Hydrogen Infrastructure Expansion: Consumer Demand and ... · performance, lower cost parts 2....
Transcript of Hydrogen Infrastructure Expansion: Consumer Demand and ... · performance, lower cost parts 2....
NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.
Hydrogen Infrastructure Expansion: Consumer Demand and Cost-Reduction Potential
Hydrogen Infrastructure Investment Forum—Palo Alto, California
Dr. Marc MelainaSenior Engineer
April 16, 2014
NREL/PR-5400-61966
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Presentation Overview
• How much do consumers value hydrogen station availability?
• How much will station costs decline with volume?
• What kind of market growth is needed to ensure station cost reductions (and adequate return on investment, or ROI)?
How much do consumers value hydrogen station availability?
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Discrete Choice Consumer Survey• Received ~500 responses
from each city: • Los Angeles, CA• Atlanta, GA• Minneapolis, MN• Seattle, WA
• Two choices:1. Conventional vehicle2. “Alt fuel” vehicle
Results are a “vehicle price equivalent” penalty against the price of a vehicle during the purchase decision.
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Visual Maps Were Used to Convey AvailabilityDiscrete choice algorithm varies coverage variables among 10 choices
Local Regional Interstate
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Results Suggest Value of Stations to Consumers
Results• Lack of stations at the local and regional
level can incur a penalty of $4,000–$6,000 against the vehicle price.
• Lack of stations along interstates between major cities (500+ miles) can also incur a penalty of $4,000–$6,000.
• Sufficient station availability may be comparable to an approximate $5,000–$10,000 per vehicle price reduction.
• Analytic “cost-of-time” models suggest much lower penalties.
How much will station costs decline with volume?
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Quantitative Results from the Hydrogen Station Cost Calculator (HSCC)
HSCC Screenshot
• HSCC was administered anonymously by IDC Energy Insights.
• Results were analyzed by NREL staff to develop a generic station cost equation:• Economies of scale
(station size)• Industry experience
(cumulative installed capacity)• Results for state-of-the-art costs and
three future costs
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Quantitative Results: Capita per Capacity ($/kg/d)
Survey results and recent Energy Commission Awards suggest a 70% reduction in station capital costs by 2017–2020.
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It’s Not Only Volume: Qualitative Workshop Results Indicate “How” to Pursue Cost-Reduction Opportunities
Cost-Reduction Opportunities1. Expand and enhance supply chains
for production of high-performance, lower cost parts
2. Reduce cost of hydrogen compression
3. Develop high-pressure hydrogen delivery and storage components
4. Harmonize/standardize dispensing equipment specifications
5. Develop “type of approvals” for use in permitting
6. Improve information and training available to safety and code officials
7. Develop methods for planning station rollouts and sharing early market information
Full report: http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy13osti/56412.pdf
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Number of Points
Stanardize, streamlineand facilitate permitting
Alternative and improvedstation designs
Financial, policy orpartnership support
Sharing of informationand analysis
Leverage or synergywith existing systemsand resources
Compressionsystems
Infrastructure planning & integration
Standardizestation designs
Increase supplier base
Improve station utilization
Modular Stations Large capacity stations and components
Prioritizing OpportunitiesMarket Readiness Workshop, Feb. 2011
What kind of market growth is needed to ensure station cost reductions (and adequate ROI)?
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Approximately 400,000–800,000 FCEVs Needed by ~2025–2030 to Achieve Cost-Reduction Opportunities
GrowthComparing HSCC results to other
estimates
Assumed demand scenario
Slower growth would result in lower ROI.
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Cluster Strategy Focuses on High-Density Areas of Likely Early Adopters
Early Adopter Metric (EAM)
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Cluster Strategy Focuses on High-Density Areas of Likely Early Adopters
Existing, Planned, and Proposed Station Locations
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How Do Cash Flows Resolve Locally and Regionally?
Regions are based on America 2050 Map:
www.america2050.org
Interactive visualization toolis in development
Cumulative cash flow @ $8/kg
Break even in 2021
Conceptualand example results only
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Summary of Key Points
• Station availability is critical to consumer choice and therefore market success.
• With volume, station capital cost reductions may be on the order of 70% below current costs.
• Volumes (demand) required are on the order of 400,000 to 800,000 FCEVs deployed by 2025–2030.
Questions?
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Characterization of Cost-Reduction Opportunity Priorities
Opportunities clustered and ranked according to workshop attendee votes on priorities
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Number of Points
Stanardize, streamlineand facilitate permitting
Alternative and improvedstation designs
Financial, policy orpartnership support
Sharing of informationand analysis
Leverage or synergywith existing systemsand resources
Compressionsystems
Infrastructure planning & integration
Standardizestation designs
Increase supplier base
Improve station utilization
Modular Stations Large capacity stations and components
1) Station designs, 2), Streamlining of the permitting process,3) Systems planning and analysis
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Infrastructure Expansion Models Have Both Technical Detail and Financial Analysis Capability
• Costs developed with “bottom-up” estimates at the component level, validated with real projects (CEC) and expert surveys
• Detailed spatial and temporal modeling across hydrogen supply chain
• Early adopter consumer data (demographics, etc.)
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New FCEVs
Hydrogen Demand
Refueling Stations
FCEV Garagings
Hydrogen Transmission
Cash Flow Components
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Station Placement Algorithm and Detailed Financial Toolkit
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16,000,000
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Production incentives
Credit card fees
Sales taxes
Income taxes
Depreciation expense
Retail markup (return on equity)
Interest
Selling and administrative
Licensing & permitting
Rent
Property tax and insurance
Maintenance
Labor
Feedstock & utilities
Sales revenue
Early stations placed near early adopter clusters
and network expansion to provide coverage
Detailed financial breakdown, including influence of incentives
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HCC Results Are Consistent With U.S. DOE Models and Estimate from the UC–Davis Rollout Study