Hydrogen for Mobility in South Africa

Hydrogen for Mobility

in South Africa

ANDREW KIRBY

President and CEO OF Toyota South Africa Motors

Apr 13, 2021


Complex Global Problems

Climate Change[GHG, CO2e]

Energy Security Bio hazards

Complex problems require simple and

collaborative solutions!

Images: ref error! Images: ref error! Images: ref error!

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Emergent Global Auto ThemesPowertrain

Diversification

Regulatory

Pull

Raw Materials

Sustainability

BEVs, connectivity & digitalization, FCEVs, and

PHEVs have established themselves as the most

important key trends in the industry since 2017.

Regulators and industry politics driving

technological agendas where subsidy strategies and

tax breaks will be essential instruments.

It is expected that localisation and a country’s

mineral resources will dictate the country’s preferred

powertrain technology.

Sustainability [ESG] is expected to be a key

differentiator.

Adapted: KPMG GAES 2020

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Images: ref error!

Key Auto Trends Projection to 2030

Globally South Africa

Top 5: NEV’s [BEV, FCEV, HV]

Connectivity, growth in Emerging

Countries.

Top 5: NEVs, Connectivity and

Understanding the Mobility

Ecosystem.

KPMG GAES 2020KPMG GAES 2020

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Toyota 2050 Environmental ChallengeTo go beyond zero environmental impact and achieve a positive net impact, Toyota has set itself

six challenges. All these challenges, whether in climate change or resource and water recycling,

are beset with difficulties, however we are committed to continuing toward the year 2050 with

steady initiatives in order to realised sustainable development with society.

2010 2020 2050

CO2

CO2

Veh

icle

Sal

es

Expected shift in mix of powertrains required to achieve 90%

CO2 reduction.

Mass scale electrification

expected after 2020

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Necessity and Diversification of Electric VehiclesElectric vehicles will enable the reduction of CO2e in the mobility sector.

Electric vehicles cover a broad range and need to coexist to the demand of the

market and the availability of Energy Source!

Hybrid Plug-in Hybrid Battery Electric Fuel Cell Electric

Adapted TME

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Criteria to determine the ideal mix of Powertrains

ICE HEV PHEV BEV FCEV

Fuel Saving [Tank to Wheel] Δ O

CO2 Reduction Δ O ~ Subject to WtT CO2

Vehicle Cost O Δ ~ O Δ Δ

Cruising Range Δ ~ O

Recharging frequency Δ ~ Δ

Charging time O Δ

Infrastructure Δ ~ Δ X

Total Evaluation ? ? ? ? ?

This view is based on current real world data and could change over time

Advantageous～×Disadvantageous

There is no single solution and each product needs to be evaluated against the

uniqueness of each country/timeline/energy availability/policy/ infrastructure/

consumer preferences/, etc.

Hydrogen Council, TWIMS 2021, TMC 2019

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Pursuing Zero Emissions – H2 and FCEV’s

Green H2 and FCEV Combination

FCEV

+

Ultimate Green Solution

Zero Emissions Vehicle=

Benefit ExplanationSafety Hydrogen is as safe as petrol and diesel.

Reliability Less moving parts than an ICE.

Energy density Hydrogen is more energy dense than

lithium and LNG.

Range Comparable range to existing ICE vehicles.

Refuelling time Comparable to ICE (5 minutes).

Weight H2 is significantly lighter than a battery pack

and gasoline.

Lowest carbon

footprint (Green H2)

Mining of lithium gives off pollution.

Price In the long-term price of green H2 will be

cheaper than LNG.

Zero CO2 emissions Resolves tank to wheel CO2 issues.

Availability Is in abundance and can be sourced from a

variety of primary energy sources.

Benefits of Hydrogen FCEV

Adapted, Toyota, TWIMS 2021

Green H2 in an FCEV is the Ultimate

Zero Emissions Vehicle.

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Adapted, csnews.com, Toyota


Fuel Cell Production Vehicle – Mirai 2020

The 2020 Mirai performance is comparable to that of ICE and other Electric

Powertrains in terms of range. A symbolic breakthrough for Hydrogen as

an energy source in Mobility!

Equipped with a new fuel cell system that

is high per formance, compact and

lightweight, with a long cruis ing range

Newly developed fuel cell unit (incl. fuel

cells, fuel cell boost converter and

power control unit)

Output

density:5.4kW/L

Maximum

output:128kW（174PS）

Maximum output:

134kW（182PS）/6,940r.p.m.

High-pressure hydrogen tanks

High output motor

Li-Ion Battery

Cruising range per tank (reference value)

Approx. 850 km ＊［G“Executive Package”、G“A Package”、G］

［Z“Executive Package”、Z］Approx.750km＊

toyota.com

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Areas where infrastructure

development

can be expected from early 2015

In operation Planned

Not in operation

Hawaii

JapanCalifornia NY

Scandinavia

Korea

France

UK

China

Germany

California

40 sites expected

by 2018

200 sites by 2025

Northeast states

Project started, aiming

for 100 sites by 2020

Germany

400 sites by 2023

Announced H2 Mobility

Japan

160 sites by 2020

320 sites by 2025

900 sites by 2030

UK

UKH2Mobility:

Plan for 67 sites

Nordic MOU

Developed hydrogen

promotion program in

Nordic countries

H2USA establishment,

aiming at the infrastructure

construction by DoE and

private organizations.

China

100 sites by 2020

350 sites by 2025

1000 sites by 2030

Areas where infrastructure development

can be expected after 2015

World Deployment of H2 Stations

As at 2017 various countries committed to Hydrogen

Infrastructure lead by Japan and China!Hydrogen Council, TMC 2019

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Thermal power

Industrial useCity/homes

Wind power

Chemical plant

Automotive fuel

Electrolysis

Hydrogen

tanks

City/homes

Renewable

energy

Biomass

Sewage treatment

Fossil fuels

Hybrid cars

City/homes Oil refineries/

chemical plants

Hydrogen grid

Energy flow

Electricity Hydrogen Fossil fuels

FCVs /

FC buses

Solar power

HydrogenElectricityConversion

Electricity grid

Battery storage facilities

Power-generator unit

OIL

LNG

High-volume, long-term storage

Hydrogen FCV

EVs/PHVs

Electricity EV

View of Energy Ecosystem

TMNA, Kast 2018

An energy co-existential ecosystem!

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MIDP1995 – 2012

APDP2013 - 2020

South African Automotive Master Plan [SAAM]

2021 – 2035

300K

600K

500K

1,400k

Export Growth & Production Rationalisation

Further Export Growth,

Manufacturing Support

Fully integrated, inclusive and enabling master planIn

du

stry

mat

uri

ty

Time

• Creating certainty geared towards FDI

• Enabling structural reformation

• Driving transformation

• WTO compliant trade related

investment measures

SA Automotive Policy Progression

The progressive automotive policies in South Africa are

testament to strength of pro government/industry

collaboration.

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SAAM

2035 VISIONA globally competitive and transformed

industry that actively contributes to the sustainabledevelopment of South Africa’s productive economy, creating

prosperity for industry stakeholders and broader society

Objectives: 1% of global vehicle production, 60% local content, 100% employment growth,

competitiveness to leading competitor standards, industry transformation, increased value addition

within GVCs

Local Market

Optimisation

1

Regional

Market

Development

2

Localisation

3

Infrastructure

Development

4

Industry

Transformation

5

Technology

and Associated

Skills

Development

6

Supporting institutional environment

Enabling policy post 2020

SAAM Vision ‘35 and 6 pillar Framework

NEV Technology and Technical Competence are scarce in SA with limited

players in the space and limited demand and products currently.

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SA Electric and FCEV Readiness

Drivetrain Infrastructure//Charging/Refuelling Stations

Regulation/Policy

Technology Accessibility/Product Availability

Cost Competence/Skills

Demand/Marketgrowth/Scale

ICE ~ 4,600

HV/PHEV/BEV* Δ-~ 141

Δ+ Δ+ X Δ- Δ-

FCEV** X X X X X X

Mature/Advanced, Δ Infancy × Not Started/Disadvantage

*Under the SAAM the SA Automotive Industry and government are

currently establishing NEV sales targets for 2025 and 2030 for Pass.

Vehicles. This will need to be enabled by subsidy strategies and tax breaks

as essential instruments.

** For FCEV there is currently no firm intentions regarding infrastructure,

regulation, etc. and there is no known demand for FCEV in SA.

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Syste

mC

ost

BEV

Advantage

FCEV

Advantage

BEV

(Battery Capacity)

FCEV

(H2 Tank Capacity)

Electric Powertrains – Positioning of FCEV

Based on current data BEV has cost advantage for shorter

cruising range, while FCEV has cost advantage for mid-to-

long cruising range.

Cruising Range TMC, TWIMS 2021

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Based on available data, FCEV should have cost

parity on long range vehicles with ICE by 2025

[HCV/XHCV/Bus]

FCEV Positioning on Total Cost of Ownership

1. Infrastructure

•BEV had a head start hence will be stronger here.

3. Performance

•Driving range is a key indicator

2. Total Cost of Ownership

[TCO]

Type of

vehicle Usage Range

Year of

parity with

ICE

Year of

parity with

BEV

Small PV Short range 200 km 2035 2050

Large PV (i.e.

SUV) Long range 600 km 2030 2030

LCV Long range 650 km 2030 2025

MCV Short range 300 km 2025 2030

HCV Long range 500 km 2025 2020

XHCV Long range 600 km 2025 2020

Bus Short range 150 km 2025 2040

Bus/Coach Long range 500 km 2025 2025

Key differentiators between BEV vs FCEV.

2. Expected TCO year of parity for FCEV ranges in relation to BEVs and ICE vehicles

TWIMS 2021

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FCEV Positioning on Performance3. Performance Comparison

Performance Indicator FCEV BEV

Passenger Vehicle Toyota Mirai Tesla Model 3

Range 750km – 850km 423 km (568 km for long-range model)

Refuelling time 5 minutes 9 hours (40 minutes for rapid 80% charge)

Power output 134 kw 211 kw

Top speed 175 kph 225 kph

0-100 kph 9 seconds 5.3 seconds

Buss Brand 1 FCEV Brand 1 Elec City BEV

Range 434 km 210 km

Refuelling time 15 minutes 72 minutes


Heavy Truck Brand 2 FCEV Brand 2 BEV

Range 1207 km 563 km

Refuelling time 20 minutes "several hours"


0-100 kph 30 seconds 30 seconds

FCEV’s show better performance over longer range!

TWIMS 2021

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Potential Market in SA for FCEV

The HCV, XHCV and Bus Market in SA is currently ~ 16,000 per annum.

This segment of the market normally operates on fixed and predefined

routes therefore suited to a ‘controlled environment!’

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Total PAS 353,195 360,943 357,717 349,822 243,332

Total LCV 159,316 163,317 159,525 153,221 110,912

Total MCV 8,436 7,890 7,885 8,690 6,735

Total HCV 5,468 5,306 5,374 5,041 4,090

Total XHV 11,816 11,978 13,126 13,350 11,200

Total Bus 1,248 1,082 1,070 931 728

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Toyota's Key Initiatives towards H2 Mobility

1. Passenger Car – Mirai2. Bus3. Truck – Long Range

1. Passenger Car – Mirai2. Toyota Hydrogen Centre [Production

and Refuelling Station by TMCA]

1. Passenger Car – Mirai2. Truck – Long Range [TMNA/Hino US]

1. Passenger Car – Mirai2. Bus3. Modular Generator4. Truck – Long Range [TMNA/Hino]5. Trains and Ships

O O O Δ

O O Δ

O Δ

O O

O = In Market Δ = In Prototype Study

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?

? = Announced

Toyota also leads with 360 FCT patents as at 2020.

7 Necessary Ingredients to realise H2 for

Mobility

Infrastructure

Regulation/

Policy

Technology

/ Product

Access

Cost

Competitive

-ness

Demand/

Developing

Scale

Skills/

Competence

Time to

market

Hydrogen for mobility is complex and requires an appropriately enabled

environment and strong stakeholder will to bring it to market!

How?

Images: ref error!

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Images: ref error!


Developing a H2 Mobility Value Chain

Energy

Source

Energy

generationElectrolysis

Compression Storage Transport Storage Refuelling FCEV

Hydrogen infrastructure will require investments in renewable energy sourcing,

energy generation, hydrogen production, hydrogen storage, hydrogen

transportation and hydrogen refuelling sites.

Adapted gmobility.eu

Infrastructure

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Passenger Vehicle [Mirai]

• Currently available in many countries.

• TMC will consider export destination based on stringent criteria such

as 7 key ingredients specifically Regulation, Policy and Infrastructure.

Toyota SA – FCEV Initiatives to be piloted in SA

Adapted gmobility.eu

• Toyota SA is committed to a greener SA and creating value and thus decided to

investigate the following pilot introductions of selected FCEV’s into the SA.

• Toyota SA will form partnerships with key stakeholders to enable this.

Bus [Europe Caetano]

• Currently available in Europe.

• Similar requirements for export to SA i.e. Regulation, Policy and

Infrastructure, etc.

Heavy Duty Truck [TMC/Hino]

• Currently in prototype development.

The access to these technologies[products] will require a sound value proposition from South Africa that is

ultimately enabled by SA Governments commitment!

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Developing the H2 Mobility Economy RoadmapThe pilot initiatives should provide the much needed answers to the key ingredients of

infrastructure, regulation, technology, demand, cost competitiveness, skills, competence and

time to market. This should define, inform and enable the SA long term roadmap.

Generation

Energy

Source

Green, Blue,

Grey?

Production

Electrolysis

or

Reforming?

Supply Chain

Storage

Compression,

Ground,

Liquefaction?

Transportation

Pipeline, Truck

or Ship?

Utilisation

Transport and Mobility

Passenger cars, LCV, Buses,

Coaches, Heavy Transport

and Long Distances?

Can SA Produce efficiently

at best market cost?

Can SA supply it efficiently and

on appropriate logistics routes?

Can SA create the demand

for FCEV with apt. tax and

subsidy structures?

In the longer term a broader collective and collaborative approach across Government,

Industry and Public should be pursued!

These answers should unlock socio-economic value and reveal SA’s long term commitment to

Hydrogen and be translated into key actions to realise a Hydrogen Mobility Economy in SA.

Adapted Framework: compact.nl/en/articles/hydrogen-fuel-cell-technology-is-an-important-piece-of-the-puzzle-in-an-electric-future-of-mobility/

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Summary and ClosingFCEV technology whilst a compelling solution towards addressing energy security

and climate change, has various limitations and obstacles that need to be

overcome for an FCEV market to launch at necessary scale!

Benefits/Advantages Challenges

Sustainability

Recap of FCEV benefits and advantages and challenges and current limitations

Refuelling time

Performance over

longer ranges

Total Cost of

ownership over

longer rangers

Energy Storage Scalability

Cost to produce Green

H2 + Fuel efficiency

[Well to tank] i.e. Cost

Infrastructure [Well

to Tank]

H2 Mobility

Technical

Competence

CO2 footprint of

Brown and Grey H2

Product access,

availability and market

demand at scale

Government

direction and

regulation

Adapted Framework: compact.nl/en/articles/hydrogen-fuel-cell-technology-is-an-important-piece-of-the-puzzle-in-an-electric-future-of-mobility/

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Hydrogen for Mobility in South Africa

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