWorkingPapers,No.189,OECDPublishing,Paris.13Dauth,W.,Findeisen,S.,Südekum,J.andWößner,N.2017.Germanrobots:Theimpactofindustrialrobotsonworkers.CEPRDiscussionPaperNo.DP12306

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occupations,theexactoppositeoftheprevailingtrendsinrecentdecades.Itisexpectedthatbytheendof2019,thelabormarketwillbehistoricallytight.14Industriesthatemploylargeshares of blue-collar workers, such as agriculture, mining, utilities, construction,manufacturing,transportation,accommodationandfoodservices,repair,maintenance,andpersonalcareservices,arestronglyaffectedbyrisingwagesandshrinkingsupply.Whilethelabor white-collar market is also tight, wage growth for the 40 percent of workers inmanagement, professional, and relatedoccupations is slow to accelerate. Sales andofficeworkers, most of whom do not have a bachelor’s degree, are in shorter supply thanmanagementandprofessionalworkers.Threatsofautomationhavebeenhypedupshort-termbutarestillaconcernlong-term.Thereisalsoawidegeographicvariationinpotentialforautomation.InASEAN,forexample,theILOestimatesthat70%ofjobsinVietnamareat‘highrisk’ofautomationfromtechnology,comparedto44%inThailand.Thedifferencesdependontheprevalenceoflowskillorroutinework in employment. Jobs at high risk include shop and salespersons, office clerks, foodservice,andsewingmachineoperators.Jobswithlowerrisksofautomationincludegeneralmanagers,teachers,housebuildersandhandicraftworkers.Moreover,therearegenderanddemographic differences in potential for automation. The ILO report finds that women,immigrants,andworkerswithlesseducationaremorevulnerabletoautomation.Thisisduetohigherconcentrationsofthesegroupsinlow-skilled,routineworkinASEANregions.Lastly,itisnotablethattheILOmethodologyreplicatestheFrey&Osbornemethodwhichconsidersautomationofwholejobsratherthantasks.15However,theseestimatesdonotaccountforseveralrelevantfactors.Importantlytherelativecostofcapitaloverthecostoflabourwillbeakeystabilisationmechanism:asworkersinacertainindustryarereplacedbyrobots,therewillbeadownwardpressureonwageswhichwillslowdownfurtherdisplacementasitnowbecomesmoreadvantageoustoemployerstoturntocheaperlaborratherthanAI-empoweredtools.ThiseffecthasbeennotedbyDauthetal.(2017)inGermany’srobotisation.Moreover,therearefrictionsintechnologyadoptionwithinfirmsandtheeconomy,suchasknowledgegapsandregulatoryuncertainty.16Fewlegislativeframeworksworldwidehaveyetbeen updated to account for the rise of AI-empowered technologies. These legislativeframeworkswillbekeytodeterminetheeconomicincentivestoautomateproductionusingAI.While there is very active research on this topic, both main avenues to investigate thisphenomenonarecurrentlyinsufficientforpolicymaking.Meanwhile,ascomputingpowerandavailability of data grow geometrically,17 and top young minds head to high-paying andprestigiousjobsinAI,thefieldwilldeveloprapidlyandthethresholdforwhichtasksandjobs

14GadLevanon,Ph.D.,FrankSteemers2018.Blue-CollarWorkerShortages:NavigatingaBusinessEnvironmentofHigherLaborCosts,TheConferenceBoard. 15ILO,2016.ASEANinTransformation-theFutureofjobsatriskofautomation16McKinseyGlobalInstitute2017.AFuturethatWorks.Also:CapgeminiDigitalTransformationInstitute,2017.StateofAIsurvey.17Singularity.com,ExponentialGrowthofComputing,1900-2100.http://www.singularity.com/charts/page70.html

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are‘automatable’willfall.Whether,withAI,“thistimeisdifferent”,isyettobedetermined.Weareonlyleftwithuntestableargumentsonbothsidesofthedebate.“No,thistimeisnotdifferent”ThosesayingthatthisAIrevolutionwillnotleadtomajorunemploymentgenerallyarguethatpasttechnologicaladvancementdidnotleadtolong-termunemployment.Forexample,MITEconomistDavidAutorarguesthathumanshaveinherentlynon-automatableskills,suchasinterpersonal care, and that consumers’ insatiable demand for products will create newproductsandindustries.18Skepticsoftechnologicalunemploymentalsoarguethattechnologywill create new jobs, like socialmedia bloggers today i.e. that the productivity effect hasalways dominated. Additionally, we are notoriously bad at predicting how technologydevelops - so the claims that future technologieswill lead tomassive unemployment aredubiousbecausetheysaidtechnologycouldfailtomaterializeitself.Theseclaimsalsoalludeto the possibility of another AI winter, when the hype fades away. TheWorld EconomicForum’srecentreportonthefutureofemploymentshowsthatemergenceofnewjobsishardtopredictasitidentifiedthetoptenjobsthatdidnotexistadecadeago(figure4).19Figure4.Emergenceofnewjobs

“Yes,thistimeisdifferent”

18DavidAutor2016.Whytherearestillsomanyjobs.TEDxCambridgehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LCxcnUrokJo.19TheFutureofJobsReport2018,CentrefortheNewEconomyandSociety,WorldEconomicForum,February2018

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ThosewhopredictmasstechnologicalunemploymentpointoutthatAIwillautomate jobsrequiring intelligence,contrary topast technologicaldevelopment.Theyposit thatAI isanalternativetotheverynotionofwhatmakeshumansdifferentfromotherspecies,thatisourcognitive abilities to think, reason, communicate and change. They also argue that thecreationofnewjobstoabsorbthedisplacedworkersisnotsupportedbyevidence.AccordingtoastudyusingdatafromtheUSBureauofLaborStatistics,80%ofoccupationspresentin2014alreadyexisted in1914.Moreover,90%ofemployees in2014worked inthesesameoccupations.20InaseparatestudyconductedbyPwCintheUK,only6%ofjobstodaydidnotexistin1900.21Whileautonomousvehiclesthreatentoreplacemillionsofdrivers,Amazonswapsouthumansforrobotsinwarehouseandretailjobs.22AIalsoautomateshigh-skilledwork,including‘legaldiscovery’ in law firms, medical diagnostics, finance operations, and even creative tasksincludingmusiccomposition.Arguably,withincreasinglyexpandingcapabilitiesofAI,theremaybeno“non-automatableskills”remaininginthenearfuture.Theexpertspredictingmasstechnologicalunemploymentalsoclaimthatsofar,statementsabouttechnologyfailingtodosomething,suchasAIbeatinghumansatchessorGohavebeenprovenuntrue.All in all, none of the arguments on either side can easily be disregarded without moreevidence. An additional layer of complexity arises because theremay be domains wherehumans or human-machine teams retain employment. Recent findings23 have shown thatalgorithmshelpedbyhumaninsightssometimesperformbetterthanalgorithmsleftontheirown.Thismeansthatsomeaspectsofthetechnologyareactuallycomplementaryandthattheincentivestofireandhirelabourwillshiftinevenmorecomplicatedwaysthanmodelscurrently account for. Taken altogether, this shows how complex itwill be to predict thetechnologicalunemploymentgeneratedbyAI.Tosummarize,therearefourtangledpossibilities:

• Outrightsubstitution(occupation-level)• Partialsubstitution(task-level)• Partialaugmentation(task-level)• Newoccupations

Thisuncertaintyleadstoonecertainty:wemustbevigilantwhenitmaycometothereductionofhumanautonomyduetothedeploymentofAIandweshouldbefocusingmuchmoreenergyonthequalityofjobsandthemeaningofhumanactivityingeneral.24

20U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics.https://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat11.htm.OriginallyretrievedfromChace,C.2016.TheEconomicSingularity:Artificialintelligenceandthedeathofcapitalism.ThreeCsKindleEdition.21FinancialTimes,2015.DigitalEconomyTransformsUKworkforce.https://www.ft.com/content/5ac2e590-c741-11e4-9e34-00144feab7de22Quartz.2017.Thereare170,000fewerretailjobsin2017—and75,000moreAmazonrobots.https://qz.com/1107112/there-are-170000-fewer-retail-jobs-in-2017-and-75000-more-amazon-robots/23NVIDIA.2016.DeepLearningDropsErrorRateforBreastCancerDiagnosesby85%.24Hvarda,M.2019,DiscussionontheGlobalGovernanceofArtificialIntelligenceattheWorldGovernmentSummit.

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1.3 SkillsinanAgeofComputers

Overrecentdecades,computer-controlledequipmenthasreplacedworkersinawiderangeofjobsthatconsistsofroutinework—thatis,tasksthatfollowwell-definedproceduresthatcaneasilybeexpressedincomputercode.AsshowninFigure5,mostroutineworksuchasrepetitive calculating, typing or sorting, as well as production tasks that revolve aroundperformingrepetitivemotions,havebeenautomatedawaysincetheearly1980s.Atthesametime,startinginthelate1970s,thedemandfornon-routineinterpersonalandanalyticalskillsincreaseddramatically. Theexplanation is straightforward:as computer technologieshavedisplacedlaborinroutinetasks,theyhavealsocreatednewemploymentopportunitiesforworkerswithnon-routinesocialandcognitiveabilities.

Figure5.Thetaskcontentofemployment

Source:Autor,LevyandMurnane(2013)The scope of automation has however recently expanded and will inevitably continue toexpand.By turningcomplex tasks intowell-definedproblems,many tasks thatweused tocharacterizeasnon-routinearetodayautomatable.Adecadeago,forexample,FrankLevyandRichardMurnanepredictedthatmimickingthesubtletiesofhumanperception—athennon-routinetask—wouldbenearly impossible,sothatacomputerwouldneverbeabletonavigateacarwithouthumaninput.25Yetin2011,GoogleprovedthefeasibilityofautomatedvehiclesandtodaymajorcarmanufacturerssuchasGeneralMotors(GM)andToyotahavebuiltnear-autonomousvehiclesthatarestillimprovingbytheday. 25Levy,F.andMurnane,R.J.(2004).Thenewdivisionoflabor:Howcomputersarecreatingthenextjobmarket.PrincetonUniversityPress.

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Thisisnotanisolatedexample.Inawiderangeofindustries,technologicalbreakthroughsarealreadypervasivelytransforminglabormarkets.TaketheexampleofhealthcarewhereIBM’sWatsoncomputerhasbeenretrainedasadoctor.Withaccesstotwomillionpagesoftextfrommedical journals, 600,000medical evidence reports and1.5million clinical trials andpatientrecords,Watsoncanreferenceapatient’ssymptomsagainsthergeneticsandmedicalhistory to identify the treatmentwith thehighestprobabilityof success.26Following thesedevelopments,acomputerwasrecentlyabletoidentifypotentialdrugcandidatesandidentifythosethatpotentiallycantreatdiseases.27Furthermore,whileahumanchemistcanscreensome10-20chemicalsinayear,acomputercanscreen10,000inasingleday.Advances inadditivemanufacturing,biotechandnanotechnologywillsimilarlytransformawide range of processes in development, design and production.Meanwhile, commercialservice robots are becoming better at performing complex tasks in commercial cleaning,health care and food preparation, and are already able to perform simpler householdservices.28Manyworkersinadministrativeandofficesupportoccupationswillalsobemaderedundant as algorithms become more efficient at handling tasks that revolve aroundaccessingorstoringinformation.Finally,awiderangeofjobsintransportationandlogisticsareatrisk,reflectingthedevelopmentofautonomousvehiclesandcheapersensors.Takentogether,suchadvanceswillprofoundlyaffectthedemandforskillsby2030.Thecriticalquestionistherefore:whattypeofskillswillstillbeindemandby2030?Thestudyconducted by Frey & Osborne29 sheds some light on this. Workers in jobs that requireoriginality—thatis,“theabilitytocomeupwithunusualorcleverideasaboutagiventopicorsituation,ortodevelopcreativewaystosolveaproblem”—aresubstantiallylesslikelytoseethemselvesreplacedbycomputer-controlledequipment,reflectingthecurrentlimitationsofautomation(Figure6a).ArtDirectors,FashionDesignersandMicrobiologistsarethusunlikelytobeoutofworksoon.Furthermore,althoughawiderangeoflow-skillproduction,salesandservicejobsarelikelytobedisplaced,somerelativelysimpletasks,suchasassistingandcaringforothers,areunlikelytobeautomated(Figure6c),whileworkersthatperformtasksthatrequiremanualdexterity,suchasironandsteelworkersoraircraftmechanics,aremorelikelyto be displaced (Figure 6b). In other words, although computers are making inroads todomainspreviouslyconfinedtohumanworkers,theyareunlikelytoreplacejobsthatrequirecomplex social interactions, such as persuasion and negotiation, as well as creative workinvolvingthecreationofnewideasandknowledgeofhumanheuristics.Thus,inordertoadapttorecenttrendsintechnologyworkerswillhavetoacquirecreativeandsocialskills.

26Nusca,A.(2013).‘Afterayearofmedicalschool,IBM'sWatsonpassesfirstmilestone’.BigDataAnalytics,8February2013.https://www.zdnet.com/article/after-a-year-of-medical-school-ibms-watson-passes-first-milestone/ 27Williams(2015).Williams,D.(2015)‘RobotScientisttoDiscoverDrugsDramaticallyFaster’.Web&Techs,4February2015.http://webandtechs.com/2015/02/robot-scientist-to-discover-drugs-dramatically-faster-1/)28Robotics-VO(2013).ARoadmapforUSRobotics.FromInternettoRobotics.2013Edition.RoboticsintheUnitedStatesofAmerica.Cohn,J.(2013).Therobotwillseeyounow.TheAtlantic,February20.29Frey,C.B.&Osborne,M.(2013)TheFutureofEmployment:HowSusceptibleareJobstoComputerisation?OxfordMartinSchoolWorkingPaper.

15

Figure6.Whattasksaresusceptibletocomputerisation?

Source:Frey&Osborne(2013)

AnotherstudydonebyFoundationforYoungAustralians(FYA)touncovertheclustersofworkinAustralia,analysed4,600uniqueskillsrequestedbyemployersacross2.7milliononlinejobadvertisements.30Usingaclusteringalgorithm,over1,000occupationsweregroupedbasedonwhether employers demanded similar skills from candidates. For example, The Carersclusterofworkcomprises jobsthatseekto improvethementalorphysicalhealthorwell-beingofothers,includingmedical,careandpersonalsupportservices.The131occupationscurrentlyinthisjobclusterincludeGPs,socialworkers,childcareworkers,fitnessinstructors,surgeons, counsellors and beauty therapists. The algorithm groups these occupationstogetherintooneclusterbasedontheircommonskillsincludingboththetoptechnicalskills(likecomputer-aideddrafting,accountancy,orcasemanagement)andthetopenterpriseskills(like problem solving, communications, and project management). The 7 job clusters inAustralia’s workforce (Figure 7) are: ‘The Generators’, ‘The Artisans’, ‘The Carers’, ‘TheCoordinators’,‘TheDesigners’,‘TheInformers’and‘TheTechnologists’.

30TheNewWorkMindset,7newjobclusterstohelpyoungpeoplenavigatethenewworkorder,FYA,2016

(a) Originality (b) Manual dexterity (c) Assisting and caring for others

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Figure7.MainjobclustersinAustralia’sworkforce

Whiletherearesomeenterpriseskills31thatarecommonlysoughtacrossthesejobclusters,suchas communication skills,writing, trainingothers, digital literacy andproblem solving,employersindifferentclustersofworkdemandsomeenterpriseskillsmoreoftenthanothers.For example, The Artisans job cluster focuses primarily on the capacity to train others,problemsolveandmanagetime,whereasTheInformersjobclusterrequestsskillsrelatedtowriting,problemsolving,research,creativityandteamwork.Currently,theenterpriseskillsmostdemandedbyjobclusteraresummarisedinFigure8.

31 Enterprise skills are transferable skills that enable young people to engage with a complex world and navigate thechallengestheywillinherit.Enterpriseskillsarenotjustforentrepreneurs;theyareskillsthatarerequiredinmanyjobs.Theyhavebeenfoundtobeapowerfulpredictorof long-termjobsuccess.Thetermsusedtodescribetheseskillsvaryacrossdifferentcontexts:sometimescalledgeneric,soft,or21stcenturyskills.

17

Figure8.Whatenterpriseskillsaremostcommonlydemandedbyemployers?

Source:CenterfortheFutureofWork(2017)Interestingly,digitalliteracyisdemandedacrossmostjobclusters,asitisacoretransferableskillbutdemandingtechnicalskillsrelatedtobuildinginformationtechnologyformpartoftheTechnologistsjobcluster.Therefore,acquiringandmaintainingaportfolioofdigitalskillswillbecomegradually important for the vastmajority ofworkers (Figure 9). A crucial task forgovernmentsacross theOECD is thereforetomeet thegrowingdemandfordigitalor ICT-relatedskills.SincetheITrevolutionofthe1990s,mostOECDcountrieshavewitnessedtheshareofICTemploymentincrease,withsomeexceptions,includingAustria,IrelandandtheUS.32PredictionsbytheOECDfurthersuggestthatemploymentinICTindustrieswillcontinueto increase as advances in ‘smart-grid’ technology reshapes the management of energysystems, infrastructure and transportation.33 According to the European Commission, thedemandforworkerswithspecialistdigitalskillsisalreadygrowingbyabout4%eachyear.34

32OECD(2015a)KeyICTIndicators.http://www.oecd.org/internet/broadband/oecdkeyictindicators.htm33OECD(2013b)‘SkillsfortheDigitalEconomy’.OECDSkillsStrategySpotlightNo.4.http://skills.oecd.org/developskills/documents/skillsforthedigitaleconomy.html34EuropeanCommission (2014).Digital InclusionandSkill,DigitalAgendaScoreboard2014.https://ec.europa.eu/digital-

agenda/en/news/scoreboard-2014-digital-inclusion-and-skills-eu-2014

18

Figure9.Digitaltechnologyisbecomingincreasinglycommonintheworkplace

Source:OECD,2013Whilethedemandfordigitalskillsisprojectedtoincreaseby2030,therearesignsthattherewillbeashortageofsuchskills.AccordingtoarecentCapgeminisurveyasmanyas77%offirmsconsiderthelackofdigitalskillsabarriertotheirdigitaltransformation,andby2020theremaybeasmuchas900,000vacanciesinICTjobsaccordingtoestimatesbytheEuropeanCommission.35 Globally, according to themost recentManpower Talent Shortage Survey,specialistICTworkers—particularlyprogrammersanddevelopers—aresomeofthehardestjobstofindsuitableemployeesfor.36Atthesametime,however,manyOECDcountrieshaveseentheshareofgraduatesinscience,technology, engineering andmathematics (STEM) fields stagnate or decline. Although ICTindustriesemployathirdofallbusinesssectorresearchers,lessthan3%oftertiarygraduatesareinthefieldofcomputersciences.37In2013,morethan60%ofEuropeanworkersreportedthat theirdigital skillswere insufficient toapply foranew job.38Anon-negligible shareofworkersevenlackthemostbasicdigitalskills:4.9%ofworkersintheOECD’sSurveyofAdultSkills failed toperformfundamental taskssuchasscrolling throughawebpageorusingamouse,althoughtherearesubstantialcross-countrydifferences(Figure10).

35Campgemini(2014).TheDigitalTalentGap.CapgeminiConsulting.36Manpower(2014).ManpowerTalentShortageSurvey.37OECD(2014a),MeasuringtheDigitalEconomy:ANewPerspective,OECDPublishing.38OECD(2014a),MeasuringtheDigitalEconomy:ANewPerspective,OECDPublishing.

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Figure10.Digitalskillsvarywidelyacrosscountries

Source:OECD(2013)Forworkerswithout thesebasicdigital skills, suchas theability tousestandardcomputersoftware,navigatetheinternetandconductbasicprogramming,itwillbedifficulttoadapttotherapidpaceofchange.Overthepastthreeyears,about30%ofworkersintheOECDreportthatnewprocessesortechnologieswereintroducedattheirworkplaces.39Astheworkplacecontinues toundergo substantial restructuring in response tonew technologies becomingavailable,manyskillswillrapidlybecomeoutdated.Thus, to remain competitive,workerswill constantly need to acquire new skills, requiringflexibility, an attitude towards life-long and life-wide learning, and curiosity. Modularapproachestoeducationthatallowworkerstoconstantlyupdatetheirdigitalskillsportfoliowillbecrucialtomeettherisingdemandby2030.Atthesametime,workerswoulddowellinnotacquiringtoonarrowskillsetsthatwilleventuallybecomeobsolete.WhileICTspecialistswill be needed, a combination of skillsets that make workers adaptable to technologicalchangewillbeevenmoreimportant.Theeducationaleffortsshouldfocusonfusionskills—thatis,thecombinationofcreative,entrepreneurialandtechnicalskills—allowingworkerstoshiftintonewoccupationsastheyemerge.1.4 NewandEmergingOccupationsA central concern is whether new job creation will be sufficient to replace the manyemploymentopportunitiesthathaverecentlydisappeared.ICTemploymentintheOECD,for

39OECD(2013a)OECDSkillsOutlook2013,FirstResultsfromtheSurveyofAdultSkills,Paris:OECD,2013.

20

example,hasyettorecovertoits2001peakof4.1%oftotalemployment.40Althoughhigh-techemploymenthasgrownandspreadacrossEuropeoverthepastdecade,onlyabout10%ofworkersintheEU-27areemployedinhigh-techindustries.41Job creation in new occupations and industries has been even sparser: according to ourestimatesabout0.5%ofUSworkersareemployedintechindustriesthathavebeencreatedsincetheturnofthecentury.42WhileKodakforexampleemployedsome145,000workersatits peak, withmanymore employed indirectly as subcontractors and retailers; Instagramemployed15peoplein2010andwasacquiredbyFacebookfor$1billiontwoyearslater.Oneexplanationforthesluggishrateofjobcreationisthelowinvestmentdemandassociatedwithtechstart-ups:inthedigitaleconomyonlyfewworkersareneededtobuildupthecapitalthatallowscompaniestoreachglobalmarkets.43Nevertheless,computertechnologieshavecreatedawiderangeofnewoccupationsinthepast.FollowingtheComputerRevolutionofthe1980s,about1,500newjobtitlesappearedinthe US labor market, many resulting directly from new technologies: jobs such as webdesigners,databaseadministratorsandsoftwareengineers,forexample,werecreatedasadirectresultoftheintroductionanddiffusionofthepersonalcomputerandtheWorldWideWeb.44Morerecently,severalnewjobtitleshavealsoemergedasaresultofadvances innanotechnology, medicine and robotics (figure 11). Furthermore, advances in greentechnologyhave increasedthedemandforchemicalengineers,electriciansandzoologists,andcreatedarangeofentirelynewoccupations.

40OECD(2014a),MeasuringtheDigitalEconomy:ANewPerspective,OECDPublishing.41Goos,Maarten,AlanManning,andAnnaSalomons.(2014).“ExplainingJobPolarization:Routine-BiasedTechnologicalChangeandOffshoring.”AmericanEconomicReview,104(8),2509–2526.42Berger,T.,andFrey,C.B.(2014a)TechnologyShocksandUrbanEvolutions:DidtheComputerRevolutionShifttheFortunesofU.S.Cities?.OxfordMartinSchoolWorkingPaper.43Frey,C.B.(2015a).TheEndofEconomicGrowth?HowtheDigitalEconomyCouldLeadtoSecularStagnationScientificAmerican,Vol.312,No.1.44Lin,J.(2011).TechnologicalAdaptation,Cities,andNewWork.ReviewofEconomicsandStatistics,93(2),554–574.

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Figure11.ExamplesofNewandEmergingJobs

Source:O*NET(http://www.onetonline.org/find/bright?b=3&g=Go)Thus,mostnewjobshaveonethingincommon:theyaresubstantiallymoreskilledthanjobsofthepast.Whilethisisatrendthathasbeengoingonforseveraldecades,manynewjobsnoweven require an advanced degree.45 AmongBiostatisticians, for example, 48%of theworkers surveyed responded that their job required at least a doctoral degree. Moreimportantly,manyofthesejobsrequireacombinationoftechnicalknowledgecoupledwithskillsandcharacterqualities.CoreworkactivitiesforaRoboticsEngineer,forexample,includeresearchanddesigncoupledwithtwocentralskill requirementswhicharecritical thinkingandcomplexproblemsolving.2.MindtheGap:TheFutureofInequality2.1InequalityAmongthe99%Intandemwithrapidtechnologicalprogress,mostOECDcountrieshaveexperiencedariseinincomeinequality.46Inparticular,asthepriceofcomputinghasfallen,problem-solvingskills—where college educated workers have a comparative advantage—have become relativelymoreproductive,explainingthegrowingreturntoeducation.Although skill-biased technological change can explain the growing demand for educatedworkers, it is silent on an important feature of most labor markets in the OECD: job

45Berger&Frey(2014a).Inaddition,studieshaveshownthatalmosttheentireincreaseinthereturntoeducationreflectanincreaseinreturnstocognitiveskills(Ingram&Neuman2006).46Acemoglu,D.(2002).Technicalchange,inequality,andthelabormarket.JournalofEconomicLiterature,vol.40,no.1,pp.7–72.Goldin,C.andKatz,L.F.(2009).Theracebetweeneducationandtechnology.HarvardUniversityPress.

Occupation Description Examples of Skills Example of Knowledge Example of Character

Robotics Engineers Research, design, develop, or test robotic applications.

Critical Thinking; Complex Problem Solving; Quality Control Analysis.

Engineering and Technology; Robotics;

Design.

Exploration; precision;

observation.

Biostatisticians Develop and apply biostatistical

theory and methods to the study of life sciences.

Inductive Reasoning; Oral Expression;

Mathematical Reasoning.

Mathematics; English Language; Education

and Training.

Project/program management;

execution; inquisitiveness.

Fuel Cell Engineers Design, evaluate, modify, or

construct fuel cell components or systems for transportation, stationary, or portable applications.

Judgment and Decision Making; Writing; Critical

Thinking.

Physics; Mathematics; Chemistry.

Focus; reliability; feedback.

Solar Sales Representatives and Assessors

Contact new or existing customers to determine their solar equipment needs, suggest systems or equipment, or estimate costs.

Active Listening; Persuasion; Social

Perceptiveness.

Sales and Marketing; Engineering and

Technology; Customer and Personal Service.

Accountability; focus; results-

orientation.

Video Game Designers

Design core features of video games. Specify innovative game and role-play mechanics, story lines, and character biographies. Create and maintain design documentation. Guide and collaborate with production staff to produce games as designed.

Programming; Critical Thinking; Complex Problem

Solving.

Design; Communications and Media; Psychology.

Inquisitiveness; playfulness; passion.

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polarization. As has been persuasively shown by Autor et al. (2003), however, computertechnologieshavealsodisplacedworkers inawide rangeof routinework, includingmanyclerking andmanufacturing jobs—work that is typically concentratedat themiddleof theincomedistribution.Accompaniedwithemploymentgrowthbothatthetopandbottomofthe skill and income distribution, the automation of routine work has contributed to ahollowing-outof labormarketsacrossthe industrialworld.47Theshareofhoursworked inmiddle-incomeoccupationshasdeclinedinall16Europeancountriesbetween1993and2010,whilejobsatthetopandbottomofthewagedistributionhaveexperiencedrapidemploymentgrowth. Furthermore, studies of the US, Japan and Europe show that industries thatimplementedICTalsoshiftedthedemandfrommiddle-educatedworkerstoskilledworkers,withtechnologyaccountingforaboutaquarteroftheseshifts.48Figure12.Low-incomejobsaremorelikelytobecomputerised

Source:Frey&Osborne(2013)The future of income inequality will thus largely be determined by the direction oftechnologicalchange.Aslow-incomeandlow-skillworkersarenowforthefirsttimeatriskofautomation(Figure12),whilenewandemergingoccupationsarelargelyconfinedtoskilledworkers,therecentsurgeininequalityislikelytofurtherbeexacerbated.Toavoidsuchanoutcome,governmentswillneedtomanagethereallocationofworkersfromexisting low-andmiddle-skilled jobs to relatively skilled emerging occupations. Unless investments aremadeintoskillsdevelopmenttoallowworkerstoshiftintonewemploymentopportunities,

47Autor,D.,Levy,F.,andMurnane,R.J.(2003).Theskillcontentofrecenttechnologicalchange:Anempiricalexploration.TheQuarterlyJournalofEconomics,118(4),1279–1333.;Goos,M.andManning,A.(2007).Lousyandlovelyjobs:TherisingpolarizationofworkinBritain.TheReviewofEconomicsandStatistics,vol.89,no.1,pp.118–133.48Michaels,Guy,AshwiniNatraj,andJohnVanReenen.2014.“HasICTPolarizedSkillDemand?EvidencefromElevenCountriesoverTwenty-FiveYears.”ReviewofEconomicsandStatistics96(1):60–77.

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income inequality among the 99% is likely to continue to increase through 2030, as anincreasingscopeoflow-skilledjobsareatriskofbeingdisplaced.2.2TheTop1%andtheLaborShareofIncomeThetop1%hasbecomethethemeofthe21stcentury.49Whilethefirsthalfofthe20thcenturywitnessed a sharp decline in the share of GDP accruing to the top 1%, the convergencebetweenthetop1%andthe99%cametoahaltduringthe1950s.Morerecently,thisprocessreversed with an increasing fraction of incomes accruing to the top 1%. In virtually allcountries, the top 1% income share has increased dramatically since the early 1980s,coincidingwiththeliberalizationoffinancialmarkets,adeclineinmarginaltaxrates,aswellasthedawnofthecomputerrevolution.Thistrendhasbeenthemostpronouncedbetweenthelate1970sand2012intheUnitedStateswhenthetoppercentileofUShouseholdsmorethandoubledtheirshareofnationalincomefrom10.0%to22.5%.50While the impactof technologyon inequalityamongthe99% isevident, the linkbetweentechnologyandtheconcentrationof incomeamongthe1%is lessclear.Acommonlyheldview, however, is that globalization and technological advances together have created a‘winner-take-all’ economy, where reduced barriers to trade and an increasingly digitizedeconomyallowleadingfirmsandentrepreneurstocapturetheentiremarket.Forexample,ashasbeenpointedoutbyBrynjolfssonetal.(2014):“digitalcopiescanbemadeatvirtuallyzerocostandtransmittedanywhereintheworldalmostinstantaneously,eachanexactreplicaof the original.” This feature of the digital economy allows companies like Twitch, a livestreamingvideoplatform,toemploysome170workers,whileservingtheworldmarket.Atthesametime,agrowingbodyofworkhaspointedatdigitaltechnologiesasakeydriverbehindthedeclininglaborshareofGDPacrosstheindustrialworld.51Crucially,ascompaniesarebecoming increasingly automated, gains in productivity havenot translated intowagegrowth,buthaveshiftedincomesfromlabortoownersofcapital.Accordingtoarecentstudy,42outofthe59countriesexaminedexperiencedadeclineintheshareofGDPaccruingtolaboroverrecentdecades,mainlyasaresultofcheapertechnologiesbecomingavailable52.EstimatesbytheOECDevensuggestabout80%ofthedropinthelaborshareisaccountedforbyreductionsinthepriceofcomputerizedequipmentandrobots,creatingincentivesforfirmstoreplaceworkerswithmachines.53

49Piketty(2014).CapitalintheTwenty-FirstCentury.TranslatedbyArthurGoldhammer.50Autor,D.H.(2014),Skills,education,andtheriseofearningsinequalityamongthe“other99percent”Science23May2014:Vol.344no.6186pp.843-85151Furthermore,between2000and2011,revenuesofinternetfirmsintheOECDgrewby30%;whileemploymentexpandedby15%(OECD,2013b).52Karabarbounis,L.andNeiman,B.(2013).TheGlobalDeclineoftheLaborShare,NBERWorkingPapers19136,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc53TheEconomist(2013).LaborPains.Oct31st2013.http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21588900

all-around-world-labor-losing-out-capital-labor-pains

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As incomes have been shifted fromworkers to capital owners,wealth inequality has alsosoared.IntheUS,forexample,thewealthshareofthe160,000familiesthatconstitutethetop0.1%morethantripledbetween1979and2012,from7%to22%.54Similarly,overthepastdecade,thecombinednetworthofthe400richestAmericanshasmorethandoubled,from$2.5to$5.7trillion,accordingtoForbesMagazine.Asthepriceofrobotsisexpectedtodeclinefurther,therearegoodreasonstobelievethatthelaborshareofGDPwillcontinuetofall over the decades leading up to 2030. Thus, in the absence of other shocks or policyinterventions,ownersofcapitalarelikelytocaptureagrowingshareofGDP.Nevertheless,whiledigitaltechnologiesarelikelytocontinuesubstitutingforanevenbroaderrange of workers, technological progress may also help boost the labor share of GDP asworkersacquireskillsthatarecomplementarytothetechnologiesthatarebeingdeveloped.Forexample,whileregisterednurses intheUnitedStatesearnonaverage66,220USDperyear, informatics nurse specialists, focused on the design and implementation ofcomputerizedhealthcaresystems,earn81,190USDannually.Thus, investments intoskillsthatcomplementthearrivalofnewdigitaltechnologiesmaynotonlyreduceinequalityamongthe99%butcouldalsohelpboostwagesandincreasethelaborshareofGDP.2.3InequalityandOpportunity:TheImpactonSocialMobilityThe hollowing-out of labor markets and the potential future displacement of low-skilledworkersarefuellinganalreadygrowingconcernthatassocietiesbecomemoreunequal,therewillbelessopportunityforthechildrenoflow-andmiddleskilledworkerstoadvanceuptheeconomicladder.Ashasbeenextensivelydocumented,however,muchofthesurgeinincomeinequalitystemsfromtheincreasingreturnstoeducation.This,inturn,hasimplicationsforsocialmobility.EvidencefromtheOECD’sSurveyofAdultSkillsunambiguouslyshowsthatadultsfromsocio-economicallydisadvantagedbackgroundshavelowerskillsproficiency,andthatparentaleducationisakeypredictorofachild’sskills.Asmanyelementaryoccupations,thathavepreviouslyprovidedastepping-stonetobetterpaidwork,havedisappearedoverrecentdecades,andagrowingshareoflow-skilledworkersarenowsusceptibletoautomation,acentralchallengeformanyworkerswillbetoupgradetheir skills---including skills such as creative thinking, social perceptiveness, negotiation,persuasion, the ability to care for others, and depth of perception---allowing them totransitionintomeaningfulandbetter-payingjobsthatarelesssusceptibletocomputerisation.Investmentstobroadlyimprovetheskillsoftheworkforcearethusnotonlylikelytopaylong-term dividends in terms of productivity gains but would also contribute to amore equaldistribution of skills, in turn equalizing incomes and boosting upward mobility. This issupported by evidence showing that those least well-off have a higher probability ofexperiencing upward mobility in places that invest in schooling.55 In particular, as socio- 54Saez,E.andZucman,G.(2014).WealthInequalityintheUnitedStatessince1913:EvidencefromCapitalizedIncomeTaxData,NBERWorkingPapers20625,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.55Chetty,R.,HendrenN.,Kline,P.andSaez,E.(2014).WhereistheLandofOpportunity?TheGeographyofIntergenerationalMobilityintheUnitedStates.NBERWorkingPaper19843,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.

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emotionalskillsamongchildrenshapetheirfuturedevelopmentofcognitiveskills,investmentsinsuchskillsduringtheschoolyearswillbeofcrucialimportance(seeFigure13forexamplesofassociatedsocialandemotionalskillsthatwillberequired).56Figure13.Social-emotionalskillsrequiredforspecificvariousjobs

Source:O*NET(http://www.onetonline.org/find/bright?b=3&g=Go).3.DemographicShifts:TheFutureofPopulations3.1ADecliningPopulation:DividendorDeficit? Oneofthemajorachievementsofthetwentiethcenturyhasbeenthesubstantialincreasesinlifeexpectancyacrosstheindustrialworld.Improvementsinnutrition,diseasepreventionandmedicineallowindividualstolivesubstantiallylonger,healthierandmorefulfillinglives.Overthenextdecades,newtechnologicaladvancesarelikelytoincreaselifeexpectancyevenfurther,toabove100yearsinmanyOECDcountries.57Longerlifespanshavealsocontributedtothegrowthoftheworld’spopulation,increasingfromabout1.7to6billionoverthecourseofthetwentiethcentury.Inthetwentiethcentury,however, declining fertility has meant that the industrial world is entering a period ofstagnatingandevendecliningpopulations.58Crucially,recentdeclinesinfertilitylargelystemfrom more women acquiring an education, in turn increasing the female labor forceparticipation,althoughculturalshiftsinthedesirednumberofchildrenandbetteraccesstocontraceptivesprovideadditionalimportantexplanatoryfactors.Whiletheaveragenumberofchildrenbornperwoman(aged15to49)was2.8acrosstheOECDin1970,theequivalent 56Cunha,F.andJ.J.Heckman(2008),Formulating,identifyingandestimatingthetechnologyofcognitiveandnoncognitiveskillformation,JournalofHumanResources,Vol.43,No.4,pp.738-782.andOECD(2015b)SkillsforSocialProgress:ThePowerofSocialandEmotionalSkills,OECDSkillsStudies,OECDPublishing.57Vaupel,J.W.(2010)Biodemographyofhumanageing.Nature464,536–542.58Whilewhetheradeclineinpopulationsisdesirableornotisstillbeingintenselydebated,theworldpopulationissettopeakbetween9and10billionby2050(Goldin,2014).

26

figureisnow1.7.59Today,nearlyallOECDcountrieshavetotalfertilityratesbelow2.1—thatis,therateneededtosustainastablepopulation.AccordingtoUNprojections,mostindustrialcountries are also expected to exhibit fertility rates below-replacement levels over theforthcomingdecades,althoughtherearesubstantialdifferencesacross regions. InEurope,fertilityratesareprojectedtoincreasefrom1.6to1.7by2030;inAsia,theyareexpectedtofallfrom2.1to2.0;whereasintheUS,theyareprojectedtoremainat2.0.60Figure14.UNPopulationGrowthForecasts

Source:UN(2012)This tendencymeans that populationswill stabilize and eventually decline. The Europeanpopulationisprojectedtofallfromabout743milliontoday,to736millionby2030,andthepopulationofJapanisalreadyindecline(Figure14).61IntheOECDasawhole,thepopulationisexpectedto increaseonlyslightly, fromabout1.28to1.37billionoverthesameperiod.Mostpopulationgrowthisthusexpectedtocomefromthedevelopingworld,boostingtheworld’spopulationfromabout7.3to8.4billion.Aspopulationgrowthtapersoffintheindustrialworld,theagecompositionofnationsandregions will change dramatically: themedian age in Europe, for example, is projected toincrease from 41.4 to 44.7. Similarly, in Asia and Northern America, the median age isexpectedtoincreasefrom30.2to35.4,and37.9to39.8,respectively.62Alongwiththistrend,theshareofpeopleagedabove65willincreasesubstantially:intheOECD,oneinfivepeoplewill be 65 or older by 2030. Accordingly, nearly every industrial country will experience

59OECD(2014b),Totalfertilityrates,inOECDFactbook2014,OECDPublishing,Paris.60UN(2012)WorldPopulationProspects:The2012Revision,http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htmPopulationDivisionoftheDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairsoftheUnitedNationsSecretariat.61UN(2012)WorldPopulationProspects:The2012Revision,http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htmPopulationDivisionoftheDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairsoftheUnitedNationsSecretariat.62UN(2012)WorldPopulationProspects:The2012Revision,http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htmPopulationDivisionoftheDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairsoftheUnitedNationsSecretariat.

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increasesintheelderlydependencyratioby2030(Figure15),withconsiderableeffectsongrowthandtheskillsoftheworkforce.Figure15.Elderlydependencyratioswillincreaseby2030

Source:OECD(2013c).Aspopulationsage,thedemandforhealthcarewillcontinuetoincrease.Thisisreflectedinthewiderangeofnewandemerginghealthcare-relatedoccupations(Figure16),requiringcharacterqualitiessuchascaring,sociabilityandrespectaswellasserviceorientationandsocialperceptivenessskills.63Whileacutecarenursesandhospitalistsrequireahigherdegreeof social perceptiveness to understand emotional patterns and interact with patients,geneticistsandpathologistsrequireahigherdegreeofknowledgeaboutscienceandcriticalthinking. Furthermore, even in health care, digital skills are becoming more important:informatics nurse specialists, for example, focus on the design and implementation ofcomputerizedhealthcaresystems,requiringbeingabletoworkwithcomputers.

63OECD(2015b)SkillsforSocialProgress:ThePowerofSocialandEmotionalSkills,OECDSkillsStudies,OECDPublishing.

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Figure16.Agingandemergingoccupationsinhealthcare

Source:O*NET(http://www.onetonline.org/find/bright?b=3&g=Go).

3.2PopulationsandtheWorkforce:ImplicationsforGrowthandSkills

Aspeoplegrowoldertheyarealsomorelikelytodropoutofthelaborforce.AcrosstheOECDtheaveragelaborforceparticipationrateforthoseaged25-54is81.5%,butonly59.7%amongindividualsaged55-64.Thus,anagingpopulationwillreducethepercentageofproductiveworkers intheeconomy,as longasthecurrentageofretirementremains.Tocounterthistrend a wide range of skills will be required, including flexibility, life-long learning,perseverance,entrepreneurialabilityandcuriosity.Crucially,educatedworkersaresubstantiallymorelikelytoremainactiveinthelabormarketlaterinlife,reflectingboththeirhigheropportunitycostsofleavingworkandbetterhealth.InEurope,forexample,50%ofworkersaged60-64withadegreeremaininthelaborforce,whereasonly25%oflow-skilledworkersarestillinemployment.Paststudiesfurthersuggestthatabouthalfoftheincrease(from35to44%)inUSlaborforceparticipationamongthoseaged60-74overthepast25yearsistheresultofrisingeducationalattainmentamongolderworkers.64Although there is substantial variation in labor forceparticipation amongolderworkersacrosseconomies,thisisatrendthatisprevalentinmanycountries.

64Burtless,G.(2013).TheImpactofPopulationAgingandDelayedRetirementonWorkforceProductivity.WP#2013-11,CenterforRetirementResearchatBostonCollege.

Occupation Description Examples of skills

Example of Knowledge

Example of Character

Acute Care Nurses

Provide advanced nursing care for patients with acute conditions such as heart attacks, respiratory distress syndrome, or shock. May care for pre- and post-operative patients or perform advanced, invasive diagnostic or therapeutic procedures.

Service Orientation;

Social Perceptiveness

Medicine and Dentistry;

Psychology; English

Language.

Respect for others; patience;

sensibility.

Hospitalists Provide inpatient care predominantly in settings such as medical wards, acute care units, intensive care units, rehabilitation centers, or emergency rooms. Manage and coordinate patient care throughout treatment.

Service Orientation;

Social Perceptiveness

Biology; Customer and

Personal Service; Biology.

Care, kindness, compassion.

Geneticists Research and study the inheritance of traits at the molecular, organism or population level. May evaluate or treat patients with genetic disorders.

Critical Thinking; Science

Chemistry; Mathematics;

Biology.

Diligence; focus; exploration.

Pathologists Diagnose presence and stage of diseases using laboratory techniques and patient specimens. Study the nature, cause, and development of diseases. May perform autopsies.

Complex Problem Solving;

Science

Medicine and Dentistry;

Administration and Management;

Computers and Electronics.

Precision; dealing with ambiguity;

accountability.

Neurologists Diagnose, treat, and help prevent diseases and disorders of the nervous system.

Complex Problem Solving;

Social Perceptiveness

Psychology; Therapy and Counseling; Psychology.

Goal-orientation; exploration; commitment.

Informatics Nurse Specialist

Apply knowledge of nursing and informatics to assist in the design, development, and ongoing modification of computerized health care systems. May educate staff and assist in problem solving to promote the implementation of the health care system.

Systems Analysis; Critical

Thinking

Customer and Personal Service;

Medicine and Dentistry;

Education and Training.

Feedback; project/program

management; cooperation.

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Theimplicationsofthesedemographicshiftsarepotentiallysevere:ashrinkinglaborforcewillmechanically reduce economic growth unless it is offset by productivity gains amongyounger workers that remain in the labor force. Had the projected population changesthrough2050occurredbetween1960and2005,forexample,theaverageannualgrowthratefortheOECDcountrywouldhavebeen0.7%lower(2.1%ratherthan2.8%).65OtherestimatessuggestthatJapan’sshrinkingworkforcehasreducedaverageannualGDPgrowthbyroughly0.6percentagepoints,andinGermanygrowthhasbeen0.5percentagepointsslowerasaresult.66Alarmist views of the economic impact of population aging are, however, based on theassumptionthatage-specificbehaviorwillremainconstantovertime,whichisproblematicsinceindividualsmayadapttofurtherincreasesinlifeexpectancy.Investinginaneducationismoreattractivethelongerthatinvestmentpaysoffandlookingforwardtoalargershareoftheirlifeinretirement,workersmayadaptbysavingmoreduringtheiractiveworkinglives.Morefundamentally,thesedemographicprojectionsareuncertainthemselves:accordingtotheUN’spredictionsfor2030,theworldpopulationmaybeanythingbetween7.9and8.9billion.At the same time, it is important not to understate the challenge ahead. In essence,governmentswillbefacedwiththreemainoptionstomitigatetheeffectsofagingpopulationsby 2030: harnessing the skills of olderworkers, encouraging immigration, attractingmorewomen into the labor force,andembracingautomation.Although the immigrationoptionmayoffsetageimbalancesinthelaborforceitisunlikelytobridgetheskillsgap:immigrantshavesubstantiallylowerproficiencyonaverage,evenwhenadjustingforanumberofotherfactors.67Furthermore,immigrationwillrequiretheworkforcetodevelopentirelynewskills.Inparticular,arecentUNESCOreporthaspointedattheimportanceofpromotingskillssuchastolerance,knowledgeofotherculturesandempathy,tocreateabetterunderstandingforpeoplefromdifferentbackgrounds.68Similarly,Delors(1996)pointstowardstheimportanceof learning to live together by developing “an understanding of others and their history,traditions and spiritual values and, on this basis, creating a new spirit which, guided byrecognition of our growing interdependence and common analysis of these risks andchallengesofthefuture,wouldinducepeopletoimplementcommonprojectsortomanagetheinevitableconflictsinanintelligentandpeacefulway.”

65Bloom,D.E.,Canning,D.andFink,G.(2011).ImplicationsofPopulationAgingforEconomicGrowth,NBERWorkingPapers16705,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.66TheEconomist(2014).Ageinvaders.Apr24th2014.http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21601248-generation-old

people-about-change-global-economy-they-will-not-all-do-so67OECD(2013a)OECDSkillsOutlook2013,FirstResultsfromtheSurveyofAdultSkills,Paris:OECD,2013.68UnitedNations,DepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairs,PopulationDivision(2014).WorldUrbanizationProspects:The2014Revision,CD-ROMEdition.

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Figure17.Problem-solvingskillsdeclinewithage

Notes:Theadjustedseriestakeaccountforeducationalattainmentandforeign-language.Source:OECD(2013a).Thus, somesubstantial skillupgradingof theworkforcewillbe required toadapt to thesedemographic shifts. Inparticular,aspopulationsgraduallyage,providingopportunities forupgrading or re-skilling later in lifewill become increasingly important.Olderworkers aretypicallylessproficientthantheiryoungercounterparts,reflectingalackofopportunitiestomaintain, refine and update skills over their careers as well as biological aging. Problem-solvingskills,forexample,peakaroundtheageof30anddeclinethereafter.69Inaddition,asdigital skills arebecoming increasingly important, a key concern is that olderworkers usedigitaltechnologiessubstantiallylessandwillrequiremoreintensivetrainingtomaintaintheiremployability.With a larger share of older workers in the labor force, flexible and skills-orientatedlearningmustthereforebemadeavailabletoworkersthroughouttheircareers.Fortunately, digital technologies can also help transform education to expand theopportunitiesforagingworkerstomaintainandupgradetheirskills.Distance learningandmassiveopenonline courses (MOOCs)promise a flexible and cheaperway forworkers tolearn; in 2013, 9.3% of the Internet users in the OECD took part in an online course.70Approaches to distance learningwill also becomemore important, as exemplified by theemergingoccupationofDistanceLearningCoordinators that train instructors in theuseofdistancelearningapplications.Furthermore, the expanding scope of automation can help offset some of the decline inpopulationgrowthascomputersarenowabletoperformmanytasksthathavepreviouslybeenconfinedtohumanlabor.Atthesametime,low-andmid-skilledworkerswillhaveto

69Yet,differencesinskillsproficiencybetweentheoldandyoungdifferwidelybetweencountries,suggestingascopeforpolicymakers(OECD2013a).70OECD(2014a),MeasuringtheDigitalEconomy:ANewPerspective,OECDPublishing.

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reallocatetojobsthatarelesssusceptibletoautomation.Countriesthatsuccessfullyupskilltheirworkforce,makingtheirskillscomplementarytodigitaltechnologies,willalsoexperiencefurtherproductivitygainsasaresult.Jobautomationandupgrading/re-skillingthusneedtogohand-in-hand.Otherdemographicshiftswillalso influencetheskillsoftheworkforce.Overthepast fourdecades,marriagerateshaveplummetedfromabouteightper1000peopletofive,divorcerateshavetripledsince1980,and15%ofchildrennowliveinsingle-parenthouseholds.71Asevidence from the PISA study shows that students from single-parent families performsubstantiallyworserelativetootherstudents,thisprovidesachallengeforskillsdevelopment.Similarly,acrosslocallabormarketsintheUS,thereisaconsiderablenegativerelationshipbetweenaveragetestscoresandthestabilityoffamilystructures,proxiedbythefractionofchildrenlivingwithsinglemothers(Figure18).Investingindevelopingskillsamongthemostdisadvantagedwouldthuslikelyyieldlargebenefits,bothintermsofindividualwelfareandeconomicgrowth.Figure18.Testscoresarelowerinplaceswithweakerfamilystructures

Notes:TestscorescorrespondtomeantestscoresinEnglishandmathadjustedfordifferencesinhouseholdincomepercapita.Source:Chettyetal.(2014).

71OECD(2011)“TheFutureofFamiliesto2030”InternationalFuturesProgramme,OECD.

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4.UrbanizationandInnovationAsfamouslyproposedbyLucas(1988),citiesacrosstheindustrialworldprovide“theenginesofgrowth”.Despiterecentclaimsthatthedeathofdistancefacilitatedbyimprovementsininformationandcommunicationstechnologywouldmakegeographylessimportant,leadingto the decline of cities, the opposite has happed.72 Today, a larger part of the world’spopulationislivingincitiesthanadecadeago—atrendthatislikelytocontinue.AccordingtoprojectionsbytheUN,theshareofthepopulationlivinginurbanareasisexpectedtogrowevenfurtheracrosshigh-,middle-andlow-incomecountriesovertheforthcomingdecades(Figure19).Figure19.Urbanizationisincreasingeverywhereby2030

Notes:Percentageofthepopulationthatlivesinurbanareas.Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division(2014).This concentrationofeconomicactivity, following themigration fromrural areas to cities,posts important challenges for societies. At a timewhen growth rates across nations areconverging, disparities within countries are growing, both in terms of education andincomes:73whilecomputertechnologieshavemadetheskillsthatareprevalentinmanyruralareas and older manufacturing cities redundant, the shift towards technology industries,where knowledge transmission is particularly important, has made new occupations and

72Glaeser,E.L.(1998).AreCitiesDying?,JournalofEconomicPerspectives,12(2):139-160.73Berry,C.R.andGlaeser,E.L.(2005).Thedivergenceofhumancapitallevelsacrosscities.Papersinregionalscience,84(3),407–444.

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industriesclusterinskilledcities.Forexample,thecontinuousrenewalofclusterslikeSiliconValley,whichhasattractedthehighershareofnewindustriessincetheturnofthecentury,islargely the result of workers frequently switching jobs, leading to the creation of newcompanies and industries.While some older cities such as Boston and London have alsosuccessfullymanaged this renewal process tobecome innovationhubs,manyplaceshaveexperienceddeclinesbothinrelativeandabsoluteterms:Detroit,LiverpoolandBremenforexamplearetodayallsmallercitiesthantheyoncewere.Figure20.Newjobsarecreatedincitieswithcognitiveskills

Notes:ThisfigureshowsthepercentageofworkersinUScitiesthatwereemployedinjobsthatappearedforthefirsttimebetween1990and2000,andthepercentageofworkerswithcognitiveskills.Source:Berger&Frey(2014a).Importantly,acity’sabilitytoreinventitself isdeterminedbyitsresiliencetothearrivalofnewtechnologiesanditscapacitytoinnovate,whichinturnisafunctionoftheskillsofitsworkers.74 In particular, over recent decades, cities’ withmore cognitive skills have beenbetter at incorporating new technologies into new types of jobs reflecting the risingimportance of such skills in advanced economies. Because skill levels differwidelywithincountries,sodothefutureprospectsofreinventionacrosscities.Forexample,differencesineducation between certain cities within the US are larger than differences in averageeducational levels between the US and developing countries such as India or Peru.75Furthermore,asolderworkersarelesslikelytotransitionintonewoccupationsandindustries,whichtendtoclusterinskilledcities,anagedivideacrosslocationislikelytoemerge,leadingtoadeclineinthetechnologicaldynamismofagingcities.76AsshowninFigure21,patenting

74Saez,E.andZucman,G.(2014).WealthInequalityintheUnitedStatessince1913:EvidencefromCapitalizedIncomeTaxData,NBERWorkingPapers20625,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,Inc.;Frey,C.B.(2014).How21st-CenturyCitiesCanAvoidtheFateof20th-CenturyDetroit,ScientificAmerican,August22,2014.75Moretti,E.(2014)“Arecitiesthenewgrowthescalator?”WorldBankPolicyResearchworkingpaper;no.WPS6881.76Lin,J.(2011).TechnologicalAdaptation,Cities,andNewWork.ReviewofEconomicsandStatistics,93(2),554–574.;Berger,T.,andFrey,C.B.(2014a)TechnologyShocksandUrbanEvolutions:DidtheComputerRevolutionShifttheFortunesofU.S.Cities?.OxfordMartinSchoolWorkingPaper.

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ratesinUScitieswiththeyoungestpopulationsaremorethantwiceashighasthoseintheoldestcities.Figure21.Youngercitiesaremoreinnovative

Source:SeeBerger&Frey(2014b).Thus,inequalityacrosscitiesislikelytocontinuegrowing,unlessactionistakentoupskill/re-skillagingpopulations,andeffortsaremadetosupportthediffusionofcognitiveskillsacrosscitiesandregions.Atthesametime,theclusteringofentrepreneursandeducatedworkersinskilledcitiesisstilllikelytocontinuebeingthemaindriverofinnovationandnewjobcreationoverthenextdecades,leadingtofurtherincreasesinpropertypricesinprimelocations.Whilerising costs of land and housing reflect productive advantages, findingways to curb priceincreasesthatkeepworkersandentrepreneursoutarecrucial.Theeasiestwaytomeetsucha challengewouldbe to increase the supply of housing in skilled cities,which couldhavesubstantialeffectsonnationalgrowthrates.Expandingthesupplyofhousing,inplaceswhereskilled workers cluster, wouldmake cognitive skills (figure 22), such as complex problemsolving and critical thinking, more productive, while facilitating spillovers to less skilledworkers.Figure22.EmergingSkills

Source:O*NET(http://www.onetonline.org/find/bright?b=3&g=Go).

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Overthenextdecadesskilledcitieswillremainthedriverofinnovationandthecreationofnewoccupationsandindustries.Overthelong-run,thisisalsolikelytobenefitothercitiesandregions:gradually,asthenewworkbecomes"old"work,ittendstodiffusetootherlocations.Inotherwords,whileweexpectthatnewtypesofworkwillbeconcentratedinskilledcities,where entrepreneurs, innovators and early adopters experimentwith new technologies,77other regions will benefit as new work migrates from skilled locations.78 In the UnitedKingdom,forexample,newjobcreationisinitiallyoverwhelminglyconcentratedtoCentralLondon but also benefits neighbouring regions as it diffuses over time.79 Regionaldevelopment strategies that aim at breaking up existing clusters to smoothen new jobcreationarethuslikelytobecounterproductive.Instead,investmentsintransportationandcommunications technology that facilitate the diffusion of innovations and skills acrosslocations, includingdisadvantagedareas, aremore likely tohelp. Furthermore, supportinglinksbetween localuniversitiesandbusinessescanbeofcrucial importance:sinceWilliamHewlett andDavidPackard, twoStanford students, formedHewlett-Packard (HP) in1938,Stanfordalumni alonehave created some39,900 companies andabout5.4million jobs.80Although it is notoriously difficult to replicate successful clusters, governments andeducationalinstitutionsshouldfocusonsupportingskillsdevelopmentlocallybyinvestinginskills associatedwith complex problem solving; science,mathematical reasoning, creativethinkingentrepreneurialabilityandcuriosity,whilebuildingtheinfrastructuretosupportthediffusionofknowledgeandskillsacrosslocations.Inasummary,thissectionon‘Globaltrendsanditsimpactonthelabourmarket’examinedhowfutureshiftsandshockswilltransformtheworkforceandwithitthedemandforskills.Thefindingsbuildonagrowingbodyofresearch,suggestingthattheglobalworkforceisfacingseveral transformative challenges. The expanding scope of automation is reducing thedemand for labor in severaldomains,whilemaking the skillsofmanyworkers redundant,contributingtotherecentsurgeininequality.Digitaltechnologiesarelesscapital-absorbingrelativetoinnovationsofthepast,leadingtoareducedinvestmentdemandandsluggishjobcreation.81Togetherwiththeconcentrationofincomesamongindividualswithlowermarginalpropensities tospend,anagingpopulationandashrinking labor forceare likely toreducedemandevenfurther,potentiallyleadingtoaperiodofsecularstagnation.Withtherightpoliciesandinterventionssuchanoutcomecanbeavoided.Byupskillingtheworkforce,gainsinproductivitycouldoffsetthedeclineingrowthassociatedwithashrinkinglaborforce,whilemakingworkerslessvulnerabletoautomation.Furthermore,thediffusion

77Lin,J.(2011).TechnologicalAdaptation,Cities,andNewWork.ReviewofEconomicsandStatistics,93(2),554–574.;Berry,C.R.andGlaeser,E.L.(2005).Thedivergenceofhumancapitallevelsacrosscities.Papersinregionalscience,84(3),407–444.78 Duranton, G. and Puga, D. (2001). Nursery cities: Urban diversity, process innovation, and the life cycle of products.AmericanEconomicReview,pages1454–1477.79Frey,C.B.(2015b).NewjobcreationintheUK:whichregionswillbenefitmostfromthedigitalrevolution?In:PwCUKEconomicOutlookMarch2015.80Eesley,C.andMiller,W.F.(2012).StanfordUniversity’sEconomicImpactviaInnovationandEntrepreneurship.StanfordAlumniInnovationSurvey.81Frey,C.B. (2015a).TheEndofEconomicGrowth?HowtheDigitalEconomyCouldLeadtoSecularStagnationScientificAmerican,Vol.312,No.1.

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ofskillsandknowledgeprovidesthemostimportantforceofconvergence,therebyreducinginequalityandpotentiallyboostingspending.Whileitisextremelydifficulttopredictthetypeof jobs that will emerge in the future, the skills requirements of new and emergingoccupations are suggestive of the type of skills that will be needed. Occupations such asnanotechnologyengineers,solarenergyengineers,webdevelopers,andbiostatisticians,allinvolvecomplexproblemsolvingandcreativethinking.Furthermore,withanagingpopulationthedemandforcarewillcontinuetoincrease.Relatedskills,suchasassistingandcaringforothersaswell as socialperceptivenessandemotional intelligence,will thusbecomemoreimportant. As recent research suggests that computer technologies are least likely tosubstituteforcreativeandsocialskills,thereisastrongcaseforinvestingnotonlyintechnicalskills.Infact,mostfuturechallengesarelikelytorequirefusionofskills---thusacombinationofknowledgesuchas science,mathematicsandcomputerprogrammingandskills suchastheoreticalreasoningandcriticalthinkingwillbeessential,butalsoawiderangeofcharacterqualitiesincludingresilience,adaptabilityandcuriositywillbeimportant.

PartII:SkillsdemandsaccordingtoO*NETandOECD

O*NETiswidelyconsideredtobethemostdetailedandcomprehensiveassessmentofskillsusedinemploymentthatexists.82IthasbeendevelopedbytheBureauofLaborStatisticsintheUnited States and, as such, is geared towards theoccupational contentof jobs in thelabourmarketintheUS.O*NEThasbeenregularlyusedfortheanalysisoftheUnitedStatesbutalsocountriesotherthantheUS.Aspreviouslymentioned,eventhoughitisdifficulttoforeseethetypeofjobsthatwillariseinthefuture,theskillsdemandfornewandemergingjobscanserveasanindicatorofwhatmightbeneededinthefuture.TheOECDskillneedsindicators83provideanovelstrategytoquantitativelyestimateskillshortagesandsurplusesusingO*NETdatabase.Theinformationcontainedintheindicatorsisprovidedtoensurecomparabilityacrosscountriesofregularlyupdatedresults.Anothermajorstrengthof these indicators lies in thedetailedmapping that ismade fromresults of occupations in shortage to measures of skills required in each occupationconsidered.ThismappingiscarriedoutbyattachingtooccupationalresultstheinformationprovidedbyO*NETonboththelevelandimportanceofdifferentskilldimensionsforeachoftheoccupationsanalysed.O*NET covers both cognitive and non-cognitive skill requirements, as well as tasks, workcontext and work activities. The database is updated annually for new and emergingoccupations.DespitepossiblechallengesinvolvedinusingtheO*NETdatabase,thisremains

82Beblavý,Miroslav,andBrianFabo.2016.‘ImpactofStudentWorkersontheEuropeanLaborMarkets’.HumanResourceManagement6::27-41.83Gettingskillsright:SkillsforJobsIndicators,OECD2017

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themostcomprehensiveassessmentofskillsinemploymentthatexistsanditis,undoubtedly,acrucialsourceofinformationformappingoccupationstoskillneeds.TheO*NETdatabasecontainsdetailedinformationforoccupationsonarangeofdimensionsrelated to worker characteristics, worker requirements, experience requirements,occupational requirements, workforce characteristics and occupation-specific information.TheOECDSkillsforJobsDatabaseusedthefollowingdimensions:

• Abilities (52 categories): Enduring attributes of the individual that influenceperformance(e.g.originality,depthperception,fingerdexterity).

• Knowledge types (33 categories):Organised setsofprinciples and facts applying ingeneral domains (e.g. business and management, engineering and technology,mathematicsandscience).

• Skills (35 categories): Developed capacities that facilitate learning or performance,includingbasicskills(e.g.activelistening,writing,criticalthinking)andcross-functionalskills(e.g.negotiation,programming,timemanagement).

• Workstyles(15categories):Personalcharacteristicsthatcanaffecthowwellsomeoneperformsajob(e.g.persistence,leadership,attentiontodetail).

Eachknowledge,skillandabilitydimensioninO*NETiscodifiedbyassigningcategoricalvaluestotheir“importance”forthejoband“level”bywhichthedimensionisused,whileworkstylesandcontextsareclassifiedsolelybasedon“importance”.ThedegreeofshortageandsurplusinawiderangeofskilltypesiscalculatedforEuropeancountriesandSouthAfrica.Thissectionprovidesanoverviewofaselectionoftheimbalancesforknowledge,skillsandabilities.Bluecells inthefigure23 indicateshortagesandgreycellssurpluses,withdarkercoloursreflectingbiggerimbalancesinbothdimensions.Themostcommonknowledgeshortagesarefoundincomputersandelectronics,educationandtrainingaswellasinsomemathematicsandsciencefields(e.g.geography,biology)andinthehealthcarefield(i.e.therapyandcounselling,psychologyandmedicineanddentistry;seeFigure23).Fortheseknowledgetypesalmostallcountrieshaveshortages.Shortagesofthis kind are most common in Finland, the Netherlands but also Ireland and Belgium.Surpluses, on the other hand, are mainly found for transportation, manufacturing andproduction, building and construction, and mechanical knowledge. While these technicalknowledgetypesareinsurplusinmostcountries,shortagesoftheseknowledgetypescanbeobservedincountrieslikeFrance,Denmark,IcelandandLithuania.84

84Gettingskillsright:SkillsforJobsIndicators,OECD2017

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Figure23.KnowledgeneedsacrossEuropeancountriesandSouthAfrica

Skillshortagesareconcentratedamongcontentskills(e.g.readingcomprehension,writing,speakingandactivelistening),processskills(e.g.criticalthinkingandactivelearning),complexproblemsolvingskillsandsocialskills(e.g.instructing,socialperceptiveness).TheshortagesarebiggestinFinland,Luxembourg,theNetherlands,SpainorGermanywhilesmaller(oreveninsurplus) inSwitzerland,Hungary,CyprusorSouthAfrica (Figure24).Surplusesaremorecommonfortechnicalskills,suchasequipmentmaintenanceandrepairing.Whilesomeskillsareinshortageinallcountries,therearenoskillsthatareinsurplusacrossallcountries.Sometechnicalskillsareinsurplusinthemajorityofcountries,butinsome,likeforexampleFrance,Denmark,theCzechRepublic,theSlovakRepublic,Portugal,RomaniaandLithuaniaarangeofthemarealsofoundtobeinshortage.85

85Gettingskillsright:SkillsforJobsIndicators,OECD2017

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Figure24.SkillneedsacrossEuropeancountriesandSouthAfrica

The shortage inabilities inmost countries occursmainly for cognitive abilities, aswell asauditoryandspeechabilities(Figure25).TheseshortagesarebiggestinSpain,Luxembourg,Finland and Germany. Surpluses are mainly found for physical (e.g. endurance, physicalstrength) and psychomotor (e.g. finemanipulation, controlmovement) abilities.While allcountrieshavesurplusesofphysicalabilities,somecountrieshavesomedegreeofshortageformultiple psychomotor abilities (i.e. France, Denmark, Portugal and Lithuania). Overall,abilityimbalancesaremoresimilaracrosscountriesthantheimbalancesobservedforskillsandknowledge.

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Figure25.AbilitiesneedsacrossEuropeancountriesandSouthAfrica

Theprojectionaboutskillsimbalancesusesalargenumberofparametersthatareimportantfortheoccupationsandcaninformusaboutthefutureskillsdemands.Inordertosynthetizethesefindings,theCCRuseditsframeworkasafilterandconcatenated86downthelisttothe12mostessentialcompetencies.(Figure26.)One major conclusion from the CCR analysis is that Knowledge, albeit critical, is notsufficient,andthatoccupationsalsorequireskills,characterandmeta-learningabilities. 86Theconcatenationenginecanbeexploredathttps://curriculumredesign.org/onetexplorer_ccr/

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Figure26.O*NET+BLSDemandmappedtoCCR

Source:CenterforCurriculumRedesignTheBrookingsInstituteindependentlyidentifiedthemostessential21stcenturyskillsacross30countriesworldwideandcametosimilarconclusionofthreeessentialskills(whichwereits focus): communication, creativity, critical thinking/problem solving.87 Furthermore, theBusinessIndustryAdvisoryCommitteetotheOECDconductedasurveyamongthemembercountriesandfoundthatemployersconsiderthefollowingcharacterqualitiesasbeingof’veryhigh’importancetotheworkplace(indescendingorder)88:

1.Ethics2.Leadership3.Resilience=Curiosity4.Mindfulness5.Courage.

Anotherinsightfromresearchonlabourmarketdemandspointedoutthattherequirementsofprofessionalandpersonallifearenotparticularlydifferentanymore.Attheindividuallevel,21st century millennial workers want to have the Maslow hierarchy of needs satisfied.Therefore,acquiringtheabove-mentionedcompetenciesisimportantforaperson’sworkandlifewell-being. 87Brookings2016–“VisualizingtheBreadthofSkillsMovementacrossEducationSystems(EstherCare,etal)88BIACSurvey2015:CharacterQualitiesfortheWorkplace

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PartIII.TheCasefor21stCenturyEducation&CompetenciesIn collaboration with the OECD’s Education 2030 project89, CCR tabulated, analysed andsynthetizedthirty-twoframeworks90fromaroundtheworld,andfoundthatthereisgeneralagreementonthesefourdimensionsofgoalsfora21stcenturyeducation.Figure27highlightsthe commonalities among some of the most significant frameworks, and shows CCR’sframeworkinrelationtothoseforcomparison.TheCCRframeworksynthesizesexistingresearchwiththeoverarchingcomplementarygoalsofaddressingtheneedsofthe21stcenturyeducationwhilemaximizingbothaccuracyandclarity.Figure27.CCRFramework

Adaptingto21stcenturyneedsmeansrevisitingeachdimensionandtheirinterplay:3.1Knowledge—Whatweknowandunderstand.Knowledge is the dimension most emphasized in the traditional view of curriculum andcontent.Yetascollectiveknowledgeincreases,curriculumhasnotsuccessfullykeptup.Thecurrentcurriculumisoftenrelevantneithertostudents(reflectedintheirdisengagementand

89Education2030:theOECDKeyCompetenciesFramework90OECDSkillsforInnovation,OECDDeSeCo,OECDSocial&EmotionalSkills,OECDPISA,OECDPIAAC,EUReferenceFrameworkKeyCompetencies,UNESCOGlobalCitizenshipEducation,P21,etc.

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lackofmotivation)nor tosocietalandeconomicneeds.Thus, there isaprofoundneedtorethink the significance and applicability ofwhat is taught, and simultaneously to strike abetterbalancebetweenthetheoreticalandthepractical.ReserveTraditionaldisciplines(Maths,Science,Languages-domestic&foreign,SocialStudies,Arts,etc.)areofcourseessential.Toughchoicesmustbemadeaboutwhattoparebackinorderto allow for more appropriate areas of focus (for instance in Maths, more statistics &probabilities,andlesstrigonometry),includingconcomitantdepththatwillcultivatetheotherthreedimensions(Skills,Character,Meta-Learning).Moderndisciplines(suchasTechnology& Engineering, Media, Entrepreneurship & Business, Personal Finance, Wellness, SocialSystems, etc.) respond to present and future demands andmust be accommodated as anormalpartofthecurriculum,notassupplementaryoroptionalactivities.Interdisciplinarityisastrongbindingmechanismwithinandbetweentraditionalandmoderndisciplines,andthepracticesitrequireshavethepotentialtoimpacttheSkills,CharacterandMeta-Learning dimensions as well as accentuate knowledge transfer. Interdisciplinaryapproachestoknowledgewillhelplearnersmakeconnectionsbetweenconcepts,facilitatingdeeperlearning.3.2Skills91—HowweusewhatweknowHigher-order skills (such as the “4 C’s” of Creativity, Critical thinking, Communication,Collaboration,) are essential for deeply learning Knowledge as well as for demonstratingunderstanding through performance. Yet the curriculum is already overburdened withcontent,makingitharderforstudentstoacquire(andteacherstoteach)skills.Additionally,thereisalackofsupportforeducatorsincombiningknowledgeandskillsinrobustpedagogiesanddeeperlearningexperiences.Thereis,however,areasonableglobalconsensusonwhattheskillsareatthebroadestlevel,andhowdifferentpedagogies(suchasprojects)canaffecttheiracquisition.CreativityAsCsikszentmihalyisaid,withoutcreativity,mankindwouldnotprogress.92Organizationsandindividuals’ hope for the future lies in finding creative solutions to pressing problems asinnovation is what drives the economy today. OECD cross-country analysis finds thatemployment in lessproductive firms tends todecline,whilemoreproductive firms createadditional jobs. In the long run, innovation and employment creation go hand in hand,contributingtoaninclusiveandhigh-employmenteconomy.93AccordingtotheP21research,nearly threequartersof respondents (73%)expectcreativityand innovationto increase inimportanceforfuturegraduates.Employers’focusoncreativity/innovationasanincreasinglyimportant future skill correspondswith numerous reports that emphasize the capacity to 91Thereisnowordthatworksequallywellinalllanguagestoconveythemeaningof“Skills”,whichendsupbeingthebestcompromise.Itcouldbe“competencies”,“savoir-faire”,“proficiencies”,etc. Trilling,B.&Fadel,C.(2009).92Csikszentmihalyi,Mihaly(1996).Creativity:Flowandthepsychologyofdiscoveryandinvention,HarperPerennialPublisher.93(OECD,2010).

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innovate as the single most important element in maintaining economic growth andcompetitiveness.CollaborationCollaboration drives innovation. As Sawyer (2007) observed, every business success, fromtrendycompaniesinSiliconValleythroughmanufacturingfirmstohighlytechnicalresearchlabs,wasbasedoncollaboration.94Themost radicalbreakthroughs suchas television, theairplane,e-mailemerged fromacollaborativenetworkofpeople.And today’s innovationsemergefromevermorecomplexorganizationsandinteractingteams.AccordingtoSawyer,lonegeniusisamyth; insteadit isagroupgeniusthatgeneratesbreakthroughinnovation.Whenpeoplecollaborate,creativityunfoldsacrosstheteamandthewholeisgreaterthanthesum of its parts. Thus, teamwork is imperative for the current interconnected workenvironment.CriticalthinkingCritical thinking ishighlighted inalmosteverydiscussionofkeycompetencies for the21stcentury.Criticalthinkingincludesinductiveanddeductivereasoning,aswellasmakingcorrectanalyses, inferences, and evaluations. These competencies are important for deeplyunderstandingacademiccontent,andtheyalsorelatetolatercareerperformance.Researchsuggeststhatforacompanytocompete intheglobaleconomy, itneedsworkerswhowillthinkabouthowtocontinuously improve itsproducts,processes,orservices.Accordingtomany executives, the heart of this continuous improvement process is knowing the rightquestionstoask95,afunctionofcriticalthinking.EconomistsFrankLevyandRichardMurnanehavedescribedthenewworldofworkinwhichthemostdesirablejobsandtheonesleastlikelytobeautomatedoroutsourcedaretheonesthatrequireexpertthinkingcomprisedofcriticalthinkingandproblem-solvingskills.96CommunicationCommunication is identifiedasavital21stcenturycompetencybyalmostall thesurveyedorganizations.Communicationisvitaltofacilitateteamworkandliesatthecoreofempathy,trust, conflict resolution, and negotiation.97 For instance, effectiveness with clients oftenhinges on effective communication and the teamwork necessary to produce a superiorproduct. Communication skills are especially important in the expanding service economywhere relationshipswith customers and fellow employees are of vital importance. At thesametime,astechnologygivesrisetoglobalworkteamsthatspantimezones,nationsandcultures, it is more imperative than ever that future graduates will be effectivecommunicators.Theimportanceofcommunicationintheworkforcehasgeneratedincreasedfocusontheseskillsinschools. 94Sawyer,2007.GroupGenius:TheCreativePowerofCollaboration(2007)95Wagner201096Autor,D.(2013).TheChangingTaskCompositionoftheUSLaborMarket:AnUpdateofAutor,Levy,andMurnane(2003),MITandNBER,BrendanPrice,MIT,June212013.97PellegrinoandHilton(2013)

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3.3“Character”—HowwebehaveandengageintheworldIncreasingly,theneedforthedevelopmentofqualitiesbeyondknowledgeandskillsisbeinghighlightedaroundtheworld.Therearethreecommonlycited,broadpurposesofcharactereducation—itcan:

• Buildafoundationforlifelonglearning• Supportsuccessfulrelationshipsathome,inthecommunity,andintheworkplace• Developthepersonalvaluesandvirtuesforsustainableparticipationinaglobalized

world.

This dimension has very different nomenclature in different spheres, making consensuschallenging. The dimension of Character encompasses these terms: agency, attitudes,behaviors, beliefs, dispositions, mindsets, personality, temperament, values, social andemotionalskills,non-cognitiveskills,andsoftskills.Character,althoughsometimeschargedwith non-educational connotations, is nevertheless a concise and inclusive term that isrecognizablebyallcultures.Asalreadymentionedabove,CCRhassynthesizedmorethan32frameworks,researchandfeedbackfromaroundtheworldtoarriveatsixessentialcharacterqualities,eachencompassingabroadrangeofrelatedterms.Thesequalitiesare:Mindfulness;Curiosity;Courage;Resilience;Ethics;andLeadership,inwhichallotherqualitiesandconceptscanbe fitted. Therefore, in addition to six core character qualitieswehave identified theassociatedqualities(figure28).Figure28.Topcharacterqualitiesandassociatedqualities

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MindfulnessResearchsuggeststhatmindfulnesstrainingcanenhanceattentionandfocus,andimprovememory,self-acceptance,self-managementskills,andself-understanding.98Ithasalsobeenassociated with “higher positive emotional affect, vitality, life satisfaction, self-esteem,optimism, and self-actualization,” as well as with “higher autonomy, competence, andrelatedness.”99Ithasalsobeenproposedasamechanismtoaddressoppressionandawaytocombatglobalcrises,andtheinabilitytorespondtotheseoverwhelmingissuesduetoalackof easy ways to translate knowledge into personal and collective action.100 Even briefmindfulness meditation trainings have been shown to reduce fatigue and anxiety, andimprovevisual-spatialprocessing,workingmemory,andexecutivefunctioning.

CuriosityCuriosity helps to motivate and drive people towards continuous learning. Often whatstudentsknow isnotas importantaswhat theywant toknow.High test scoresacademicachievement is precededby intellectual curiositywhich is arguably thebetter indicatorofsuccess. Thedesire to learn isoneof themost importantdeterminatesofhow successfulpeoplewillbeinschool,inworkandinlife.Intellectualcuriosityisonethetoptraitsemployerslookforamongtheirhires.Apersonwhowillhardlyadoptanewdatabaseisnotasattractiveasonewhoistrulypassionateaboutlearningnewthings.Theabilitytosolveproblemandcontinueddedicationtolearningnewtechnologiesorsolutionsthatwillcontinuetoadvanceinthechangingworkplaceismoreimportantthanspecificexpertise.CourageCouragecanbethoughtofastheabilitytoactdespitefearoruncertainty,inriskysituations,or when we are feeling vulnerable.101 While courage can be taken to extremes, withpotentiallydevastatingconsequences,itisstilltruethatahealthydoseofcouragecanbequitehelpfulinone’sprofessional,social,andpersonallife.Acommonlycitedprofessionalexampleisentrepreneurship.Whilestudieshavenotfoundentrepreneurstobesignificantlymorerisk-taking on self-rated measures, they have found they are courageous. Multivariate testsrevealed that entrepreneurs categorized equivocal business scenarios significantly morepositivelythandidothersubjects,andunivariatetestsdemonstratedthattheseperceptualdifferenceswereconsistentandsignificant—thatis,entrepreneursperceivedmorestrengthsas compared to weaknesses, opportunities as compared to threats, and potential forperformanceimprovementascomparedtodeteriorationinthebusinessscenarios.102Infact,onepaperdescribesorganizationalfailuresastheconsequencesof“failuresofcourage,”since

98I.E.Fodor,andK.E.Hooker.“TeachingMindfulnesstoChildren,”GestaltReview12,no.1(2008):75–99K.W.BrownandR.M.Ryan,“TheBenefitsOfBeingPresent:MindfulnessAndItsRoleInPsychologicalWell-Being,”JournalofPersonalityandSocialPsychology84,no.4(2003);822–848.100H.Bai,(“BeyondEducatedMind:TowardsaPedagogyofMindfulness,”inUnfoldingBodymind:ExploringPossibilitiesThroughEducation,eds.B.Hockings,J.Haskell,andW.Linds(Brandon,VT:TheFoundationforEducationalRenewal,2001),86–99.101BrenéBrown,DaringGreatly:HowtheCouragetobeVulnerableTransformsTheWayWeLive,Love,Parent,andLead(NewYork:Penguin,2012).102L.E.PalichandD.RayBagby,“UsingCognitiveTheoryToExplainEntrepreneurialRisk-Taking:ChallengingConventionalWisdom,”JournalofBusinessVenturing10,no.6(1995):425–438,doi:10.1016/0883-9026(95)00082-J

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noneofthepeopleresponsibleactedtopreventit.103Itiswellestablishedthatrisk-takingishigherinadolescentsthaninchildrenoradults,104andhigherinmalesthaninfemales.105Itisalsoclearthatthecapacityforcourageisnotfixed,andcanbedevelopedthroughappropriatelearningexperiences.Couragecanbeconsideredasubjectiveexperience,whereanindividualovercomes fear and chooses to take action in the face of uncertainty. In the courageousmindset there are three positive intrapersonal traits that onemust develop: openness toexperience,conscientiousness,andself-evaluationstrategiesthatpromoteself-efficacy.106

ResilienceInitsmostbasicform,resiliencecanbethoughtofasanabilityorsetofqualitiesthatallowonetoovercomeobstacles. Itoftenrefers totheabilitiesofcertain individuals tosucceedwhereothersintheircircumstancescouldnot.Inapaperaboutthehistoryofresilienceandthe continuing discussion on its nature, resilience is defined as “a dynamic processencompassing positive adaptation within the context of significant adversity.”107 Thedesignation“dynamicprocess”highlightsthefactthatresilienceisawordusedforamultitudeoffactorsthatallinfluencewhetherornotsomeonewillsucceedinthefaceofadversity.Oneofthecontributingelementsofresilienceisthenotionofgrit.Inherseminalstudyregardinggrit—definedas“perseveranceandpassionforlong-termgoals”—AngelaDuckworthandhercolleagues found that “grit accounted for an average of 4% of the variance in successoutcomes.”104Thethreemainfactorsthathavebeenidentifiedinschools,communities,andsocial support systems as positively influencing resilience in youth are: 1. Caringrelationships.2. Communication of high expectations.3. Opportunities for meaningfulinvolvementandparticipation.EthicsIt isnow,whenconfidenceinbusinessisunderminedandindividualsdistrustoneanother,essential more than ever that businesses restore their relations with customers andemployeesbysteppinguptotheethicalplate.Inthebook‘FiveMindsfortheFuture’HowardGardner talksabout thecompetenciesyoungpeopleneed tohave in the21st centuryandgoing forward.Heemphasizes the importanceof cultivatinganethicalmind if individuals,businessesandsocietyaretothrive.Asyoungpeoplegointobusinesstoday,thetemptationto skirt ethics is mounting as we live in a time of intense pressure on individuals andorganizationstocutcorners,pursuetheirowninterests,andforgetabouttheeffectoftheirbehaviouronothers.Therealtestofanindividual’s—oracompany’s—ethicalfibreiswhat

103C.R.RateandR.J.Sternberg,“WhenGoodPeopleDoNothing:AFailureOfCourage,”ResearchCompaniontotheDysfunctionalWorkplace.(EdwardElgarPublishingLimited,2007):3–21 104L.Steinberg,“RiskTakinginAdolescence:NewPerspectivesFromBrainandBehavioralScience,”CurrentDirectionsinPsychologicalScience16,no.2,(2007):55–59105J.P.Byrnes,D.C.Miller,andW.D.Schafer,“GenderDifferencesinRiskTaking:AMeta-Analysis,”125no.3(1999):367–383.106S.T.Hannah,P.J.Sweeney,andP.B.Lester,“TowardACourageousMindset:TheSubjectiveActAndExperienceOfCourage,”TheJournalofPositivePsychology2,no.2(2007):129–135107S.S.Luthar,D.Cicchetti,andB.Becker,“TheConstructofResilience:ACriticalEvaluationandGuidelinesforFutureWork,”ChildDevelopment71(2000):543–562.

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happenswhen therearepotentpressures. Therefore, it is important todevelop students’senseofintegrityandcultivatetheirethicalcompasstohelpthemnavigatethroughnumerousdilemmastheywillfaceintheworkingenvironment.

Ethicsasa teachablecharacterquality is informed in largepartby the literatureonmoraldevelopment,pioneeredbyJeanPiagetandJohnDewey,andexpandedbyLawrenceKohlbergandCarolGilligan.Themainideaisthatchildrennaturallyprogressthroughstagesofmoralreasoning, from pre- conventional (obedience and punishment, self-interest orientations),through conventional (interpersonal accord and conformity, authority and social-ordermaintaining),topost-conventional(socialcontractorientation,universalethicalprinciples).108

John Dewey proposed that “education is thework of supplying the conditionswhichwillenable the psychological functions to mature in the freest and fullest manner.”106Environments that successfully encourage moral development are those that provideopportunities for group participation, shared decision-making, and the assumption ofresponsibilityfortheconsequencesofactions.109

LeadershipEmployers increasingly report that leadership skills aremorehighly valued than academicachievement.Researchshowsthathigh-schoolleadersaremorelikelytooccupymanagerialoccupations as adults, and leadership skills command a higher wage premium withinmanagerialoccupationsthaninotherjobs.Theseresultssuggestthat leadershipskillhasacomponent that is determined before high school entry, as well as a component that isfosteredbyoccupyingleadershippositionsduringhighschool.Theneedfororganizationstohaveeffectiveleadersisundisputed,howeverthenotionofwhatisleadershipisshifting.JimCollins, who has spent twenty years studying how some companies achieve superlativeperformance and focused on leadership, found out that successful leaders do not fit thetraditionalmodel of a ‘charismatic hero’. Rather they are individuals that blend personalhumilitywithintenseprofessionalwillandenormousambitionnotforthemselvesbutfortheorganization.3.4Meta-Learning—HowwereflectandadaptThefourthandfinaldimensionoftheCCRframeworkisonethatliesoverarchingtotheotherthree.Meta-Learning concerns the processes related to reflecting on and adjusting one’slearning.Itincludesmetacognition(predicting,monitoring,andevaluatingone’slearning),aswellas internalizingaGrowthMindsetaboutone’scapacities.Atthemoment,theOECD’sPISA governing board is contemplating meta-learning as the fourth dimension becauselearninghowtolearnisoneofthemostimportantthingemployersarelookingfor.110Meta-Learningisessentialforcreatinglifelonglearninghabitsandthelearningoftheother 108L.Kohlberg,ThePhilosophyOfMoralDevelopment:MoralStagesAndTheIdeaOfJustice(EssaysOnMoralDevelopment,Volume1)(SanFrancisco:HarperandRow,1981)109L.Kohlberg,“MoralStages,Moralization:theCognitiveDevelopmentalApproach,”In:T.Lickona,ed.MoralDevelopmentAndBehavior(NewYork:Holt,Rinehart,Winston,1976),110PISAGoverningBoardmeeting,2018,OECDParis.(QuotebyCharlesFadel).

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threedimensionsandensuringthetransferoflearningbeyonditsoriginalcontext.ThemostsuccessfulstudentsveryoftenalreadyengageinaproductivevirtuouscycleofMeta-Learning,and explicitly encouraging this dimension can help all students in all areas of learning,throughout their lifetimes and across their careers. In a world requiring constant andincreasinglyfastadaptation,deliberatelyhighlightingthisdimension–ratherthansubsumingitandthusoftenneglectingit–iscritical.MetacognitionThebesthedgeagainstcontinuouschanges ismetacognition, theawarenessofone’sownlearning, reflectionandcognitiveability. It isessential foractivating transference,buildingexpertise,andestablishinglifelonglearninghabits.Metacognitionfor learning,oftencalled‘learningtolearn’,referstoastudent’sabilitytodeterminehowtoapproachaproblemortask,monitorhisorherowncomprehension,andevaluateprogresstowardcompletion.111Itunderpins all the dimensions of knowledge and skillsmentioned above.David Conley tiesmetacognitiondirectlytocollegereadinessandusesthetermtoencompassmanyoftheothercompetencies112.Learninghowtolearnbroadlyincludesrelatedcompetencies,suchasself-regulation, which has been shown to predict achievement, attainment, and workforcesuccess.113 There has been consensus among CCR, DeSeCo and EU reference frameworksabouttheimportanceofmetacognitionforfuturesuccess.AsAlvinTofflersaid,theilliterateofthe21stcenturywon’tbethosewhocannotreadandwritebutthosewhocannotlearn,unlearnandrelearn114.Therefore,itisvitalthatschoolsdevelopstudentsintolifelonglearnersthatareconstantlyseekingnewknowledge.ResGrowthMindsetAccordingtoCarolDweck’sresearch,therearetwobroadcategoriesofthesementalmodelsforsuccess.115Inafixedmindset,peoplebelievetheirbasicqualities,liketheirintelligenceortalent,aresimplyfixedtraits.Theyspendtheirtimedocumentingtheirintelligenceortalentinstead of developing them. They also believe that talent alone creates success—withouteffort.Thisleadstoself-defeatingpatternsofbehaviorthatthestudentsaren’tevenawaretheyareengagingin.Inagrowthmindset,ontheotherhand,peoplerecognizethattalentisjustthestartingpoint,andbelievethatabilitiescanbedevelopedthroughhardwork.Thisviewcreatesaloveoflearningforthesakeoflearning,andaresiliencethatisessentialforsuccessinlargeendeavours. 111(LandineandStewart1998;VrugtandOort2008).112LearningStrategiesasMetacognitiveFactors:ACriticalRevie,Conley,(2013).113RedefiningCollegeReadiness,Conley,(D.2007)114Powershift:Knowledge,Wealth,andPowerattheEdgeofthe21stCentury,Toffler,A.(1990).115Mindset:TheNewPsychologyofSuccess,Dweck,C.(2007).

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PartIV.CurriculumContentMapping(CCM)andGapAnalysis

Thecurriculumcontentmapping(CCM)istheprocessofreviewingacurriculumtoidentifyandaddressacademicgaps,redundancies,andmisalignmentforpurposesofimprovingtheoverallcoherenceofacourseofstudyand,byextension,itseffectiveness.116Buildingonthetrendsanalysisandidentificationofemployabilitycompetenciesbasedonit,the CCM exercise has been designed to explore how Competencies, “skills” (e.g., criticalthinking, collaboration, creativity, communication), “character” (e.g., resilience, curiosity,ethics,etc.)and“meta-learning”(e.g.,metacognition,growthmindset)areaddressedintheCPandDPcurricula.Furthermore,itisexpectedthattheCCMwillsupportIB’scurriculumdevelopment/redesignprocessesbyillustratinghowparticularcompetenciesaremore/lesscentraltocorepartsoftheDPandCPprogrammes.Followingthemappingprocess,IBmightbeabletousethedata:

• Toconsidertheextent(ie,breadthanddepth)towhichtheircurriculafosterdifferentaspectsofcompetenciesconsideredessentialforworkandlifeinthefuture,

• For comparativeanalysiswhenconsideringhowdifferentpartsof theprogrammesincludeparticularaspectsofcompetenciesintheirlearningareas/subjects,

• Asavaluableresourcetoinformfuturecurriculumdevelopment/redesigninitiatives.

4.1.MethodsThispartofthepaperdescribesinfurtherdetailshowwasthecurriculumcontentmappingand gap analysis conducted. Initially, the studied competencies were selected during theliterature review of global trends. The ‘competencies’ part below outlines the identifiedcompetencies. Thereafter, the key IB documents for both DP and CP were selected andanalysedwithaimtoidentifytheextentwithwhichthemaincompetenciesareincludedinit.The ‘content area’ lists all the selected and reviewed documents and ‘education level’provides more information about the studied education level. Lastly, the ‘process’ partpresentsmoreinformationabouttheeachofthethreephasesoftheprocessandgivesmoreinformationaboutwhatwasdoneineachphase.CompetenciesTheCCMprocesswillenabletheIBDiplomaandCareer-relatedprogrammestoidentifytheextenttowhich21stcenturycompetencies(specificskills,characterandmeta-learning)areincluded in their curriculum. The scope of the competencies in focus for this exercise (ie,particularaspectsofskills,characterandmeta-learningwhichstudentsneedtobeequippedwithtothriveinandshapetheworldinfuture)wasselectedbasedontheliteraturereviewofglobaltrendsandtheirimpactonthelabourmarketoutlinedinthefirstsectionofthisreport.

116CurriculumAnalysis:DraftProposal,EDU2030,OECD(2016).

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Therefore,theselectedprioritycompetenciestobestudiedinthisexercisewere:• Creativity• Criticalthinking• Communication• Collaboration• Mindfulness• Curiosity• Courage• Resilience• Ethics• Leadership• Metacognition• GrowthMindset

ContentareasTheworkonreviewingthedifferentIBcurriculardocumentswasundertakentosystematicallyidentify the appearance of the selected competencies listed above. Termswith the samemeaningorevaluatedassimilarinnaturewereanalysedandcalculatedtowardsthefinalheatmapbasedontheirlevelofcontribution.

ThedocumentsreviewedforbothDPandCParepartoftherespectivecorecurriculaandwereselectedbecausetheyarefollowedbyallstudents,whileothersubjectsareelectedanddifferinuptake.ThemostrelevantdocumentsacrossIBphilosophy,DPandCPwereincludedandreviewed.Thetypesofdocumentsincludeguides,teachersupportmaterials(TSM)andFromprinciplesintopractice.Guidesareusedasaframeworkforplanning,teachingandassessmentofthecourses.TSMsaimtoassistthecoordinatorsinorganizingtheprogramme,clarifythelearning outcomes and serve as support teacher materials. From principles into practicefocusesontheprogrammesasawhole;itexplorestheeducationalprinciplesandpracticesthatneedtobenurturedinschoolssothatasolidfoundationforasuccessfulDPandCPcanbeestablishedandmaintained.

Thefollowingdocumentswerereviewed:IBPhilosophy(applicableforbothprogrammes):

• IBApproachestoteachingandlearning(ATL)• IBlearnerprofile

DiplomaProgramme(DP):• DiplomaProgramme:Fromprinciplesintopractice• Creativity,activity,serviceguide(CAS)• Creativity,activity,serviceteachersupportmaterial(TSM)• Extendedessayguide• Theoryofknowledgeguide(TOK)• Theoryofknowledgeteachersupportmaterial

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Career-relatedProgramme(CP):• Career-relatedProgramme:Fromprinciplesintopractice• Personalandprofessionalskillsguide• Reflectiveprojectguide• Reflectiveprojectteachersupportmaterial• Servicelearningguide• Languagedevelopmentguide

EducationlevelThescopeofthetargeteducationlevelwassecondaryeducationwithfocusontheDPandCPcurricula.However,thesecompetenciesmightbealsodevelopedinearlierstages,throughtheMiddleYears(MYP)andPrimaryYears(PYP)Programmeswhichmightdifferintermsofthetypeofcompetenciesandintensitywithwhichtheyarebeingdeveloped.Sincecertaincompetencies might be better acquired/developed at certain ages/grades as part of asequenceoflearning(coherenceofcurriculum),itmightbeimportanttoconsiderwhatisthe‘intended sequencing’ of development of these competencies throughout these variousprogrammesinthefuture.ProcessTheCCMexerciseisathree-phasedprocess.Thesephasesare:

• Phase1:ReviewingtheDPandCPcurriculum• Phase2:Mapping the coreaspectsof theDPandCPcurriculumCP to identify the

extenttowhichthedifferentareasfosteremployabilityskills• Phase3:Reportandsynthetizefindings

Phase1-ReviewingtheDPandCPcurriculaThereareseveralcriteriathatweretakenintoconsiderationwhenselectingthedocumentsforreviewinbothprogrammes.Thecriteriainclude:

• toensurethataccurateandcomparable information isobtained fromthemappingprocessinbothprogrammes

• toensuretheanalysisisundertakenatanappropriatelevelofspecificityinrecognitionthatvariousareasmightdifferincompositionacrossprogrammes.

Phase2–Curriculumcontentmapping(CCM)Thisphaseinvolvedmappingofthevariouslearningareastoidentifytheextenttowhichtheselectedcompetenciesareaddressed ineachdocumentandrespectiveprogramme.Threelevelsofdegreeintheinter-relationshipwereconsidered(Figure29).Toclassifyintothesethreelevels,thefollowingcriteriaweretakenintoconsideration.

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Figure29.DegreeofacompetencycontributionDegree Contribution CriteriaDegree3 Large

contributionMaintargetofthelearningarea;thecompetencyisclearlywritten/spelledoutasthemaindevelopmenttarget.

Degree2 Mediumcontribution

Sub target of the learning area, the competency orassociated competency is written as a part of thedevelopmenttarget.

Degree1 Lowcontribution

Not targeted in this learning area, the competency is notspecificallyincludedasadevelopmenttarget.

Thedataobtainedfromthisanalysisarerepresentedthroughthe‘heatmap’below(Figure/30). This map is used to illustrate the breadth and depth that selected employabilitycompetenciesare fostered inandacross learningareasofbothDPandCP curricula. SuchcompetencyspecificheatmapprovidesausefuloverviewofspecificlearningareasacrossIBcurriculumlandscape.Phase3-ReportandsynthetizeThisphaseaimstosummarizethefindingsoftheCCMandreporttheresultsinthesectionbelow. It outlines in further detail each competency and the extent in which they areimbeddedinbothDPandCP.4.2.Results

TheIBdocumentswereanalysedandtheoccurrenceofcompetencieswasidentifiedbasedonthedegreeofcompetencycontributionineachdocumentwhichresultedintheheatmapbelow (Figure 30). Moreover, quantitative breakdown of types of contribution gives anoverview of the extent with which these competencies are covered in both DP and CPdocuments.Thissectionalsodescribesindetailhowspecificcompetenciesareexpressedineachrevieweddocument.

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Figure30.Large,mediumcontributionandlowcontributionincoverage

Figure30providesanoverviewoftypesofcompetenciesfosteredthemost,aswellasthetype of category being the most represented. The two are evidently correlated and thecategorywhichismainlyrepresentedis‘skills’duetothefactthatcompetencieswithinthiscategoryarerepresentedthemost(eg,communication,creativity).Ontheotherhand,thecategoryof‘character’islessrepresentedwithgapsincoverageofcertaincompetencies(eg,curiosity,resilience).Thequantitativebreakdown(Figure31)providesanoverviewofhowmanytimesandhowextensivelyeachcompetencyisrepresentedacrossalltherevieweddocuments inbothDPandCP.Forexample,communicationisrepresentedacrosstwelvedifferentdocumentswithlarge contribution, one documentwithmedium contribution and one documentwith lowcontribution(asperthecontributiondefinitioninFigure29).

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Figure31.Quantitativebreakdownoftypesofcontribution

4.2.1Largecontribution–TopfourcompetenciesCommunicationandethicsaretwoskillsthatappeartobethemostrepresentedacrossall15documentsreviewed,equallyincludedinbothDPandCP.Forcommunication,12outof15documentshaveclearlyspelledouttheaimtodevelopthiscompetencywhileforethicsithasbeen11outof15documents.CommunicationCommunicationskillsarenotonlyimportantinIBprogrammesbutarealsoanessentialpartof a wider dynamic in the learning community: they help to form and maintain goodrelationshipsbetweenstudents,andbetweenstudentsandadults.Furthermore,beingableto communicate well contributes to the development of students’ self-confidence andenhances their prospects, as communication skills are a critical ingredient of success inworkinglife.DPCoreelementsoftheDiplomaProgrammearetheextendedessay,creativity,activity,service(CAS)andtheoryofknowledge(TOK)whicharemandatoryforallthestudentsgoingthroughthisprogramme.Theextendedessaycourserequiresstudentstodemonstratetheirabilitytocommunicateona research topicof their choice ina specificway: inanacademicpaper.Theywillneed toformulateargumentsclearlyandcoherently,aswellasdraftandproofreadtheirownworkand thus develop strong written communication skills. In developing their ‘researcher’sreflectionspace’studentscanusearangeofdifferentcommunicationtechniquestorecord

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their thoughts, ideas, progress, timelines and arguments. Thesemay includemindmaps,blogs, annotated articles or images so students become well versed in using variouscommunicationtechniquestoexpresstheirideas.117The creativity, activity, service (CAS) part of the programme provides a framework thatenables students to develop their ability to communicate and collaborate with others.StudentscanshowtheevidenceofparticipatinginCASthroughformsofdocumentationsuchasphotos,files,planningdocuments,emails,meetingminutes,certificates,videos,art,musicandjournals.118IntheTheoryofknowledge(TOK)course,studentsarerequiredbytheTOKassessmenttaskstocommunicatetheirunderstandingandperspectiveinbothoralandwrittenform.Studentsalsostudythelanguagethatisusedtodevelopabodyofknowledge,sotheylearnwhatgiveslanguageitspoweraswellaswhatmaycausefailuresofcommunication.119CPThe course on personal and professional skills includes a specific theme on effectivecommunication. This themeexploresa varietyof skills and literacies tobroaden students’capabilitiesascommunicatorsinpersonalandprofessionalsituationsandcontextssuchasforexampleinterpersonalskills,literaciesandself-expression.Partofinterpersonalawarenessisactivelisteningandwithinliteraciesthereareforexamplemediaanddigitalliteracy.Aspartofself-expressionthereis:writingforpurpose,presentationskillsandinterviewskills.120The reflective project is intended to promote high-level research, writing and extendedcommunicationskills,aswellaspresentastructuredandcoherentargument.Thethemeisagain effective communication with a focus on interpersonal communication, writing,presentationandITskillsinordertostrengthenstudents’abilitytopresentastructuredandcoherentproject.Studentsarethenassessedbasedonthefollowingcriteria:thewayinwhichthestudentpresentsastructuredandcoherentprojectthroughtheircommunicationstyle,using appropriate terminology accurately and consistently, assisting to convey ideas andconceptsclearly.121IBPhilosophyCommunicationskillsarealso imbedded intheapproachestoteachingand learning(ATL)andmakeoneofthefivemaincategories.Thedocumentoutlinesseveralsimplestrategiesthatteacherscanusetohelpstudentsdeveloptheircommunicationskillssuchasforexample

117Extendedessayguide,InternationalBaccalaureateOrganization2015118Creativity,activity,serviceguide,InternationalBaccalaureateOrganization2015119DiplomaProgrammeCore:TheoryofKnowledge,InternationalBaccalaureateOrganization2014120Personalandprofessionalskillsguide,InternationalBaccalaureateOrganization121Reflectiveprojectguide,InternationalBaccalaureateOrganization,2016

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askingopen-endedquestions,havinginformalconversations,challenginghurtfulcomments,encouragingphysicalcuesandmodellingagoodconversation.TheIBlearnerprofilealsoaimstodevelopcommunicatorswhounderstandandexpressideasand information confidently and creatively inmore thanone language and in a variety ofmodesofcommunication.122EthicsDPIn the CAS guide, the emphasis is on helping students to develop their own identities, inaccordancewiththeethicalprinciplesembodiedintheIBmissionstatementandtheIBlearnerprofile.CASprovidesstudentswithopportunitiestoengagewiththelearnerprofileofbeingprincipled. One of the learning outcomes within CAS is to develop students’ ability torecognizeandconsidertheethicsofchoicesandactions.123Attheendoftheprogramme,students are expected to explain the social influence on their ethical identity, take intoaccounttheculturalcontextwhenmakingaplanorethicaldecision,identifywhatisneededtoknowinordertomakeanethicaldecision,articulateethicalprinciplesandapproachestoethicaldecisions.Theyareaskedaswelltoshowaccountabilityforchoicesandactions,beingawareoftheconsequencesofchoicesandactionsregardingself,othersandthecommunityandintegratetheprocessofreflectionwhenfacedwithethicaldecisions.TheCASteachersupportmaterial (TSM) supportsteachers inguidingstudentstodevelopstrong service learning through creating for example an environmental community group,getting involved in a beach club, providing peer tutoring to junior students or visiting anorphanagewithregularity.Studentsareexpectedtodemonstrateengagementwithissuesofglobalsignificance,getinvolvedinCASprojectsandaddressglobalissuesinalocal,nationalorinternationalcontext.InTOK,ethicsisoneoftheeightmainareasofknowledge(AOK);itisconsideredtobe'sharedknowledge'alongwitharts.SomepotentialareasofstudymentionedwithinTOKisethicaldilemmas,theoryofethics(Kantianethics,virtueethics,utilitarian),emotionandreasoninethics,ethicallanguage.PractitionersofAOKareencouragedtoconsiderethicallimitsonthesortofinvestigationstheyundertakeandexperimentstheyperform.Withinnaturalsciencesstudentsneedtoaskaquestion:Shouldtherebeethicalconstraintsonthepursuitofscientificknowledge?124Intheextendedessaycourse,studentsmustalsoensurethattheyareawareofanyIBpolicyrelatedtoethicalpractice(e.g.,academichonesty)whenundertakingresearch.125 122TheIBLearnerProfile,InternationalBaccalaureateOrganization2013123Creativity,activity,serviceguide,InternationalBaccalaureateOrganization2015 124DiplomaProgrammeCore:TheoryofKnowledge,InternationalBaccalaureateOrganization2014125Extendedessayguide,InternationalBaccalaureateOrganization2015

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CPThe Career-related Programme provides an excellent opportunity for ethical educationconceivedasinvolvingprinciples,attitudesandcodesofbehaviour.Whileethicalprinciplesare alsoembodied in the IBmission statement and learnerprofile, theprogramme’s coreemphasisisonhelpingstudentstodeveloptheirownidentitiesandbeliefs.TheCPutilizesthepersonalandprofessionalskillscoursefortheexplorationandapplicationof ethics which aims to support students’ understanding of ethics. Through this coursestudents are introduced to ethical dilemmas and case studies in applied and professionalethics,becomeawareofandrespondeffectivelytoethicaldilemmasandexplorewhatisrightandwrong.126Inthereflectiveproject,oneofthegoalsoftheprogrammeistoengageinpersonalinquiry,actionandreflectiononaspecificethicaldilemma.Studentsareassessedontheirabilitytoselect and explore an ethical dilemma involved in an issue, which they are meant to becontextualizedinlightoftheircareer-relatedstudy,throughcarefulformulationofafocusedandsystematicresearchquestion.Studentsarealsorequiredtocollectevidencerelatedtotheissue.127Theaimofservice learning is todevelopasenseofcaringabout,anda responsibility for,others.Studentsareaskedtocontributetosocietybyimprovingthelivesofpeopleorassistingtheenvironmentoranimals.Studentsareencouragedtobecivicallyengagedwhichreferstobecominginvolvedincommunityissuesanddevelopingpro-socialbehaviours.Thiscanleadtoanincreasedawarenessofcommunityconnections,communityproblems,citizenshipandsocial responsibility,which in turnallowsthestudents todevelopanunderstandingof therelationshipsbetweenlocalandglobalconcerns.128IBPhilosophyThe IB approaches to learningdocumentmakes a reference to the ethical dimension byreferringtostudents‘being“thinkers”’whichisexplicitlyidentifiedasoneoftheIBlearnerprofile attributes. It is defined in terms of exercising initiative in applying thinking skillscriticallyandcreativelytorecognizeandapproachcomplexproblems,andmakereasoned,ethicaldecisions.IntheIBlearnerprofile,thegoaloutlinedistodevelop‘principled’students,whoactwithintegrityandhonesty,withastrongsenseoffairness,justiceandrespectforthedignityandthe rights of people everywhere. They take responsibility for their own actions and the

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consequencesthataccompanythem.Inadditiontoprinciples,theIBlearnerprofilealsoaimstodevelop‘caring’studentswhoshowempathy,compassionandrespecttowardstheneedsandfeelingsofothersandhaveapersonalcommitmenttoservice.129Mindfulnessandcriticalthinkingaretwoothercompetenciesthatarestronglyrepresentedoverall.However,thereislargercontributiontomindfulnessintheCPinwhichitappearsinfiveoutofsixrevieweddocumentsasopposedtoDPprogrammewherethelargecontributionoccursonlyintwooutofsixdocuments.Ontheotherhand,allthreedocumentsreviewedwithin IB philosophyhave clearly spelled out the development ofmindfulness and criticalthinkingasamaingoal.AcrossboththeCPandDP,criticalthinkingseemstobemoreorlessequallyrepresented.MindfulnessAsFigure28abovesuggests,thecharacterqualitymindfulnessisrelatedwithmanyassociatedqualities and concepts such as for example self-awareness, self-management and self-actualization among others. This broader understanding of mindfulness was taken intoconsiderationwheninterpretingitsinclusioninDPandCP.DPCAS course provide a framework that enables students to increase self-awareness andenhancetheirpersonalandinterpersonaldevelopment.Itservesasajourneyofdiscoveryofselfandothersthatdevelopspersonalityanddrivespersonalgrowth.Formanystudents,CASisaprofoundand life-changingexperience.Each individualstudenthasadifferentstartingpointanddifferentneedsandgoals.ThroughoutCAS,studentsareguidedtorecognizethevalueof reflection, so theycancapture theirexperiencewithmoremeaningandpersonalconnection.130TheCASTSM,guidesteacherstoheightenstudentawarenessandremindstudentsthattheyneedtoenjoylifewhiledevelopinginternational-mindedness.Studentsneedtoseethattheworldneedsthemtoconnectoutsideoftheclassroomawayfromtheirbooks.Studentsaregivenanopportunitytobeinvolvedintheschool’sUNESCOclub,wheretheyareintroducedto differentworldwide and local events. Students are also encouraged to join theModelUnitedNationstripsabroad.TosupportteachersindeliveringCAS,IBhasdevelopedaframeworkofsixlearningoutcomesthatassistswiththeassessmentoftheassociatedcompetencies.Afirstlearningoutcomeisconnected to mindfulness and calls for an awareness of students’ own strengths andweaknessesandanidentificationofareasforgrowth.Itisdetailedoutinthefollowingway: 129TheIBLearnerProfile,InternationalBaccalaureateOrganization2013130Creativity,activity,serviceguide,InternationalBaccalaureateOrganization2015

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Thestudent:

• isawareofownstrengthsandweaknesses• isopentoimprovementandgrowthopportunities• isabletoproposeexperiencesaccordingtoowninterestsandtalents• iswillingtoparticipateindifferentexperiences• isabletoundertakeathoughtfulself-evaluation• isable to see themselvesas individualswithvariousabilitiesandskills, somemore

developedthanothers.Learning outcome 6 asks students to demonstrate engagement with issues of globalsignificanceandrecognizetheglobalimplicationsoflocalissues.As the extended essay is an independent task, it requires students to self-manage bydevelopingorganizationandaffectiveskills, includingmindfulness,perseverance,resilienceandself-motivation.Theprocessofresearchingandwritingtheextendedessayrepresentsthelearnerprofileinaction.Theextendedessayprovidesstudentswiththeopportunitytobecomemoreinternationallymindedbyengagingwiththelocalandglobalcommunitiesontopicsofpersonalinquiry.131The TOK TSM fosters international mindedness and as part of adapting an internationalperspective is taking into consideration that being part of a certain group shapes ourperspectiveontheworldthatcouldbequitedifferent ifwewereamemberofadifferentgroup. In TOK, the ways of knowing (sense perception, emotion, language, reason,imagination,faith,intuitionandmemory),areacentralpartofthecourseandinfluenceeachandeveryreflectionthatstudentsmake.132CPInthedocumentCareer-relatedProgramme:Fromprinciplesintopractice,IBmentionsitsaimtodevelopthoughtfulandactivecitizensandactiveparticipantsintheirowninterculturallearning.133Thecourseinpersonalandprofessionalskillsrecognizespersonalstrengthsandidentifywaysto overcome challenges within the personal development theme. Part of personaldevelopment is also self-awareness and self-management. The theme of Interculturalunderstandingemphasizestheimportanceofculturalidentity,diversityandengagementinarangeofpersonalandprofessionalsituationsandcontexts.Partofinterculturalunderstandingis cultural identity,adversityandengagement.Thecombinationof theself-awarenessandinterculturalunderstandingthemesfostersthedevelopmentofmindfulness.

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Thereflectiveprojectaimstodevelopanengagementwithlocaland/orglobalcommunities.The themeof intercultural understandingdirectly linkswith students’ need todevelop anappreciationofhowculturalcontextsmayaffectdifferentperspectivesonanethicaldilemma.Partof it isalsoanassessmentof theability toanalysedifferentperspectives,showinganawarenessandunderstandingoftheimpactofthedilemmaonaglobalorlocalcommunity.134The service learning component provides opportunities for students to understand theircapacitytomakeameaningfulcontributiontotheircommunityandsocietyandgainadeeperunderstanding of themselves through meaningful reflection. Service learning fosters civicdevelopmentwhich refers tobecoming involved in community issuesanddevelopingpro-social behaviours. This can lead to an increased awareness of community connections,communityproblems,citizenshipandsocialresponsibility.Thisallowsthestudentstodevelopanunderstandingoftherelationshipsbetweenlocalandglobalconcerns.135IBphilosophyIn theATLcourse,mindfulness is includedunder self-management skillswhich consistsoforganizationskillsandaffectiveskills(eg,managingstateofmind,self-motivation,resilience,mindfulness,etc.)136Oneof the teaching ideas is toexplore thepossibilities for improvingstudents’ concentration through training in mindfulness or other similar techniques. Therationalebehindthisisthatinhelpingstudentslearnhowto“stayinthemoment”canhelpthemtoovercomedistractions,increaseattentionandimproveconcentration.Ofalltheskillsstudents should develop, learning to concentrate is singled out to be one of the mostimportantanditmaybeworthwhileputtingsometrainingintodeveloping.TheIBlearnerprofilementionstheimportanceofdeveloping‘reflective’studentsandgivesthoughtfulconsiderationtostudents’ownlearningandexperience.Theyshouldbeabletoassessandunderstandtheirstrengthsandlimitationsinordertosupporttheirlearningandpersonaldevelopment.137CriticalthinkingDPTheDiplomaProgramme:Fromprinciplesintopracticeguidepromotescriticalreflectionandthinkingthroughanalysis,synthesisandevaluation.138

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CAS course continues to develop students’ ability to engage in critical reflection, offeringincreasinglysophisticatedopportunitiesforstudentstoanalysetheirownthinking,effortandperformance.Somereflectionquestionsinclude:HowdoesthisCASexperienceallowmetobecomeagenuineinquirer?TowhatextentdomyCASexperiencesencouragecreativeandcriticalthinking?139The extended essay course is perhaps the most inquiry-based activity that students willundertake, especially given that it is a completely open-ended task, directed by studentinterest.Throughtheirresearch,studentscanlearnnotonlyaboutthetopicoftheirresearch,methodology,andcriticalthinking,buttheycanalsolearnimportanttransferableskillssuchas timemanagement, perseverance, resilience, and decision-making. The extended essayembodiestheessenceofan IBeducation indeveloping inquiring,critical, lifelong learners.One of the assessment criteria for the extended essay is critical thinking (eg, research,analyses,discussionandevaluation).140TOKisacourseaboutcriticalthinkingandinquiringintotheprocessofknowing,ratherthanaboutlearningaspecificbodyofknowledge.ItisacoreelementwhichallDiplomaProgrammestudentsundertakeandtowhichallschoolsarerequiredtodevoteatleast100hoursofclasstime.141CPThe personal and professional skills course contributes to the development of thinkingprocesses.Thisthemeprovidesanopportunityforstudentstoexploreandapplyavarietyofthinkingprocessestoarangeofpersonalandprofessionalsituationsandcontextsincludingcritical thinking,creative thinkingandapplicationof thinking. Partofcritical thinking is tocompare, analyse and synthetize, and evaluate. There is also application thinking whichconsistsofpracticalthinking,problemsolving,implementingandadapting.Thereflectiveprojectalsocontributestodevelopmentofcriticalthinkingskills.Thetopicsofethicalthinking,criticalthinking,creativethinking,problem-solvingandlateralthinkinghavedirectapplicationtothewaysinwhichstudentslearnandengagewiththereflectiveproject.Italsoassessesthestudent’sabilitytoselectandapplyappropriateresearchmethodsandcollectandselectrelevantinformationfromavarietyofsources,showinganunderstandingof bias and validity. This criterion assesses the student’s logical reasoning, the ability tointerpret, analyseandevaluatematerial, and the student’s ability to synthesizeandmakeconnections,linkingideasandevidenceandweighingthemupasnecessary.Itassessesalsothe student’s reasoning processes and the ability to present a coherent and sustained

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argumentandpersonalvoice.Finally,itassessestheappropriatenessoffindingsandopinionsrelatedbacktotheresearchquestion.142IBphilosophyWithinATL,DPsubjectsplaceapremiumonthedevelopmentofhigher-orderthinkingskillsratherthanonsimplememorizationofcontent.143ThisisclearlyapparentintheaimsofDPcourses;forexample,oneoftheaimsofallIndividualsandSocietiescoursesisto“developinthestudentthecapacitytoidentify,toanalysecriticallyandtoevaluatetheories,conceptsandargumentsaboutthenatureandactivitiesoftheindividualandsociety”.Thehigher-orderthinkingskillsDPsubjectsfostercanbeseeninthecommandtermsusedinDPexaminationpapers,wherestudentsareaskedto“analyse”,“evaluate”,“compare”,andsoon.MostDPsubjectguidesprovidealistofcommandterms,anditisimportantthatteachersfamiliarizestudents with these terms so that students have a clear understanding of what they areexpectedtodemonstrateintheirresponses.144TheIBlearnerprofilealsomentionsanintentiontodevelopstudentsinto‘thinkers’.Thinkersexerciseinitiativeinapplyingthinkingskillscriticallyandcreativelytorecognizeandapproachcomplexproblems,andmakereasoned,ethicaldecisions.1454.2.2Mediumcontribution–MiddlefourcompetenciesMetacognitionandcollaborationarebothrepresentedinamoderatedegreeacrosstheDPand CP. While metacognition is represented in a slightly stronger manner in the CP,collaborationismoresalientintheDP.OutofthreemaindocumentsreviewedregardingIBphilosophymetacognitionandcollaborationhavebeenclearlyspelledoutonlythroughtheIBApproachestoteachingandlearning(ATL).MetacognitionDPThetermthinkingskillsreferstoaclusterofalargenumberofrelatedskills,andintheDPparticularfocusisplacedonskillssuchasmetacognition,reflectionandcriticalthinking.In CAS, students learn how to set challenging goals and develop the commitment andperseverancetoachievethem.TheCASstagesprovideaframeworkthatenablesstudentstolearn about learning and employ different learning styles. Through imbedded reflection,students describe what happened, express feelings, generate ideas, and raise questions.

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ReflectioncanoccuratanytimeduringCAStofurtherunderstanding,toassistwithrevisingplans,tolearnfromtheexperience,andtomakeexplicitconnectionsbetweentheirgrowth,accomplishments,andthelearningoutcomesforpersonalawareness.Reflectionmayleadtonewaction.Havingestablishedaneffectiveunderstandingofthefourelementsofreflection,studentsdevelophigher-orderthinkingskillsbycriticallyexaminingthoughts, feelingsandactions,therebysynthesizingtheirlearningandfosteringtheirmetacognitiveprocesses.146TheCASTSMmentions that IBhave recentlybegun toopenup thedoorsof reflectionbyaskingstudentstouseothermethodsbesideswrittenreflectionstoprovideevidenceoftheirexperiences,suchasusingphotographyandothermedia.Theaimisforstudentstoengageinreflectionby choice,with a senseof purpose and a frequency that allows them tobetterunderstandandrecognizepersonaldevelopmentandaccomplishment.InTOKstudentsexaminethinkinginordertounderstandwhatconstitutesgoodthinkingandalsotorecognizepotentialflawsinthoughtprocesses.Studentsalsothinkaboutwhatthinkingisrequiredinavarietyofsituations,aswellashowthinkingrelatestoemotionalprocessingandintuition.TOKprovidesstudentswithcriticalthinkingskillstodevelopandextendtheirreflections.Forexample,inWOK(waysofknowing)theyconsidertheiremotions,abilitytoreasonandhowtouselanguage.147CPThepersonalandprofessionalskillscourseaimstodevelopreflectiveandlifelonglearnerswhocanadapttodiversesituationsandpartofself-awarenessisreflection.Inthereflectiveproject,thepersonaldevelopmentthemeformsthebasisforself-reflectionandexplorestheskillsrequiredtoorganizeandmanagetime,makedecisionsandmanagechange.Studentsrequireallofthesetocompletethereflectiveprojectsuccessfully.Theyareassessedonengagementandreflection.Thiscriterionassesseshowthestudenthasengagedin discussions with their supervisor in the planning and progress of their research; thestudent’sability toreflectonandrefinetheresearchprocess,andreact to insightsgainedthroughtheexplorationoftheirresearchquestion;andhowwellthestudenthasbeenabletoevaluatedecisionsmadethroughouttheresearchprocessandsuggestimprovementstotheirownworkingpractice.148Through the service learningcomponent, students shouldgainadeeperunderstandingofthemselves,theircommunityandsocietythroughmeaningfulreflection.Studentsdevelopthefollowing skills: learn about learning, enjoy the learning process through purposefulexperiencesandemploydifferentlearningstyles.149Theoverarchingintentionofreflectioninservicelearningincludestheopportunityforstudentsto:

• deepenlearning 146Creativity,activity,serviceguide,InternationalBaccalaureateOrganization2015147DiplomaProgrammeCore:TheoryofKnowledge,InternationalBaccalaureateOrganization2014148ReflectiveProjectGuide,InternationalBaccalaureateOrganization2016 149ServiceLearningGuide,InternationalBaccalaureateOrganization2016

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• considerrelevanceofexperience• explorepersonalandgroupvalues• recognizetheapplicationofknowledge,skillsandattributes• identifystrengthsandareasfordevelopment• gainagreaterunderstandingofselfandothers• placeexperienceinalargercontext• generaterelevantideasandquestions• considerimprovementsinindividualandcollectivechoicesandactions• transferpriorlearningtonewsituations• generateandreceiveconstructivefeedback• developanongoinghabitofthoughtful,reflectivepractice.

In the languagedevelopment course, students are required to reflect on their journey inlanguagedevelopmentandexploretheirgoalsandrequirements inthelanguageportfolio.Reflectioniscentraltobuildingadeepandrichexperienceinlanguagedevelopment.Studentlearningismoreeffectivewhenitisenhancedbyreflection.Reflectionenablesstudentstoexploreskills,strengths,limitationsandareasforfurtherdevelopment.IBPhilosophyInATL,reflectionispartofthinkingskills,whichisoneoutoffivemaincategories.Reflectionisathinkingskill thatplaysaparticularlyessentialrole in learning.Thevalueofstructuredreflection activities in education is widely recognized, and elements are commonlyincorporatedintolearningprogrammesinvariousforms.Theseactivitiesmaybewritten(eg,reflectiveessays,readinglogs,casestudies),oral(eg,presentations,videodiaries,discussion)orartistic/creative (eg,photosorother images capturing scenes that can thenbeused topromote discussion).150 They may also encompass elements of more than one form (eg,studentportfolios).Onlinetoolssuchasblogs(reflectivejournals),wikis(collaborativewebpages), digital stories and podcasts, interactivemicro-blogging and social networking alsooffergreatopportunitiesforreflectiveactivitiesinanIBeducation.Anotherpopular inquiry-basedapproachisthatofproblem-basedlearning(PBL).Themainadvantages of PBL are that it has been found to lead to improvements in informationprocessing, skill proficiency and the development of a variety of skills, including problem-solving,reasoning,teamworkandmetacognition.151TheIBlearnerprofileaimstodevelopstudentswhoare‘inquirers’.Throughtheinquirycycleof understanding and awareness, reflection and action, students engage in reflection andmetacognition,whichcanleadthemfromacademicknowledgetothoughtfulaction,helpingtodeveloppositiveattitudesandasenseofpersonalandsocialresponsibility.152

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CollaborationIBprogrammesacknowledge that learning isa socialactivity. Studentsand teacherscometogether, each with unique life experiences, beliefs, ideas, strengths and weaknesses.Learningistheresultofthesecomplexinteractions.DPDuringCASstudentscontinuetodevelopindividualandsharedresponsibility,andeffectiveteamwork and collaboration. A CAS project involves collaboration between a group ofstudentsorwithmembersofthewidercommunity.Further,studentsundertakeaCASprojectof at least onemonth’s duration that challenges students to show initiative, demonstrateperseverance,anddevelopskillssuchascollaboration,problem-solving,anddecision-making. ServicewithinCASbenefitsallinvolved:studentslearnastheyidentifyandaddressauthenticcommunityneeds,andthecommunitybenefitsthroughreciprocalcollaboration.CPInServiceLearning, students continuedeveloping skillsandknowledgeapplied to real-lifesituations,andthecommunitythroughreciprocalcollaboration.Oneoftheaimsinthiscourseis to develop students into leaders who work collaboratively with others. The learningobjectiveisforstudentstorecognizethebenefitsofworkingcollaboratively.Attheendofthiscourse,studentsshouldbeabletoidentifyandcriticallydiscussthebenefitsandchallengesof collaboration gained through service learning experiences. Issues of responsibility,commitment,communication, independenceand interdependence, leadership, recognizingemotionsandinterpersonalrelationshipscanallbeexplored.In Personal and Professional Skills course, students are also encouraged to workcollaboratively.Partofthecourseisrelationshipmanagementwhichconsistsofcollaboration,emotionalintelligence,conflictstrategies,interpersonalandsocialawareness.IBPhilosophyInATL,collaborationispartofthegroup‘socialskills’,oneofthe5mainATLs.AkeyfocusoftheteachingintheDPisonteamworkandcollaborationanditsoneofthe6mainpedagogicalprinciples.Thisprincipleappliestopromotingteamworkandcollaborationbetweenstudents,butitalsoreferstothecollaborativerelationshipbetweentheteacherandstudents.Teachersshouldprovideexplicitopportunities intheclassroomforstudentstopractiseanddevelop

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theirsocialandcollaborativeskills.Groupformativeassessmenttaskscanprovideanexcellentopportunityandincentiveforstudentstoimprovetheircollaborationskills.CreativityCreativity is amain or sub target learning area in all reviewed documents within the DPprogrammeandasubtargetlearningareainthreeoutofsixdocumentsreviewedwithintheCP.Similarly,itisexpressedasasubtargetlearningareainallrevieweddocumentswithinIBphilosophy.DPCASisorganizedaroundthethreestrandsofcreativity,activityandservicedefinedasfollows.Creativityisaboutexploringandextendingideasleadingtoanoriginalorinterpretiveproductorperformance.Ifstudentsareaccomplishedinacreativeform,forexample,music,paintingoracting,theymaychoosetoextendtheirinvolvementanddeepentheirskilllevel.Withintheirfield,studentscandefinenewchallengesandobjectivestofulfilcreativityinCAS.Someofthespecificactivitiesincludephotography,eventmanagement,tournamentorganization,websitedevelopment,choir,speechanddebateclub,dramaproduction,journalism,makingashortdocumentary,music/band,learninganinstrument,fashionshow,artlessons.153As a part of the extended essay students are expected to show evidence of intellectualgrowth,criticalandpersonaldevelopment,intellectualinitiativeandcreativity.Studentsneedto choose a subject and then topic that interests them and allows them to develop anddemonstratetheirunderstanding,creativityand/ororiginality.154In TOK, imaginationwhich is a part ofways of knowing (WOK), is sometimes viewed in abroaderwayasbeingassociatedwithcreativity,problem-solvingandoriginality.Integratedinarts there is artistic creation which is often a result of personal knowledge requiringimaginationandcreativity.155CPThe reflective project is intended to promote creativity and develop the skills of creativethinking.Thisisalsoincludedinassessmentwhichaimstogainaninsightintothestudents’thinking,their intellectual initiative,andtheircreativitythroughreflectionsonthethoughtandresearchprocess.156IBphilosophy

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IBLearnerProfileaimstodevelopthinkerswhoexerciseinitiativeinapplyingthinkingskillscriticallyandcreativelytorecognizeandapproachcomplexproblems,andmakereasoned,ethicaldecisions.LeadershipandGrowthMindsetarecomparablyrepresentedacrossallrevieweddocuments.Leadership has large contribution to its development at least in one of the revieweddocumentsinbothCPandDPwhileGrowthMindsethasbeenspelledoutasamainlearningarea only in one document within the DP. Within the IB philosophy related documents,GrowthMindset is onlymentioned as a sub target in one out of three documents whileLeadershipdoesnotappearasatargetinanyofthem.LeadershipDPInCAS,itisrecommendedthatschoolsdevelopstudentleadershipwithintheprogrammesothatstudentsbecomeleadersandrolemodelsforothers.Theprinciplethatstudentsshould“own” their personal CAS programmes implies that they should be trusted to fulfil thecommitmentsthattheyhavemade,unlesstheyshowthemselvesunworthyofthattrust.157One of theways students can exercise their leadership is through “breaking the bubble”exercisewhichisanexperiencethattakesstudentsoutintothecommunityinsmallergroupstoinvestigatetheirneeds.Thisbuildsupononschool’sapproachtoservicelearning.Studentscanalso takepart inactionat these sites;however,mostoften this is learningabout realsituations and circumstances and beginning to find a role of how they may respond inpartnershipwiththeseorganizationstomakeauthenticcontributions.Especiallyseniorstudentshavewitnessedandbeeninvolvedinthebasicstepsrequiredtosuccessfullybecomeinvolvedinawiderangeofimportantcommunitysocialprojectssuchasanimal care, urban farming, low-cost housing project, local school language and musicconnections,disabledsportscompetitions,andon-campusdocumentationofsuccesses.ThereisnomentionofLeadershipinCPandIBphilosophyrelateddocuments.

4.2.3Lowcontribution–BottomfourcompetenciesGrowthMindsetDPInDP’s documentFromprinciples into practice there is amention that IBWorld Schoolssupportlifelonglearningbyemphasizing“learninghowtolearn”andhelpingstudentsinteract

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effectively with the learning environments they encounter in schools and beyond, thuspromotingtheautonomyofthelearner.CPIntheservicelearningcourse,personaldevelopmentreferstotheabilitytotapintostudents’self-perceptioninrelationtotheirabilitiesandpotential.Duringtheservicelearningprocess,studentsidentifypersonalinterests,skills,talentsandareasforgrowth.Throughawarenessoftheirstrengths,areasforgrowth,feelingsandthoughts,studentsbecomemoreself-aware,self-confidentandself-directed.158IBPhilosophyWithintheIBphilosophyrelateddocuments,theonlyreferencemadetogrowthmindsetisinthe ATL. It mentioned that establishing that metacognitive awareness creates “growthmindset”,characterizedbythebeliefthatlearningimprovementisafunctionofeffortandstrategyuse,andthatbothofthesethingsarewithinthestudent’scontrol.Curiosity,CourageandResiliencearethecompetencieswiththelowestcontributionacrossbothDPandCPaswellasIBphilosophy.CuriosityisonlymentionedonceasamaintargetfordevelopmentintheDP’sExtendedEssayandassub-targetacrossallthreedocumentsinIBphilosophy.BothcourageandresiliencearerepresentedinasimilarnumberasasubtargetacrossbothDPandCP,whilecourageisrepresentedinastrongerwayasasub-targetwithinIBphilosophythanresilience.CuriosityDPOneofthepedagogicalprinciplesthatunderpinallIBprogrammesisthatofteachingbasedoninquiry.BeinginquirersisoneoftheattributesoftheIBlearnerprofile,wheretheprocessisseenas involvingthedevelopmentofstudents’naturalcuriosity,togetherwiththeskillsneededtoenablestudentstobecomeautonomouslifelonglearners.Itisexpectedthattheywillactivelyenjoylearningandthisloveoflearningwillbesustainedthroughouttheirlives.159Part of learner profile is also being open-minded. Students develop understanding andappreciationoftheirownculturesandpersonalhistories,andareopentotheperspectives,valuesandtraditionsofotherindividualsandcommunities.Theyareaccustomedtoseekingandevaluatingarangeofpointsofviewandarewillingtogrowfromtheexperience.The extended essay contributes to the development of curiosity. It is perhaps the mostinquiry-based activity that studentswill undertake, especially given that it is a completelyopen-endedtask,directedbystudentinterest.Thisisnotcoincidental:theextendedessayis

158ServiceLearningGuide,InternationalBaccalaureateOrganization2016159TheIBLearnerProfile,InternationalBaccalaureateOrganization2013

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intendedtoencouragestudentstoexaminesignificantissuesandareasofresearchthattheypersonallycareaboutinanin-depthandmeaningfulway.160IBphilosophyIn ATL, many categorizations of thinking skills also emphasize related behaviours such ascuriosity, flexibility, posing problems, decision making, being reasonable, creativity, risktaking,andotherbehavioursthatsupportcriticalandcreativethought.161CourageDPTheCASTSMdocumentmentionsthatchallengingoneself isoneofthekeyaspectsoftheprogramme. Students are expected to choose to look for challenges because the IBunderstandsthatitisimperativetohaveasenseofpersonalaccomplishmentandsuccess.Oneofthelearningoutcomesoutlinedinthedocumentisthatstudentsshoulddemonstratethatchallengeshavebeenundertaken,developingnewskillsintheprocess.Theyareexpectedtoparticipateinanexperiencethatposesanappropriatepersonalchallenge;thiscouldbewithneworfamiliarexperiences.CPThe service learningcomponent refers topersonal development as the ability to tap intostudents’self-perceptioninrelationtotheirabilitiesandpotential.Duringtheservicelearningprocess, students identify personal interests, skills, talents and areas for growth. Throughawarenessoftheirstrengths,areasforgrowth,feelingsandthoughts,studentsbecomemoreabletotakerisksandareabletoexplorenewandunfamiliarchallenges.162IBphilosophyRisk-taking is closely linked to the ideaof failingwell (King2009), and it is important thatteacherscreateanatmospherewherestudentsdonotfeelthattheyhavetogetthingsrightfirst time. Regarding learning as a process of gradual improvement through reflection onmistakescanencouragestudentstoaskquestions,takerisks,bemoreadventurousintheirthinking,andbemorecreativewiththeirideas.

160Extendedessayguide,InternationalBaccalaureateOrganization2015161ApproachestoteachingandlearningintheInternationalBaccalaureate(IB)DiplomaProgramme,InternationalBaccalaureateOrganization2014162ServiceLearningGuide,InternationalBaccalaureateOrganization2016

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IntheATLframework,animportantconnectiontohighlightbetweenATLskillsandthelearnerprofileistheconnectionbetweenresilienceandthelearnerprofileattributeofbeing“risk-takers”whichisdefinedasanapproachtounfamiliarsituationsanduncertaintywithcourageand forethought.163Resilience is a vitally importantpartof self-management and includeslearningfrommistakes.SomeoftherevieweddocumentssuggeststhatDPstudentsmightbeunderagreatdealofpressure to succeed,particularly given thehigh stakesnatureofDPassessment,whichcanmakethemreluctanttoeverriskfailure.ResilienceDPOneof the learning outcomesmentioned in the teacher’s supportmaterial forCAS, is anability to show commitment andperseverancebydemonstrating regular involvement andactiveengagementwithCASexperiencesandproject.In the extended essay, through their research, students can learn not only about theirresearch topic, methodology, and critical thinking, but they can also learn importanttransferableskills.Astheextendedessayisanindependenttask,itrequiresstudentstoself-managebydevelopingorganizationandaffectiveskills,includingmindfulness,perseverance,resilienceandself-motivation.CPInprofessionalandpersonalskillsqualities that thecourseencouragesare: responsibility,perseverance, resilience, self-esteem. The theme of personal development addresses thedevelopmentofstudents’confidence,independence,interpersonalskillsandresilienceinavarietyofpersonalandprofessionalsituationsandcontexts.Partofself-managementisalsoanabilitytomanagechange.Throughservicelearningstudentsdevelopandapplyacademicknowledge,personalskillsandsocialskillsinreal-lifesituationsinvolvinginitiative,responsibilityandaccountabilityfortheiractions.Personaldevelopment refers to theability to tap into students’ self-perception inrelationtotheirabilitiesandpotential.Duringtheservicelearningprocess,studentsidentifypersonalinterests,skills,talentsandareasforgrowth.Throughawarenessoftheirstrengths,areasforgrowth,feelingsandthoughts,studentsbecomemoreresilient.164IBphilosophyIn ATL, the development of affective skills is a key part of the development of self-management skills. This can enable students to gain some control over theirmood, their

163ApproachestoteachingandlearningintheInternationalBaccalaureate(IB)DiplomaProgramme,InternationalBaccalaureateOrganization2014164ServiceLearningGuide,InternationalBaccalaureateOrganization2016

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motivationandtheirabilitytodealeffectivelywithsetbacksanddifficulties.ThereisalsoanimportantlinkbetweenthisareaofATLandthecrucialareaofstudenthealthandwell-being,whichhistoricallyhastendedtobe“mostlyseparatedfromotheraspectsofschoollife”.165Resilience appears to be the affective concept that is most inclusive of almost all otherdesirable affective elementsof the successfulDP student. The resilient learner ismindful,persevering,emotionallystableandself-motivated.Throughfocusingondevelopingresiliencewith respect to learning, teachersmay find thatmany other important affective skills arepractisedanddevelopedaswell.

4.3ImportantconsiderationsandrecommendationsThere are several considerations one should keep in mind when reading the results ofcurriculummappingandanalysis.Written,taughtandassessedcurriculumTheresultsreportedherearebasedonanalysisofwhatiscapturedinvariousIBcurriculumdocumentswhichcorrespondsto‘intended’curriculum.Thequestionremainswhetheritisalignedwiththeactualcurriculum,theonethatoccursintheclassroom.Inordertofindoutwhetherthereisanalignmentbetweenintendedandactualcurricula,assessmentandfurtherresearchsuchasschoolvisitsandclassroomobservationswouldhavetobedone.ModernKnowledgeWhilethisreportwasfocusedonareviewofcompetencies,itisalsoimportanttomentionthe knowledge part. Modern disciplines (such as Technology & Engineering, Media,Entrepreneurship&Business,PersonalFinance,Wellness,SocialSciences,etc.) respond topresentandfuturedemandsforknowledge.Also,theycanbeconducivetodevelopmanyofthe important competencies and should be accommodated as a standard part of thecurriculum, not as supplementary or optional activities (and whilst we recognize thatjurisdictionshavenotreachedthisunderstandingyet). IBcouldbeathought-leader inthisfieldandhaveacomparativeadvantageifitwouldincludemoderndisciplinesinitscurricula.Spacedrepetition/habitforming

Spaced repetition is a learning technique166 that incorporates increasing intervals of timebetweensubsequentreviewofpreviouslylearnedmaterial.Itiscommonlyusedincontextsin which a learnermust acquire a large number of items and retain them indefinitely inmemory. Sincemost of the competencies arebetter acquired anddeveloped as part of asequenceof learning (coherenceof curriculum), itmightbe important toconsiderwhat isintended‘spacedrepetition’ofthesecompetenciesthroughoutvariousprogrammes.

165ApproachestoteachingandlearningintheInternationalBaccalaureate(IB)DiplomaProgramme,InternationalBaccalaureateOrganization2014166SeanH.K.Kang(2016),SpacedRepetitionPromotesEfficientandEffectiveLearning:PolicyImplicationsforInstruction,PolicyInsightsfromtheBehavioralandBrainSciences2016,Vol.3(1)12–19

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Furthermore, there is a significant gap, when it comes to competencies, between mereunderstandingandbehaviormodification.Itisthelatterthatmattersmostandbyfar,andthehardestonetoeffectinallofus,requiringdoggednessanddiscipline.

PartV.MainThemesacrossEmployabilitySkillsTeachingandLearningModels

5.1TeachingandLearning:IncreasinglyStudent-Centered

TeachingStudiesacrosstheworldhavedemonstratedtimeandagainthatchangesinteachingpracticeimprove student learning more than any other school-based interventions. While someimportant employability skills—such as digital literacy—can be taught through teacher-directed instruction, many others cannot. To hone their ability to collaboratively solveproblems,forexample,childrenneedteachingandlearningexperiencesthatgivethemspaceto lead, experiment, fail,and try again. Supporting teachers’ capacity to guide children’slearning is an important part of transforming the teaching and learning process. Indeed,leapfroggingineducationrequiresbeingopentonewwaysofteachingandlearningthatmaylookquitedifferentfromwhatcharacterizestheaverageclassroom.167

Therefore,effectiveteachingputsstudentinquiryatthecenterandactivelyengagesstudentsin doing things and thinking about the things they are doing.168 A collection of diversepedagogicalapproachesismotivatedbythisoverarchingprinciple.Theseteachingstrategiesfrequentlyrecognizethatchildrenarenatural-bornlearners,oftencitingtheimportantroleactivestudentinquiryhasindevelopingawiderangeofskillsandcapacities.OneofthemainaimsofallIBprogrammesspelledoutintheIBLearnerProfileistodeveloplearnersthatare‘inquirers’.Theyaresupportedtodeveloptheirnaturalcuriosity,acquiretheskillsnecessarytoconductinquiryandresearchandshowindependenceinlearning.IB’sextendedessayisperhapsthemostinquiry-basedactivitythatstudentswillundertake,especiallygiventhatitis a completely open-ended task, directed by student interest. Through their research,studentscanlearnnotonlyaboutthetopicoftheirresearch,methodologybutalsodevelopcriticalthinking.

Someotherpedagogicalapproachesentailharnessingchildren’sinnateabilitytoplayasawayof helpings students “actively engage in meaningful discovery” and allowing them thefreedomtoexperimentandexploreproblems.IB’sCreativity,Activity,Service(CAS)enablesstudents to enhance their personal and interpersonal development. A meaningful CASprogrammeisajourneyofdiscoveryofselfandothers.Formany,CASisprofoundandlife-

167MargaretHiltonandJamesPellegrino,“EducationforLifeandWork:DevelopingTransferableKnowledgeandSkillsinthe21st-century,”NationalResearchCouncil(Washington,D.C.:TheNationalAcademiesPress,2012),175,168Paniagua,A.andD.Istance(2018),TeachersasDesignersofLearningEnvironments:TheImportanceofInnovativePedagogies,EducationalResearchandInnovation,OECDPublishing,Paris

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changing.Eachindividualstudenthasadifferentstartingpointanddifferentneedsandgoals.

Othersfocusonconnectingclassroomlearningtotheeverydaylivesofstudents, includingpedagogies in which learners participate in real- life activities, such as internships andcommunityprojects,andlearnthroughreflectingonthoseexperiences.Educatorsusearangeof termsto describe these various approaches—including active learning, experientiallearning,andproblem-basedlearning—andeachemphasizesaslightlydifferentpieceoftheteaching and learning process. At IB, students have a chance to experience this methodthroughServiceLearningwhichisthepracticalapplicationofknowledgeandskillstowardsmeetinganidentifiedcommunityneed.Throughservice,studentsatIBcandevelopandapplypersonal and social skills in real-life situations involving decision-making, problem-solving,initiative,responsibilityandaccountabilityfortheiractions

LearningIn1956,BenjaminBloomdevelopedaframeworkforstudentlearningbehaviorstopromotehigherformsofthinkingineducation.Aslearnersmovefrom“lower-order”to“higher-order”skills, theyare able to accomplish increasingly sophisticated learning objectives.169 Thismovement requires students to demonstrate increasing levels of agency in the learningprocess.Arangeofstudiesjustifythisfocusonbothknowledgeandapplication.Ofcourse,higher-ordercognitiveskillsnotonlybuildonlower-orderonesbutalsohelptostrengthenthem. In a recent review of dozens of studies on cognitive development and literacy,researchersunderscorethefactthatcomplexskillsaredeeplyintertwinedwithlower-orderskills.Forreadersandwriterstothrive,theyneedtolearnboththecognitivebasics,suchasdecodingwords,andhigher-orderskills,suchasinference.170Onestudyshowedthattrainingfourth graders inmaking inferences helped improve learning outcomes for poor readers;researcherspositedthatthesereaderslikelystruggledbecausetheylackedthehigher-orderability to draw connections between ideas, not because they lacked basicword-decodingabilities.171This is relevant in the contextof employability skills,which canbedevelopedby allowingstudentstheopportunitytoutilizediverseskillswhilelearningspecificacademiccontent.172Forexample,studentscouldhonetheirabilitytocollaboratewithothersinscienceclassesbyworkinginteamstoinvestigatethehabitatsofdifferentanimals.Integratingthedevelopmentofemployability skills into traditional classroomsubjects—or,aswecall it, teaching “skills 169BenjaminSamuelBloom,TaxonomyofEducationalObjectives:theClassificationofEducationalGoals.Handbook1:CognitiveDomain(NewYork:DavidMcKay,1974);LorinW.Anderson,BenjaminSamuelBloom,andDavidR.Krathwohl,ATaxonomyforLearning,Teaching,andAssessing:ARevisionofBloom’sTaxonomyofEducationalObjectives(NewYork:Longman,2001). 170PeterSmagorinsky,andRichardE.Mayer,“LearningtobeLiterate,”inTheCambridgeHandbookoftheLearningSciences:SecondEdition,ed.KeithSawyer(NewYork,NY:CambridgeUniversityPress,2014)171J.HansenandP.D.Pearson,“AnInstructionalStudy:ImprovingtheInferentialComprehensionofFourthGradeGoodandPoorReaders,”JournalofEducationalPsychology,75,(1983)172MargaretHiltonandJamesPellegrino,“EducationforLifeandWork:DevelopingTransferableKnowledgeandSkillsinthe21st-century,”NationalResearchCouncil(Washington,D.C.:TheNationalAcademiesPress,2012),175,https://doi.org/10.17226/13398.

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through subjects”—is an important strategy for cultivating the breadth of skills andcompetencies. As we move along the leapfrog pathway, education increasingly requireslearnerstocreateandevaluateoriginalworkusingabroadrangeofskills,characterandmeta-learning.

5.2RecognitionofLearning:IncreasinglyIndividualized

In most learning environments, students are grouped into age grades, where they learntogetherandatthesamepace.Thereisalinearprogressionfromonegradetothenext,andstudentsmovetogetherthroughtheirclassesandontothenextgrade.Withinthiscontext,assessmentsarefrequentlyusedtodeterminewhetherastudentcanmovetothenextagegrade—forexample,studentsmayberequiredtorepeatagradeiftheydonotachievepassingmarksintheircourses.However,thissystemlargelytreatsageasoneofthemostimportantdeterminantsofstudentability.Byprovidinglimitedflexibilityinhowwerecognizelearners’abilities,weeraseindividualdifferencebetweenlearners—bothstrugglesandstrengths.Researchfromlearningsciencesconsistentlyshowsthatoneofthemostimpactfulteachingpractices iscontinuouslyassessingstudentability inordertoappropriatelytailoracademiccontent.173Matchingteachingwithstudentneedsisequallyimportantforfosteringsocialandemotional skills.174 Proponents of ability-based progression oftentalk about “mastery-learning” or “competency- based” learning, which are pedagogical approaches widelyexamined in contemporary research.175 Broadly defined, these efforts focuson providingdifferentiated supports to ensure that learners master needed skills, developing novelassessments that can capture this mastery across both academic and interpersonal andintrapersonalskills,anddevisingprogressionmechanismsthatgivestudents thetimetheyeachneedtomasteraskill.176Usefulassessmentpracticesthatcanhelpmoreauthenticallyreflect students’ competencies across a broad range of skills include things such as self-assessmentsandpeerassessments,computerizedadaptivequizzes,andstudentportfolios.Preliminaryevidencesuggeststhattheseapproachestoassessment,whichfocusonwhatalearnercandowithherknowledge,leadtoimprovedlearningoutcomes.177IBisusingarangeofformativeassessmentacrossvarioussubjects.Intheextendedessay,oneof the assessment criteria is critical thinking. Theory of knowledge (TOK) assessment asksstudentstocommunicatetheirunderstandingandperspectiveinbothoralandwrittenform. 173JohnHattie,VisibleLearning:ASynthesisofOver800Meta-AnalysesRelatingtoAchievement(NewYork:Routledge,2009).174MargaretHiltonandJamesPellegrino,“EducationforLifeandWork:DevelopingTransferableKnowledgeandSkillsinthe21st-century,”NationalResearchCouncil(Washington,D.C.:TheNationalAcademiesPress,2012),180,https://doi.org/10.17226/13398.175KeithSawyer,“Conclusion:TheFutureofLearning:GroundingEducationalInnovationintheLearningSciences,”inTheCambridgeCambridgeHandbookoftheLearningSciences:SecondEdition,ed.KeithSawyer(NewYork,NY:CambridgeUniversityPress,2014),726-746.176ChrisSturgis,ReachingtheTippingPoint:InsightsonAdvancingCompetencyEducationinNewEngland(Vienna,VA:Inacol,2016).177SeeBettyMcDonald,“SelfAssessmentandStudent-CentredLearning,”ERIC-EducationResourcesInformationCenter,2012,http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED536980.pdf

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As part of Approaches to Teaching and Learning (ATL), teachers should provide explicitopportunities in the classroom for students to practice and develop their social andcollaborativeskills.Groupformativeassessmenttaskscanprovideanexcellentopportunityandincentiveforstudentstoimprovetheircollaborationskills.5.3PedagogyPedagogyisatthecoreofteachingandlearning.Manyeducationpolicieswillonly leadtobetter learningoutcomes ifthey leadtochanges inteachingandlearningpractices.Atthesametime,astheaimsofeducationsystemshavebecomemoreambitiousaboutwhatyoungpeople should achieve, pedagogy has become more complex. The shift towards learner-centredpedagogiesispartofalargerchangetowardsexpectinghigherlevelsofeducationalattainment.Countriesnowaimtoprepare theiryoungpeople tobecome lifelong learnerswithadeepunderstandingandabroadsetofemployabilityandsocialskills.Thestrongfocuson learners acquiring a diverse set of skills, character and meta-learning requires acorrespondingly strong focus on pedagogy. Acquiring competences such as collaboration,persistence,creativity,andcriticalthinkingdependsfundamentallyonthemodellingoftheteaching and learning itself i.e. pedagogy. If these competences are to be systematicallydeveloped,ratherthanbeinglefttoemergebyaccident,thenpedagogymustbedeliberatelydesignedtofosterthesecompetences.Innovativepedagogiescanplayanimportantroleinthis.178Learner-centred pedagogies, such as inquiry-based learning or collaborative learning, areparticularlysuitableinpromotingtheapplicationofkeyskills,characterandmeta-learning.Importantly,itmustbeunderstoodthatemphasisingthesecompetencesdoesnotcomeattheexpenseofcontentknowledgeandadeepgraspofsubstance.Instead,thedemandingpolicyreality isthatboth21stcenturycompetenciesandadeepunderstandingofcontentknowledgeareneeded. Hence,effectivepedagogy requires teachers tohaveprofessionalexpertise to support the simultaneous pursuit of the deep learning of content and ofambitioustransversalcompetencesthatneedtobepractisedtobeacquired.Professionalexpertiseisbothaboutthepracticalcomplexartofteachingandthedesignoflearningenvironmentstogetthemostfromtheteachingandpedagogy.Pedagogicalexpertiseisexercisedthrough:

• Classroom management (is how teachers keep students organized, attentive andfocused)

• Supportive climate (refers to the student-teacher relationship and is high whenteachersgivepositiveandconstructivefeedback)

• Cognitiveactivation(meansteachingthatfostersstudentcognitiveengagementwiththesubjectmatter)179

178Paniagua,A.andD.Istance(2018),TeachersasDesignersofLearningEnvironments:TheImportanceofInnovativePedagogies,EducationalResearchandInnovation,OECDPublishing,Paris179Paniagua,A.andD.Istance(2018),TeachersasDesignersofLearningEnvironments:TheImportanceofInnovative

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Toimplementthesethreecomponents,teacherscandrawonacombinationofpedagogicalapproaches.Basedontheliteraturereviewandconsultationswithdiverseexperts,theOECD’sInnovativePedagogiesteamhasidentifiedsixbroadclustersofpedagogicalapproaches180:Blendedlearningrethinksestablishedroutinestogetmorefromteaching.Thispedagogicalapproachblendsstudentworkandteachingforunderstanding,adaptstheirsequencinganddrawsheavilyondigitallearningresources.Theaimistobebothmoreengagingandcoherentforlearnersandtofreeteachersfromroutinepracticeinfavourofinteractiveandintensiveclassroomactivities.Therearethreemainformswithinthisclusterofpedagogies:

• Theinverted/flippedclassroom,inwhichstudentsworkonmaterialfirstandonlythenaccesstheteacher(s)topractice,clarifyanddeepenunderstanding.

• Thelab-basedmodel inwhichagroupofstudentsrotatesbetweenaschool laband the classroom with the application of content through face-to-faceinteractionswithteachers.

• ‘In-Class’ blending, in which individual students follow a customised schedulerotatingbetweenonlineandface-to-faceinstruction.

Whenitreliesondigitalresources,itassumesteachershavetheskilltooperatetechnologiesandanunderstandingofcontent,technology,andpedagogyininteraction.

Gamificationbuildsonhowgamescancapturestudentinterestandfacilitatelearning.Playoccupiesanimportantplaceinchildren’slearning,andsupportsintellectual,emotionalandsocial well-being. It opens potential learning experiences, driven by self-motivation andinterest.Gamingineducationtakesdifferentforms(e.g.gamification,game-basedlearning,seriousgames),butinthisreport“gamification”encompassesthepedagogicalcoreofgamingandthebenefitsofplayfulenvironmentsforengagementandwell-being.Therearetwomainpedagogical components: mechanical elements (rapid feedback, badges and goals,participation,andprogressivechallenge)andemotionalelements(narrativesandidentities,collaboration and competition). Gamification has been used successfully in a range ofsubjects,suchasscience,maths,languages,physicaleducation,history,andartanddesign.Gamificationcanfosterself-regulatedlearning,collaboration,explorationandcreativity.Computationalthinkingdevelopsproblem-solvingthroughcomputerscience.This looksatproblemsinwaysthatcomputersdoandthenusesthemtosolvethoseproblems.Itsbasicelementsare:

• Logicalreasoning:analyseanddeduceoutcomes.• Decomposition:breakdownacomplexproblemintosmallerones.

180Paniagua,A.andD.Istance(2018),TeachersasDesignersofLearningEnvironments:TheImportanceofInnovativePedagogies,EducationalResearchandInnovation,OECDPublishing,Paris

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• Algorithms:describeroutinesandcreatestep-by-stepinstructions.• Abstraction:capturetheessenceofaproblem,removingunnecessarydetail.• Patterns:identifycommonsolutionstocommonproblems.

Computationalthinkingtakesprogrammingandcodingasanewformofliteracyandasanewapproach to ICTs. It brings together a language (coding), process (problem-solving), tools(programs), and uses experimentation and learning-by-doing to produce discrete outputs.Inquiryskillsaredevelopedthroughlogicalreasoning,algorithmframinganddecomposition,whileprogrammingandcodingfosterwritingabilities.Experiential learning takes place through active experience, inquiry and reflection. Thisapproach mixes content and process; reduces guidance; promotes engagement; enablesconnectionstobemadebetweenlearningandthewiderenvironment;andgeneratesinsightsfromexperience.Itsfourmaincomponentsare:

• Concrete experience of a task potentially disruptive of students’ existingunderstanding.

• Reflectiveobservation,movingbetweenhypothesesandvalues, andaddressingconflictingideas.

• Abstract conceptualisation, making sense of experiences and reflections andbuildingabstractideas.

• Active experimentation, putting learning into action in a way relevant to thestudent.

Well-knowninnovativepedagogicalapproachesinthisclusterincludeinquiry-basedlearningand service-learning. It also includes more recent approaches such as education forsustainabledevelopmentandoutdoorlearning.Guidanceandscaffoldingplaypivotalroles.Decisions need to be made about which areas can best use experiential learning and toidentifypotentialactivitiesthatfitcourseobjectives.Experientiallearningthusneedstobuildplatformsforactivelearningexperiencesandexplicitlyencouragereflection.Embodied learning connects the physical, artistic, emotional and social. This entails asignificantshiftinmanyeducationsystemsthathavetraditionallyfavouredabstractthinking,theindividualandpassivecontentacquisition.Embodiedpedagogiesdevelopandexploittwonaturaldispositions intheyoung-creativityandexpression–andconsciouslyusecreativeexperiencesandactivestudentinvolvementtopromoteknowledgeacquisition.Threemainapproachesare:

• School-based physical culture: focusing on the role of physical education as anencompassingresourcetoenhancepersonalqualitiesandthinkingskills.

• Arts-integratedlearning:promotingstudentengagementthroughconnectingartswithothersubjects.

• Makerculture:tinkeringandtheconstructionoftoolsandartefacts.

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Embodiedlearningisparticularlysuitedtodevelopcuriosity,sensitivity,multipleperspective-taking,risk-taking,aswellasmetaphoricalthinking,andothermetacognitiveandexecutiveskillsfosteringlearnerachievement.Itdevelopssocio-emotionalskillsandotherfundamentalinterdisciplinary contenteg, gender issues,diversity. It is thereforehighly relevant to21stcenturycompetences.Multiliteraciesanddiscussion-basedteachingaimsatdevelopingculturaldistanceandcriticalcapacitiesandreferstoarangeofpracticesandprinciplesratherthanasinglepedagogicalapproach.Literacyliesattheheartofstudentlearningandcriticalliteraciessituateknowledgeinitspolitical,culturalandauthorialcontext,deconstructingnarrativesthroughinterchangeand collaboration. While class discussion is valuable no matter what the pedagogicalapproach,itbecomescentralinthequestioningofreceivedideas.Thefourmainprinciplesofthispedagogicalclusterare:

• Situatedpracticeusesstudents’ lifeexperiencestocreatemeaningfulclassroomactivitieswithinacommunityoflearners.

• Active teacher interventions scaffolds learning through collaborations betweenteachersandlearnersincomplextasks.

• Criticalframingencouragesconstructivecritiqueanddistancefromwhathasbeenlearnt,sothatstudentscanapplyandextendit.

• Transformed practice encourages students to extend their learning to othersituationsandculturalcontexts.181

Based on the reviewed documents, IB is currently using some of the above-mentionedinnovative pedagogies. There is an integration of ‘experiential learning’ through servicelearningintheCPandinquiry-basedlearningthroughextendedessayintheDP.InquirybasedlearningisalsoemphasizedintheTOK.Anotherformofinnovativepedagogies‘embodiedlearning’isexpressedthroughCASintheDP.Creativity,action,service(CAS)involvesstudentsinlearningthrougharangeofartistic,sporting,physicalandserviceactivities.Studentsareforexampleencouragedtoengageincreative endeavours that move them beyond the familiar, broadening their scope fromconventionaltounconventionalthinking.Thismayincludevisualandperformingarts,digitaldesign,writing,film,culinaryarts,craftsandcomposition.Lastly,‘discussion-basedteaching’isalsotakenseriouslyatIBandiswellintegrated,especiallythrough TOK. Students are asked to submit essays, analytical pieces of work, oralpresentationsanddemonstrateactiveparticipationinclassdiscussions.ItisacoreelementwhichallDiplomaProgrammestudentsundertakeandtowhichallschoolsarerequiredtodevoteatleast100hoursofclasstime.Itisfundamentallyaboutinquiryintotheprocessofknowingratherthanaboutlearningaspecificbodyofknowledge.Atthemoment,thereseems 181Paniagua,A.andD.Istance(2018),TeachersasDesignersofLearningEnvironments:TheImportanceofInnovativePedagogies,EducationalResearchandInnovation,OECDPublishing,Paris

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to be a lack of ‘blended learning’, ‘gamification’ and ‘computational thinking’ pedagogiesappliedintheIB’sCPandDPprogrammesbasedontherevieweddocuments.Certainly,itisnotpossibletoadoptallthepedagogiesbutratheracombinationofsomethatare most suitable for IB programmes. These pedagogies usually have an interdependentrelationship as one skill such as for example collaboration can be achieved and retainedthrough the employment of gamification and blended learning. During the next reviewprocess,theIB’sDPandCPprogrammescouldconsiderseekinganalignmentamongthemostsuitablepedagogiestoeffectivelyenhancefurtherdevelopmentofemployabilityskillsinitscoresubjects.

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ConclusionThereisampleofevidenceallaroundusofthemanychangesthe21stcenturyhasbroughttoourlives.Weliveinamorecompetitive,yetmoreinterdependentworld.Therapidincreaseintherateatwhichtechnologicalchangeisoccurringaroundtheglobecreatesaworldthatisincreasinglyvolatile,uncertain,complex,ambiguous(VUCA)andthushardtopredict.Suchanunpredictablecontextrequiresanincreasedcapabilityforhumanstoengagewithcomplexchallenges, agility to adapt to new situations, along with a diverse set of individualcompetencies.Anincreasednumberofoccupationsinthefuturewillinvolvecomplexproblemsolvingandcreative thinkingand requirecomplexsocial interactions.Facing thechallengesof the21st

centuryrequiresdeliberateefforttocultivateinstudentsthesecompetenciestorespondtotheneedsofthelabourmarket.Theknowledgedimensionmatters,buttheskills,characterandmeta-learningdimensionsare just as importantand thereforeall of themneed tobefosteredforindividualsandsocietiestoprosper.AstheanalysisofcurriculumcontentmappingofCPandDPdemonstrated,therearesomecompetenciesthatarewellintegratedintheexistingintendedcurriculaandothersthatarenot represented sufficiently. The top four competencies that seem to have a largecontribution across both programmes are communication, ethics,mindfulness and criticalthinking.Themiddlefourcompetenciesthathave lesscontributionbutarestillsufficientlycovered in both programmes are metacognition, collaboration, creativity and leadership.There seems to be low contribution in both CP and DP for following four competencies:growthmindset,curiosity,courageandresilience.TheseareimportantcompetenciesrelatedtopositiveacademicandlabourmarketoutcomesandshouldbeexplicitlyintegratedintothecurriculaandintentionallytaughtintheDiplomaandCareer-relatedProgrammes.Innovative pedagogies and changes in teaching practice are an important component indevelopingabovementioncompetenciesinstudents.Tohonetheirabilitytocollaborativelysolveproblems,forexample,childrenneedteachingandlearningexperiencesthatgivethemspace to lead,experiment, fail,and tryagain. Innovativepedagogies suchasgamification,blendedlearningorexperientiallearningamongothersareparticularlyeffectiveindevelopingstudents’ 21st century competencies. It is not possible to adopt all the pedagogies but acombinationofsomethataremostsuitableforIBprogrammeswouldberecommended.y