Hydropolitics:International Water Issues

ITWRM Training Workshop Amman, Jordan

6 November, 2006

Dr. Anthony Turton

6 November, 2006

AWIRU

Objective of this Presentation

• To enable the audience to understand that hydropolitics is an emerging field of studywith relevance to their own areas

• To get a basic theoretical understanding of basic hydropolitics conceptsbasic hydropolitics concepts

• To begin to use those concepts in their areas

• To begin to understand how hydropolitics can be a valuable tool in understanding institutional development in their area

Key Definitions (1a)

• What is hydropolitics?• Hydropolitics is the authoritative allocation of

values in society with respect to water (Turton, 2002:16).

• Values?• What values are considered?

•• What values are considered?• Whose values count the most?

• Allocation?• How is this done?• What institutional arrangement is used?• What is being allocated?• Water or the ecosystem or both?

Key Definitions (1b)

• Authoritative?• Who is the authority?• How is this authority to be enforced?• In a complex basin like the Nile, is there one

supreme authority?• Should there be one supreme authority or a • Should there be one supreme authority or a

cascade of authorities?• If not what limitations should exist on that

authority?• It is the study of who gets what, when, where,

why and how?• It focuses on solutions.

Key Definitions (2a)

• What about the issue of scale?• At what level is the study to be relevant?

• Local• Provincial• National•• National• River Basin• Regional

• Hydropolitics is therefore embedded in issues of scale.• Ask yourself what level of scale are you

dealing with.• Know that other levels of scale exist.

Key Definitions (2a)

• What are the core drivers?• The Stakeholder Mapping exercise in your

IP helps you to start to understand these.• Accurately identifying the core drivers

enables a viable solution to be developed. • What are the key impacts?• What are the key impacts?

• All management solutions have an impact.• Where are they felt?

• These are often remote from the centre of decision-making.

• Who benefits and who pays?• Key to benefit sharing as a solution.

Key Definitions (3a)

• What is a watershed?• This is the geographic feature that defines the

outer limit of a hydrological entity such as a river basin.

• What is a river basin?• What is a river basin?• This is one unit of scale relevant to

hydropolitics, but not the only unit of scale. • It corresponds to IWRM with the river basin

as the fundamental unit of analysis.

Key Definitions (3a)

• But is the river basin the only relevant unit of scale?

• No……• The Problemshed is the place where the

fundamental problem confronting water fundamental problem confronting water resource managers is defined.• It is the place from where the solutions are

sourced.

Key Definitions (4)

• The Problemshed• Water scarcity occurs at the river basin or

sub-basin level• There is no scarcity of water at a global level• There is no scarcity of water at a global level• The Hydrological Cycle tells us this…

Key Definitions (4a)

PRECIPITATIONPRECIPITATION

VAPOUR TRANSPORT

EVAPORATION + TRANSPIRATION

PRECIPITATIONPRECIPITATION

VAPOUR TRANSPORT

EVAPORATION + TRANSPIRATION

EVAPORATION

GROUNDWATER FLOW

PERCOLATION

SURFACERUNOFF

LAKELAND

OCEANS

RIVER

EVAPORATION

GROUNDWATER FLOW

PERCOLATION

SURFACERUNOFF

LAKELAND

OCEANS

RIVER

Geophysics Respects no Political Boundaries

Key Definitions (5)

• When managing water scarcity what do we do?

• We build dams and hydraulic infrastructure to increase assurance of supply.

• We build inter-basin transfers to make more • We build inter-basin transfers to make more water available in a basin that is over-allocated.

• We manage demand through a variety of methods.

Key Definitions (5a)

• We import Virtual Water.• Roughly 1,000 tonnes of water is needed

to grow one tonne of cereal (Allan, 2000)• By importing 1 tonne of cereal we

effectively “import” the benefit of 1,000 tonnes of water into our economytonnes of water into our economy

• This is applicable to all commodities• Raises the issue of comparative

advantage so it is a strategic issue

Key Definitions (6)

• How does water security link up with national security?

• When water scarcity poses a finite limitation to the economic growth potential of a province, country or potential of a province, country or region, there is a tendency for water to be elevated to an issue of high politics.

• This is known as the process of securitization

Key Definitions (6)

• Water resource management gets taken away from the domain of the technocrat and starts to become the domain of the securocrat

• Secrecy becomes the order of the day• Secrecy becomes the order of the day• Knowledge is seen to be power so

information is not shared• Asymmetry in power relations becomes

translated into asymmetry of water resource development and access

Key Definitions (7a)

• Highly securitized river basins tend to have stunted institutional development

• Water becomes a political weapon or tool

• Most vivid example today is the • Most vivid example today is the Jordan River Basin

• Securitization occurs in different levels of intensity

Key Definitions (7b)

• The Nile Basin is securitized but less so than the Jordan

• Under conditions of securitization, everything (including water resource management) becomes subservient to management) becomes subservient to national security interests

• This can be reversed:• South Africa as an example

Key Definitions (8a)

• Desecuritization is a healthy tendency• It fosters institutional development• This institutionalizes the rules of the

game and therefore reduces the conflict potential to manageable levelsconflict potential to manageable levels

• It promotes the sharing of information

Key Definitions (8b)

• This generates learning and creates a movement away from conflict to a cooperative solution

• It allows innovative solutions to be • It allows innovative solutions to be explored by making the pie bigger for all

• Virtual Water trade is one such solution• Interbasin Transfers is another …

Some of the Inter-Basin Transfers sustaining the South African Economy

Key Definitions (8a)

• Desecuritization allows another very important thing to happen….

• Benefit-sharing is a strategic issue in which the pie is made bigger by linking specific issues into a basket of specific issues into a basket of potential benefits

• This is a way of getting buy-in and therefore reducing conflict potential

Key Definitions (8b)

• Benefits consist of a range of elements

• Most authoritative study is the recent Swedish Foreign Ministry report by the Expert Group on Development IssuesExpert Group on Development Issues• Phillips, D., Daoudy, M., Mc Caffrey, S., Öjendal, J.

& Turton, A.R. 2006. Transboundary Water Cooperation as a Tool for Conflict Prevention and Broader Benefit-Sharing. Stockholm: Ministry for Foreign Affairs Expert Group on Development Issues (EGDI). (Available from egdi.secretariat@foreign.ministry.se)

Key Definitions (9a)

• What is a hydropolitical complex?• It is a sub-component of a Regional

Security Complex.• It occurs when water resource

management as an issue is strategic management as an issue is strategic enough to define the actions of the Government towards other riparian states.

Key Definitions (9a)

• It is a unit of analysis defined by the analyst and not the water resource manager.

• It is typically surrounded by a zone of indifference.indifference.

• The Southern African Hydropolitical Complex is one example (Turton).

• The Tigris and Euphrates Hydropolitical Security Complex was the first example ever described (Schulz, 1995)

Regional Security Complexes

Transboundary River Basins in Africa

As a result of our colonial legacy…

Africa has 53 sovereign states…

Sharing 63 transboundary river

basins…

Covering 61% of the surface area…

In which 77% of the human population live…

Containing 93% of the total water…

Africa’s Fundamental Development Constraint

And that is our fundamental

Africa has the lowest

conversion of MAP to MAR in

the world

And that is our fundamental development constraint –hydrological insecurity …

Or what the World Bank calls being hostage to hydrology

High Variability Reduces Hydrological Security

Natural variability in streamflow

reduces hydrological

security

Exacerbating our fundamental development

constraint further…

Hydrological insecurity.

ZAMBIAANGOLA

D. R. C. TANZANIA

MOZABIQUE

MEAN ANNUAL RAINFALL

100200300400500600700800900

10001250150020002500

Mean AnnualRainfall (mm)

0 250 500 km

NAMIBIA

BOTSWANA

SOUTHAFRICA

ZIMBABWE

SWAZILAND

LESOTHO

MALAWI

= 860 mm isohyet

= World average rainfall

SADC Average Annual Rainfall = 948 mm

© Pete Ashton

Perennial River Basins and Dispute Potential

Disputes tend to occur along the transition

between perennial and ephemeral river systems.

They can have negative impacts that undermine

investor confidence.

River Basin Commissions mitigate conflict and

therefore restore investor confidence.

Think “Investor Confidence ” as a strategic

policy objective.

Africa’s Hydrological Future - 2025Endemic water scarcity is closely associated with economic stagnation…

Which can result in political instability…

That makes Africa an unattractive destination unattractive destination

for foreign direct investment…

So a strategic objective in all policy has to be the

management of investor confidence .

So What are We Doing About It?

• It is all about economic development.• And that is about regional integration.• Which in turn is about political organization.• Driven by fundamental geophysical factors such as

local hydrologies, geographies, cultures and histories.•• How do we know this?• The European Union grew from:

• Iron and Steel Agreement• Coal dependence• Energy (Euratom)

• SADC as an African example:• Founding Treaty• Protocol on Shared Watercourses• Harmonized water policy despite different legal systems

What are we observing in the SADC Case?

+veNational Self-Help

This is the trend if you get it right

This is the difficult transition that needs

regional political groupings to structure

Utility

-ve

Time

International Cooperation

This is about learning how to cooperate and getting the

process and incentives right

groupings to structure

Benefit-sharing is a key strategic mindset to have when developing policy

Hydropolitical Complexes in Africa

A hydropolitical complex exists where states share

strategic water resources…

To the extent that inter-state behaviour is influenced in a

discernable way…

Either as a driver of potential Either as a driver of potential conflict…

Or as a driver of cooperation and regional integration.

It is a theoretical construct that exists above the level of the

river basin but beneath a regional political or economic

grouping.

Southern African HPC with

extensive reliance on IBT’s by most developed States

Southern African Hydropolitical ComplexMainland SADC is the ordering structure…

Most well defined HPC in Africa for a variety of

reasons…

High level of harmonization of water policy…

Four most economically developed states have severe water scarcity limitations to

future economic development potential...Southern African

HPCHigh reliance on IBT’s already

with trend to greater reliance in the future...

Congo

Nile

Lake Chad

Congo (DRC)

Tanzania

Angola

Rovuma

Dams and hydraulic infrastructure in the Southern African Hydropolitical

Cuvelai

Kunene

Zambezi

Limpopo

Pungué

BuziSave-Runde

Orange Maputo

Incomati

Umbeluzi

Okavango/Makgadikgadi

Namibia

Botswana

SouthAfrica

Zambia

Zimbabwe

Lesotho

Swaziland

Malawi

Mozambique

250

500

0

Kilometres

N

South Africa and Zimbabwe are listed amongst the top

twenty countries in the world in terms of the

numbers of dams built (WCD 2000)

Hydropolitical Complex

© P Ashton

Congo

Nile

Lake Chad

Congo (DRC)

Tanzania

AngolaRovuma

Water transfers in the Southern African Hydropolitical Complex

Cuvelai

Kunene

Zambezi

Limpopo

Pungué

BuziSave-Runde

Orange Maputo

Incomati

Umbeluzi

Okavango/Makgadikgadi

Namibia

Botswana

SouthAfrica

Zambia

Zimbabwe

Lesotho

Swaziland

Malawi

Mozambique

250

500

0

Kilometres

N

Existing water transfer scheme

Proposed new water transfer scheme

© Pete Ashton

Nile Basin Hydropolitical ComplexNile Basin Initiative is the

ordering structure…

1929 and 1959 Agreement between Egypt and Sudan is

the legal foundation…

This is at odds with contemporary customary international water law…

Nile Basin HPC

international water law…

The Nyerere Doctrine is a key legal and political challenge to the perceived inequity of the

1959 Agreement… The right to transfer water out of

the channel is a fundamental driver of potential dispute.

West African Hydropolitical Complex

ECOWAS is a potential ordering structure…

French law is a potentialordering system…

Largest number of transboundary basins…

West African HPC

Key basins are Niger, Volta and Senegal...

Hydropower is a major stakeholder...

Lake Chad Basin is a driver of regional instability and needs

urgent attention...

North African Hydropolitical Complex

Most isolated and least coherently formed of all

African HPC’s…

Hydrologically linked with the Mediterranean region…

Politically linked to Middle East but also with linkages to East but also with linkages to

Africa…

Groundwater is a major strategic component...

Very little research on this structure so it is largely

unpredictable.

North African HPC

So When Thinking About Policy

• Start off by understanding MENA’s fundamental development constraint as being a very low conversion of MAP to MAR….

• Which is exacerbated by high levels of temporal variability….variability….

• And spatial maldistribution of water.

• Combined these are what the World Bank calls being hostage to hydrology.

• Stated differently a major development constraint is hydrological insecurity.

So When Thinking About Policy

• Think first about the economies that they will sustain.– Gauteng produces 10% of the economic output of

Africa and is 100% reliant on IBT’s.

• These bring growth, prosperity and political • These bring growth, prosperity and political stability to the continent.

• This attracts investor confidence which in turn stimulates growth.

• Combined this creates WE²A³LTH².• So think WE²A³LTH² and make this your strategic

objective in MENA’s high-level policy.

WE²A³LTH² is what it is all about

• W = water security as a foundation for all else.

• E² = energy and education.

• A³ = access to justice, food security and finance.

• L = land tenure as driver of investor confidence.• L = land tenure as driver of investor confidence.

• T = technology that is appropriate to Africa.

• H² = health, both human and ecosystem.

• And consider this be the strategic foundation of all future policy for MENA.

Never forget the strategic Water –Energy Nexus

It takes water to generate energy

It takes energy to move water

But water also stores energy to manage peak demands

The Water Energy Nexus

Bulawayo

Windhoek

GaboronePretoria

Limpopo River Basin

Botswana

Namibia

Mozambique

Zimbabwe

Bulawayo

Windhoek

GaboronePretoria

Limpopo River Basin

Botswana

Namibia

Mozambique

Zimbabwe Southern Africa

already makes

major use of IBT’s

Capital

East London

Port Elizabeth

Durban

Maputo

Gaborone

Orange River Basin

South AfricaCape Town

Atlantic Ocean Indian Ocean

JohannesburgSwaziland

Lesotho

Usuthu – Vaal IBT

Thukela – Vaal IBT

Orange - Fish –Sundays IBT

Lesotho Highlands Water Project

East London

Port Elizabeth

Durban

Maputo

Gaborone

Orange River Basin

South AfricaCape Town

Atlantic Ocean Indian Ocean

JohannesburgSwaziland

Lesotho

Usuthu – Vaal IBT

Thukela – Vaal IBT

Orange - Fish –Sundays IBT

Lesotho Highlands Water Project

Capital cities and centres of growth are situated on watersheds

IBT’s, if correctly planned and managed, mean hydrological security as a foundation for economic growth

and political stability

Think WE ²A³LTH²

AWIRU

Think WE ²A³LTH²

Today the Cold War guns stand silent in Africa.

Having fallen prey to the forces of erosion and changes in the tide of international politics…

As Southern Africa engages in post-conflict reconstruction …

© A R Turton, 1999

The first regional protocol signed when South Africa joined SADC was the Protocol on Shared Watercourse Systems.

reconstruction …

Restoring investor confidence and growing economies.

Thank You

And Remember to Think WE ²A³LTH²

AWIRU

Think WE ²A³LTH²